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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 6-11页

作者： Haoyu Zhou Pang-Chi Hsu Lin Chen Yitian Qian Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific(10°-20°N,130°E-175°W).The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO,while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM),as suggested by partial correlation analysis *** elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced(weakened)intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm(cold)PMM years,the authors employed a moisture budget *** findings reveal that during warm PMM years,there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern *** increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region,leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective *** a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection *** observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.

关键词： Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation Interannual variability Pacific Meridional Mode Moisture budget analysis

Application of the improved dung beetle optimizer,muti-head attention and hybrid deep learning algorithms to groundwater depth prediction in the Ningxia area,China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 18-23页

作者： Jiarui Cai Bo Sun Huijun Wang Yi Zheng Siyu Zhou Huixin Li Yanyan Huang Peishu Zong Collaborative Innovation center on forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) ZhuhaiChina China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Transportation MeteorologyNanjingChina Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory NanjingChina

Due to the lack of accurate data and complex parameterization,the prediction of groundwater depth is a chal-lenge for numerical *** learning can effectively solve this issue and has been proven useful in the prediction of groundwater depth in many *** this study,two new models are applied to the prediction of groundwater depth in the Ningxia area,*** two models combine the improved dung beetle optimizer(DBO)algorithm with two deep learning models:The Multi-head Attention-Convolution Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory networks(MH-CNN-LSTM)and the Multi-head Attention-Convolution Neural Network-Gated Recurrent Unit(MH-CNN-GRU).The models with DBO show better prediction performance,with larger R(correlation coefficient),RPD(residual prediction deviation),and lower RMSE(root-mean-square error).Com-pared with the models with the original DBO,the R and RPD of models with the improved DBO increase by over 1.5%,and the RMSE decreases by over 1.8%,indicating better prediction *** addition,compared with the multiple linear regression model,a traditional statistical model,deep learning models have better prediction performance.

关键词： Groundwater depth Multi-head attention Improved dung beetle optimizer CNN-LSTM CNN-GRU Ningxia

Arctic sea-ice extent: No record minimum in 2023 or recent years

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 52-55页

作者： Ola M.Johannessen Tor I.Olaussen Nansen Scientific Society BergenNorway Nansen environmental and Remote Sensing center BergenNorway

Arctic sea-ice extent reaches its minimum each year in September. On 11 September 2023 the minimum was 4.969 million square kilometers(***^(2)). This was not a record low, which occurred in 2012, when the minimum was 4.175 ***^(2), 0.794 ***^(2) less than the minimum in 2023. However, the ice extent had decreased by 0.432 ***^(2) compared with 2022. Nevertheless, the summer melting in 2023 was remarkably less than expected when considering the strong heat waves in the atmosphere and ocean, with record temperatures set around the world. In general, there is a high correlation between the long-term decrease in sea-ice extent and the increasing CO_(2) in the atmosphere, where the increase of CO_(2) in recent decades explains about 80% of the decrease in sea ice in September, while the remainder is caused by natural variability.

关键词： Sea ice Arctic Minimum ice climate

Role of the Greenland Sea ice anomaly in the late-spring drought over Northwest China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 1-5页

作者： Yang Liu Huopo Chen Nansen-Zhu international research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University for Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past *** study explored the influence of the preceding Arctic sea ice on the May drought in Northwest China caused by the precipitation *** analysis indicated that when the Greenland Sea ice concentration is abnormally high during February to April,the dry conditions in Northwest China tend to be *** increase of sea ice in the Greenland Sea can excite a meridional circulation,which causes sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic via the sea-air interaction,manifested as significant warm SST anomalies over the south of Greenland and the subtropical North Atlantic,but negative SST anomalies over the west of the *** abnormal SST pattern maintains to May and triggers a zonal wave train from the North Atlantic through Scandinavia and Central Asia to Northwest China,leading to abnormal cyclones in Northwest ***,Northwest China experiences a more humid climate than usual.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Greenland Sea North Atlantic SST Drought Northwest China

Optimizing the key parameter to accelerate the recovery of AMOC under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 39-45页

作者： Haolan Ren Fei Zheng Tingwei Cao Qiang Wang international center for climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjingChina CAS Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of Sciences and Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)QingdaoChina

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)plays a central role in long-term climate variations through its heat and freshwater transports,which can collapse under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing in climate *** studies have suggested that the deviation of model parameters is one of the major factors in inducing inaccurate AMOC *** this work,with a low-resolution earth system model,the authors try to explore whether a reasonable adjustment of the key model parameter can help to re-establish the AMOC after its *** a new optimization strategy,the extra freshwater flux(FWF)parameter is determined to be the dominant one affecting the AMOC’s *** traditional ensemble optimal interpolation(EnOI)data assimilation and new machine learning methods are adopted to optimize the FWF parameter in an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing experiment to improve the adaptability of model parameters and accelerate the recovery of *** results show that,under an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing in millennial simulations,the AMOC will first collapse and then re-establish by the default FWF parameter ***,during the parameter adjustment process,the saltier and colder sea water over the North Atlantic region are the dominant factors in usefully improving the adaptability of the FWF parameter and accelerating the recovery of AMOC,according to their physical relationship with FWF on the interdecadal timescale.

关键词： Recovery of AMOC 4×CO_(2)forcing Key parameter Parameter estimation Data assimilation Machine learning

Leveraging ROTI map derived from Indonesian GNSS receiver network for advancing study of Equatorial Plasma Bubble in Southeast/East Asia

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2025年第1期9卷 101-116页

作者： Prayitno Abadi Ihsan N.Muafiry Teguh N.Pratama Angga Y.Putra Suraina Gatot H.Pramono Sidik T.Wibowo Febrylian F.Chabibi Umar A.Ahmad Wildan P.Tresna Asnawi research center for climate and Atmosphere Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency(BRIN)BandungIndonesia School of Electrical Engineering Telkom UniversityBandungIndonesia Directorate of Laboratory Management Facilities and Science and Technology Park Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency(BRIN)PontianakIndonesia Geophysics Laboratory Master Program in PhysicsUniversitas Gadjah Mada(UGM)YogyakartaIndonesia research center for Space Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency(BRIN)BandungIndonesia Indonesian Geospatial Information Agency(BIG) JakartaIndonesia research center for Photonics Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency(BRIN)Tangerang SelatanIndonesia Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Hokkaido UniversitySapporoJapan

This paper highlights the crucial role of Indonesia’s GNSS receiver network in advancing Equatorial Plasma Bubble(EPB)studies in Southeast and East Asia,as ionospheric irregularities within EPB can disrupt GNSS signals and degrade positioning *** by the Indonesian Geospatial Information Agency(BIG),the Indonesia Continuously Operating Reference Station(Ina-CORS)network comprises over 300 GNSS receivers spanning equatorial to southern low-latitude ***-CORS is uniquely situated to monitor EPB generation,zonal drift,and dissipation across Southeast *** provide a practical tool for EPB research,by sharing two-dimensional rate of Total Electron Content(TEC)change index(ROTI)derived from this *** generate ROTI maps with a 10-minute resolution,and samples from May 2024 are publicly available for further scientific *** preliminary findings from the ROTI maps of Ina-CORS are ***,the Ina-CORS ROTI maps reveal that the irregularities within a broader EPB structure persist longer,increasing the potential for these irregularities to migrate farther ***,we demonstrate that combined ROTI maps from Ina-CORS and GNSS receivers in East Asia and Australia can be used to monitor the development of ionospheric irregularities in Southeast and East *** have demonstrated the combined ROTI maps to capture the development of ionospheric irregularities in the Southeast/East Asian sector during the G5 Geomagnetic Storm on May 11,*** observed simultaneous ionospheric irregularities in Japan and Australia,respectively propagating northwestward and southwestward,before midnight,whereas Southeast Asia’s equatorial and low-latitude regions exhibited irregularities *** sharing ROTI maps from Indonesia and integrating them with regional GNSS networks,researchers can conduct comprehensive EPB studies,enhancing the understanding of EPB behavior across Southeast and East Asia and contributing significantly to ionosphe

关键词： Equatorial Plasma Bubble(EPB) GNSS receivers’network Indonesia Continuously Operating Reference Station(Ina-CORS) ionospheric map Rate of TEC change index(ROTI)map

Thoughts on Dealing with climate Change…As if the Future Matters

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international Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2013年第1期4卷 1-8页

作者： Michael H.Glantz Ilan Kelman Consortium for Capacity Building INSTAARUniversity of ColoradoBoulderCO 80309U.S.A. center for international climate and environmental research–oslo N-0318 OsloNorway

This article uses the need for more inspiration in people to act on climate change as a basis for exploring some thoughts on the societal and environmental challenges of climate change. It aims to provide ways of interpreting what is often presented on climate change without considering how the audience receives that information and might or might not be inspired to take action based on it. Different meanings of “change” are examined in the context of “climate change.” The term “adaptation” is similarly analyzed. Based on the understanding of those terms, four notions are defined and outlined in relation to decision-making for climate change adaptation: Ignorance versus “Ignore-ance,” surprise, foreseeability, and forecasting by analogy. The conclusions explore the interlinkages between society and the environment as well as how to turn lessons identified into lessons that are actually learned in order to be implemented. Achieving inspiration is not straightforward, but without it, the future will be bleak under a changing society and environment.

关键词： forecasting analogy straight

3D tomographic analysis of equatorial plasma bubble using GNSS-TEC data from Indonesian GNSS Network

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2025年第1期9卷 127-136页

作者： Ihsan Naufal Muafiry Prayitno Abadi Teguh N.Pratama Dyah R.Martiningrum Sri Ekawati Yuandhika GWismaya Febrylian FChabibi Gatot HPramono research center for climate and Atmosphere Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency(BRIN)BandungIndonesia Indonesian Geospatial Information Agency(BIG) JakartaIndonesia Dept.of Physics Faculty of ScienceUniversiti Teknologi MalaysiaJohor BahruMalaysia Dept.Earth Planet Sci. Hokkaido UniversitySapporoJapan School of Electrical Engineering Telkom UniversityBandungIndonesia

Equatorial Plasma Bubbles(EPBs)are ionospheric irregularities that take place near the magnetic *** most commonly occur after sunset during the equinox months,although they can also be observed during other *** phenomenon significantly disrupts radio wave signals essential to communication and navigation *** national network of Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)receivers in Indonesia(>30°longitudinal range)provides an opportunity for detailed EPB *** explore this,we conducted preliminary 3D tomography of total electron content(TEC)data captured by GNSS receivers following a geomagnetic storm on December 3,2023,when at least four EPB clusters occurred in the Southeast Asian *** and extracted TEC depletion with a 120-minute running average were then used as inputs for a 3D tomography *** 2D spatial distribution consistently captured the four EPB clusters over *** tomography results were validated through a classical checkerboard test and comparisons with other ionospheric data sources,such as the Global Ionospheric Map(GIM)and international Reference Ionosphere(IRI)*** of the results demonstrates the capability of the Indonesian GNSS network to measure peak ionospheric *** findings highlight the potential for future three-dimensional research of plasma bubbles in low-latitude regions using existing GNSS networks,with extensive longitudinal coverage.

关键词： EPB Indonesian GNSS Network 3D tomography

Arctic Sea Ice and Eurasian climate:A Review

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第1期32卷 92-114页

作者： GAO Yongqi SUN Jianqi LI Fei HE Shengping Stein SANDVEN YAN Qing ZHANG Zhongshi Katja LOHMANN Noel KEENLYSIDE Tore FUREVIK SUO Lingling Nansen-Zhu international research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Nansen environmental and Remote Sensing center/Bjerknes center for climate research climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences Uni research/Bjerknes center for climate research Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology Geophysical Institute University of Bergen/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research

The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades,including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian ***, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including： the variability of Arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the Arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era,as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the Arctic sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response（e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature） to changes in Arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Eurasian climate Arctic Oscillation review

Microenvironmental time-activity patterns in Chongqing,China

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Frontiers of environmental Science & Engineering 2009年第2期3卷 200-209页

作者： Yu ZHAO Shuxiao WANG Gangcai CHEN Fei WANG Kristin AUNAN Jiming HAO Department of environmental Science and Engineering Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Institute of environmental Science and Technology of Chongqing Chongqing 630020China center for international climate and environmental research P O Box 1129 Blindern0318 OsloNorway

An investigation using recall questionnaires was conducted in winter and autumn 2006 to evaluate the time-activity patterns in Chongqing,*** average time spent in seven microenvironments(MEs)including outdoors,transit,living room,bedroom,kitchen,classroom/office,and other indoors were found to be about 3.5,1.1,2.5,9.7,1.4,4.2,and 1.7 h per day,*** to the results of a nonparametric test,the sampling period and day of week were significant for the variation of the time spent in all MEs except for transit and *** time budget was analyzed using a general linear model(GLM),which exhibited significant variability by demographic factors such as gender,age,residence,education,and household income.

关键词： time-activity patterns microenvironment general linear model(GLM) Chongqing China