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A typhoon-induced storm surge numerical model with GPU acceleration based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation grid

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第3期43卷 40-47页

作者： Yuanyong Gao Fujiang Yu Cifu Fu Jianxi Dong Qiuxing Liu National Marine Environmental forecasting center Beijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards forecasting Ministry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China

Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal *** and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important means to reduce storm surge-related *** surge numerical models are important for storm surge *** further improve the performance of the storm surge forecast models,we developed a numerical storm surge forecast model based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation(SCVT)*** model is based on shallow water equations in vector-invariant form,and is discretized by Arakawa C *** SCVT grid can not only better describe the coastline information but also avoid rigid transitions,and it has a better global consistency by generating high-resolution grids in the key areas through transition *** addition,the simulation speed of the model is accelerated by using the openACC-based GPU acceleration technology to meet the timeliness requirements of operational ensemble *** only takes 37 s to simulate a day in the coastal waters of *** newly developed storm surge model was applied to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in the coastal waters of *** hindcast experiments on the selected representative typhoon-induced storm surge processes indicate that the model can reasonably simulate the distribution characteristics of storm *** simulated maximum storm surges and their occurrence times are consistent with the observed data at the representative tide gauge stations,and the mean absolute errors are 3.5 cm and 0.6 h respectively,showing high accuracy and application prospects.

关键词： typhoon-induced storm surge numerical model GPU acceleration unstructured grid spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation(SCVT)

Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Antarctic surface air temperature during 1900 to 2015

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第3期43卷 48-58页

作者： Cuijuan Sui Lejiang Yu Alexey YuKarpechko Licheng Feng Shan Liu Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards forecasting National Marine Environmental Forecasting CenterMinistry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory for Polar science Polar Research Institute of ChinaMinistry of Natural ResourcesShanghai 200136China Finnish Meteorological Institute HelsinkiFI-00101Finland

The importance of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO)in influencing zonally asymmetric changes in Antarctic surface air temperature(SAT)has been ***,previous studies have primarily concentrated on examining the combined impact of the contrasting phases of the AMO and IPO,which have been dominant since the advent of satellite observations in *** study utilizes long-term reanalysis data to investigate the impact of four combinations of+AMO+IPO,–AMO–IPO,+AMO–IPO,and–AMO+IPO on Antarctic SAT over the past 115 ***+AMO phase is characterized by a spatial mean temperature amplitude of up to 0.5℃over the North Atlantic Ocean,accompanied by positive sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific and negative SST anomalies in the extratropical-mid-latitude western Pacific,which are indicative of the+IPO *** Antarctic SAT exhibits contrasting spatial patterns during the+AMO+IPO and+AMO–IPO ***,during the–AMO+IPO period,apart from the Antarctic Peninsula and the vicinity of the Weddell Sea,the entire Antarctic region experiences a warming *** most pronounced signal in the SAT anomalies is observed during the austral autumn,whereas the combination of–AMO and–IPO exhibits the smallest magnitude across all the *** wavetrain excited by the SST anomalies associated with the AMO and IPO induces upper-level and surface atmospheric circulation anomalies,which alter the SAT ***,downward longwave radiation anomalies related to anomalous cloud cover play a crucial *** the future,if the phases of AMO and IPO were to reverse(AMO transitioning to a negative phase and IPO transitioning to a positive phase),Antarctica could potentially face more pronounced warming and accelerated melting compared to the current observations.

关键词： Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO) surface air temperature Antarctic wavetrain Rossby wave source

Three-dimensional thermohaline structure estimation derived from HY-2 satellite data over the Maritime Silk Road and its applications

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第5期43卷 41-53页

作者： Zhiqiang Chen Xidong Wang Xiangyu Wu Yuan Cao Zikang He Dakui Wang Jian Chen Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards forecasting Ministry of Natural ResourcesHohai UniversityNanjing 210024China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numercial Modeling Qingdao Marine Science and Technology CenterQingdao 266061China National Marine Environmental forecasting center Ministry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology Beijing 100029China

Estimated ocean subsurface fields derived from satellite observations provide potential data sources for operational marine environmental monitoring and prediction *** study employs a statistic regression reconstruction method,in combination with domestic autonomous sea surface height and sea surface temperature observations from the Haiyang-2(HY-2)satellite fusion data,to establish an operational quasi-realtime three-dimensional(3D)temperature and salinity products over the Maritime Silk *** products feature a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.25°×0.25°and exhibit stability and *** have demonstrated the accuracy of the reconstructed thermohaline fields in capturing the 3D thermohaline variations through comprehensive statistical evaluations,after comparing them against Argo observations and ocean analysis data from *** results illustrate that the reconstructed fields effectively represent seasonal variations in oceanic subsurface structures,along with structural changes resulting from mesoscale processes,and the upper ocean’s responses to tropical ***,the incorporation of HY-2 satellite observations notably enhances the accuracy of temperature and salinity reconstructions in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and marginally improves salinity reconstruction accuracy in the North Indian Ocean when compared to the World Ocean Atlas 2018 monthly climatology thermohaline *** a result,the reconstructed product holds promise for providing quasi-real-time 3D temperature and salinity field information to facilitate fast decisionmaking during emergencies,and also offers foundational thermohaline fields for operational ocean reanalysis and forecasting *** contributions enhance the safety and stability of ocean subsurface activities and navigation.

关键词： HY-2 satellite observations subsurface structures reconstruction Maritime Silk Road operational thermohaline product

What induced the trend shift of mixed-layer depths in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region in the mid-1980s?

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第1期43卷 11-21页

作者： Shan Liu Jingzhi Su Huijun Wang Cuijuan Sui Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards forecasting National Marine Environmental Forecasting CenterMinistry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA Beijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

An obvious trend shift in the annual mean and winter mixed layer depth(MLD)in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC)region was detected during the 1960–2021 *** trends stopped in mid-1980s,followed by a period of weak *** MLD deepening trend difference between the two periods were mainly distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage,the areas north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land,and the central parts of the South Indian *** newly formed ocean current shear due to the meridional shift of the ACC flow axis between the two periods is the dominant driver for the MLD trends shift distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage and the central parts of the South Indian *** saltier trends in the regions north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land could be responsible for the strengthening mixing processes in this region.

关键词： mixed layer depth trend shift Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC) flow axis

Role of Stokes Drift in Ocean Dynamics Under Typhoon Conditions in the Bohai Sea

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2024年第1期23卷 33-45页

作者： LI Haoqian WAN Kai WANG Menghan DENG Zeng’an CAO Yu North China Sea Marine forecasting center Qingdao 266061China Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environment&Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Qingdao 266061China North China Sea Offshore Engineering Survey Institute Qingdao 266061China School of Marine science and Technology Tianjin UniversityTianjin 300072China South China Sea Marine forecasting center Guangzhou 510006China

The effect of Stokes drift production(SDP),which includes Coriolis-Stokes forcing,Langmuir circulation,and Craik-Lei-bovich vortexes,on the upper ocean during typhoon passage in the Bohai Sea(BS),China,is investigated by using a coupled wave-current *** role of SDP in turbulent mixing and the further dynamics during the entire typhoon period are comprehensively *** results show that SDP greatly increases turbulent mixing at all depths under typhoon conditions by up to seven times that under normal weather *** generally strengthens sea surface cooling by more than 0.4℃,with the maximum reduction in sea surface temperature(SST)at the during-typhoon stage exceeding 2℃,which is approximately seven times larger than that under normal weather *** SDP-induced decrease in current speed can exceed 0.2ms^(-1),and the change in current direction is generally opposite the wind *** results suggest that Stokes drift depresses the effect of strong winds on currents by intensifying turbulent *** layer depth(MLD)is distinctly increased by O(1)during typhoons due to SDP and can deepen by more than *** addition,the continuous effects of SDP on SST,current,and MLD at the after-typhoon stage indi-cate a hysteretic response between SDP and typhoon actions.

关键词： Stokes drift production Langmuir turbulence rurbulent mixing typhoon coupled model

Application of the finite analytic numerical method to a flowdependent variational data assimilation

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第3期43卷 30-39页

作者： Yan Hu Wei Li Xuefeng Zhang Guimei Liu Liang Zhang Tianjin Key Laboratory for Marine Environmental Research and Service School of Marine Science and TechnologyTianjin UniversityTianjin 300072China School of Marine science and Technology Tianjin UniversityTianjin 300072China National Marine Environmental forecasting center Ministry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China

An anisotropic diffusion filter can be used to model a flow-dependent background error covariance matrix,which can be achieved by solving the advection-diffusion *** of the directionality of the advection term,the discrete method needs to be chosen very *** finite analytic method is an alternative scheme to solve the advection-diffusion *** a combination of analytical and numerical methods,it not only has high calculation accuracy but also holds the characteristic of the auto *** demonstrate its ability,the one-dimensional steady and unsteady advection-diffusion equation numerical examples are respectively solved by the finite analytic *** more widely used upwind difference method is used as a control *** result indicates that the finite analytic method has higher accuracy than the upwind difference *** the two-dimensional case,the finite analytic method still has a better *** the three-dimensional variational assimilation experiment,the finite analytic method can effectively improve analysis field accuracy,and its effect is significantly better than the upwind difference and the central difference ***,it is still a more effective solution method in the strong flow region where the advective-diffusion filter performs most prominently.

关键词： finite analytic method advection-diffusion equation data assimilation flow-dependent

The Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Clustering of Measles—China,2005-2022

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China CDC weekly 2024年第27期6卷 665-669页

作者： Qianqian Liu Jiuhong Li Siyu Liu Lin Tang Xiaoqi Wang Aodi Huang Xia Xu Yuexin Xiu Hong Yang Ning Wen Lance Rodewald Fuzhen Wang Zundong Yin National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and forecasting for Infectious Diseases National Immunization ProgramChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina

Introduction:In recent years,the incidence of measles in China has consistently remained below 1 per 100,000 population,yet the disease has not been *** study aims to comprehensively analyze the epidemiological characteristics of measles from 2005 to 2022,identify high-risk populations and areas,and propose targeted ***:We utilized data from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System for our comprehensive *** autocorrelation was employed to examine the spatial clustering of measles,while spatiotemporal scanning analysis was used to detect spatiotemporal clustering to describe measles epidemiology during the study ***:Between 2005 and 2022,732,218 measles cases were reported in ***,the incidence of measles exhibited a downward trend,particularly during the periods of 2008-2011 and *** 2022,the incidence rate reached its historical low at 0.039 per 100,000 *** predominantly affects young *** 2017,global spatial clustering has diminished,although hotspot areas persist in the western ***-temporal scanning identified a high-incidence cluster from 2005 to 2008,comprising 15 provinces in the western,central,and northern regions of ***,from 2016 to 2022,a low-incidence cluster was detected in the southern and central ***:China has made significant progress in measles prevention and *** recent low incidence and absence of substantial spatiotemporal clustering indicate that China is nearing measles ***,there is a continuing need to enhance prevention and control efforts among very young children and in historic incidence hotspots in western ***,improving the diagnosis of vaccine-associated rash illnesses is essential.

关键词： prevention Spatial utilized

Economic forecasting with big data:A literature review

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Journal of Management science and Engineering 2024年第2期9卷 254-270页

作者： Wencan Lin Yunjie Wei Academy of Mathematics and Systems science Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100190China School of Mathematical sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100190China center for forecasting science Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100190China

Big data technology has revolutionized the research paradigm of economic forecasting regardless of the data source,forecasting method,or forecasting *** study evaluates the current literature on economic forecasting using big data and employs bibliometric approaches to offer a comprehensive ***,utilizing the advanced structural variation analysis technique,we can identify papers with transformative potential in this *** study provides valuable suggestions for enhancing scholars'understanding of significant research,novel breakthroughs,and emerging trends in the role of big data in economic forecasting.

关键词： Big data Economic forecasting Bibliometric analysis Structural variation analysis

Segmental nature of the Red River fault revealed by seismic anisotropy and geological structures

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science China Earth sciences 2024年第8期67卷 2423-2443页

作者： Ying LI Yuan GAO School of Earth and Space sciences University of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China Key Laboratory of Earthquake Prediction Institute of Earthquake ForecastingChina Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100036China

As the western boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block(SYB),the Red River fault(RRF)is a major fault that controls deep crustal movement and deformation in the southeast margin of the Tibetan Plateau and regulates middle-lower crustal *** data suggest that the RRF is segmented and exhibits distinct variations in seismicity,velocity structure and crustal deformation from north to *** anisotropy reveals a complex pattern of lateral spatial and vertical stratified distributions.(1)From the perspective of crustal stratification,in the upper crust,the fast wave polarization in the north segment of the RRF is complex and possibly influenced by the Sanjiang lateral collision zone and adjacent faults with varying *** fast wave polarization in the middle segment is in the NW-SE direction,indicating a localized area of closed down or locked up with consistent *** in the south segment,it presents a disordered pattern,signifying complex deep tectonics and stress conditions at the wedged intersection *** the middle-lower crust in the north and south segments of the RRF,the azimuthal anisotropy is strong and consistent with the spatial strike of the weak zone characterized by low-velocity and *** suggests a connection between the anisotropy and the material migration.(2)In the whole crustal scale,the fast wave directions in two sides of the RRF are consistent with the NW-SE tectonic *** indicates that the RRF,as a large fault potentially cutting through the whole crust,strongly controls the surrounding media.(3)In the lithospheric scale,the fast wave polarizations are oriented nearly E-W and independent of the fault strike,consistent with the low P-and S-wave velocity structures and positive radial anisotropy in the upper *** fast wave directions could be related to lithospheric olivine deformation and asthenospheric *** paper suggests a decoupling of deformation between the crust and the lithospheri

关键词： Red River fault Seismic anisotropy Geological structures Lithosphere Fault segmentation