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Changes in extreme high temperature warning indicators over China under different global warming levels

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第6期67卷 1895-1909页

作者： Yuxia ZHANG Ying SUN Ting HU Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China National climate center Laboratory for Climate StudiesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

High temperature warning indicators play a pivotal role in meteorological departments,serving as crucial criteria for issuing warnings that guide both social production and daily life.Despite their importance,limited studies have explored the relationship between different global warming levels and changes in high temperature warning indicators.In this study,we analyze data from 2,419 meteorological stations over China and utilize the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models to examine historical changes in high temperature warning indicators used by the China Meteorological Administration.We evaluate model performance and estimate future changes in these indicators using an annual cycle bias correction method.The results indicate that since 1961,the number of high temperature days(TX35d and TX40d)and length of season(TX40d and TX40l)with daily maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 35℃ and 40℃ have increased over China.The intensity of high temperatures(TXx)has strengthened and the geographical extent affected by high temperatures has expanded.In 2022,the occurrence of 40℃ high temperatures surges,with Eastern China experiencing a two-day increase in TX40d and an extended seasonal length in TX40l by over five days.While CMIP6 models have underestimated the high temperature indictors associated with 35℃ during historical periods,notable difference is not observed between the models and observations for TX40d and TX40l,given their rare occurrence.However,future projections,after bias correction,indicate that the increasing trends for 35℃ and 40℃ high temperature days and length of season become more pronounced than the raw projection,suggesting a more severe increase than that anticipated originally.As global warming intensifies,the high temperature days and length of season are projected to increase non-linearly,while the intensity of high temperatures is expected to increase linearly.For every 1℃ increase in global temperature,the intensity is projected to rise by approximately 1.4℃.The impa

关键词： Extreme high temperatures Meteorological warning CMIP6 Global warming levels Future projection

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Climatic impacts induced by winter wheat irrigation over North China simulated by the nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 197-210页

作者： Jia WU Zhen-Yu HAN Xue-Jie GAO Zheng-Jia LIU National climate Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory for climate studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate Change Research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Quantification of the impact of winter wheat irrigation on the climate and the occurrence of extreme climatic events over North China is crucial for regional adaptation planning.Previous related studies mainly focused on the impact on surface processes;however,few focused on the effects of extreme events using high-resolution nonhydrostatic regional climate models.Here,the 9-km-resolution nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7 was coupled with a crop irrigation scheme and an updated winter wheat irrigation dataset to better simulate irrigation effects.Two experiments were conducted with and without winter wheat irrigation to isolate the effects of irrigation.Results showed that irrigation simulation reduces the model biases in temperature,precipitation,latent heat flux,soil moisture,sensitive heat flux,and top-layer soil moisture.Moreover,it also reduces the bias and increases the correlation with observations obtained in irrigated areas,especially in summer,indicating better representation of irrigation schemes.Winter wheat irrigation tends to cause substantial cooling of the local surface maximum,minimum,and mean air temperatures(by-1.68,-0.34,and-0.79℃,respectively)over irrigated areas of North China,with the largest changes observed in relation to maximum temperature.Additionally,precipitation is found to increase during spring and summer,which is strongly related to water vapor transport in the lower levels of the atmosphere.Further analyses indicated that the number of annual mean hot days decrease(-13.9 d),whereas the number of both comfort days(+10.2 d)and rainy days(days with total precipitation greater than 1 mm:+6.6 d)increase over irrigated areas,demonstrating beneficial feedback to human perception and agriculture.Fortunately,although the heat wave risk increases(number of annual mean heat wave days:+5.8 d),the impact is limited to small areas within irrigated region.Additionally,no notable change was found in terms of heavy rainfall events and precipitation intensity,which might be an undereastimation caused by th

关键词： Nonhydrostatic regional climate model Irrigation effect Extreme events North China

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Winter extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 42-51页

作者： Qing-Quan LI Miao BI Song YANG Qing-Yuan WU Yi-Hui DING Xin-Yong SHEN Xiao-Ting SUN Meng-Chu ZHAO China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for climate Prediction studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China CMA Key Open Laboratory of Transforming climate Resources to Economy Chongqing Institute of Meteorological SciencesChongqing 401147China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for climate Change and Natural Disaster studies Sun Yat-sen University Zhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)and the Arctic are the most sensitive regions to global climate change.However,the interdecadal varibility of winter extreme precipitation over the TP and its linkage with Arctic sea ice are still unclear.In this study,the characteristics and mechisnems of the TP extreme precipitation(TPEP)influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale are studied based on the daily precipitation,monthly sea ice concentration and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1980 to 2018.We found that the dominant mode of the TPEP in winter mostly exhibits a uniform spatial variation on the interdecadal timescale,with an opposite weak variation in the southeastern TP,and the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)before 2002 are larger than that after 2003.The interdecadal variation of TPEP is affected by two teleconnection wave trains regulated by the Barents and Kara Sea ice.In the light ice years,a remarkable positive geopotential height(HGT)anomaly appears over the Barents-Kara Sea and a remarkable negative HGT anomaly is located over the Lake Baikal.Two wave trains originating over the Barents-Kara Sea can be observed.The southern branch forms a wave train through the North Atlantic along the subtropical westerly jet stream,showing a‘+-+-+'pattern of HGT anomalies from Arctic to the TP.Negative HGT anomaly controls the western TP,which creates dynamic and water vapor conditions for the TPEP.The northern branch forms a wave train through the Lake Baikal and the southeast of the TP,showing a‘+-+'HGT anomaly distribution.Positive HGT anomaly controls the southeastern TP,which is not conducive to precipitation in the region.When the SIC in the Barents-Kara Sea increases,the situation is opposite.The above analysis also reveals the reason for the difference in the east-west distribution of the TPEP.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Tibetan Plateau Winter extreme precipitation Rossby wave activity Interdecadal variation

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The Unprecedented Extreme Anticyclonic Anomaly over Northeast Asia in July 2021 and Its Climatic Impacts

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 608-618页

作者： Xingyan ZHOU Riyu LU Laboratory for climate studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

This study investigates the evolution of an extreme anomalous anticyclone(AA)event over Northeast Asia,which was one of the dominant circulation systems responsible for the catastrophic extreme precipitation event in July 2021 in Henan,and further explores the significant impact of this AA on surface temperatures beneath it.The results indicate that this AA event over Northeast Asia was unprecedented in terms of intensity and duration.The AA was very persistent and extremely strong for 10 consecutive days from 13 to 22 July 2021.This long-lived and unprecedented AA led to the persistence of warmer surface temperatures beyond the temporal span of the pronounced 500-hPa anticyclonic signature as the surface air temperatures over land in Northeast Asia remained extremely warm through 29 July 2021.Moreover,the sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Japan/East Sea were extremely high for 30 consecutive days from 13 July to 11 August 2021,persisting well after the weakening or departure of this AA.These results emphasize the extreme nature of this AA over Northeast Asia in July 2021 and its role in multiple extreme climate events,even over remote regions.Furthermore,possible reasons for this long-lasting AA are explored,and it is suggested to be a byproduct of a teleconnection pattern over extratropical Eurasia during the first half of its life cycle,and of the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern during the latter half.

关键词： anomalous anticyclone Northeast Asia surface air temperatures sea surface temperatures

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Will fuel switching ever happened in China’s thermal power sector?The rule of carbon market design

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Frontiers of Engineering Management 2024年第2期11卷 207-230页

作者： Anqi HE Huarong PENG Wuhan University Institute for International studies Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430072China climate Change and Energy Economics Study center Economics and Management SchoolWuhan UniversityWuhan 430000China Collaborative Innovation center for Emissions Trading System by Ministry of Education and Hubei Provincial Government Hubei University of EconomicsWuhan 430200China

o assess the effectiveness of China’s emissions trading scheme(ETS)in facilitating energy structure optimization,we constructed a fuel-switching model utilizing data from 1067 generating units under the Chinese ETS framework.The model simulates the fuel-switching price in China’s thermal power sector,taking into account various allowance allocation strategies.The results show the following:1)Thermal power plants will transition from coal to gas if the current ETS auction rate surpasses 26%.2)Furthermore,in scenarios where the ETS operates independently,a transition will occur if the carbon allowance market is entirely auction-based and the carbon price attains 119.50 USD/tCO_(2).3)In a collaborative scenario involving both the ETS and a gas feed-in tariff subsidy,a carbon price of 9.39 USD/tCO_(2)will effect a transition from coal to gas,provided both the auction ratio and subsidy price are maximized.

关键词： ETS thermal power plant fuel switching allowance allocation method feed-in tariff subsidy

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A Tri-mode of Mock-Walker Cells

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 671-679页

作者： Han QIN Ji NIE Zhiyong MENG Laboratory for climate and Ocean-Atmosphere studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key Laboratory Foshan 528061China

This work uses cloud-resolving simulations to study mock-Walker cells driven by a specified sea surface temperature(SST).The associated precipitation in the mock-Walker cells exhibits three different modes,including a single peak of precipitation over the SST maximum(mode 1),symmetric double peaks of precipitation straddling the SST maximum(mode 2),and a single peak of precipitation on one side of the SST maximum(mode 3).The three modes are caused by three distinct convective activity center migration traits.Analyses indicate that the virtual effect of water vapor plays an important role in differentiating the three modes.When the SST gradient is large,the virtual effect may be strong enough to overcome the temperature effect,generating a low-level low-pressure anomaly below the ascending branch of the Walker cell off the center.The results here highlight the importance of the virtual effect of water vapor and its interaction with convection and large-scale circulation in the Walker circulation.

关键词： Walker circulation cloud-resolving simulation virtual effect

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Accurate Shortwave Radiation Simulation with a Two-Layer Aerosol Model in Xinjiang Region

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 69-87页

作者： Guan HUANG Yonghang CHEN Qiong LIU Pengtao WANG Qianshan HE Qing HE Shuai LI Weiling SHAO Ting FAN School of Tourism&Research Institute of Human Geography Xi’an International Studies UniversityXi’an 710128 center for Silk Road and Eurasian Civilization studies Xi’an International Studies UniversityXi’an 710128 College of Environmental Science and Engineering Donghua UniversityShanghai 201620 Shanghai Meteorological Service Shanghai 200030 Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health Shanghai 200030 Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration Institute of Desert MeteorologyUrumqi 830002 Xinjiang climate Centre Xinjiang Meteorological ServiceUrumqi 830002

To harness the rich solar energy resources in Xinjiang Region of Northwest China,this study tries to address the issue of lack of downward surface shortwave radiation(DSSR)observations and the need to improve the accuracy of satellite retrieval and numerical simulation of DSSR under varied sky and meteorological conditions.(1)A two-layer aerosol model specific to Xinjiang was developed to capture the vertical distributions of aerosols based on multiple data sources including lidar,GPS sounding,ground meteorological observations,and profiles from the ECMWF reanalysis version 5(ERA5)data.The results show that the ERA5/PBLH(planetary boundary layer height)and ERA5/ALH(aerosol layer height)could be used to establish the two-layer aerosol model and characterize the vertical distribution of aerosols in Xinjiang Region.(2)Using the Santa Barbara Discrete Atmospheric Radiative Transfer(SBDART)model,a localized inverse model of clear-sky DSSR was established.After parameter adjustment and using the optimal combination of input parameters for DSSR simulation together with the two-layer aerosol model,the model-simulated DSSR(DSSRSBD)under clear-sky conditions improved significantly compared to the initial results,with all fitting indices greatly improved.(3)In addition,the study demonstrated that the impact of the two-layer aerosol model on DSSR was more pronounced under dust conditions than clear-sky conditions.(4)Using the localized clear-sky DSSR inversion model and its required parameters,simulations were also conducted to capture the spatiotemporal distribution of DSSR under clear-sky conditions in Xinjiang from 2017 to 2019.The annual average DSSR_(SBD)under clear-sky conditions in Xinjiang during 2017–2019 was 606.78 W m^(-2),while DSSR from CERES(DSSR_(CER))under the same conditions was generally higher(703.95 W m^(-2)).(5)It is found that satellite remote sensing products experienced data loss in high-altitude snow areas,where numerical simulation technology could serve as a valuable complement.

关键词： downward surface shortwave radiation(DSSR) aerosol vertical distribution Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System(CERES) Santa Barbara Discrete Atmospheric Radiative Transfer(SBDART) Xinjiang

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Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE Ke FAN Huijun WANG Fei LI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center and Bjerknes Centre for climate Research Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： model democracy model independence model performance model weighting scheme wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice

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Investigation of HO_(2) uptake mechanisms onto multiple-component ambient aerosols collected in summer and winter time in Yokohama,Japan

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第3期137卷 18-29页

作者： Jun Zhou Yukiko Fukusaki Kentaro Murano Tania Gautam Yu Bai Yoshimi Inomata Hiroaki Komatsu Mayuko Takeda Bin Yuan Min Shao Yosuke Sakamoto Yoshizumi Kajii Institute for Environmental and climate Research Jinan UniversityGuangzhou 511443China Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation forEnvironmental Quality Guangzhou 511443China Graduate School of Global Environmental studies Kyoto UniversityKyoto606-8501Japan Yokohama Environmental Science Research Institute Yokohama Kanagawa 221–0024Japan Department of Chemistry University of AlbertaAlbertaEdmonton T6G 2G2Canada Graduate School of Human and Environmental studies Kyoto UniversityKyoto 606-8501Japan Kanagawa Environmental Research center Kanagawa 254-0014Japan center for Regional Environmental Research National Institute for Environmental StudiesIbaraki305-8506Japan

The heterogeneous loss of HO_(2)radicals onto ambient aerosols plays an important role in tropospheric chemistry.However,sparse investigation of the dominating parameters controlling the HO_(2)uptake coefficients onto ambient aerosols(γHO_(2))has largely hindered the application of the measuredγHO_(2)to the global spatial prediction.Here we induced an offine method using LFP-LIF technique to measure the kinetics of HO_(2)uptake onto ambient aerosols collected in summertime and wintertime in Yokohama city,a regional urban site near Tokyo,Japan.By controlling the dominating parameters which infuenceγHO_(2),we were able to investigate the detailed HO_(2)uptake mechanism.We characterized the chemical composition of the collected ambient aerosols,including organics,inorganics,transition metals ions,etc.and modeledγHO_(2)using different mechanisms.Results show thatγHO_(2)increased with the increase in RH,and the aerosol states(“dry”or wet/aqueous)have large effects onγHO_(2).With fixed RH and aerosol chemical composition,γHO_(2)was highly dependent on pH and inversely correlated with[HO_(2)]_0.By combing the measuredγHO_(2)values with the modeled ones,we found that both the HO_(2)self-reaction and transition metal-catalyzed reactions should be accounted for to yield a single parameterization to predictγHO_(2),and different chemical compositions may have collective effects onγHO_(2).Results may serve for extending theγHO_(2)values measured at one observation site to different environmental conditions,which will help us to achieve more accurate modeling results concerning secondary pollutant formation(i.e.,ozone).

关键词： HO_(2)uptake kinetics Offine method Impacting factors Mechanism

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Toward a comprehensive hypothesis of oxygen-evolution reaction in the presence of iron and gold

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Journal of Energy Chemistry 2024年第2期89卷 172-183,I0005页

作者： Negah Hashemi Jafar Hussain Shah Cejun Hu Subhajit Nandy Pavlo Aleshkevych Sumbal Farid Keun Hwa Chae Wei Xie Taifeng Liu Junhu Wang Mohammad Mahdi Najafpour Department of Chemistry Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences(IASBS)Zanjan 45137-66731Iran center for Advanced Mössbauer Spectroscopy Mössbauer Effect Data CenterDalian Institute of Chemical PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesDalian 116023LiaoningChina Key Lab of Advanced Energy Materials Chemistry(Ministry of Education) Renewable Energy Conversion and Storage CenterCollege of ChemistryNankai UniversityTianjin 300071China Advanced Analysis center Korea Institute of Science and TechnologySeoul 02792Republic of Korea Institute of Physics Polish Academy of SciencesWarsaw 02-668Poland National and Local Joint Engineering Research center for Applied Technology of Hybrid Nanomaterials Henan UniversityKaifeng 475004HenanChina center of climate Change and Global Warming Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences(IASBS)Zanjan 45137-66731Iran Research center for Basic Sciences&Modern Technologies(RBST) Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences(IASBS)Zanjan 45137-66731Iran

This study investigates the effects of Fe on the oxygen-evolution reaction(OER)in the presence of Au.Two distinct areas of OER were identified:the first associated with Fe sites at low overpotential(~330 mV),and the second with Au sites at high overpotential(~870 mV).Various factors such as surface Fe concentration,electrochemical method,scan rate,potential range,concentration,method of adding K_(2)Fe O_(4),nature of Fe,and temperature were varied to observe diverse behaviors during OER for Fe O_(x)H_(y)/Au.Trace amounts of Fe ions had a significant impact on OER,reaching a saturation point where the activity did not increase further.Strong electronic interaction between Fe and Au ions was indicated by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy(XPS)and electron paramagnetic resonance(EPR)analyses.In situ visible spectroscopy confirmed the formation of Fe O_(4)^(2-)during OER.In situ Mossbauer and surfaceenhanced Raman spectroscopy(SERS)analyses suggest the involvement of Fe-based species as intermediates during the rate-determining step of OER.A lattice OER mechanism based on Fe O_(x)H_(y)was proposed for operation at low overpotentials.Density functional theory(DFT)calculations revealed that Fe oxide,Fe-oxide clusters,and Fe doping on the Au foil exhibited different activities and stabilities during OER.The study provides insights into the interplay between Fe and Au in OER,advancing the understanding of OER mechanisms and offering implications for the design of efficient electrocatalytic systems.

关键词： DFT calculation Fe/Au electrocatalysis Mechanism Oxygen evolution Water oxidation

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