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Infectious Disease modelling 2020年第1期5卷 309-315页

作者： Julien Arino Stéphanie Portet Department of Mathematics&Data Science NEXUS University of ManitobaCanada Centre for Disease modelling Canada canadian covid-19 mathematical modelling task force Canada

An SL1L2I1I2A1A2R epidemic model is formulated that describes the spread of an epidemic in a *** model incorporates an Erlang distribution of times of sojourn in incubating,symptomatically and asymptomatically infectious *** properties of the model are explored,with focus on properties important in the context of current covid-19 pandemic.

关键词： covid-19 mathematical model Erlang distribution Asymptomatic infections

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Projections of the transmission of the Omicron variant for Toronto,Ontario,and Canada using surveillance data following recent changes in testing policies

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Infectious Disease modelling 2022年第2期7卷 83-93页

作者： Pei Yuan Elena Aruffo Yi Tan Liu Yang Nicholas HOgden Aamir Fazil Huaiping Zhu Laboratory of mathematical Parallel Systems(LAMPS) Centre for Diseases ModellingDepartment of Mathematics and StatisticsYork UniversityTorontoONCanada Public Health Agency of Canada(PHAC) OttawaONCanada

At the end of 2021,with the rapid escalation of covid19 cases due to the Omicron variant,testing centers in Canada were *** alleviate the pressure on the PCR testing capacity,many provinces implemented new strategies that promote self testing and adjust the eligibility for PCR tests,making the count of new cases *** designed a novel compartmental model which captures the new testing guidelines,social behaviours,booster vaccines campaign and features of the newest variant *** better describe the testing eligibility,we considered the population divided into high risk and non-highrisk *** model is calibrated using data from January 1 to February 9,2022,on cases and severe outcomes in Canada,the province of Ontario and City of *** conduct analyses on the impact of PCR testing capacity,self testing,different levels of reopening and vaccination coverage on cases and severe *** results show that the total number of cases in Canada,Ontario and Toronto are 2.34(95%CI:1.22e3.38),2.20(95%CI:1.15e3.72),and 1.97(95%CI:1.13e3.41),times larger than reported cases,*** current testing strategy is efficient if partial restrictions,such as limited capacity in public spaces,are *** more people to have access to PCR reduces the daily cases and severe outcomes;however,if PCR test capacity is insufficient,then it is important to promote self ***,we found that reopening to a pre-pandemic level will lead to a resurgence of the infections,peaking in late March or April *** and adherence to isolation protocols are important supports to the testing policies to mitigate any possible spread of the virus.

关键词： PCR testing Self-testing Booster dose Social behavior mathematical model covid-19 Omicron Exit strategy

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mathematical modeling of the dynamics of covid-19 variants of concern:Asymptotic and finite-time perspectives

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Infectious Disease modelling 2022年第4期7卷 581-596页

作者： Adriana-Stefania Ciupeanu Marie Varughese Weston C.Roda Donglin Han Qun Cheng Michael Y.Li Department of Mathematics and Department of Statistics University of ManitobaWinnipegManitobaR3T 2N2Canada Analytics and Performance Reporting Branch Alberta HealthEdmontonAlbertaCanada Department of mathematical and Statistical Sciences University of AlbertaEdmontonAlbertaT6G 2G1Canada

The covid-19 pandemic has seen multiple waves,in part due to the implementation and relaxation of social distancing measures by the public health authorities around the world,and also caused by the emergence of new variants of concern(VOCs)of the SARS-Cov-2 *** the covid-19 pandemic is expected to transition into an endemic state,how to manage outbreaks caused by newly emerging VOCs has become one of the primary public health *** mathematical modeling tools,we investigated the dynamics of VOCs,both in a general theoretical framework and based on observations from public health data of past covid-19 waves,with the objective of understanding key factors that determine the dominance and coexistence of *** results show that the transmissibility advantage of a new VOC is a main factor for it to become ***,our modeling study indicates that the initial number of people infected with the new VOC plays an important role in determining the size of the *** results also support the evidence that public health measures targeting the newly emerging VOC taken in the early phase of its spread can limit the size of the epidemic caused by the new VOC(Wu et al.,2139Wu,Scarabel,Majeed,Bragazzi,&Orbinski,Wu et al.,2021).

关键词： covid-19 pandemic Variants of concern mathematical modeling Coexistence and replacement of variants Public health measures

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Immunogenicity, safety, and reactogenicity of heterologous covid-19 primary vaccination incorporating mRNA, viral-vector, and protein-adjuvant vaccines in the UK (Com-COV2): a single-blind, randomised, phase 2, non-inferiority trial

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四川生理科学杂志 2021年第10期43卷 1819-1819页

作者： Arabella S V Stuart Oxford Vaccine Group Department of Paediatrics University of Oxford Oxford UK Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust Oxford UK Statistics Modelling and Economics Department UK Health Security Agency London UK Immunisation and Countermeasures Division National Infection Service UK Health Security Agency London UK Public Health Scotland Glasgow Scotland UK UK Health Security Agency Porton Down Salisbury UK Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine Liverpool UK Department of Infection Immunity and Cardiovascular Disease University of Sheffield Sheffield UK Department of Infection and Tropical Medicine Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust Sheffield UK The Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust Newcastle upon Tyne UK Translational and Clinical Research Institute Newcastle University Newcastle UK NIHR Southampton Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust Southampton UK Faculty of Medicine and Institute for Life Sciences University of Southampton Southampton UK School of Population Health Sciences and School of Cellular and Molecular Medicine University of Bristol Bristol UK Department of Infection and NIHR BRC Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust London UK MRC Clinical Trials Unit University College London London UK Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics Nuffield Department of Medicine University of Oxford Oxford UK Oxford NIHR—Biomedical Research Centre Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust Oxford UK

Background:Given the importance of flexible use of different covid-19 vaccines within the same schedule to facilitate rapid deployment,we studied mixed priming schedules incorporating an adenoviral-vectored vaccine(ChAdOx1 nCoV-19[ChAd],AstraZeneca),two mRNA vaccines(BNT162b2[BNT],Pfizer-BioNTech,and mRNA-1273[m1273],Moderna)and a nanoparticle vaccine containing SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein and Matrix-M adjuvant(NVX-CoV2373[NVX],Novavax).

关键词： Pfizer schedule COV

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