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Climatic impacts induced by winter wheat irrigation over North china simulated by the nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 197-210页

作者： Jia WU Zhen-Yu HAN Xue-Jie GAO Zheng-Jia LIU National climate Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory for climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Quantification of the impact of winter wheat irrigation on the climate and the occurrence of extreme climatic events over North china is crucial for regional adaptation *** related studies mainly focused on the impact on surface processes;however,few focused on the effects of extreme events using high-resolution nonhydrostatic regional climate ***,the 9-km-resolution nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7 was coupled with a crop irrigation scheme and an updated winter wheat irrigation dataset to better simulate irrigation *** experiments were conducted with and without winter wheat irrigation to isolate the effects of *** showed that irrigation simulation reduces the model biases in temperature,precipitation,latent heat flux,soil moisture,sensitive heat flux,and top-layer soil ***,it also reduces the bias and increases the correlation with observations obtained in irrigated areas,especially in summer,indicating better representation of irrigation *** wheat irrigation tends to cause substantial cooling of the local surface maximum,minimum,and mean air temperatures(by-1.68,-0.34,and-0.79℃,respectively)over irrigated areas of North china,with the largest changes observed in relation to maximum ***,precipitation is found to increase during spring and summer,which is strongly related to water vapor transport in the lower levels of the *** analyses indicated that the number of annual mean hot days decrease(-13.9 d),whereas the number of both comfort days(+10.2 d)and rainy days(days with total precipitation greater than 1 mm:+6.6 d)increase over irrigated areas,demonstrating beneficial feedback to human perception and ***,although the heat wave risk increases(number of annual mean heat wave days:+5.8 d),the impact is limited to small areas within irrigated ***,no notable change was found in terms of heavy rainfall events and precipitation intensity

关键词： Nonhydrostatic regional climate model Irrigation effect Extreme events North china

Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast china Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model Forecasts for 2006-2021

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 453-468页

作者： Yiqiu YU Jie WU Yihe FANG Chunyu ZHAO Zongjian KE Yitong LIN Liaoning Provincial climate Centre Liaoning Provincial Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Key Opening Laboratory for Northeast china Cold Vortex Research China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Panjin National climate Observatory Panjin124000China china Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Jilin Provincial climate Centre Jilin Provincial Meteorological AdministrationChangchun130062China

As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia,the Northeast china cold vortex(NCCV)substantially influences weather and climate in this *** far,systematic assessment on the performance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried *** on the Beijing climate Centre(BCC)and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal *** results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the seasonal variations in the intensity,active days,and spatial distribution of NCCVs;however,the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the *** analysis shows that the differences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S ***,in the deterministic forecasts,BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4-5(5-6)pentads,and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1-2 pentads longer than that of individual *** the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities,BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 11 days,respectively;both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events,with better performance in winter than in *** results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

关键词： Northeast china cold vortex(NCCV) predictability sub-seasonal to seasonal(S2S)prediction deterministic forecast probabilistic forecast

ResoNet:Robust and Explainable ENSO Forecasts with Hybrid Convolution and Transformer Networks

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1289-1298页

作者： Pumeng LYU Tao TANG Fenghua LING Jing-Jia LUO Niklas BOERS Wanli OUYANG Lei BAI Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory Shanghai 200072China Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory Hangzhou 310002China institute for climate and Application Research(ICAR) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Technical University of Munich Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPotsdam 14473Germany

Recent studies have shown that deep learning(DL)models can skillfully forecast El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events more than 1.5 years in ***,concerns regarding the reliability of predictions made by DL methods persist,including potential overfitting issues and lack of ***,we propose ResoNet,a DL model that combines CNN(convolutional neural network)and transformer *** hybrid architecture enables our model to adequately capture local sea surface temperature anomalies as well as long-range inter-basin interactions across *** show that ResoNet can robustly predict ENSO at lead times of 19 months,thus outperforming existing approaches in terms of the forecast *** to an explainability method applied to ResoNet predictions of El Niño and La Niña from 1-to 18-month leads,we find that it predicts the Niño-3.4 index based on multiple physically reasonable mechanisms,such as the recharge oscillator concept,seasonal footprint mechanism,and Indian Ocean capacitor ***,we demonstrate for the first time that the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña development can be captured by *** results could help to alleviate skepticism about applying DL models for ENSO prediction and encourage more attempts to discover and predict climate phenomena using AI methods.

关键词： deep learning ENSO CNN transformer

Physical mechanism of the rapid increase in intense and long-lived extreme heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere since 1980

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Science china Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2103-2121页

作者： Yuqing WANG Wen ZHOU Chunzai WANG Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and climate of the MOE Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Key Laboratory for Polar Science of the MNR Polar Research Institute of ChinaShanghai 201209China State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China Global Ocean and climate Research Center South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China

Since 1980,both the intensity and duration of summer heatwaves in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have significantly increased,leading this region to become a critical area for a significant increase in the frequency of intense and long-lived extreme *** found that stronger and more persistent high-pressure systems and lower soil moisture before the events were the main drivers of intense and long-lived extreme heatwaves in western Europe and the middle and high latitudes of North ***,in eastern Europe and Siberia,lower cloud cover before events is also a main driver of this type of extreme heatwave,in addition to the above *** factors are coupled with each other and can change heatwave intensity and duration by influencing surface radiation processes during *** the self-organizing map classification method,we found that 6 weather patterns with increased frequency,intensity,and duration were the main dynamic reasons leading to the increase in intense and long-lived extreme heatwaves after *** addition,the decrease in summer average soil moisture in most areas of the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the decrease in average cloud cover in eastern Europe and Siberia are found to be the main thermodynamic reasons leading to the increase in these extreme heatwaves.

关键词： High intensity Long duration Extreme heatwaves High pressure system Soil moisture Cloud cover

The source of Double ITCZ induced by the SST bias over the tropical western Pacific as reflected in CAS-ESM2 Model

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Science china Earth Sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1604-1615页

作者： Jinning TONG Fei ZHENG Jiangbo JIN Ruowen YANG Jiang ZHU Qingcun ZENG Department of Atmospheric Sciences Yunnan UniversityKunming 650091China International Center for climate and Environment Science Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

“Double ITCZ”is a common precipitation bias over the tropical Pacific in current climate models and Earth system models,but the reasons for its formation are still worth exploring and *** this study,we adopted the second version of Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model(CAS-ESM2),by comparing a set of sea surface temperature(SST)bias correction experiments over the tropical Pacific,to explore the possible mechanism of SST bias on inducing the“Double ITCZ”from the perspective of the climatic annual mean bias in the coupled *** revealed that the simulated climatic annual mean SST bias over the tropical Pacific can affect the bias of latent heat flux through the saturation specific humidity,and the bias of latent heat flux can further affect that of vertical velocity of humid air by the condensation release mechanism,and finally modulate the simulated bias in ***,through the inter-comparison between different experiments,it is found that the source of Double ITCZ might mainly come from the annual mean SST bias over the tropical western Pacific through the proposed air-sea coupled process of“SST-saturated specific humidity-latent heat flux-vertical velocity-precipitation”,indicating a possible way on reducing the couple biases in models over the tropical Pacific to improve the accuracy of CAS-ESM2 for climate simulation.

关键词： SST bias Double ITCZ Nudging SST CAS-ESM2

Will the 2022 compound heatwaveedrought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 547-556页

作者： Ai-Qing FENG Qing-Chen CHAO Lu-Lu LIU Ge GAO Guo-Fu WANG Xue-Jun ZHANG Qi-Guang WANG china Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China china institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100038China china Meteorological Administration Training Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic ***,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal *** integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were *** findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial *** July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,*** 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by *** towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the *** findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.

关键词： Compound extreme event Joint return period Drought Heatwave climate change Yangtze River Basin

Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1539-1558页

作者： Yanxin ZHENG Shuanglin LI Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE Lingling SUO Department of Atmospheric Science CMA-CUG Joint Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological HazardsChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China institute of Atmospheric Physics and climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory Yichang 443099China Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for climate Research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), china. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

关键词： triple-nested downscaling Three Gorges Reservoir area consecutive rainfall events geological hazards projection

Winter extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第4期15卷 42-51页

作者： Qing-Quan LI Miao BI Song YANG Qing-Yuan WU Yi-Hui DING Xin-Yong SHEN Xiao-Ting SUN Meng-Chu ZHAO china Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China CMA Key Open Laboratory of Transforming climate Resources to Economy Chongqing Institute of Meteorological SciencesChongqing 401147China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Sun Yat-sen University Zhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)and the Arctic are the most sensitive regions to global climate ***,the interdecadal varibility of winter extreme precipitation over the TP and its linkage with Arctic sea ice are still *** this study,the characteristics and mechisnems of the TP extreme precipitation(TPEP)influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale are studied based on the daily precipitation,monthly sea ice concentration and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1980 to *** found that the dominant mode of the TPEP in winter mostly exhibits a uniform spatial variation on the interdecadal timescale,with an opposite weak variation in the southeastern TP,and the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)before 2002 are larger than that after *** interdecadal variation of TPEP is affected by two teleconnection wave trains regulated by the Barents and Kara Sea *** the light ice years,a remarkable positive geopotential height(HGT)anomaly appears over the Barents-Kara Sea and a remarkable negative HGT anomaly is located over the Lake *** wave trains originating over the Barents-Kara Sea can be *** southern branch forms a wave train through the North Atlantic along the subtropical westerly jet stream,showing a‘+-+-+'pattern of HGT anomalies from Arctic to the *** HGT anomaly controls the western TP,which creates dynamic and water vapor conditions for the *** northern branch forms a wave train through the Lake Baikal and the southeast of the TP,showing a‘+-+'HGT anomaly *** HGT anomaly controls the southeastern TP,which is not conducive to precipitation in the *** the SIC in the Barents-Kara Sea increases,the situation is *** above analysis also reveals the reason for the difference in the east-west distribution of the TPEP.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Tibetan Plateau Winter extreme precipitation Rossby wave activity Interdecadal variation

The Unprecedented Extreme Anticyclonic Anomaly over Northeast Asia in July 2021 and Its Climatic Impacts

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 608-618页

作者： Xingyan ZHOU Riyu LU Laboratory for climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

This study investigates the evolution of an extreme anomalous anticyclone(AA)event over Northeast Asia,which was one of the dominant circulation systems responsible for the catastrophic extreme precipitation event in July 2021 in Henan,and further explores the significant impact of this AA on surface temperatures beneath *** results indicate that this AA event over Northeast Asia was unprecedented in terms of intensity and *** AA was very persistent and extremely strong for 10 consecutive days from 13 to 22 July *** long-lived and unprecedented AA led to the persistence of warmer surface temperatures beyond the temporal span of the pronounced 500-hPa anticyclonic signature as the surface air temperatures over land in Northeast Asia remained extremely warm through 29 July ***,the sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Japan/East Sea were extremely high for 30 consecutive days from 13 July to 11 August 2021,persisting well after the weakening or departure of this *** results emphasize the extreme nature of this AA over Northeast Asia in July 2021 and its role in multiple extreme climate events,even over remote ***,possible reasons for this long-lasting AA are explored,and it is suggested to be a byproduct of a teleconnection pattern over extratropical Eurasia during the first half of its life cycle,and of the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern during the latter half.

关键词： anomalous anticyclone Northeast Asia surface air temperatures sea surface temperatures