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Variation of Dust in Northern China and Its Reproduction in BCC-ESM1 since 1980

Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第5期37卷 617-631页

作者： Yumeng ZHOU Tongwen WU Jie ZHANG Yong ZHANG Yanwu ZHANG He ZHAO Weihua JIE Yang ZHOU Kalli FURTADO Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China earth system modeling and prediction centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Sichuan Climate Center/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu 610072China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Meteorological Observation centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology Nanjing 210044China Met Office Hadley centre Exeter EX13PBUnited Kingdom

In this paper,we explore the possible causes and mechanisms for the variation of dust in northern China from 1980to 2014 using the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2(MERRA-2)data,observational data,and BCC-ESM1(Beijing Climate Center earth system Model version 1)simulation *** important dust centers are identified in China:one in the Taklamakan Desert in southern Xinjiang Region and the other in the Badain Jaran Desert in western Inner Mongolia *** centers display distinct seasonal variations,with high dust concentration in spring and summer and low in autumn and ***-ESM1 is able to generally capture the main spatial and temporal characteristics of dust in northern *** the MERRA-2 reanalysis data and BCCESM1 simulation data show a decreasing trend in spring dust,which is evident during 1980–2000 and 2001–*** analysis based on daily mean dust loads and wind fields from MERRA-2 and BCC-ESM1 indicates that dusty weather in North China may be mainly caused by transport of the dust,especially that from the central and western Inner Mongolia Plateau during the prior 0–2 days,through the westerly winds from the upstream“dust core”region(38°–45°N,90°–105°E).This is one of the important paths for dust to move into North *** weakened westerly wind in the lower troposphere in this“dust core”region may be responsible for the reduction of spring dust in North China.

关键词： dust aerosols Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) earth system models

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Impacts of a Large-scale Adaptive Blending Scheme for cma-MESO on Regional Forecasts-A Case Study of Typhoon Haima

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2021年第4期27卷 330-345页

作者：冯家莉高彦夏昕马玉龙孙健李源陈冬梅万齐林 Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Weather Research Center for Monitoring Warning and Forecasting/Shenzhen Institute of Meteorological Innovation ShenzhenGuangdong 518045 China cma earth system Modelling and prediction centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China

Large-scale atmospheric information plays an important role in the regional model for the forecasts of weather such as tropical cyclone(TC).However,it is difficult to be fully represented in regional models due to domain size and a lack of observation data,particularly at sea used in regional data *** analysis has been developed and implemented in regional models to reintroduce large-scale information from global model to regional *** of the impact of this large-scale blending scheme for the Global/Regional Assimilation and prediction system(cma-MESO)regional model on TC forecasting is limited and this study attempts to further progress by examining the adaptivity of the blending scheme using the two-dimensional Discrete Cosine Transform(2D-DCT)filter on the model forecast of Typhoon Haima over Shenzhen,China in 2016 and considering various cut-off *** showed that the error of the 24-hour typhoon track forecast can be reduced to less than 25 km by applying the scale-dependent blending scheme,indicating that the blending analysis is effectively able to minimise the large-scale bias for the initial *** improvement of the wind forecast is more evident for u-wind component according to the reduced root mean square errors(RMSEs)by comparing the experiments with and without blending ***,the higher equitable threat score(ETS)provided implications that the precipitation prediction skills were increased in the 24h forecast by improving the representation of the large-scale feature in the cma-MESO ***,significant differences of the track error forecast were found by applying the blending analysis with different cut-off wavelengths from 400 km to 1200 km and the track error can be reduced less than by 10 km with 400 km cut-off wavelength in the first 6h *** highlighted that the blending scheme with dynamic cut-off wavelengths adapted to the development of different TC systems is ne

关键词： blending analysis tropical cyclone track forecast tropical cyclone typhoon large-scale feature regional model

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Light from space illuminating the polar silk road

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International Journal of Digital earth 2022年第1期15卷 2028-2046页

作者： Xiao-Ming Li Yujia Qiu Yacheng Wang Bingqing Huang Haiming Lu Min Chu Han Fu Fengming Hui International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals BeijingPeople’s Republic of China Key Laboratory of Digital earth Science Aerospace Information Research InstituteChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingPeople’s Republic of China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingPeople’s Republic of China Space Star Technology CO. LTDBeijingPeople’s Republic of China COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers CO. LTDGuangzhouPeople’s Republic of China cma earth system modeling and prediction centre (CEMC) BeijingPeople’s Republic of China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW) BeijingPeople’s Republic of China State Key Laboratory of Space-Ground Integrated Information Technology Beijing Institute of Satellite Information EngineeringBeijingPeople’s Republic of China School of Geospatial Engineering and Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)ZhuhaiPeople’s Republic of China

The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice has been reminding us the significant impacts caused by global ***,the other side of the coin is that this opens a window to utilize the Arctic sea routes in the summer seasons,bringing remarkable economic benefits for ocean transportation between Asia and ***,commercial vessels with low ice classes must tackle substantial environmental challenges in the Arctic sea routes,particularly those caused by variable sea ice,even in the melting ***,the science-based support for shipping safety in the Arctic sea routes is being given more *** satellite remote sensing technology plays a critical role in environmental monitoring in the *** paper reviews state-of-the-art satellite observations on monitoring sea ice and potential applications on supporting shipping activities in the Arctic ***,we introduced a recently developed system based on satellite observations to support the safe transportation of Chinese cargo vessels in the Arctic northern sea route,demonstrating the efforts by both the science and business communities to promote the development of the polar silk road.

关键词： Arctic northern sea route earth observation digital earth sustainable development

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RESEARCH ON THE INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITIES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THEIR IMPACTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2018年第4期24卷 395-420页

作者：黄荣辉皇甫静亮武亮冯涛陈光华 Center for Monsoon system Research (CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) College of earth Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences cma-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate prediction Studies Institute for Climate and Global Change ResearchSchool of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University

In this paper, we mainly summarize and review the progresses in recent climatological studies(by CMSR,IAP/CAS and some associated domestic and international institutions) on the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of monsoon troughs and their impacts on tropical cyclones and typhoons(TCs) geneses over the western North Pacific Ocean. The climatological characteristics of monsoon troughs and four types of circulation patterns favorable to TCs genesis over the western North Pacific Ocean in summer and autumn are given in this paper. It is also shown in this paper that the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean has obvious interannual and interdecadal variabilities. Especially, it is revealed in this paper that the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean influence the TCs genesis not only through the impact on distributions of the vorticity in the lower troposphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere, the water vapor in the mid-and lower troposphere and the vertical shear of wind fields between the upper and lower troposphere over the western North Pacific Ocean, but also through the dynamical effects of the transition between convectively coupled tropical waves and providing disturbance energy. Besides, some climatological problems associated with TCs activity over the western North Pacific Ocean that need to be studied further are also pointed out in this paper.

关键词： monsoon trough interannual variability interdecadal variability tropical cyclone typhoon

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Resilience Building and Collaborative Governance for Climate Change Adaptation in Response to a New State of More Frequent and Intense Extreme Weather Events

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2023年第1期14卷 162-169页

作者： Huiling Ouyang Xu Tang Renhe Zhang Alexander Baklanov Guy Brasseur Rajesh Kumar Qunli Han Yong Luo Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai200438China Fudan Development Institute Fudan UniversityShanghai200433China Integrated Research on Disaster Risk(IRDR)International centre of Excellence(ICoE)on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health Fudan UniversityShanghai200438China Science and Innovation Department World Meteorological Organization(WMO)CH1211GenevaSwitzerland Max Planck Institute for Meteorology 20146HamburgGermany Research Applications Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderCO80301USA Integrated Research on Disaster Risk(IRDR)−International Programme Office(IPO) Beijing100094China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for earth system modeling and Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China

The weather conditions of the summer of 2022 were very unusual,particularly in Eastern Asia,Europe,and North *** devasting impact of climate change has come to our attention,with much hotter and drier conditions,and with more frequent and intense flooding *** extreme events have reached a dangerous level,increasingly threatening human *** interconnected risks caused by these extreme disaster events are triggering a chain effect,forcing us to respond to these crises through changes in our living environment,which affect the atmosphere,the biosphere,the economy including the availability of energy,our cities,and our global ***,we have to confront the abnormal consequences of untypical,rapid changes of extreme events and fast switches between extreme states,such as from severe drought to devastating *** this new situation,it is crucial to improve the adaptation capacity of our societies in order to reduce the risks associated with climate change,and to develop smarter strategies for climate ***-quality development must be science-based,balanced,safe,sustainable,and climate-resilient,supported by the collaborative governance of climate mitigation and *** article provides some recommendations and suggestions for resilience building and collaborative governance with respect to climate adaptation in response to a new planetary state that is characterized by more frequent and severe extreme weather events.

关键词： Climate change adaptation Collaborative governance Extreme weather events Resilience building

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CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS: APPLICATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2019年第4期25卷 421-436页

作者：田洪军李泽椿王栋梁王斌 Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory Shanghai 200030 China National Meteorological centre Beijing 100081 China Shanghai Typhoon Institute CMAShanghai 200030 China State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of ScienceBeijing 100029 China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for earth system modeling Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084 China

Considering the feature of tropical cyclones(TCs) that strong positive vorticity exists in the lower layers of troposphere, this study proposed to use vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function to find the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP), which was largely different from previous studies using total energy of perturbed forecast variables. The CNOP was obtained by an ensemble-based approach. All of the sensitive areas determined by CNOP with vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function for the three cases were located over the TC core region and its vicinity. The impact of the CNOP-based adaptive observations on TC forecasts was evaluated with three cases via observational system simulation experiments(OSSEs). Results showed obvious improvements in TC intensity or track forecasts due to the CNOP-based adaptive observations, which were related to the main error source of the verification area, i.e.,intensity error or location error.

关键词： conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations tropical cyclone intensity track

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Early Flood Warning for Linyi Watershed by the GRAPES/XXT Model Using TIGGE Data

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2012年第1期26卷 103-111页

作者：徐精文张万昌郑子彦矫梅燕陈静 College of Resources and Environment Sichuan Agricultural University Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for earth Observation and Digital earth Chinese Academy of Sciences China Meteorological Administration National Meteorological Center CMA

Early and effective flood warning is essential for reducing loss of life and economic damage. Three global ensemble weather prediction systems of the China Meteorological Administration （cma）, the European centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF）, and the US National Centers for Environmental prediction （NCEP） in THORPEX （The Observing system Research and Predictability Experiment） In- teractive Grand Global Ensemble （TIGGE） archive are used in this research to drive the Global/Regional Assimilation and prediction system （GRAPES） to produce 6-h lead time forecasts. The output （precipita- tion, air temperature, humidity, and pressure） in turn drives a hydrological model XXT （the first X stands for Xinanjiang, the second X stands for hybrid, and T stands for TOPMODEL）, the hybrid model that combines the TOPMODEL （a topography based hydrological model） and the Xinanjiang model, for a case study of a flood event that lasted from 18 to 20 July 2007 in the Linyi watershed. The results show that rainfall forecasts by GRAPES using TIGGE data from the three forecast centers all underestimate heavy rainfall rates; the rainfall forecast by GRAPES using the data from the NCEP is the closest to the obser- vation while that from the cma performs the worst. Moreover, the ensemble is not better than individual members for rainfall forecasts. In contrast to corresponding rainfall forecasts, runoff forecasts are much better for all three forecast centers, especially for the NCEP. The results suggest that early flood warning by the GRAPES/XXT model based on TIGGE data is feasible and this provides a new approach to raise preparedness and thus to reduce the socio-economic impact of floods.

关键词： TIGGE GRAPES flood warning XXT rainfall-runoffprocess

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prediction of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High in Summer without Strong ENSO Forcing

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第1期35卷 101-112页

作者： Chaofan LI Riyu LU Nick DUNSTONE Center for Monsoon system Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Met Office Hadley centre Exeter EX13PBUK

The western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) is one of the deterministic predictors of the East Asian summer climate, and a better prediction of the WNPSH favors more reasonable forecast of the East Asian summer climate. This study focuses on seasonal prediction of the WNPSH during neutral summers without strong El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) forcing, and explores the associated predictable sources, using the one-month lead time retrospective forecasts from the Ensembles-Based predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts(ENSEMBLES) project during 1960–2005. The results indicate that the ENSEMBLES atmosphere–ocean–land coupled models exhibit considerable prediction skill for the WNPSH during neutral summers, with successful reproduction of the WNPSH in the majority of neutral summers. The anomalous WNPSH in neutral summers, which corresponds to cyclonic/anticyclonic anomalies in the lower troposphere, is highly correlated with an east–west dipole local sea surface temperature(SST) distribution over the tropical WNP, suggesting an intimate local air–sea coupling. Further diagnosis of the local SST–rainfall relationship and surface heat flux indicates that the anomalous local SST plays an active role in modulating the variation of the WNPSH during neutral summers, rather than passively responding to the atmospheric change. The local SST anomalies and relevant air–sea coupling over the tropical WNP are reasonably well reproduced in the model predictions, and could act as primary predictable sources of the WNPSH in neutral summers. This could aid in forecasting of the East Asian rainband and associated disaster mitigation planning.

关键词： western North Pacific subtropical high seasonal forecast neutral year air–sea interaction

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Improved decadal climate prediction in the North Atlantic using EnOI-assimilated initial condition

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Science Bulletin 2017年第16期62卷 1142-1147页

作者： Min Wei Qingquan Li Xiaoge Xin Wei Zhou Zhenyu Han Yong Luo Zongci Zhao Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for earth system modeling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Joint Center for Global Change Studies Beijing 100875China National Meteorological Information Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China

Decadal prediction experiments of Beijing Climate Center climate system model version 1.1(BCCCSM1.1) participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) had poor skill in extratropics of the North Atlantic, the initialization of which was done by relaxing modeled ocean temperature to the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation(SODA) reanalysis data. This study aims to improve the prediction skill of this model by using the assimilation technique in the initialization. New ocean data are firstly generated by assimilating the sea surface temperature(SST) of the Hadley centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature(Had ISST) dataset to the ocean model of BCC-CSM1.1 via Ensemble Optimum Interpolation(EnOI). Then a suite of decadal re-forecasts launched annually over the period 1961–2005 is carried out with simulated ocean temperature restored to the assimilated ocean *** between the re-forecasts and previous CMIP5 forecasts show that the re-forecasts are more skillful in mid-to-high latitude SST of the North Atlantic. Improved prediction skill is also found for the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation(AMO), which is consistent with the better skill of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC) predicted by the re-forecasts. We conclude that the EnOI assimilation generates better ocean data than the SODA reanalysis for initializing decadal climate prediction of BCC-CSM1.1 model.

关键词：气候预测模型北大西洋数据同化年代际海洋温度初始化过程气候系统模式海洋表面温度

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Workflow-Based Platform Design and Implementation for Numerical Weather prediction Models and Meteorological Data Service

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2017年第3期7卷 337-351页

作者： Xiaoxia Chen Min Wei Jing Sun National Meteorological Information Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for earth system modeling Department of Earth System Science and Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS) Tsinghua University Beijing China

In this paper, we present a set of best practices for workflow design and implementation for numerical weather prediction models and meteorological data service, which have been in operation in China Meteorological Administration (cma) for years and have been proven effective in reliably managing the complexities of large-scale meteorological related workflows. Based on the previous work on the platforms, we argue that a minimum set of guidelines including workflow scheme, module design, implementation standards and maintenance consideration during the whole establishment of the platform are highly recommended, serving to reduce the need for future maintenance and adjustment. A significant gain in performance can be achieved through the workflow-based projects. We believe that a good workflow system plays an important role in the weather forecast service, providing a useful tool for monitoring the whole process, fixing the errors, repairing a workflow, or redesigning an equivalent workflow pattern with new components.

关键词： Workflow SMS ecFlow S2S Numerical Model Meteorological Data Service

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