检索结果-南通市图书馆

Influence of rainfall-induced diabatic heating on southern rainfall-northern haze over eastern China in early February 2023

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Science China earth Sciences 2023年第11期66卷 2579-2593页

作者： Xiadong AN Wen CHEN Chun LI Lifang SHENG Weihang ZHANG Shangfei HAI Peng HU Department of Marine Meteorology College of Oceanic and Atmospheric SciencesOcean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Yunnan UniversityKunming 650500China Yunnan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters and Climate Resources in the Greater Mekong Subregion Yunnan UniversityKunming 650091China Center for Monsoon system Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China cma earth system modeling and prediction Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

In early February 2023,there was severe haze on the North China Plain(NCP)that was contemporaneous with heavy rainfall over southern China,which was known as southern rainfall-northern haze(SR-NH).Based on observational and reanalysis data,the meteorological causes of this SR-NH event are investigated in this study using correlation analysis,dynamic diagnostics and numerical *** results show that the anticyclonic anomaly in the Pacific Northwest(also referred to as the northeast Asian anomalous anticyclone)is responsible for the *** the one hand,this anticyclonic anomaly leads to persistent rainfall over southern China by causing strong ascending motion in conjunction with an anomalous cyclone over the Chinese mainland and transporting large amounts of water vapor *** the other hand,it weakens the climatological northerly winds of the NCP through the southeasterly flow,worsening the horizontal diffusion conditions of ***,the atmospheric stability and relative humidity over the NCP are significantly increased by this anticyclonic *** conditions result in higher PM2.5concentrations over the *** results suggest that this anticyclonic anomaly is related to diabatic heating released by rainfall in southern China,which not only intensifies the rainfall process there(with a contribution of 11.5%)but also induces an anticyclonic anomaly in the upper troposphere of the Pacific Northwest(i.e.,200 hPa).The rainfall-related anticyclonic anomaly reinforces the anticyclonic anomaly in the Pacific Northwest caused by large-scale circulation(with a contribution of 27%)and thus affects haze over the *** study provides a new reference for understanding the contribution of rainfall in southern China to haze over the NCP.

关键词： Rainfall Haze Diabatic heating Anticyclonic anomaly Eastern China

Updated Simulation of Tropospheric Ozone and Its Radiative Forcing over the Globe and China Based on a Newly Developed Chemistry–Climate Model

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第4期36卷 553-573页

作者： Qi AN Hua ZHANG Shuyun ZHAO Tijian WANG Qianxia LIU Zaizhi WANG Sunling GONG Bing XIE Yi LIU Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Department of Atmospheric Science School of Environmental StudiesChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023 cma earth system modeling and prediction Center China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081 Key Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Carbon Neutrality Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029

This study evaluates the performance of a newly developed atmospheric chemistry–climate model,BCCAGCM_CUACE2.0(Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model_China Meteorological Administration Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment)model,for determining past(2010)and future(2050)tropospheric ozone(O_(3))*** radiative forcing(RF),effective radiative forcing(ERF),and rapid adjustments(RAs,both atmospheric and cloud)due to changes in tropospheric O_(3)are then simulated by using the *** results show that the model reproduces the tropospheric O_(3)distribution and the seasonal changes in O_(3)surface concentration in 2010 reasonably compared with site observations throughout *** global annual mean burden of tropospheric O_(3)is simulated to have increased by 14.1 DU in 2010 relative to pre-industrial time,particularly in the Northern *** the same period,tropospheric O_(3)burden has increased by 21.1 DU in China,with the largest increase occurring over Southeast *** the simulated tropospheric O_(3)burden exhibits a declining trend in global mean in the future,it increases over South Asia and Africa,according to the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)4.5 and 8.5 *** global annual mean ERF of tropospheric O_(3)is estimated to be 0.25 W m^(−2)in 1850−2010,and it is 0.50 W m^(−2)over *** corresponding atmospheric and cloud RAs caused by the increase of tropospheric O_(3)are estimated to be 0.02 and 0.03 W m^(−2),*** the RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0,and RCP8.5 scenarios,the annual mean tropospheric O_(3)ERFs are projected to be 0.29(0.24),0.18(0.32),0.23(0.32),and 0.25(0.01)W m^(−2)over the globe(China),respectively.

关键词： tropospheric ozone effective radiative forcing rapid adjustments

Deep Learning for Seasonal Precipitation prediction over China

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第2期36卷 271-281页

作者： Weixin JIN Yong LUO Tongwen WU Xiaomeng HUANG Wei XUE Chaoqing YU Department of earth system Science Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System ModelingInstitute for Global Change StudiesTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084 Beijing Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 AI for earth Lab the Joint Laboratory of Cross-Strait Tsinghua Research InstituteXiamen 361006

Despite significant progress having been made in recent years,the forecast skill for seasonal precipitation over China remains *** this study,a deep-learning-based statistical prediction model for seasonal precipitation over China was *** model was trained to learn the distribution of the seasonal precipitation using simultaneous general circulation ***,it was pre-trained with the hindcasts of several general circulation models(GCMs),and evaluation of the test set suggested that the pre-trained model could basically reproduce the GCM-predicted precipitation,with the anomaly pattern correlation coefficients(PCCs)greater than ***,transfer learning was applied by using ECMWF Reanalysis v5(ERA5)data and gridded precipitation observational data over China,to further correct the systemic errors in the *** a result,using general circulation fields from reanalysis as the input,this hybrid model performed reasonably well in simulating the seasonal precipitation over China,with the PCC reaching *** addition,the results using the circulation fields predicted by GCMs as the input were also *** general,the proposed model improves the PCC over China by 0.10-0.13,as compared to the raw GCM outputs,for lead times of 1-4 *** deep learning model has been used at the National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration for the past two years to provide guidance for summer precipitation prediction over China and has performed extremely well.

关键词： seasonal precipitation seasonal prediction statistical downscaling deep learning

Recent Advances in China on the Predictability of Weather and Climate

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第8期40卷 1521-1547页

作者： Wansuo DUAN Lichao YANG Mu MU Bin WANG Xueshun SHEN Zhiyong MENG Ruiqiang DING LASG Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China cma earth system modeling and prediction Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China cma Tornado Key Laboratory Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

This article summarizes the progress made in predictability studies of weather and climate in recent years in China,with a main focus on advances in methods to study error growth dynamics and reduce uncertainties in the forecasting of weather and ***,it covers(a)advances in methods to study weather and climate predictability dynamics,especially those in nonlinear optimal perturbation methods associated with initial errors and model errors and their applications to ensemble forecasting and target observations,(b)new data assimilation algorithms for initialization of predictions and novel assimilation approaches to neutralize the combined effects of initial and model errors for weather and climate,(c)applications of new statistical approaches to climate predictions,and(d)studies on meso-to small-scale weather system predictability *** of the major frontiers and challenges remaining in predictability studies are addressed in this context.

关键词： predictability target observation data assimilation ensemble forecasting

Near-surface wind speed changes in eastern China during 1970-2019 winter and its possible causes

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第2期13卷 228-239页

作者： Xiao LI Qiao-Ping LI Yi-Hui DING Mei WANG Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Shanghai Energy Technology Development Co. LtdShanghai 200233China earth system modeling and prediction centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing 210041China

The changes in near-surface wind speed(NWS)have a crucial influence on the wind power industry,and previous studies have indicated that NWS on global and China has declined continuously for decades under global ***,recently,the decreasing trend of global NWS has slowed down and even showed a recovery *** the observation data of 831 weather stations of the China Meteorological Administration and the Japanese 55-year reanalysis data from 1970 to 2019,NWS changes in eastern China were analyzed and the possible influencing factors were *** show that winter NWS presented a decreasing trend from−0.29 m s^(−1) per decade(p<0.001)in 1970-1989 to−0.05 m s^(−1) per decade(p<0.01)in ***,NWS exhibited a significant upward trend of 0.18 m s^(−1) per decade(p<0.1)in 2011-2019,resulting in a 19.6%per decade recovery of the wind power generation.A possible cause is asymmetric changes of the sea level pressure and near-surface air temperature differences between the mid-high latitudes(40°-60°N,80°-120°E)and low latitudes(20°-40°N,110°-140°E)altered the horizontal air pressure ***,NWS changes were closely associated with the large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations(LOACs).NWS at 77.4%of the stations in eastern China shows significant correlation(p<0.05)with the East Asian winter monsoon index,besides,the inter/multidecadal variability of NWS was considerably correlated to four LOACs,including Arctic oscillation(AO),North Atlantic oscillation(NAO),Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO),and El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).The time-series reconstructed by a multiple linear regression model based on above five LOACs matches well with the *** variability of NWS were significantly correlated to AO(−0.45,p<0.01)and NAO(−0.28,p<0.05),while the correlation between NWS and ENSO was weak.

关键词： Near-surface wind speed Wind energy Wind speed recovery East Asian winter monsoon Large-scale ocean‒atmosphere circulations

Links between winter dust over the Tibetan Plateau and preceding autumn sea ice variability in the Barents and Kara Seas

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第6期13卷 896-908页

作者： Chao XU Jie-Hua MA Jian-Qi SUN Chao YOU Yao-Ming MA Hui-Jun WANG Tao WANG Climate Change Research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China cma earth system modeling and prediction centre(CEMC) China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Nansen-Zhu International Research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster(KLME) Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China College of Environment and Ecology Chongqing UniversityChongqing 400044China Land-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Climatic Effects Group State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System and Resources Environment(TPESRE)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China College of earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of ScienceBeijing 100049China Center for Pan-third Pole Environment Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)is characterized by heavily local dust activities,however,the mechanism of interannual variations of winter dust frequency over the TP remain poorly *** studies showed the autumn Arctic sea ice could significantly influence the winter climate over *** autumn sea ice affects winter dust activity over the TP or not?Here,we used an integrated surface database to investigate possible mechanisms for interannual variability in the frequency of winter dust events above the *** variability,which is thought to be mainly caused by local dust emissions,shows significant correlations with sea ice concentration(SIC)in the Barents and Kara Seas during the preceding *** Barents-Kara SIC is accompanied by reduced snow depth over northern Eurasia between autumn and winter,which can enhance the Eurasian mid-latitude westerly jet *** strengthening increases the cyclogenesis and occurrence of strong surface wind speeds in winter,especially over the *** addition,a lower SIC is closely associated with reduced precipitation and snow cover in late autumn and winter over the TP,which in turn enhances warming of the land surface and reduces the area of frozen *** anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns and local surface conditions promote dust events above the TP during *** ensemble means of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project experiments from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project and the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 can generally reproduce the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with decreased Barents-Kara *** study reveals the crucial effect that SIC anomalies in the Barents and Kara Seas have on winter dust activities over the TP.

关键词： Winter dust frequency Tibetan Plateau Sea ice concentration Barents and Kara Seas Snow anomalies

Can Eurasia Experience a Cold Winter under a Third-Year La Nina in 2022/23?

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第4期40卷 541-548页

作者： Fei ZHENG Bo WU Lin WANG Jingbei PENG Yao YAO Haifeng ZONG Qing BAO Jiehua MA Shuai HU Haolan REN Tingwei CAO Renping LIN Xianghui FANG Lingjiang TAO Tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU International Center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Monsoon system Research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International Research centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China cma earth system modeling and prediction Center Beijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

The Northern Hemisphere(NH)often experiences frequent cold air outbreaks and heavy snowfalls during La Nina *** 2022,a third-year La Nina event has exceeded both the oceanic and atmospheric thresholds since spring and is predicted to reach its mature phase in December *** such a significant global climate signal,whether the Eurasian Continent will experience a tough cold winter should not be assumed,despite the direct influence of mid-to high-latitude,large-scale atmospheric circulations upon frequent Eurasian cold extremes,whose teleconnection physically operates by favoring Arctic air invasions into Eurasia as a consequence of the reduction of the meridional background temperature gradient in the *** the 2022/23 winter,as indicated by the seasonal predictions from various climate models and statistical approaches developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,abnormal warming will very likely cover most parts of Europe under the control of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the anomalous anticyclone near the Ural Mountains,despite the cooling effects of La *** the same time,the possibility of frequent cold conditions in mid-latitude Asia is also recognized for this upcoming winter,in accordance with the tendency for cold air invasions to be triggered by the synergistic effect of a warm Arctic and a cold tropical Pacific on the hemispheric ***,how the future climate will evolve in the 2022/23 winter is still subject to some uncertainty,mostly in terms of unpredictable internal atmospheric ***,the status of the mid-to high-latitude atmospheric circulation should be timely updated by medium-term numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction for the necessary date information and early warnings.

关键词： Eurasian climate seasonal forecast La Nina winter cold climate

Seamless prediction in China: A Review

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第8期40卷 1501-1520页

作者： Hong-Li REN Qing BAO Chenguang ZHOU Jie WU Li GAO Lin WANG Jieru MA Yao TANG Yangke LIU Yujun WANG Zuosen ZHAO State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Tibetan Plateau MeteorologyChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric Science School of Environmental StudiesChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate prediction Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Ensemble Forecasting Division CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center(CEMC)Beijing 100081China School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China

Seamless prediction is a weather-climate integrated prediction covering multiple time scales that include days,weeks,months,seasons,years,and *** prediction can provide different industries with information such as weather conditions and climate variations from the next few days to years,which have important impacts on economic and social development and important reference value for short-,medium-and long-term decision-making and planning of the ***,seamless prediction has received widespread attention from the international scientific community *** Chinese scientists have also carried out relevant research,this paper reviews the research in China on developments and applications of seamless prediction methods and prediction systems in recent *** them,the main progress of seamless prediction methods studies is reviewed from four aspects:short-and medium-range weather forecasting,subseasonal-to-seasonal,seasonal-to-interannual,and decadal climate *** terms of development and application of seamless prediction systems,the main achievements made by meteorological operational departments,scientific institutes,and universities in China in recent years are ***,some of the issues in seamless prediction that need further study are discussed.

关键词： seamless prediction weather-climate integrated prediction prediction system

Skill improvement of the yearly updated reforecasts in ECMWF S2S prediction from 2016 to 2022

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

大气和海洋科学快报:英文版 2023年第5期16卷 1-7页

作者： Yihao Peng Xiaolei Liu Jingzhi Su Xinli Liu Yixu Zhang State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBejingChina Center for earth system modeling and prediction of cma(CEMC) BejingChina Chengdu University of Information Technology ChengduChina

在2016年至2022年间,ECMWF次季节预测系统不断升级并逐年完成新的回报试验。本文考察该预测系统逐年升级带来的预测技巧提升潜力.从2米气温和降水来看,在起报之后的前两周内天气尺度上预测技巧表现出逐年稳定提升的趋势;在从第三周开始... 详细信息

在2016年至2022年间,ECMWF次季节预测系统不断升级并逐年完成新的回报试验。本文考察该预测系统逐年升级带来的预测技巧提升潜力.从2米气温和降水来看,在起报之后的前两周内天气尺度上预测技巧表现出逐年稳定提升的趋势;在从第三周开始的次季节时间尺度上,预测技巧的提升仅限于热带部分区域.MJO预测技巧并不随着模式升级而逐年单调提升.尽管目前S2S预测技巧存在局限性,但目前已有的进展增强了在未来深入合作以提高S2S预测技术的信心.

关键词：回报次季节预测预测技巧 ECMWF