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The Enhancing Effect of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet on Summer Extreme High-Temperature Events over Central-Eastern China Since the Late 1990s

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第3期42卷 453-466页

作者： Chujie GAO Yuyu NIU Gen LI Shanlei SUN Bo LU Chaofan LI Bei XU Jinglong HUANG Xiubao SUN College of Oceanography&Key laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting Ministry of Natural ResourcesHohai UniversityNanjing 210098China Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China laboratory for climate studies and cma-nju joint laboratory for climate prediction studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Xiong’an Institute of Meteorological Artificial Intellegence Xiong'an 071708China Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China College of Intelligent Science and Control Engineering Jinling Institute of TechnologyNanjing 211169China

The increase in frequency and intensity of Extreme High-temperature Events(EHEs)over Central-Eastern China(CEC)in recent decades has severely impacted social development and *** observation and reanalysis datasets,this study explores the effect of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream(EAJ)on the CEC EHEs for the summers spanning 1979–*** its general relative location to the right side of the upper-level jet stream exit region,CEC would theoretically suffer more EHEs with a stronger and northwardly-shifted EAJ in summer due to the likelihood of abnormal subsidence induced by the ***,such an EAJ–EHE connection has been unstable over the past four decades but has displayed an evident interdecadal *** the late 1990s,the interannual variation of the EAJ was manifested mainly by its meridional displacement in the northeastern part of East Asia;thus,the atmospheric responses were essentially located to the east of CEC,exerting less of an influence on the CEC ***,since the late 1990s,the EAJ variation has featured an intensity change in its center over the northwest portion of the CEC,which has resulted in a westward shift in atmospheric responses to cover the CEC ***,the EAJ could potentially affect the summer CEC EHEs during 2000–*** findings offer support for an in-depth understanding of the formation mechanisms of extreme weather/climate events of this nature and thus provide a scientific reference for seasonal climate predictions.

关键词： summer extreme high-temperature events East Asian subtropical jet atmospheric circulation central-eastern China interdecadal change

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Advantages of the Multimodel Ensemble Approach for Subseasonal Precipitation prediction in China and the Driving Factor of the MJO

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第3期42卷 551-563页

作者： Li GUO Jie WU Qingquan LI Xiaolong JIA China Meteorological Administration Key laboratory for climate prediction studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Centre On Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210066China

Based on the hindcasts from five subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)models participating in the S2S prediction Project,this study evaluates the performance of the multimodel ensemble(MME)approach in predicting the subseasonal precipitation anomalies during summer in China and reveals the contributions of possible driving *** results suggest that while single-model ensembles(SMEs)exhibit constrained predictive skills within a limited forecast lead time of three pentads,the MME illustrates an enhanced predictive skill at a lead time of up to four pentads,and even six pentads,in southern *** on both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics,the MME consistently outperforms SMEs,with a more evident advantage observed in probabilistic *** superior performance of the MME is primarily attributable to the increase in ensemble size,and the enhanced model diversity is also a contributing *** reliability of probabilistic skill is largely improved due to the increase in ensemble members,while the resolution term does not exhibit consistent ***,the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO)is revealed as the primary driving factor for the successful prediction of summer precipitation in China using the *** improvement by the MME is not solely attributable to the enhancement in the inherent predictive capacity of the MJO itself,but derives from its capability in capturing the more realistic relationship between the MJO and subseasonal precipitation anomalies in *** study establishes a scientific foundation for acknowledging the advantageous predictive capability of the MME approach in subseasonal predictions of summer precipitation in China,and sheds light on further improving S2S predictions.

关键词： multimodel ensemble subseasonal predictions summer precipitation S2S model MJO

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Rapid reduction of air pollution and short-term exposure risks in China

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2025年第3期149卷 126-138页

作者： Hao Fan Chuanfeng Zhao Yikun Yang Xingchuan Yang State Key joint laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China laboratory for climate and Ocean-Atmospheric studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China College of Resource Environment and Tourism Capital Normal UniversityBeijing 100048China

With the continuous control of anthropogenic emissions,China’s air quality has improved significantly in recent *** this background,research on how the short-term exposure risks caused by air pollution in China have changed is *** study utilized hourly concentration data from ground observation stations and the official air quality guidelines of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China and the World Health Organization as standards to systematically investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics and short-term exposure risks of air pollution in China from 2015 to *** results indicate that various atmospheric pollutants except for ozone showed a decreasing trend ***,both single pollutant air pollution days(SAPDs)and multiple pollutant air pollution days(MAPDs)showed varying degrees of reduction within 15 and 25 days,*** was dominated mainly by excessive PM_(2.5)and PM_(10)pollutants,while MAPD was dominated mainly by excessive pollutant combinations,including PM_(2.5)+PM_(10),CO+PM_(2.5)+PM_(10),and SO_(2)+PM_(2.5)+PM_(10).As the concentration of atmospheric pollutants decreased,the total excess risk(ER)decreased yearly from 2015 to 2022,but there were significant regional ***,the ER is less than 0.25%in southern China,in the range of 0.25%-0.5%in the North China Plain and some cities in the northeast,and higher than 1%in the *** matter is currently the primary pollutant posing short-term exposure risk in China,especially due to the impact of sandstorm *** study indicates that China’s atmospheric cleaning action is significantly beneficial for reducing health risks.

关键词： Air pollution Emission-reduction Total excess risk Particulate matter China

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Atmospheric eddy anomalies associated with the wintertime North Pacific subtropical front strength and their influences on the seasonal-mean atmosphere

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Science China Earth Sciences 2016年第10期59卷 2022-2036页

作者： WANG LiYing HU HaiBo YANG XunQun REN XueJuan cma-nju joint laboratory for climate prediction studies Instituted for Climate and Global Change Research School of Atmospheric Science Nanjing University

This study investigates transient eddy activity anomalies in the mid-latitude upper troposphere associated with intensity variability of the wintertime North Pacific subtropical front. Our results show that the meridional gradient of air temperature and baroclinic instability in the mid-latitude atmosphere become stronger as the subtropical front intensifies, and the mid-latitude westerly jet accelerates with barotropic structure. We further divide the mid-latitude atmospheric eddy activities into high-(2–7 days) and low-frequency(10–90 days) eddy activities according to their life periods. We find that, when the oceanic subtropical front intensifies, the high-frequency atmospheric eddy activity in the mid-latitudes strengthens while the low-frequency eddy activity weakens. The stronger high-frequency eddy activity tends to moderate the air temperature gradient and baroclinicity in the mid-latitudes. High-frequency eddy anomalies accelerate the westerly jet on the northern side and downstream of the westerly jet, and enhance the jet with equivalent barotropic structure. In contrast, the weaker low-frequency eddy activity has a negative contribution to zonal wind speed tendency and attenuates the zonal homogenization of the jet. The anomalous thermodynamic forcing of the low-frequency eddy activity helps maintain the meridional gradient of air temperature in the mid-troposphere.

关键词： North Pacific subtropical front Frequency Eddy activity Mid-Latitude Ocean-Atmosphere interaction

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Contribution of Water Vapor to the Record-Breaking Extreme Meiyu Rainfall along the Yangtze River Valley in 2020

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第4期35卷 557-570页

作者： Licheng WANG Xuguang SUN Xiuqun YANG Lingfeng TAO Zhiqi ZHANG cma-nju joint laboratory for climate prediction studies School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023

A record-breaking extreme Meiyu rainfall occurred along the Yangtze River valley(YRV)in 2020 since 1961,persisting from 11 June to 31 July with the largest amount and the highest *** the aspect of water vapor,the causes of its formation are revealed in this *** 2020 Meiyu rainfall amount is directly attributed to the greatly enhanced vertically integrated water vapor transport(IVT)convergence,which is in turn primarily determined by the mean circulation dynamic(MCD)contribution associated with anomalous East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)and the thermodynamic component(TH)contribution due to water vapor *** MCD contribution is mainly responsible for the extreme Meiyu rainfall amount and abundant water vapor convergence in the YRV,whereas the TH contribution tends to shift Meiyu rain belt northward to the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley,extending the Meiyu rainfall coverage ***,the excessive moist static energy(MSE)associated with the largest water vapor anomaly could substantially increase the atmospheric instability,favoring the extreme 2020 Meiyu rainfall *** terms of the tremendous IVT to the YRV from both the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal during the 2020 Meiyu period,the low-level anticyclone anomalies over the western North Pacific(WNP)and Bay of Bengal provide appropriate atmospheric circulation conditions,and they are generated by the super suppressed WNP convective activities as a Matsuno-Gill type response,which are further attributed to the combined warm SST anomalies in both the tropical western Indian Ocean(TWIO)and tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO)eventually.

关键词： water vapor convective activity Meiyu rainfall Indian Ocean Atlantic Ocean

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Contribution of Atmospheric Rivers to Precipitation and Precipitation Extremes in East Asia:Diagnosis with Moisture Flux Convergence

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第5期35卷 831-843页

作者： Yating XIONG Xuejuan REN cma–nju joint laboratory for climate prediction studies School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023

Atmospheric rivers(ARs),the long and narrow conveyors of intense moisture transport,have a non-negligible impact on hydrometeorological events over the extratropical *** study analyzes the climatology and interannual variability of ARs and their quantitative association with precipitation and precipitation extremes over East Asia(EA)during 1979-2019,based on calculations of not only moisture transport but also moisture flux *** is found that the ARs over EA occur frequently in spring and summer,accounting for 25%-40%of seasonal precipitation and 60%-75%of extreme precipitation over *** in AR frequency are observed over EA during post-El Ni?o summers,meanwhile the AR-related anomalous moisture convergence is found leading to the increase of extreme ***,increased ARs account for 70%-90%of total precipitation anomalies and up to 90%of extreme precipitation anomalies over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River,and the anomalies of moisture flux convergence are caused mainly by changes in horizontal wind convergence rather than moisture advection during the post-El Ni?o summers.

关键词： atmospheric rivers precipitation extreme events water vapor interannual variability

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Predictability Study of Weather and climate Events Related to Artificial Intelligence Models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第1期42卷 1-8页

作者： Mu MU Bo QIN Guokun DAI Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Shanghai Key laboratory of Ocean-land-atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and climate Change Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Shanghai Frontiers Science Center of Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China cma-FDU joint laboratory of Marine Meteorology Shanghai 200438China Key laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and climate Ministry of EducationShanghai 200438China

Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather and climate *** the past few decades,dynamical numerical models have been the primary tools for predictability studies,achieving significant ***,with the advances in artificial intelligence(AI)techniques and accumulations of vast meteorological data,modeling weather and climate events using modern data-driven approaches is becoming trendy,where FourCastNet,Pangu-Weather,and GraphCast are successful *** this perspective article,we suggest AI models should not be limited to forecasting but be expanded to predictability studies,leveraging AI's advantages of high efficiency and self-contained optimization *** this end,we first remark that AI models should possess high simulation capability with fine spatiotemporal resolution for two kinds of predictability *** models with high simulation capabilities comparable to numerical models can be considered to provide solutions to partial differential equations in a data-driven ***,we highlight several specific predictability issues with well-determined nonlinear optimization formulizations,which can be well-studied using AI models,holding significant scientific *** addition,we advocate for the incorporation of AI models into the synergistic cycle of the cognition–observation–model *** predictability studies have the potential to transform“big data”to“big and better data”and shift the focus from“AI for forecasts”to“AI for science”,ultimately advancing the development of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences.

关键词： predictability artificial intelligence models simulation and forecasting nonlinear optimization cognition–observation–model paradigm

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Impact of net-zero emissions on atmospheric CO2 concentration in China: Ideal simulations based on the GEOS-Chem model

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Science China Earth Sciences 2025年第3期68卷 867-881页

作者： Jingye TAN Jun WANG Huiqin MAO Hengmao WANG Zhiqiang LIU Meirong WANG Ran YAN Xunmei WANG Fei JIANG Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling International Institute for Earth System Science Nanjing University Jiangsu Provincial Key laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources School of Geography and Ocean Science Nanjing University Satellite Environmental Application Center Ministry of Environmental Protection cma Key Open laboratory of Transforming climate Resources to Economy Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences State Key laboratory of climate System prediction and Risk Management Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Xizang Field Station for Scientific Observation and Research on Atmospheric Water Cycle in Mêdog Xigazê and Mêdog National Climate ObservatoryXizang Meteorological Service

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide（CO2） concentrations have caused global climate change such as global warming and more frequent climate extremes. Countries worldwide have proposed carbon neutrality strategies to curb the rising CO2concentrations. To investigate the impact of China's carbon neutrality goal on atmospheric CO2concentrations, we conducted a series of ideal simulations from 2015 to 2019 using a global 3D chemistry transport model, Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry（GEOS-Chem）. Compared with the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of atmospheric CO2（XCO2） from Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2（OCO-2） and surface CO2measurements in Obs Pack, we find that GEOS-Chem effectively reproduces the spatiotemporal variability of CO2. The model exhibits a root mean square error（RMSE） of 1.51 ppm（R2=0.89） for OCO-2 XCO2in China and 2.65 ppm（R2=0.75） for surface CO2concentrations at the WLG station. Further, compared to 2.83 ppm yr-1in the control experiment, we suggest that net-zero CO2emissions in China decelerate the increasing trends of XCO2to 1.81 ppm yr-1,making a decrease of approximately 35.89%. Meanwhile, the seasonal cycle amplitude（SCA） of XCO2is moderately reduced from 7.39±0.81 to 6.75±0.70 ppm, representing a relative reduction of 9.91%. Spatially, net-zero CO2emissions induce a more significant decrease in XCO2trends over northern and southern China, while their impact on SCA is more evident in northern and northeastern China. Moreover, ideal experiments demonstrate that zero fossil CO2emissions lead to a greater attenuation of the linear trends of XCO2by 40.81%, while the absence of terrestrial CO2sinks largely diminishes the SCA by 16.61%. Additionally,trends and SCA in surface CO2concentrations exhibit almost identical decreasing responses to net-zero CO2emissions but display greater sensitivities compared to XCO2. Overall, our study underscores the potential of China's carbon neutrality goal in mitigating global warming, underscoring the need

关键词： XCO2 GEOS-Chem Carbon neutrality Net-zero emissions Surface CO2 concentrations

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Causes of Winter Persistent Extreme Cold Events in Northeastern China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第4期42卷 780-793页

作者： Ming YANG Qingjiu GAO Tim LI State Key laboratory of climate System prediction and Risk Management/Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHI 96822USA

Persistent(5-day or longer)extreme cold events(ECEs)over northeastern China during the boreal winter of 1979–2020 are investigated using daily minimum temperature(Tmin)from the China Meteorological Data *** extreme cooling area and intensity indices associated with the ECEs exhibit a dominant 10–40-day periodicity,indicating a close link with atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs).The ECEs are categorized into W-and *** the former,the low-frequency cooling associated with the ISO first penetrates into the western boundary of the northeastern China domain and later occupies the entire domain at its peak *** upper-tropospheric circulation associated with this type is characterized by a northwest–southeast-oriented Rossby wave train,expanding from the Ural Mountains to the western Pacific *** the latter,the cooling invades the northern boundary first and then penetrates into the entire *** upper tropospheric precursory signal associated with this type is a zonally oriented negative geopotential height anomaly,which slowly moves southward.A downward-propagating signal is observed in the stratospheric potential vorticity field prior to the peak cooling,implying a possible stratospheric *** addition to the W-and N-types,ECEs can also occur in a localized region near either at the northern or southern boundary of the domain.

关键词： extreme cold events low-frequency ISO mode Rossby wave train composite analysis downward propagation potential vorticity

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Impacts of Land–Atmosphere Coupling on Summer Extreme Hot-Humid Compound Events over Southern Eurasia under Different Sea Surface Temperature Backgrounds

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第4期42卷 744-760页

作者： Yajing QI Haishan CHEN Siguang ZHU State Key laboratory of climate System prediction and Risk Management/Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Land–atmosphere coupling and sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies both have essential impacts on weather and climate *** on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset and the CESM1.2.2 model,this study investigates the influence of land–atmosphere coupling on summer extreme hot-humid events(EHHE)over southern Eurasia under different SST *** results suggest that coupling causes near-surface air temperature increases that exceed 0.5℃.From 1961 to 2020,the frequency of EHHE has continuously increased,and is closely related to soil moisture anomalies in the northern Indian Peninsula(IDP)and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(YRB).Numerical simulations further demonstrate that land–atmosphere coupling raises the risk of EHHE by 25.4%.In a typical El Niño SST background state,intensified land–atmosphere coupling tends to produce notable increases in the frequency of *** dominant processes that land–atmosphere coupling affects the EHHE variations are evidently different between these two *** surface thermal anomalies predominate in the IDP,while moisture conditions are more critical in the *** warm SST anomalies exist,dry soil anomalies in the IDP are prominent,and evaporation is constrained,increasing sensible heat *** geopotential height anomalies are significant,combined with adiabatic warming induced by descending motion and a noticeable warm center in the near-surface *** southward shift of the westerly jet enhances divergence over *** anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the western Pacific are conducive to guiding moisture transport to the YRB,providing a favorable circulation background for the development of summer EHHE.

关键词： land-atmosphere coupling sea surface temperature extreme hot-humid events southern Eurasia

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