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Winter extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 42-51页

作者： Qing-Quan LI Miao BI Song YANG Qing-Yuan WU Yi-Hui DING Xin-Yong SHEN Xiao-Ting SUN Meng-Chu ZHAO China Meteorological Administration Key laboratory for climate prediction studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China cma Key Open laboratory of Transforming climate Resources to Economy Chongqing Institute of Meteorological SciencesChongqing 401147China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key laboratory for climate Change and Natural Disaster studies Sun Yat-sen University Zhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)and the Arctic are the most sensitive regions to global climate change.However,the interdecadal varibility of winter extreme precipitation over the TP and its linkage with Arctic sea ice are still unclear.In this study,the characteristics and mechisnems of the TP extreme precipitation(TPEP)influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale are studied based on the daily precipitation,monthly sea ice concentration and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1980 to 2018.We found that the dominant mode of the TPEP in winter mostly exhibits a uniform spatial variation on the interdecadal timescale,with an opposite weak variation in the southeastern TP,and the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)before 2002 are larger than that after 2003.The interdecadal variation of TPEP is affected by two teleconnection wave trains regulated by the Barents and Kara Sea ice.In the light ice years,a remarkable positive geopotential height(HGT)anomaly appears over the Barents-Kara Sea and a remarkable negative HGT anomaly is located over the Lake Baikal.Two wave trains originating over the Barents-Kara Sea can be observed.The southern branch forms a wave train through the North Atlantic along the subtropical westerly jet stream,showing a‘+-+-+'pattern of HGT anomalies from Arctic to the TP.Negative HGT anomaly controls the western TP,which creates dynamic and water vapor conditions for the TPEP.The northern branch forms a wave train through the Lake Baikal and the southeast of the TP,showing a‘+-+'HGT anomaly distribution.Positive HGT anomaly controls the southeastern TP,which is not conducive to precipitation in the region.When the SIC in the Barents-Kara Sea increases,the situation is opposite.The above analysis also reveals the reason for the difference in the east-west distribution of the TPEP.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Tibetan Plateau Winter extreme precipitation Rossby wave activity Interdecadal variation

Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast China Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model Forecasts for 2006–2021

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 453-468页

作者： Yiqiu YU Jie WU Yihe FANG Chunyu ZHAO Zongjian KE Yitong LIN Liaoning Provincial climate Centre Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Administration Key Opening laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research China Meteorological Administration Panjin National climate Observatory China Meteorological Administration Key laboratory for climate prediction studies National Climate Centre China Meteorological Administration Jilin Provincial climate Centre Jilin Provincial Meteorological Administration

As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid–high latitudes of East Asia, the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) substantially influences weather and climate in this region. So far, systematic assessment on the performance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried out. Based on the Beijing climate Centre(BCC) and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S) prediction Project, this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal timescale. The results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the seasonal variations in the intensity, active days, and spatial distribution of NCCVs; however, the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the observations. Diagnostic analysis shows that the differences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S models. Nonetheless, in the deterministic forecasts, BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4–5(5–6) pentads, and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1–2 pentads longer than that of individual members. In the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities, BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 11 days, respectively; both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events, with better performance in winter than in summer.The results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex (NCCV) predictability sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction deterministic forecast probabilistic forecast

Changes in extreme high temperature warning indicators over China under different global warming levels

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第6期67卷 1895-1909页

作者： Yuxia ZHANG Ying SUN Ting HU Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China National climate Center Laboratory for Climate StudiesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

High temperature warning indicators play a pivotal role in meteorological departments,serving as crucial criteria for issuing warnings that guide both social production and daily life.Despite their importance,limited studies have explored the relationship between different global warming levels and changes in high temperature warning indicators.In this study,we analyze data from 2,419 meteorological stations over China and utilize the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models to examine historical changes in high temperature warning indicators used by the China Meteorological Administration.We evaluate model performance and estimate future changes in these indicators using an annual cycle bias correction method.The results indicate that since 1961,the number of high temperature days(TX35d and TX40d)and length of season(TX40d and TX40l)with daily maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 35℃ and 40℃ have increased over China.The intensity of high temperatures(TXx)has strengthened and the geographical extent affected by high temperatures has expanded.In 2022,the occurrence of 40℃ high temperatures surges,with Eastern China experiencing a two-day increase in TX40d and an extended seasonal length in TX40l by over five days.While CMIP6 models have underestimated the high temperature indictors associated with 35℃ during historical periods,notable difference is not observed between the models and observations for TX40d and TX40l,given their rare occurrence.However,future projections,after bias correction,indicate that the increasing trends for 35℃ and 40℃ high temperature days and length of season become more pronounced than the raw projection,suggesting a more severe increase than that anticipated originally.As global warming intensifies,the high temperature days and length of season are projected to increase non-linearly,while the intensity of high temperatures is expected to increase linearly.For every 1℃ increase in global temperature,the intensity is projected to rise by approximately 1.4℃.The impa

关键词： Extreme high temperatures Meteorological warning CMIP6 Global warming levels Future projection

The 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Shanghai,Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley:Combined Influences of Multiscale Variabilities

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 593-607页

作者： Ping LIANG Zhiqi ZHANG Yihui DING Zeng-Zhen HU Qi CHEN Key laboratory of Cities’Mitigation and Adaptation to climate Change in Shanghai Shanghai Regional Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China National climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAACollege ParkMD 20740USA

In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since 1961.In this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of Shanghai.We found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global warming.During mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme HW.The Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time scale.Also,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking pattern.Anomalous warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong WPSH.At the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the HW.Therefore,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.

关键词： extreme heatwave multiscale variability air-sea interaction warming trend Yangtze River Valley Shanghai

Spatial continuous modeling of early Cenozoic carbon cycle and climate

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National Science Review 2024年第4期11卷 30-32页

作者： Yonggang Liu Jian Zhang Haoyue Zuo Zhilin He Jiaqi Guo Qifan Lin Haonan Yu Jiawenjing Lan Jing Han Zhihong Song Zihan Yin Liang Zhao Yongyun Hu Zhengtang Guo laboratory for climate and Ocean-Atmosphere studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University Key laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of Sciences State Key laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The partial pressure of atmospheric CO2（pCO2） is determined by the carbon cycle that involves climate, biogeochemistry, and plate tectonics. In this cycle,atmospheric CO2is converted into organic carbon and carbonates by biological activities and silicate weathering, and buried as sediments. The sediments on the ocean floor are subducted into the Earth’s interior, and subsequently converted back into CO2and outgassed into the atmosphere.

关键词： ATMOSPHERIC CO2

A Tri-mode of Mock-Walker Cells

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 671-679页

作者： Han QIN Ji NIE Zhiyong MENG laboratory for climate and Ocean-Atmosphere studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key laboratory Foshan 528061China

This work uses cloud-resolving simulations to study mock-Walker cells driven by a specified sea surface temperature(SST).The associated precipitation in the mock-Walker cells exhibits three different modes,including a single peak of precipitation over the SST maximum(mode 1),symmetric double peaks of precipitation straddling the SST maximum(mode 2),and a single peak of precipitation on one side of the SST maximum(mode 3).The three modes are caused by three distinct convective activity center migration traits.Analyses indicate that the virtual effect of water vapor plays an important role in differentiating the three modes.When the SST gradient is large,the virtual effect may be strong enough to overcome the temperature effect,generating a low-level low-pressure anomaly below the ascending branch of the Walker cell off the center.The results here highlight the importance of the virtual effect of water vapor and its interaction with convection and large-scale circulation in the Walker circulation.

关键词： Walker circulation cloud-resolving simulation virtual effect

Quantitative estimation of global mean precipitation throughout the Phanerozoic era

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1616-1624页

作者： Xiujuan BAO Yongyun HU laboratory for climate and Ocean-Atmospheric studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China

Quantitatively estimating the global mean precipitation(GMP)throughout Earth's history is crucial for enhancing our understanding of long-term climate evolution and the hydrological cycle.However,currently there is no established methodology for estimating global mean paleoprecipitation.Here,we present the first study that estimates GMP in the Phanerozoic era.The relationship between GMP and global mean surface temperature(GMST)is investigated by analyzing data from 23 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6).The result reveals consistent and significant impact of temperature on precipitation,with a sensitivity range of 2–3%K^(-1).Additionally,we propose a method for accessing latitudinal variations in precipitation caused by land area distributions and paleo-Koppen climatic belts.These climatic belts are determined based on geological indicators such as coals,evaporites,and glacial deposits.The GMP is thus quantitatively estimated by combining variations in GMST,land area distributions,and paleo-koppen climatic belts,spanning from 540 Ma to the present day.The quantitative GMP curve demonstrates fluctuations in GMP about 500 mm yr^(-1),with values ranging from 948 to1442 mm yr-1over the Phanerozoic era.This curve aligns closely with findings derived from numerical simulations.The presented paleoprecipitation variations facilitate a more comprehensive understanding of the interconnected geological and paleoclimatic developments.

关键词： Paleoprecipitation Paleoclimate K?ppen climatic belts Global mean precipitation Hydrological cycle

The Unprecedented Extreme Anticyclonic Anomaly over Northeast Asia in July 2021 and Its Climatic Impacts

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 608-618页

作者： Xingyan ZHOU Riyu LU laboratory for climate studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

This study investigates the evolution of an extreme anomalous anticyclone(AA)event over Northeast Asia,which was one of the dominant circulation systems responsible for the catastrophic extreme precipitation event in July 2021 in Henan,and further explores the significant impact of this AA on surface temperatures beneath it.The results indicate that this AA event over Northeast Asia was unprecedented in terms of intensity and duration.The AA was very persistent and extremely strong for 10 consecutive days from 13 to 22 July 2021.This long-lived and unprecedented AA led to the persistence of warmer surface temperatures beyond the temporal span of the pronounced 500-hPa anticyclonic signature as the surface air temperatures over land in Northeast Asia remained extremely warm through 29 July 2021.Moreover,the sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Japan/East Sea were extremely high for 30 consecutive days from 13 July to 11 August 2021,persisting well after the weakening or departure of this AA.These results emphasize the extreme nature of this AA over Northeast Asia in July 2021 and its role in multiple extreme climate events,even over remote regions.Furthermore,possible reasons for this long-lasting AA are explored,and it is suggested to be a byproduct of a teleconnection pattern over extratropical Eurasia during the first half of its life cycle,and of the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern during the latter half.

关键词： anomalous anticyclone Northeast Asia surface air temperatures sea surface temperatures

Seasonal prediction of extreme high-temperature days over the Yangtze River basin

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2137-2147页

作者： Shifeng PAN Zhicong YIN Mingkeng DUAN Tingting HAN Yi FAN Yangyang HUANG Huijun WANG Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China

Extreme high temperatures occur frequently over the densely populated Yangtze River basin(YRB)in China during summer,significantly impacting the local economic development and ecological system.However,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days in this region remains a challenge.Unfortunately,the climate Forecast System Version 2(CFSv2)exhibits poor performance in this regard.Thus,based on the interannual increment approach,we develop a hybrid seasonal prediction model over the YRB(HM_(YRB))to improve the prediction of extreme high-temperature days in summer.The HM_(YRB)relies on the following four predictors:the observed preceding April-May snowmelt in north western Europe;the snow depth in March over the central Siberian Plateau;the CFSv2-forecasted concurrent summer sea surface temperatures around the Maritime Continent;and the 200-hPa geopotential height over the Tibetan Plateau.The HM_(YRB)indicates good capabilities in predicting the interannual variability and trend of extreme high-temperature days,with a markable correlation coefficient of 0.58 and a percentage of the same sign(PSS)of 76% during 1983-2015 in the one-year-out cross-validation.Additionally,the HM_(YRB) maintains high PSS skill(86%)and robustness in the independent prediction period(2016-2022).Furthermore,the HM_(YRB) shows a good performance for years with high occurrence of extreme high-temperature days,with a hit ratio of 40%.These predictors used in HM_(YRB)are beneficial in terms of the prediction skill for the average daily maximum temperature in summer over the YRB,albeit with biases existing in the magnitude.Our study provides promising insights into the prediction of 2022-like hot extremes over the YRB in China.

关键词： Hot extremes Yangtze River basin CFSv2 Seasonal prediction One-year-out cross-validation