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Recommendations for improved tropical cyclone formation and position probabilistic Forecast products

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第4期12卷 241-258页

作者： Jason P.Dunion Chris Davis Helen Titley Helen Greatrex Munehiko Yamaguchi John Methven Raghavendra Ashrit Zhuo Wang Hui Yu Anne-Claire Fontan Alan Brammer Matthew Kucas Matthew Ford Philippe Papin Fernando Prates Carla Mooney Andrew Kruczkiewicz Paromita Chakraborty Andrew Burton Mark DeMaria Ryan Torn Jonathan L.Vigh cimas University of Miamiand Hurricane Research DivisionNOAA/AOMLFloridaUSA NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory ColoradoUSA UK Met Office ExeterUK Pennsylvania State University PennsylvaniaUSA World Meteorological Organization GenevaSwitzerland University of Reading ReadingUK National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Ministry of Earth SciencesNoidaIndia University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign IllinoisUSA Shanghai Typhoon Institute CMAShanghaiChina WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme(TCP)GenevaSwitzerland Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere/Colorado State University ColoradoUSA Joint Typhoon Warning Center HonoluluUSA MetService New Zealand WellingtonNew Zealand NOAA National Hurricane Center FloridaUSA European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ReadingUK Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneAustralia Columbia University New YorkUSA Centre for Climate Research Singapore Meteorological Services SingaporeSingapore CIRA/Colorado State University ColoradoUSA University at Albany-SUNY New YorkUSA Research Applications Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric ResearchColoradoUSA

Prediction of the potentially devastating impact of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs)relies substantially on numerical prediction *** to the limited predictability of TCs and the need to express forecast confidence and possible scenarios,it is vital to exploit the benefits of dynamic ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasts and ***,TCWCs,and other forecast centers value probabilistic guidance for TCs,but the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9)found that the“pull-through”of probabilistic information to operational warnings using those forecasts is ***-9 recommendations led to the formation of the WMO/WWRP Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products(TC-PFP)project,which is also endorsed as a WMO Seamless GDPFS Pilot *** main goal of TC-PFP is to coordinate across forecast centers to help identify best practice guidance for probabilistic TC ***-PFP is being implemented in 3 phases:Phase 1(TC formation and position);Phase 2(TC intensity and structure);and Phase 3(TC related rainfall and storm surge).This article provides a summary of Phase 1 and reviews the current state of the science of probabilistic forecasting of TC formation and *** is considerable variability in the nature and interpretation of forecast products based on ensemble information,making it challenging to transfer knowledge of best practices across forecast *** among forecast centers regarding the effectiveness of different approaches would be helpful for conveying best *** collaboration with experts experienced in communicating complex probabilistic TC information and sharing of best practices between centers would help to ensure effective decisions can be made based on TC ***,forecast centers need timely access to ensemble information that has consistent,user-friendly ensemble *** consistency across forecast centers in data accessibility,probabilistic forecast pr

关键词： Tropical cyclone Probabilistic Formation Position

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