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A Rapid Estimation Method for Post-earthquake Building Losses

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2023年第3期14卷 428-439页

作者： Dengke Zhao Zifa Wang Jianming Wang Dongliang Wei Yang Zhou Zhaoyan Li Institute of Engineering Mechanics China Earthquake AdministrationHarbin 150080China ceakj adprhexa inc. Shaoguan 512000China

Rapid estimation of post-earthquake building damage and loss is very important in urgent response efforts.The current approach leaves much room for improvement in estimating ground motion and correctly inc.rporating the uncertainty and spatial correlation of the loss.This study proposed a new approach for rapidly estimating post-earthquake building loss with reasonable accuracy.The proposed method interpolates ground motion based on the observed ground motion using the Ground Motion Prediction Equation(GMPE)as the weight.It samples the building seismic loss quantile considering the spatial loss correlation that is expressed by Gaussian copula,and kriging is applied to reduce the dimension of direct sampling for estimation speed.The proposed approach was validated using three historical earthquake events in Japan with actual loss reports,and was then applied to predict the building loss amount for the March 2022 Fukushima Mw7.3 earthquake.The proposed method has high potential in future emergency efforts such as search,rescue,and evacuation planning.

关键词： Earthquake building loss estimation Fukushima earthquake 2022 Gaussian copula sampling Japan Spatial correlation of earthquake losses Spatial interpolation of ground motion

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Toward Earth system modeling with resolved clouds and ocean submesoscales on heterogeneous many-core HPCs

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National Science Review 2023年第6期10卷 153-167页

作者： Shaoqing Zhang Shiming Xu Haohuan Fu Lixin Wu Zhao Liu Yang Gao Chun Zhao Wubing Wan Lingfeng Wan Haitian Lu Chenling Li Yanfei Liu Xiaojing Lv Jiayu Xie Yangyang Yu Jun Gu Xuantong Wang Yan Zhang Chenhui Ning Yunlong Fei Xiuwen Guo Zhaoying Wang Xue Wang Zhenming Wang Binglin Qu Mingkui Li Haoran Zhao Yingjing Jiang Guang Yang Lv Lu Hong Wang Hong An Xin Zhang Yu Zhang Wentao Ma Fujiang Yu Jing Xu Xiaopei Lin Xueshun Shen State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural Resources Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences The Center of Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography Ministry of Education/Institute for Advanced Ocean Study/Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (DOMES) College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean University of China Laoshan Laboratory Ministry of Education Key Lab for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University National Supercomputing Center in Wuxi Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology Ministry of Education Ocean University of China Deep Space Exploration Laboratory/School of Earth and Space Sciences University of Science and Technology of China School of Computer Science and Technology University of Science and Technology of China ceakj adprhexa inc. National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center

With the aid of the newly developed ’Sunway’ heterogeneous-architecture supercomputer,which has world-leading HPC(high-performance computer) capability,a series of high-resolution coupled Earth system models(SW-HRESMs) with up to 5 km of atmosphere and 3 km of ocean have been developed.These models can meet the needs of multiscale interaction studies with different computational costs.Here we describe the progress of SW-HRESMs development,with an overview of the major advancements made by the international Earth science community in HR-ESMs.We also show the preliminary results of SW-HRESMs with regard to capturing major weather-climate extremes in the atmosphere and ocean,stressing the importance of permitted clouds and ocean submesoscale eddies in modeling tropical cyclones and eddy-mean flow interactions,and paving the way for further model development to resolve finer scales with even higher resolution and more realistic physics.Finally,in addition to inc.easing model resolution,the development procedure for a non-hydrostatic cloud and ocean submesoscale resolved ESM is discusse d,laying out the major scientific directions of such a huge modeling advancement.

关键词： high-resolution Earth system models heterogeneous supercomputer cloud and submesoscale resolving weather-climate extremes finer cross-scale interactions

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