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A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第4期9卷 1147-1162页

作者： Leonid Kalachev Jon Graham Erin L.Landguth Mathematical Sciences University of MontanaMissoulaUSA center for population health research School of Public and Community Health SciencesUniversity of MontanaMissoulaUSA

Background:Under-reporting and,thus,uncertainty around the true incidence of health events is common in all public health reporting *** the problem of underreporting is acknowledged in epidemiology,the guidance and methods available for assessing and correcting the resulting bias are ***:We aim to design a simple modification to the Susceptible e Infected e Removed(SIR)model for estimating the fraction or proportion of reported infection ***:The suggested modification involves rescaling of the classical SIR model producing its mathematically equivalent version with explicit dependence on the reporting parameter(true proportion of cases reported).We justify the rescaling using the phase plane analysis of the SIR model system and show how this rescaling parameter can be estimated from the data along with the other model ***:We demonstrate how the proposed method is cross-validated using simulated data with known disease cases and then apply it to two empirical reported data sets to estimate the fraction of reported cases in Missoula County,Montana,USA,using:(1)flu data for 2016e2017 and(2)COVID-19 data for fall of ***:We establish with the simulated and COVID-19 data that when most of the disease cases are presumed reported,the value of the additional reporting parameter in the modified SIR model is close or equal to one,so that the original SIR model is appropriate for data ***,the flu example shows that when the reporting parameter is close to zero,the original SIR model is not accurately estimating the usual rate parameters,and the re-scaled SIR model should be *** research demonstrates the role of under-reporting of disease data and the importance of accounting for underreporting when modeling simulated,endemic,and pandemic disease *** reporting the“true”number of disease cases will have downstream impacts on predictions of disease dynamics.A simple parameter adjustment

关键词： Modeling of epidemics SIR type models flu and COVID-19 Under-reporting parameter Proportion of reported disease cases

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Nurses'critical thinking disposition and professional commitment:a cross-sectional study

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Frontiers of Nursing 2024年第1期11卷 119-126页

作者： Mahtab Allah Tavakoli Golnaz Foroughameri Jamileh Farokhzadian Sedigheh Khodabandeh Shahraki Nursing research center Kerman University of Medical SciencesKerman ***Iran Reproductive health Family and Population Research CenterKerman University of Medical SciencesKerman ***Iran

Objective:High-quality and successful nursing care delivery in a variety of situations requires critical thinking training and professional *** present study aimed to investigate critical thinking disposition,professional commitment,and the relationship between these 2 variables among ***:As a result of stratified random sampling,201 nurses were enrolled in the present cross-sectional *** were gathered using a socio-demographic form,the Critical Thinking Disposition Inventory(CTDI),and the Nurses'Professional Commitment Scale(NPCS).Results:Although the critical thinking disposition scores were at a moderate level(115.70±13.55),the mean score for professional commitment was high(91.37±11.77).A positive correlation was found between critical thinking disposition and professional commitment(r=0.67,P=0.001).Conclusions:Nursing managers are urged to employ strategies to enhance nurses'critical thinking disposition and professional commitment.

关键词： critical thinking nursing education professional commitment skills strategies

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Association of physical activity with risk of chronic kidney disease in China:A population-based cohort study

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Journal of Sport and health Science 2024年第2期13卷 204-211页

作者： Kexiang Shi Yunqing Zhu Jun Lv Dianjianyi Sun Pei Pei Huaidong Du Yiping Chen Ling Yang Bing Han Rebecca Stevens Junshi Chen Zhengming Chen Liming Li Canqing Yu China Kadoorie Biobank collaborative group Department of Epidemiology&Biostatistics School of Public HealthPeking University Health Science CenterBeijing 100191China Peking University center for Public health and Epidemic Preparedness&Response Beijing 100191China Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases(Peking University) Ministry of EducationBeijing 100191China Clinical Trial Service Unit&Epidemiological Studies Unit(CTSU) Nuffield Department of Population HealthUniversity of OxfordOxford OX37LFUK Medical research Council population health research Unit at the University of Oxford Oxford OX37LFUK NCDs Prevention and Control Department Henan Center for Disease Control and PreventionZhengzhou 450016China China National center for Food Safety Risk Assessment Beijing 100022China 不详

Background:Information on the association between physical activity(PA)and the risk of chronic kidney disease(CKD)is *** aimed to explore the associations of total,domain-specific,and intensity-specific PA with CKD and its subtypes in ***:The study included 475,376 adults from the China Kadoorie Biobank aged 30-79 years during 2004-2008 at *** interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect the information about PA,which was quantified as metabolic equivalent of task hours per day(MET-h/day)and categorized into 4 groups based on *** regression was used to analyze the association between PA and CKD ***:During a median follow-up of 12.1 years,5415 incident CKD cases were documented,including 1159 incident diabetic kidney disease(DKD)cases and 362 incident hypertensive nephropathy(HTN)*** PA was inversely associated with CKD risk,with an adjusted hazard ratio(HR,95%confidence interval(95%CI))of 0.83(0.75-0.92)for incident CKD in the highest quartile of total PA as compared with participants in the lowest *** results were observed for risk of DKD and HTN,and the corresponding HRs(95%CIs)were 0.75(0.58-0.97)for DKD risk and 0.56(0.37-0.85)for HTN *** nonoccupational PA,low-intensity PA,and moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA were significantly associated with a decreased risk of CKD,with HRs(95%CIs)of 0.80(0.73-0.88),0.85(0.77-0.94),and 0.85(0.76-0.95)in the highest quartile,***:PA,including nonoccupational PA,low-intensity PA,and moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA,was inversely associated with the risk of CKD,including DKD,HTN,and other CKD,and such associations were dose dependent.

关键词： Chronic kidney disease Domain Intensity Physical activity

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Mental emotional disorder is a predictor of stroke incidence in adults:Ten year results of the Bogor Cohort Study on Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors in Indonesia

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2024年第8期17卷 351-357页

作者： Woro Riyadina Alifa Syamantha Putri Sulistyowati Tuminah Ika Suswanti Yuda Turana research center for Public health and Nutrition Organization Research for HealthNational Research and Innovation AgencyCenter JakartaIndonesia StiKes Widya Dharma Husada Tangerang South TangerangIndonesia School of Medicine and health Sciences Atma Jaya Catholic University of IndonesiaNorth JakartaIndonesia

Objective:To determine the stroke predictors for the 10-year of follow-up in Bogor City,***:The prospective study analyzed the data of 4445 stroke-free subjects aged 25 years and above that was part of"the Bogor Cohort Study on Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors".Data were collected by interview method with structured questionnaires,physical measurements three times a year,and laboratory examination every two years during a 10-year follow-up(2011-2021,without examination in 2020).The incidence of stroke is based on anamnesis results and examination by a *** stroke predictor variables include characteristics,biological conditions,and risk *** analysed 4445 stroke-free samples with Cox proportional hazard regression ***:During the 10-year observation,stroke incidence was 440 person-years per 100000 population(95%CI 370-530).During the follow-up of ten years,the main predictor of stroke was mental-emotional disorders with HR 4.2(95%CI 2.8-6.3)after adjustment by age,hypertension,obesity,abdominal obesity,and high LDL-cholesterol ***:Mental-emotional disorders are the strongest predictor of stroke ***,psychological factors must be controlled in a stroke prevention program.

关键词： Adult Cohort Mental-emotional disorder Stroke predictor

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A Prospective Cohort Study of Antimony Exposure and Cognitive Impairment in Older Adults—China,2017–2021

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China CDC weekly 2024年第23期6卷 537-541,I0001-I0007页

作者： Yidan Qiu Saisai Ji Chen Chen Jinhui Zhou Jun Wang Bing Wu Yuan Wei Fangyu Li Xulin Zheng Lanjing Xu Zheng Zhang Feng Zhao Guangdi Chen John SJi Yuebin Lyu Shilu Tong Xiaoming Shi Department of Big Data in health Science School of Public HealthZhejiang UniversityHangzhou CityZhejiang ProvinceChina China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and population health National Institute of Environmental HealthChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina center for Global health School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing CityJiangsu ProvinceChina Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public HealthJilin UniversityChangchun CityJilin ProvinceChina School of Public health China Medical UniversityShenyang CityLiaoning ProvinceChina Institute of Environmental health School of Public Healthand Bioelectromagnetics LaboratorySchool of MedicineZhejiang UniversityHangzhou CityZhejiang ProvinceChina Environmental research center Duke Kunshan UniversityKunshan CityJiangsu ProvinceChina Nicholas School of the Environment Duke UniversityDurhamNCUSA School of Public health Institute of Environment and Population HealthAnhui Medical UniversityHefei CityAnhui ProvinceChina School of Public health and Social Work Queensland University of TechnologyBrisbaneAustralia

What is already known about this topic?Antimony(Sb)has been identified as a new neurotoxicant that impacts neurological functions in animal ***,its effects on the human population remain *** is added by this report?The study reveals that there is an association between exposure to Sb and a higher incidence of cognitive impairment in older *** dose-response curve demonstrates that the risk of cognitive impairment consistently increased with higher levels of Sb exposure without a discernible *** are the implications for public health practice?Reducing exposure to Sb may have a beneficial effect in delaying or preventing the onset of cognitive *** intervention has the potential to significantly decrease the disease burden associated with cognitive impairment,ultimately contributing to social development.

关键词： Antimony development. exposure

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Differential Impact of Fertility on health-Adjusted Life Expectancy of Older Adults Across Countries of Various Levels of Socio-Demographic Index—Worldwide,1995-2019

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China CDC weekly 2024年第39期6卷 991-995页

作者： Shuai Guo Chen Chen Yunhe Wang Yi Cao Zhiwei Leng Xiaoying Zheng Department of population health and Aging Science School of Population Medicine and Public HealthChinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina School of population Medicine and Public health Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina Nuffield Department of population health University of OxfordOxfordUK center for health Policy and health Economics National Infrastructures for Translational MedicineInstitute of Clinical MedicinePeking Union Medical College HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina Institute for Global health and Development Peking UniversityBeijingChina

What is already known about this topic?health-adjusted life expectancy(HALE)is a crucial indicator of global health,which is strongly correlated with the socio-demographic index(SDI)and population *** is added by this report?This study revealed that the correlation between total fertility rate(TFR)and HALE of older adults varies across countries with different SDI levels,offering valuable insights for the development of more targeted health promotion programs and *** are the implications for public health practice?Different health interventions should be tailored to countries with different levels of *** countries with both low fertility rates and low SDI,advanced measures are needed to address the challenge of an aging population that may live longer but face poorer health in the future.

关键词： demographic fertility offering

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Cervical cancer prevention in China: where are we now, and what's next?

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Cancer Biology & Medicine 2024年第3期21卷 213-217页

作者： Huijiao Yan Qiankun Wang Youlin Qiao School of population Medicine and Public health Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBejing 100730China Department of Cancer Epidemiology National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBejing 100021China

Cervical cancer(CC) epidemiology CC, the fourth most frequently diagnosed malignancy in women worldwide, is a major global health challenge, particularly in low-resource regions. Approximately 88.1% of the 604,000 CC new cases occurred in low-and middle-income countries in 2020, and more than 90% of the 342,000 CC deaths occurred in low-and middle-income countries in 2020~1.

关键词： prevention Cervical epidemiology

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Association of Thallium Exposure with Decreased Renal Function among Chinese Adults—China,2017-2018

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China CDC weekly 2024年第34期6卷 867-871,I0007-I0010页

作者： Zheng Zhang Miao Zhang Yingli Qu Feng Zhao Saisai Ji Zheng Li Bing Wu Chunxian Lyu Haocan Song Qi Sun Yawei Li Xu Zhang Xulin Zheng Yidan Qiu Zihan Lu Hui Fu Lanjing Xu Wenli Zhang Yufei Luo Fangyu Li Jiayi Cai Yuanduo Zhu Ying Zhu Zhaojin Cao Yuebin Lyu Xiaoming Shi China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and population health National Institute of Environmental HealthChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina center for Global health School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing CityJiangsu ProvinceChina Department of Big Data in health Science School of Public HealthZhejiang UniversityHangzhou CityZhejiang ProvinceChina Department of Occupational health and Environment health School of Public HealthAnhui Medical UniversityHefei CityAnhui ProvinceChina School of Public health China Medical UniversityShenyang CityLiaoning ProvinceChina National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases(NITFID) National Institute of Environmental HealthChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina

Summary What is already known about this topic?Thallium(Tl)is significantly more toxic than heavy metals such as lead,cadmium,and ***,previous studies examining the relationship between Tl exposure and the risk of chr... 详细信息

关键词： Renal kidney mercury

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RoBGP:A Chinese Nested Biomedical Named Entity Recognition Model Based on RoBERTa and Global Pointer

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2024年第3期78卷 3603-3618页

作者： Xiaohui Cui Chao Song Dongmei Li Xiaolong Qu Jiao Long Yu Yang Hanchao Zhang School of Information Science and Technology Beijing Forestry UniversityBeijing100083China Engineering research center for Forestry-Oriented Intelligent Information Processing of National Forestry and Grassland Administration Beijing100083China Division of Biostatistics Department of Population HealthGrossman School of MedicineNew York UniversityNew York10016USA

Named Entity Recognition(NER)stands as a fundamental task within the field of biomedical text mining,aiming to extract specific types of entities such as genes,proteins,and diseases from complex biomedical texts and categorize them into predefined entity *** process can provide basic support for the automatic construction of knowledge *** contrast to general texts,biomedical texts frequently contain numerous nested entities and local dependencies among these entities,presenting significant challenges to prevailing NER *** address these issues,we propose a novel Chinese nested biomedical NER model based on RoBERTa and Global Pointer(RoBGP).Our model initially utilizes the RoBERTa-wwm-ext-large pretrained language model to dynamically generate word-level initial *** then incorporates a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network for capturing bidirectional semantic information,effectively addressing the issue of long-distance ***,the Global Pointer model is employed to comprehensively recognize all nested entities in the *** conduct extensive experiments on the Chinese medical dataset CMeEE and the results demonstrate the superior performance of RoBGP over several baseline *** research confirms the effectiveness of RoBGP in Chinese biomedical NER,providing reliable technical support for biomedical information extraction and knowledge base construction.

关键词： Biomedicine knowledge base named entity recognition pretrained language model global pointer

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Associations of polygenic risk scores with risks of stroke and its subtypes in Chinese

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Stroke & Vascular Neurology 2024年第4期9卷 399-406,I0044-I0065页

作者： Songchun Yang Zhijia Sun Dong Sun Canqing Yu Yu Guo Dianjianyi Sun Yuanjie Pang Pei Pei Ling Yang Iona Y Millwood Robin G Walters Yiping Chen Huaidong Du Yan Lu Sushila Burgess Daniel Avery Robert Clarke Junshi Chen Zhengming Chen Liming Li Jun Lv On behalf of the China Kadoorie Biobank Collaborative Group Department of Epidemiology&Biostatistics School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijingChina Department of Dermatology Xiangya HospitalCentral South UniversityChangshaHunanChina Peking University center for Public health and Epidemic Preparedness&Response BeijingChina Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases(Peking University) Ministry of EducationBeijingChina Fuwai Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences BeijingChina Medical research Council population health research Unit at the University of Oxford OxfordUK Clinical Trial Service Unit&Epidemiological Studies Unit(CTSU) Nuffield Department of Population HealthUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK NCDs Prevention and Control Department Suzhou CDCSuzhouJiangsuChina China National center for Food Safety Risk Assessment BeijingChina State Key Laboratory of Vascular Homeostasis and Remodeling Peking UniversityBeijingChina 不详

Background and purpose Previous studies,mostly focusing on the European population,have reported polygenic risk scores(PRSs)might achieve risk stratification of *** aimed to examine the association strengths of PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes in the Chinese *** Participants with genome-wide genotypic data in China Kadoorie Biobank were split into a potential training set(n=22191)and a population-based testing set(n=72150).Four previously developed PRSs were included,and new PRSs for stroke and its subtypes were *** PRSs showing the strongest association with risks of stroke or its subtypes in the training set were further evaluated in the testing *** proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association strengths of different PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes(ischaemic stroke(IS),intracerebral haemorrhage(ICH)and subarachnoid haemorrhage(SAH)).Results In the testing set,during 872919 person-years of follow-up,8514 incident stroke events were *** PRSs of any stroke(AS)and IS were both positively associated with risks of AS,IS and ICH(ppopulation,the association strengths of current PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes were moderate,suggesting a limited value for improving risk prediction over traditional risk factors in the context of current genome-wide association study under-representing the East Asia

关键词： testing prediction increment

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