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Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1539-1558页

作者： Yanxin ZHENG Shuanglin LI Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE Lingling SUO Department of Atmospheric Science CMA-CUG Joint Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological HazardsChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Institute of Atmospheric Physics and climate Change research center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory Yichang 443099China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center and bjerknes Centre for climate research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary research on climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

关键词： triple-nested downscaling Three Gorges Reservoir area consecutive rainfall events geological hazards projection

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Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE Ke FAN Huijun WANG Fei LI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center and bjerknes Centre for climate research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence

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Arctic Sea Ice Variations in the First Half of the 20th Century:A New Reconstruction Based on Hydrometeorological Data

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1483-1495,1686-1693页

作者： Vladimir A.SEMENOV Tatiana A.ALDONINA Fei LI Noel Sebastian KEENLYSIDE Lin WANG A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS Moscow 119017Russia Institute of Geography RAS Moscow 119017Russia Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center Bergen 5007Norway center for Monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The shrinking Arctic sea-ice area(SIA) in recent decades is a striking manifestation of the ongoing climate *** of the Arctic sea ice have been continuously observed by satellites since 1979, relatively well monitored since the 1950s, but are highly uncertain in the earlier period due to a lack of observations. Several reconstructions of the historical gridded sea-ice concentration(SIC) data were recently presented based on synthesized regional sea-ice observations or by applying a hybrid model–empirical approach. Here, we present an SIC reconstruction for the period1901–2019 based on established co-variability between SIC and surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and sea level pressure patterns. The reconstructed sea-ice data for March and September are compared to the frequently used Had ISST1.1 and SIBT1850 datasets. Our reconstruction shows a large decrease in SIA from the 1920 to 1940 concurrent with the Early 20th Century Warming event in the Arctic. Such a negative SIA anomaly is absent in Had ISST1.1 data. The amplitude of the SIA anomaly reaches about 0.8 mln km^(2) in March and 1.5 mln km^(2) in September. The anomaly is about three times stronger than that in the SIBT1850 dataset. The larger decrease in SIA in September is largely due to the stronger SIC reduction in the western sector of the Arctic Ocean in the 70°–80°N latitudinal zone. Our reconstruction provides gridded monthly data that can be used as boundary conditions for atmospheric reanalyses and model experiments to study the Arctic climate for the first half of the 20th century.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Arctic climate early 20th century warming climate variability

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The 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Shanghai,Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley:Combined Influences of Multiscale Variabilities

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 593-607页

作者： Ping LIANG Zhiqi ZHANG Yihui DING Zeng-Zhen HU Qi CHEN Key Laboratory of Cities’Mitigation and Adaptation to climate Change in Shanghai Shanghai Regional Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China National climate center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate Prediction center NCEP/NWS/NOAACollege ParkMD 20740USA

In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since *** this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of *** found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global *** mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme *** Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time ***,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking *** warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong *** the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the ***,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.

关键词： extreme heatwave multiscale variability air-sea interaction warming trend Yangtze River Valley Shanghai

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Assessment of corrected time-step method for nominal ionospheric gradient calculation: A comparative analysis with spatial approaches

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2024年第4期8卷 641-649页

作者： Slamet Supriadi Prayitno Abadi Susumu Saito Harry Bangkit Dwiko Unggul Prabowo Adi Purwono Ginaldi Ari Nugroho research center for Smart Mechatronics National Research and Innovation Agency(BRIN)BandungIndonesia research center for climate and Atmosphere BRINBandungIndonesia School of Electrical Engineering Telkom UniversityKab.BandungIndonesia Electronic Navigation research Institute National Institute of MaritimePort and Aviation TechnologyTokyoJapan research center for Space BRINBandungIndonesia

The effect of ionospheric delay on the ground-based augmentation system under normal conditions can be mitigated by determining the value of the nominal ionospheric gradient(σvig).The nominal ionospheric gradient is generally obtained from Continuously Operating Reference Stations data by using the spatial single-difference method(mixed-pair,station-pair,or satellite-pair)or the temporal single-difference method(time-step).The time-step method uses only a single receiver,but it still contains ionospheric temporal *** introduce a corrected time-step method using a fixed-ionospheric pierce point from the geostationary equatorial orbit satellite and test it through simulations based on the global ionospheric *** also investigate the effect of satellite paths on the corrected time-step method in the region of the equator,which tends to be in a more north–south direction and to have less coverage for the east–west ionospheric *** study also addresses the limitations of temporal variation correction coverage and recommends using only the correction from *** processes are developed under simulations because observational data are still difficult to *** findings demonstrate that the corrected time-step method yieldsσvig values consistent with other approaches.

关键词： ground-based augmentation system nominal ionospheric gradient time-step correction global ionospheric model

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Flow Injection Analysis Technique for Online Preconcentration of Lead Ions in Airborne Particulate Matter Using Imprinted Polymer as the Sorbent

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Journal of Analysis and Testing 2024年第2期8卷 180-190页

作者： Muhammad Bachri Amran Novita Ambarsari Muhammad Ali Zulfikar Asri Indrawati Rusnadi Rusnadi Saipul Hamdi Analytical Chemistry Division Faculty of Mathematics and Natural SciencesInstitut Teknologi BandungBandung 40132Indonesia research center for climate and Atmosphere National Research and Innovation AgencyBandung 40135Indonesia

This work reported a simple and sensitive flow injection analysis(FIA)technique coupled with a Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer(FAAS)for online preconcentration of lead(Ⅱ)ions in the airborne particulate matter samples(PM_(2.5))using ion-imprinted polymers as adsorbent packed in minicolumn.A bulk polymerization method was chosen to synthesize the polymer based on a ternary complex of lead ions with 4-2-pyridilazo resorcinol and 4-vinyl pyridine with methacrylic acid as a functional *** optimum pH for sorption was 6,and other variables for the FIA system were optimized,including breakthrough volume,eluent concentration,and eluent *** optimum conditions were reached with a breakthrough volume of 4.45 mL,calculated as a dynamic retention capacity of 5.20 mg/g of Pb(II)40 mg/L,with a 1.5 mL/min flow *** eluent used for the FIA system was 0.5 mL HNO_(3)of 3 mol/***,precision,and limits of detection of the FIA system were determined before being applied to preconcentration and analysis of lead ions in PM_(2.5)*** precision of the method was determined to be 3.09%by calculating the coefficients of the *** of the method in the concentration range of 50-1000μg/L gave a coefficient correlation of 0.9925,showing a good response,and the limit of detection of the system was 5.11μg/L,better than that of the FAAS *** of the FIA system were evaluated and showed good results with an enrichment factor of more than 20 times higher and a concentration efficiency of 11.65 min^(-1)with a consumptive index of 4.5 *** and analysis of the PM_(2.5)samples in Bandung City showed the concentrations of Pb(II)were 26.67μg/L and 33.3μg/L with the accuracy of the method for each sample of104.75%and 107.86%.

关键词： Flow injection analysis Lead(II)ions Imprinted polymer Particulate matter

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Climatic impacts induced by winter wheat irrigation over North China simulated by the nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7

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Advances in climate Change research 2024年第2期15卷 197-210页

作者： Jia WU Zhen-Yu HAN Xue-Jie GAO Zheng-Jia LIU National climate Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory for climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate Change research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Quantification of the impact of winter wheat irrigation on the climate and the occurrence of extreme climatic events over North China is crucial for regional adaptation *** related studies mainly focused on the impact on surface processes;however,few focused on the effects of extreme events using high-resolution nonhydrostatic regional climate ***,the 9-km-resolution nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7 was coupled with a crop irrigation scheme and an updated winter wheat irrigation dataset to better simulate irrigation *** experiments were conducted with and without winter wheat irrigation to isolate the effects of *** showed that irrigation simulation reduces the model biases in temperature,precipitation,latent heat flux,soil moisture,sensitive heat flux,and top-layer soil ***,it also reduces the bias and increases the correlation with observations obtained in irrigated areas,especially in summer,indicating better representation of irrigation *** wheat irrigation tends to cause substantial cooling of the local surface maximum,minimum,and mean air temperatures(by-1.68,-0.34,and-0.79℃,respectively)over irrigated areas of North China,with the largest changes observed in relation to maximum ***,precipitation is found to increase during spring and summer,which is strongly related to water vapor transport in the lower levels of the *** analyses indicated that the number of annual mean hot days decrease(-13.9 d),whereas the number of both comfort days(+10.2 d)and rainy days(days with total precipitation greater than 1 mm:+6.6 d)increase over irrigated areas,demonstrating beneficial feedback to human perception and ***,although the heat wave risk increases(number of annual mean heat wave days:+5.8 d),the impact is limited to small areas within irrigated ***,no notable change was found in terms of heavy rainfall events and precipitation intensity

关键词： Nonhydrostatic regional climate model Irrigation effect Extreme events North China

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Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1511-1526页

作者： Shengping HE Helge DRANGE Tore FUREVIK Huijun WANG Ke FAN Lise Seland GRAFF Yvan J.ORSOLINI Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5020Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center Bergen 5007Norway Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 211544China Nansen-Zhu International research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 511458China School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo 0313Norway Norwegian Institute for Air research Kjeller 2007Norway

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

关键词： Arctic sea ice loss warm Arctic–cold East Asia atmospheric internal variability large-ensemble simulation NorESM2 PAMIP

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State of China’s climate in 2023

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第5期17卷 54-60页

作者： Linhai Sun Xiaying Zhu Wei Li Wanxiu Ai Xianyan Chen Yundi Jiang Ling Wang Xukai Zou Shanshan Zhao Hongling Zeng Hailing Zhong National climate center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijingChina

China witnessed a warm and dry climate in *** annual surface air temperature reached a new high of 10.71℃,with the hottest autumn and the second hottest summer since ***,the annual precipitation was the second lowest since 2012,at 615.0 *** was less than normal from winter to summer,but more in *** with the annual condition,precipitation in the flood season from May to September was also the second lowest since 2012,which was 4.3%less than normal,with the anomalies in the central and eastern parts of China being higher in central areas and lower in the north and *** the contrary,the West China Autumn Rain brought much more rainfall than normal,with an earlier start and later *** there was less annual precipitation in 2023,China suffered seriously from heavy precipitation events and *** particular,from the end of July to the beginning of August,a rare,extremely strong rainstorm caused by Typhoon Dussuri hit Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei,causing an abrupt alteration from drought to flood conditions in North *** contrast,Southwest China experienced continuous drought from the previous autumn to current *** early summer,North China and the Huanghuai region experienced the strongest high-temperature process since ***,there were more cold-air processes than normal impacting China,with the most severe of the year occurring in ***,in spring,there were more sand and dust occurrences in northern China.

关键词： climate in China Hottest year Extreme events Dussuri

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climate state of the Three Gorges Region in the Yangtze River basin in 2022–2023

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第5期17卷 61-66页

作者： Tong Cui Xianyan Chen Xukai Zou Linhai Sun Qiang Zhang Hongling Zeng National climate center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijingChina

Based on daily observation data of the Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River basin and global reanalysis data,the climate characteristics,climate events,and meteorological disasters of the TGR in 2022 and 2023 were *** the TGR,the average annual temperature for 2022 and 2023 was 0.8℃ and 0.4℃ higher than normal,respectively,making them the two warmest years in the past *** 2022,the TGR experienced its warmest summer on *** average air temperature was 2.4℃ higher than the average,and there were 24.8 days of above-average high temperature days during *** in the TGR varied significantly between 2022 and *** rainfall was 18.4%below normal and drier than normal in most parts of the *** contrast,the precipitation in 2023 was considerably higher than the long-term average,and above normal for almost the entire *** average wind speed exhibited minimal variation between the two ***,the number of foggy days and relative humidity increased in 2023 compared to *** 2022–2023,the TGR mainly experienced meteorological disasters such as extreme high temperatures,regional heavy rain and flooding,overcast rain,and inverted spring *** indicates that the abnormal western Pacific subtropical high and the abnormal persistence of the eastward-shifted South Asian high were the two important drivers of the durative enhancement of record-breaking high temperature in the summer of 2022.

关键词： Three Gorges Region climate state Extreme high temperature Torrential summer rainfall climate analysis

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