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Intertwined depressive and cognitive trajectories and the risk of dementia and death in older adults:a competing risk analysis

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General Psychiatry 2024年第2期37卷 207-215页

作者： Ziyang Ren Lirong Nie Yushan Du Jufen Liu Institute of Reproductive and Child Health/National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health Peking UniversityBeijingChina Department of Epidemiology and biostatistics School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijingChina

Background Depressive symptoms and cognitive impairment often interact,rendering their associations *** date,their joint trajectories and associations with dementia and death remain *** To explore the interactions between depressive symptoms and cognitive function,their developmental trajectories and the associations with all-cause dementia,Alzheimer’s disease(AD)and all-cause death in older *** Data were from the Health and Retirement *** symptoms and cognitive function were measured using the 8-item Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale and the Telephone Interview of Cognitive Status,***-cause dementia and AD were defined by self-reported or proxy-reported physician ***-cause death was determined by *** restricted cubic spline,group-based trajectory modelling and subdistribution hazard regression were *** Significant interactions between depressive symptoms and cognitive function in 2010 in their association with new-onset all-cause dementia and AD from 2010 to 2020 were found,especially in women(p for interaction<0.05).Independent trajectory analysis showed that emerging or high(vs no)depressive trajectories and poor or rapidly decreased cognitive trajectories(vs very good)from 1996 to 2010 were at significantly higher risk of subsequent all-cause dementia,AD and all-cause death.15 joint trajectories of depressive symptoms and cognitive function from 1996 to 2010 were determined,where rapidly decreased cognitive function was more common in those with no depressive *** with older adults with the trajectory of no depressive symptoms and very good cognitive function,those with the trajectory of no depressive symptoms but rapidly decreased cognitive function were much more likely to develop new-onset all-cause dementia and death,with subdistribution hazard ratios(95%confidence intervals)of 4.47(2.99 to 6.67)and 1.84(1.43 to 2.36),especially in wome

关键词： death analysis rendering

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Bayesian modeling of dynamic behavioral change during an epidemic

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Infectious Disease modelling 2023年第4期8卷 947-963页

作者： Caitlin Ward Rob Deardon Alexandra M.Schmidt Division of biostatistics University of MinnesotaMinneapolisMNUSA Faculty of Veterinary Medicine University of CalgaryCalgaryABCanada Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of CalgaryCalgaryABCanada Department of Epidemiology Biostatisticsand Occupational HealthMontrealQCCanada

For many infectious disease outbreaks,the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity,causing the transmission dynamics to change in *** change is often ignored in epidemic modeling efforts,making these models less useful than they could *** address this by introducing a novel class of datadriven epidemic models which characterize and accurately estimate behavioral *** proposed model allows time-varying transmission to be captured by the level of“alarm”in the population,with alarm specified as a function of the past epidemic *** investigate the estimability of the population alarm across a wide range of scenarios,applying both parametric functions and non-parametric functions using splines and Gaussian *** model is set in the data-augmented Bayesian framework to allow estimation on partially observed epidemic *** benefit and utility of the proposed approach is illustrated through applications to data from real epidemics.

关键词： Bayesian inference Compartmental model SIR SEIR Transmission modeling

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Liver resection versus liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma within Milan criteria:a meta-analysis of 18,421 patients

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Hepatobiliary Surgery and Nutrition 2022年第1期11卷 78-93,I0009-I0013页

作者： Jin Hean Koh Darren Jun Hao Tan Yuki Ong Wen Hui Lim Cheng Han Ng Phoebe Wen Lin Tay Jie Ning Yong Mark D.Muthiah Eunice X.Tan Ning Qi Pang Beom Kyung Kim Nicholas Syn Alfred Kow Brian K.P.Goh Daniel Q.Huang Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine National University of SingaporeSingaporeSingapore Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Department of MedicineNational University HospitalSingaporeSingapore National University Centre for Organ Transplantation National University Health SystemSingaporeSingapore Division of Hepatobiliary&Pancreatic Surgery Department of SurgeryNational University HospitalSingaporeSingapore Department of Internal Medicine Yonsei University College of MedicineSeoulRepublic of Korea Yonsei Liver Center Severance HospitalYonsei University Health SystemSeoulRepublic of Korea biostatistics and modelling domain Saw Swee Hock School of Public HealthNational University of Singapore and National University Health SystemSingaporeSingapore Department of Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary and Transplant Surgery Division of SurgerySingapore General HospitalSingaporeSingapore Liver Transplant Service SingHealth Duke-NUS Transplant CentreSingaporeSingapore

Background:Outcomes after liver resection(LR)and liver transplantation(LT)for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)are heterogenous and may vary by region,over time periods and disease *** aimed to compare overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS)between LT versus LR for HCC within the Milan ***:Two authors independently searched Medline and Embase databases for studies comparing survival after LT and LR for patients with HCC meeting the Milan ***-analyses and meta-regression were conducted using random-effects ***:We screened 2,278 studies and included 35 studies with 18,421 *** was associated with poorer OS[hazard ratio(HR)=1.44;95%confidence interval(CI):1.14-1.81;P<0.01]and DFS(HR=2.71;95%CI:2.23-3.28;P<0.01)compared to LT,with similar findings among intention-to-treat(ITT)*** uninodular disease,OS in LR was comparable to LT(P=0.13)but DFS remained poorer(HR=2.95;95%CI:2.30-3.79;P<0.01).By region,LR had poorer OS versus LT in North America and Europe(P≤0.01),but not Asia(P=0.25).LR had inferior survival versus LT in studies completed before 2010(P=0.01),but not after 2010(P=0.12).Cohorts that underwent enhanced surveillance had comparable OS after LT and LR(P=0.33),but cohorts undergoing usual surveillance had worse OS after LR(HR=1.95;95%CI:1.24-3.07;P<0.01).Conclusions:Mortality after LR for HCC is nearly 50%higher compared to *** between LR and LT were similar in uninodular *** risk of recurrence after LR is threefold that of LT.

关键词： Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) liver resection(LR) liver transplant survival recurrence

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Exploring predictive frameworks for malaria in Burundi

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Infectious Disease modelling 2022年第2期7卷 33-44页

作者： Lionel Divin Mfisimana Emile Nibayisabe Kingsley Badu David Niyukuri Faculte des Sciences Fondamentales Institut Superieur des Cadres MilitairesBurundi Department of Theoretical and Applied Biology Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and TechnologyGhana Division of Epidemiology&biostatistics Faculty of Medicine and Health SciencesStellenbosch UniversityCape TownSouth Africa The South African Department of Science and TechnologyeNational Research Foundation(DST-NRF)Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological modelling and Analysis(SACEMA) Stellenbosch UniversityCape TownSouth Africa

In Burundi,malaria infection has been increasing in the last decade despite efforts to increase access to health services,and several intervention *** use of heterogeneous data can help to build predictive models of malaria *** built predictive frameworks:the generalized linear model(GLM),and artificial neural network(ANN),to predict malaria cases in four sub-groups and the overall general *** results showed that more than half of malaria infections are observed in pregnant women and children under 5 years,with high burden to children between 12 and 59 *** results showed that,ANN model performed better in predicting total cases compared to *** model frameworks showed that education rates and Insecticide Treated Bed Nets(ITNs)had decreasing effects on malaria cases,some other variables had an increasing ***,malaria control and prevention interventions program are encouraged to understand those variables,and take appropriate measures such as providing ITNs,sensitization in schools and the communities,starting within high dense communities,among *** prediction of cases can provide timely information needed to be proactive for intervention strategies,and it can help to mitigate the epidemics and reduce its impact on populations and the economy.

关键词： Burundi Malaria modelling Generalized linear model Neural network

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The spatiotemporal analysis of the population migration network in China,

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Infectious Disease modelling 2023年第4期8卷 1117-1126页

作者： Wenjie Li Ye Yao Department of biostatistics School of Public HealthFudan UniversityShanghaiChina Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina

Population migration is a critical component of large-scale spatiotemporal models of infectious disease *** the most influential spreaders in networks is vital to controlling and understanding the spreading process of infectious *** used Baidu Migration data for the whole year of 2021 to build mobility *** nodes of the network represent cities,and the edges represent the population flow between *** applying the k-shell decomposition and the Louvain algorithm,we could get the k-shell values for each city and community ***,we identified the most efficient nodes or pathways in a complex network by generating random ***,we analyzed the eigenvalue of the migration matrix to find the nodes that have the most impact on the *** also found the consistency between k-shell value and eigenvalue through Kendall's t *** main result is that in Spring Festival and National Day,the network is at higher risk of an infectious disease outbreak and the Yangtze River Delta is at the highest risk of an epidemic all year *** is the most significant node in both k-shell value and eigenvalue *** spatiotemporal property of the network should be taken into account to model the transmission of infectious diseases more accurately.

关键词： K-shell decomposition Louvain algorithm Population mobility Infectious disease Network analysis

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The malaria transmission in Anhui province China

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Infectious Disease modelling 2023年第1期8卷 1-10页

作者： Eric Kamana Di Bai Heidi E.Brown Jijun Zhao Complexity Science Institute Qingdao UniversityQingdaoChina Department of Epidemiology and biostatistics Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public HealthThe University of ArizonaTucsonAZUSA

Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum cases have opposite trends in Anhui China in the past *** term and seasonal trends in the transmission rate of *** in Africa has been well studied,however that of *** transmitted by Anopheles sinensis in China has not been *** is a lot of work on the relationship between *** cases and climatic factors in China,with sometimes contradicting ***,how climatic factors affect transmission rate of *** in China is *** used Anhui province as an example to analyze the recent transmission dynamics where two types of malaria have been reported with differing *** examined breakpoints of the *** and *** malaria long term dynamics in the recent *** locally transmitted *** malaria,we analyzed the transmission rate and its seasonality using the combined human and mosquitos SIR-SI model with time-varied mosquito biting *** identified the effects of meteorological factors on the seasonality in transmission rate using a GAM *** the imported *** ma-laria,we analyzed the potential reason for the observed increase in *** breakpoints of *** and *** dynamics happened in a same year,*** seasonality in the transmission rate of *** malaria was high(42.4%)and was linearly associated with temperature and nonlinearly with *** abrupt increase in im-ported *** cases after the breakpoint was significantly related to the increased annual Chinese investment in *** the conditions of the existing vectors of malaria,long-term trends in climatic fac-tors,and increasing trend in migration to/from endemic areas and imported malaria cases,we should be cautious of the possibility of the reestablishment of malaria in regions where it has been eliminated or the establishment of other vector-borne diseases.

关键词： Breakpoint Transmissionrate Biting rate Seasonality Climatic factors

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On modelling relative risks for longitudinal binomial responses:implications from two dueling paradigms

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General Psychiatry 2023年第2期36卷 143-147页

作者： Tuo Lin Rongzhe Zhao Shengjia Tu Hao Wu Hui Zhang Xin M Tu Division of biostatistics and Bioinformatics Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity ScienceUC San DiegoLa JollaCaliforniaUSA College of Environmental Science and Engineering Tongji UniversityShanghaiChina Department of Mathematics and Statistics Georgia State UniversityAtlantaGeorgiaUSA Division of biostatistics Department of Preventive MedicineNorthwestern University Feinberg School of MedicineChicagoIllinoisUSA

Although logistic regression is the most popular for modelling regression relationships with binary responses,many find relative risk(RR),or risk ratio,easier to interpret and prefer to use this measure of risk in regression ***,since Zou published his modified Poisson regression approach for modelling RR for cross-sectional data,his paper has been cited over 7000 times,demonstrating the popularity of this alternative measure of risk in regression analysis involving binary *** longitudinal studies have become increasingly popular in clinical trials and observational studies,it is imperative to extend Zou’s approach for longitudinal *** two most popular approaches for longitudinal data analysis are the generalised linear mixed-effects model(GLMM)and generalised estimating equations(GEE).However,the parametric GLMM cannot be used for the extension within the current context,because Zou’s approach treats the binary response as a Poisson variable,which is at odds with the Bernoulli distribution for the binary *** the other hand,as it imposes no mathematical model on data distributions,the semiparametric GEE is coherent with Zou’s modified Poisson *** this paper,we develop a GEE-based longitudinal model for binary responses to provide inference about RR.

关键词： sectional coherent estimating

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Raising Awareness about Water Issues:The Role of Water Symbolism and Proverbs

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Journal of Water Resource and Protection 2013年第4期5卷 34-39页

作者： Josko Sindik Yoseph Negusse Araya Department of Mathematical modelling and biostatistics Institute for Anthropological ResearchZagrebCroatia Department of Geography Environment and Development StudiesBirkbeck CollegeUniversity of LondonLondonUK

Sustainable water management is one of the global grand challenges of our time. Tackling this challenge through corrective actions would require the participation of the general public, a public with sound awareness of the challenge and commitment. One such awareness raising intervention could be through the use of water symbolism and proverbs, targeted to particular society. Water has the different symbolism and levels of importance to people, depending of their personal characteristics and socio-demographic factors (e.g. gender, age, occupation, residence). Similarly, water proverbs can also demonstrate attitudes towards water among communities, ethnic groups and whole nations. Such meanings and symbolism could help determine attitude and be a powerful tool towards education. In this context, we describe and propose a psychological Health Belief Model (HBM) as a way to explain behaviour and stimulate sustainable water management practice.

关键词： Health Behavior Health Belief Model Water Proverbs Water Symbolism Public Education

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Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting

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Infectious Disease modelling 2017年第1期2卷 56-70页

作者： Alexander E.Zarebski Peter Dawson James M.McCaw Robert Moss School of Mathematics and Statistics The University of MelbourneMelbourneAustralia Land Personnel Protection Branch Land DivisionDefence Science and Technology OrganisationMelbourneAustralia Centre for Epidemiology and biostatistics Melbourne School of Population and Global HealthThe University of MelbourneMelbourneAustralia modelling&Simulation Murdoch Childrens Research InstituteRoyal Childrens HospitalMelbourneAustralia

Epidemics of seasonal influenza inflict a huge burden in temperate climes such as Melbourne(Australia)where there is also significant variability in their timing and *** filters combined with mechanistic transmission models for the spread of influenza have emerged as a popular method for forecasting the progression of these *** extensive research it is still unclear what the optimal models are for forecasting influenza,and how one even measures forecast *** this paper,we present a likelihood-based method,akin to Bayes factors,for model selection when the aim is to select for predictive ***,“predictive skill”is measured by the probability of the data after the forecasting date,conditional on the data from before the forecasting *** this method we choose an optimal model of influenza transmission to forecast the number of laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza in Melbourne in each of the 2010e15 *** basic transmission model considered has the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered structure with extensions allowing for the effects of absolute humidity and inhomogeneous mixing in the *** neither of the extensions provides a significant improvement in fit to the data they do differ in terms of their predictive *** measurements of absolute humidity and a sinusoidal approximation of those measurements are observed to increase the predictive skill of the forecasts,while allowing for inhomogeneous mixing reduces the *** discuss how our work could be integrated into a forecasting system and how the model selection method could be used to evaluate forecasts when comparing to multiple surveillance systems providing disparate views of influenza activity.

关键词： mixing inhomogeneous absolute

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Improving estimates of waning immunity rates in stochastic SIRS models with a hierarchical framework

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Infectious Disease modelling 2023年第4期8卷 1127-1137页

作者： Punya Alahakoon James M.McCaw Peter GTaylor School of Mathematics and Statistics The University of MelbourneMelbourneAustralia Centre for Epidemiology and biostatistics Melbourne School of Population and Global HealthThe University of MelbourneMelbourneAustralia School of Population Health University of New South WalesSydneyAustralia Kirby Institute University of New South WalesSydneyAustralia

As most disease causing pathogens require transmission from an infectious individual to a susceptible individual,continued persistence of the pathogen within the population requires the replenishment of susceptibles through births,immigration,or waning *** the introduction of an unknown infectious disease into a fully susceptible population where it is not known how long immunity is conferred once an individual recovers from ***,initially,the prevalence of disease increases(that is,the infection takes off),the number of infectives will usually decrease to a low level after the first major *** this post-outbreak period,the disease dynamics may be influenced by stochastic effects and there is a non-zero probability that the epidemic will die *** out in this period following the first major outbreak is known as an epidemic *** the disease does not die out,the susceptible population may be replenished by the waning of immunity,and a second wave may *** this study,we investigate if the rate of waning immunity(and other epidemiological parameters)can be reliably estimated from multiple outbreak data,in which some outbreaks display epidemic fade-out and others do *** generated synthetic outbreak data from independent simulations of stochastic SIRS models in multiple *** outbreaks faded-out and some did *** conducted Bayesian parameter estimation under two alternative approaches:independently on each outbreak and under a hierarchical *** conducting independent estimation,the waning immunity rate was poorly estimated and biased towards zero when an epidemic fade-out was ***,under a hierarchical approach,we obtained more accurate and precise posterior estimates for the rate of waning immunity and other epidemiological *** greatest improvement in estimates was obtained for those communities in which epidemic fade-out was observed.

关键词： estimates stochastic estimation

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