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Improved forecasting via physics-guided machine learning as exemplified using“21·7”extreme rainfall event in Henan

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1652-1674页

作者： Qi ZHONG Zhicha ZHANG Xiuping YAO Shaoyu HOU Shenming FU Yong CAO Linguo JING China Meteorological Administration Training Center Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Zhejiang Meteorological observatory Hangzhou 310017China Hebei Provincial weather Modification Center Shijiazhuang 050020China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China National Meteorological Center Beijing 100081China School of Computer Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China

As a natural disaster,extreme precipitation is among the most destructive and influential,but predicting its occurrence and evolution accurately is very challenging because of its rarity and *** the example of the“21·7”extreme precipitation event(17–21 July 2021)in Henan Province,this study explores the potential of using physics-guided machine learning to improve the accuracy of forecasting the intensity and location of extreme *** physics-guided ways of embedding physical features,fusing physical model forecasts and revised loss function are used,i.e.,(1)analyzing the anomalous circulation and thermodynamical factors,(2)analyzing the multi-model forecast bias and the associated underlying reasons for it,and(3)using professional forecasting knowledge to design the loss function,and the corresponding results are used as input for machine learning to improve the forecasting *** results indicate that by learning the relationship between anomalous physical features and heavy precipitation,the forecasting of precipitation intensity is improved significantly,but the location is rarely adjusted and more false alarms *** reasons for this are as *** anomalous features used here mainly contain information about large-scale systems and factors which are consistent with the model precipitation deviation;moreover,the samples of extreme precipitation are sparse and so the algorithm used here is ***,by combining“good and different”multi models with machine learning,the advantages of each model are extracted and then the location of the precipitation center in the forecast is improved ***,by combining the appropriate anomalous features with multi-model fusion,an integrated improvement of the forecast of the rainfall intensity and location is ***,this study is a novel exploration to improve the refined forecasting of heavy precipitation with extreme intensity and high variability,

关键词： Extreme precipitation event Refined assessment Anomalous physical features Multi-model fusion Machine learning

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Inversion of O_(2) 1.27 μm nightglow emissions: A climatological analysis using satellite Limb-Viewed spectra and Harmonic analysis method

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2024年第4期8卷 632-640页

作者： YiYi Sui YaJun Zhu QiuYu Chen MaoSheng He JiYao Xu State Key Laboratory of Space weather National Space Science CenterChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190China Key Laboratory of Solar Activity and Space weather National Space Science CenterChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Hainan National Field Science Observation and Research observatory for Space weather National Space Science CenterChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

This study employs a linear inversion algorithm to retrieve volume emission rates(VERs)of molecular O_(2) nightglow at 1.27μm,utilizing Limb-Viewed spectra obtained from the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric for CHartographY(SCIAMACHY)payload on board the Envisat *** retrieved results are compared with VERs data from the SABER payload on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics(TIMED)satellite,exhibiting *** will help to facilitate accurate revelation of spatial distribution and periodic variation in O_(2) *** are extracted monthly within the altitude range of 75-110 km from 2002 to 2012,yielding a climatology of spatial and temporal *** meridional structure exhibits two maxima,at the equator and at 45°*** August and October,the VERs exhibit a meridional bimodal structure,with the weaker one above the equator and the stronger one above 45°*** April,the VERs reach their annual ***,harmonic analysis reveals significant temporal variations on different *** emission shows characteristics of annual and semi-annual variation,and a non-linear long-term trend associated with solar cycle activity.

关键词： VERs O_(2)1.27μm nightglow SCIAMACHY

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An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea from the CMA-TRAMS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 20-28页

作者：李梦婕陈子通戴光丰田群梁卓轩林青张艳霞 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China State Key Laboratory of Severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081 China Guangdong Meteorological observatory Guangzhou 510641 China

Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon *** updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.

关键词： CMA-TRAMS cyclogenesis numerical weather prediction tropical cyclone

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Research progresses and prospects of multi-sphere compound extremes from the Earth System perspective

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 343-374页

作者： Zengchao HAO Yang CHEN College of Water Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China State Key Laboratory of Severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing100081China

Compound extremes,whose socioeconomic and ecological impacts are severer than that caused by each event occurring in isolation,have evolved into a hot topic in Earth Science in the past *** the context of climate change,many compound extremes have exhibited increasing frequency and intensity,and shown novel fashions of combinations,posing more pressing demands and tougher challenges to scientific research and disaster prevention and *** article,via a perspective of multi-sphere interactions within the Earth System,systematically reviews the status quo,new scientific understanding,and deficiencies regarding the definition,mechanism,change,attribution,and projection of compound *** study also sorts out existing challenges and outlines a potential roadmap in advancing the study on compound extremes with respect to data requirement,mechanistic diagnosis,numerical modeling,attribution and projection,risk assessment,and adaptive *** directions of compound extremes studies and key research topics that warrant multi-disciplinary and multisectoral coordinated efforts are also *** that climate change has reshaped the type of extremes,a transformation from the traditional single-event perspective to a compound-event perspective is needed for scientific research,disaster prevention and mitigation,and climate change adaptation,calling for bottom-up innovation in research objects,ideas,and *** article will add value to promoting the research on compound extremes and interdisciplinary cooperations.

关键词： Extremes Compound extremes Climate change and risk Multi-sphere interactions

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Extraordinary hot extreme in summer 2022 over the Yangtze River basin modulated by the La Nina condition under global warming

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 21-30页

作者： Zhen LIAO Yu-Feng YUAN Yang CHEN Pan-Mao ZHAI State Key Laboratory of Severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

A widespread and prolonged hot extreme hit the Yangtze River basin in summer 2022,with 300 sites established new temperature records and nearly 96%stations endured more than 40 hot *** the perspective of the combination effect of the global warming and La Nina condition,potential mechanisms of the hot extreme were *** a record-breaking hot extreme was caused by an extremely strong and westward-shifted western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).The global warming effect contributed primarily to the abnormal hot days in the Yangtze River basin,coupled with the modulation of the La Nina *** sea surface temperature anomaly pattern under La Nina condition favored more convection activities over the western Pacific,encouraging an enhanced and westward-extended *** addition,an observation-based attribution analysis indicates that anthropogenic warming may increase the probability of such extensively persistent hot extremeby1.8 times.

关键词： Hot extreme The Yangtze River basin Global warming Tropical Pacific forcing

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Bivariate attribution of the compound hot and dry summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2122-2136页

作者： Baiquan ZHOU Panmao ZHAI Zhen LIAO State Key Laboratory of Severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The extraordinarily high temperatures experienced during the summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)demand attention when compared with its typical climatic *** absence of precipitation alongside the elevated temperatures resulted in 2022 being the hottest and driest summer on record on the TP since at least *** the susceptibility of the TP to climate change,this study employed large-ensemble simulations from the HadGEM3-A-N216 attribution system,together with a copula-based joint probability distribution,to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing,primarily global greenhouse gas emissions,on this unprecedented compound hot and dry event(CHDE).Findings revealed that the return period for the 2022 CHDE on the TP exceeds 4000 years,as determined from the fitted joint distributions derived using observational data spanning *** CHDE was directly linked to large-scale circulation anomalies,including the control of equivalent-barotropic high-pressure anomalies and the northward displacement of the subtropical westerly jet ***,anthropogenic forcing has,to some extent,promoted the surface warming and increased variability in precipitation on the TP in summer,establishing conditions conducive for the 2022 CHDE from a long-term climate change *** return period for a 2022-like CHDE on the TP was estimated to be approximately 283 years(142-613 years)by the large ensemble forced by both anthropogenic activities and natural ***,ensemble simulations driven solely by natural forcing indicated that the likelihood of occurrence of a 2022-like CHDE was almost *** outcomes underscore that the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the probability of a 2022-like CHDE was 100%,implying that without anthropogenically induced global warming,a comparable CHDE akin to that observed in 2022 on the TP would not be possible.

关键词： Compound hot and dry event Tibetan Plateau Bivariate event attribution Anthropogenic forcing

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The Performance of Downward Shortwave Radiation Products from Satellite and Reanalysis over the Transect of Zhongshan Station to Dome A, East Antarctica

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1574-1588,1671-1675页

作者： Jiajia JIA Zhaoliang ZENG Wenqian ZHANG Xiangdong ZHENG Yaqiang WANG Minghu DING State Key Laboratory of Severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

The downward shortwave radiation(DSR) is an important part of the Earth's energy balance, driving Earth's system's energy, water, and carbon cycles. Due to the harsh Antarctic environment, the accuracy of DSR derived from satellite and reanalysis has not been systematically evaluated over the transect of Zhongshan station to Dome A, East ***, this study aims to evaluate DSR reanalysis products(ERA5-Land, ERA5, MERRA-2) and satellite products(CERES and ICDR) in this area. The results indicate that DSR exhibits obvious monthly and seasonal variations, with higher values in summer than in winter. The ERA5-Land(ICDR) DSR product demonstrated the highest(lowest) accuracy,as evidenced by a correlation coefficient of 0.988(0.918), a root-mean-square error of 23.919(69.383) W m^(–2), a mean bias of –1.667(–28.223) W m^(–2) and a mean absolute error of 13.37(58.99) W m^(–2). The RMSE values for the ERA5-Land reanalysis product at seven stations, namely Zhongshan, Panda 100, Panda 300, Panda 400, Taishan, Panda 1100, and Kunlun, were 30.938, 29.447, 34.507, 29.110, 20.339, 17.267, and 14.700 W m^(-2), respectively;with corresponding bias values of 9.887, –12.159, –19.181, –15.519, –8.118, 6.297, and 3.482 W m^(–2). Regarding seasonality, ERA5-Land, ERA5,and MERRA-2 reanalysis products demonstrate higher accuracies during spring and summer, while ICDR products are least accurate in autumn. Cloud cover, water vapor, total ozone, and severe weather are the main factors affecting DSR. The error of DSR products is greatest in coastal areas(particularly at the Zhongshan station) and decreases towards the inland areas of Antarctica.

关键词： downward shortwave radiation East Antarctic reanalysis product satellite product validation

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Raindrop Size Distributions in the Zhengzhou Extreme Rainfall Event on 20 July 2021:Temporal-Spatial Variability and Implications for Radar QPE

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 489-503页

作者： Liman CUI Haoran LI Aifang SU Yang ZHANG Xiaona LYU Le XI Yuanmeng ZHANG Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique China Meteorological AdministrationZhengzhou450003China State Key Laboratory of Severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Henan Meteorological observatory Zhengzhou450003China

In this study,a regional Parsivel OTT disdrometer network covering urban Zhengzhou and adjacent areas is employed to investigate the temporal-spatial variability of raindrop size distributions(DSDs)in the Zhengzhou extreme rainfall event on 20 July *** rain rates observed by disdrometers and rain gauges from six operational sites are in good agreement,despite significant site-to-site variations of 24-h accumulated rainfall ranging from 198.3 to 624.1 *** Parsivel OTT observations show prominent temporal-spatial variations of DSDs,and the most drastic change was registered at Zhengzhou Station where the record-breaking hourly rainfall of 201.9 mm over 1500-1600 LST(local standard time)was *** hourly rainfall is characterized by fairly high concentrations of large raindrops,and the mass-weighted raindrop diameter generally increases with the rain rate before reaching the equilibrium state of DSDs with the rain rate of about 50 mm h^(−1).Besides,polarimetric radar observations show the highest differential phase shift(K_(dp))and differential reflectivity(Z_(dr))near surface over Zhengzhou Station from 1500 to 1600 *** light of the remarkable temporal-spatial variability of DSDs,a reflectivity-grouped fitting approach is proposed to optimize the reflectivity-rain rate(Z-R)parameterization for radar quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE),and the rain gauge measurements are used for *** results show an increase of mean bias ratio from 0.57 to 0.79 and a decrease of root-mean-square error from 23.69 to 18.36 for the rainfall intensity above 20.0 mm h^(−1),as compared with the fixed Z-R *** study reveals the drastic temporal-spatial variations of rain microphysics during the Zhengzhou extreme rainfall event and warrants the promise of using reflectivity-grouped fitting Z-R relationships for radar QPE of such events.

关键词： extreme rainfall raindrop size distribution radar quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE)

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Two methods for separating the magnetospheric solar wind charge exchange soft X-ray emission from the diffuse X-ray background

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2024年第1期8卷 119-132页

作者： YingJie Zhang TianRan Sun JenniferACarter WenHao Liu Steve Sembay ShuiNai Zhang Li Ji Chi Wang State Key Laboratory of Space weather National Space Science CenterChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences The University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China School of Physics and Astronomy The University of LeicesterLeicesterUK Purple Mountain observatory Chinese Academy of SciencesNanjing 210008China

Solar wind charge exchange(SWCX)is the process of solar wind high-valence ions exchanging charges with neutral components and generating soft ***,detecting the SWCX emission from the magnetosphere is proposed as a new technique to study the magnetosphere using panoramic soft X-ray *** better prepare for the data analysis of upcoming magnetospheric soft X-ray imaging missions,this paper compares the magnetospheric SWCX emission obtained by two methods in an XMM-Newton observation,during which the solar wind changed *** two methods differ in the data used to fit the diffuse X-ray background(DXB)parameters in spectral *** method adding data from the ROSAT All-Sky Survey(RASS)is called the RASS *** method using the quiet observation data is called the Quiet method,where quiet observations usually refer to observations made by the same satellite with the same target but under weaker solar wind *** show that the spectral compositions of magnetospheric SWCX emission obtained by the two methods are very similar,and the changes in intensity over time are highly consistent,although the intensity obtained by the RASS method is about 2.68±0.56 keV cm^(-2)s^(-1)sr^(-1)higher than that obtained by the Quiet *** the DXB intensity obtained by the RASS method is about 2.84±0.74 keV cm^(-2)s^(-1)sr^(-1)lower than that obtained by the Quiet method,and the linear correlation coefficient between the difference of SWCX and DXB obtained by the two methods in diffe rent energy band is close to-1,the diffe rences in magnetospheric SWCX can be fully attributed to the diffe rences in the fitted *** difference between the two methods is most significant when the energy is less than 0.7 keV,which is also the main energy band of SWCX *** addition,the difference between the two methods is not related to the SWCX intensity and,to some extent,to solar wind conditions,because SWCX intensity typically va ries with the

关键词： solar wind charge exchange(SWCX) ROSAT All-Sky Survey(RASS) soft X-ray X-ray imaging magnetosphere

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Study of factors influencing the occurrence rate of 60 Hz power line radiation in the topside ionosphere:A systematic survey using the CSES satellite

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Science China(Technological Sciences) 2024年第6期67卷 1879-1892页

作者： MA ZhenHui ZHAO ShuFan LIAO Li SHEN XuHui LU HengXin School of Emergency Management Science and Engineering University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China State Key Laboratory of Space weather National Space Science CenterChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100190China Key Laboratory of Solar Activity and Space weather National Space Science CenterChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100190China National Institute of Natural Hazards Ministry of Emergency Management of ChinaBeijing100085China Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake AdministrationBeijing100081China

We analyze the topside ionosphere power line radiation(PLR)at 60 Hz over the US using electric field data collected by CSES satellite between January 2019 and December *** study aimed to further investigate the month-to-month variation characteristic of PLR occurrence rate observed by satellite and its several influencing factors,including solar radiation,lightning activity,and try to clarify the influence of electricity *** results show that the solar radiation(solar zenith angle and F10.7)plays a major role in the variation of the PLR occurrence rate,and that there is no direct connection with the number of *** the relationship between PLR occurrence rate and electricity consumption,the low occurrence rate associated with decreased weekend electricity consumption was not observed in the ***,there is a significant difference in PLR occurrence rate between the East and West Coasts of the US at the same latitude during the same time period,suggesting that the significant difference in PLR occurrence rate is caused by the significant difference in electricity consumption between the two *** excluding the effect of solar radiation on PLR occurrence rate,we concluded that only a significant difference in regional electricity consumption could lead to a corresponding change in PLR occurrence rate detected by the Low-Earth-Orbit ***,we also found there is seasonal variation in the diurnal differences of the PLR occurrence rate caused by seasonal variation of the lower ionosphere.

关键词： CSES satellite power line radiation occurrence rate solar radiation lightning activity electricity consumption

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