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Initiation,organizational modes and environmental conditions of severe convective wind events during the warm season over North China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第9期67卷 2876-2894页

作者： Yue HUANG Jianhua SUN Yuanchun ZHANG Ruoyun MA Xinlin YANG Fuyou TIAN Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms(LACS) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China College of aviation Meteorology Civil Aviation Flight University of ChinaGuanghan 618307China National meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Based on the significant weather report,CG lightning,composite radar reflectivity,and ERA5 reanalysis data,we first studied the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of four types(only severe convective wind(SCW);SCW and hail;SCW and short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR);and SCW,hail,and SDHR)of convective weather events related to SCW during the warm season(May to September)from 2011 to 2018 in North ***,severe convective cases producing SCW were selected to statistically analyze the initiation,decay,lifetime,and organizational characteristics of convective ***,using ERA5 reanalysis data and conventional surface observation data,preconvective soundings were constructed to explore the differences in environmental conditions for initiating convective systems between SCW and *** results indicate that mixed-type of SCW and SDHR events occur more frequently over plains,while other types of convective weather occur more frequently over *** frequency peak of SCW occurs in June,while mixed convective weather peaks in *** initiation time of convective systems is concentrated between 1000 and 1300 BST,with a peak at 1200 *** mountains,the daily peaks of ordinary and significant SCW generally occur at 1700-1800 BST and 1600-1700 BST,respectively,while over plains,the peak of ordinary SCW typically lags behind that of mountains by 1-2 ***,SCW systems are mainly initiated over mountains,with most lifetimes lasting 7–13 *** convective systems produce the most SCW events,followed by trailing-stratiform convective *** convective available potential energy(CAPE),downdraft convective available potential energy,and the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa can all distinguish between SCW systems and non-SCW systems occurring over *** to non-SCW convective systems,SCW convective systems over mountains are more likely to occur in environments with less precipitable water,while S

关键词： Severe convective wind Convective systems Initiation Organizational modes Environmental conditions

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Tropical Cyclone Monitoring and Analysis Techniques: A Review

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 351-367页

作者： Chuanhai QIAN Ying LI Yinglong XU Xin WANG Zenghai ZHANG Gaozhen NIE Da LIU Shiwen ZHANG institute for Development and Programme Design China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 National meteorological Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 National Satellite meteorological Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

Tropical cyclones(TCs),including tropical depressions and different categories of typhoons,hurricanes,and cyclonic storms,mostly originate over the oceans in the absence of direct ***,detailed monitoring and analysis of TCs has always been an unsolved *** the recent 20 years,great changes have taken place in domestic and foreign TC monitoring techniques,imposing a significant impact on TC operations and *** new technologies and products gradually emerge to support operations,with improved monitoring *** this paper,the progress on TC monitoring and analysis via meteorological satellites,radars,and airplanes in China and the world is reviewed,compared,and summarized,with special focuses on multisatellite fusion observations,in situ aircraft measurements,and some unconventional observation equipment such as rockets,saildrones,and underwater *** this basis,the paper points out future directions for improving TC monitoring and analysis in aid of better TC forecast and early warning.

关键词： tropical cyclone(TC) monitoring and analysis meteorological satellite aircraft reconnaissance

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Variations in Column Concentration of Greenhouse Gases in China and Their Response to the 2015-2016 El Niño Event

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 608-619页

作者： Ningwei LIU Lingjun XIA Youjun DOU Shaorou DONG Jing WEN Ying WANG Rui FENG Ruonan WANG Yuhe LI institute of Atmospheric Environment China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Jiangxi Ecological Meteorology Centre Nanchang330096China beijing Xiangyuan Academy of meteorological Observing Technology Beijing100081China Climate Centre of Guangdong Province Guangzhou510641China Guangdong meteorological Service Guangzhou510062China Liaoning Provincial meteorological Equipment Support Centre Shenyang110166China meteorological Centre of Northeast Air Traffic Administration of Civil aviation of China Shenyang110161China

Since the industrial revolution,enhancement of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations as a result of human activities has been the primary cause of global *** monitoring and evaluation of greenhouse gases are significant prerequisites for carbon emission *** monthly data of global atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2))and methane(CH4)column concentrations(hereinafter XCO_(2) and XCH_(4),respectively)retrieved by the Greenhouse Gas Observation Satellite(GOSAT),we analyzed the variations in XCO_(2)and XCH_(4)in China during 2010-2022 after confirming the reliability of the ***,the influence of a strong El Niño event in 2015-2016 on XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) variations in China was further *** results show that the retrieved XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) from GOSAT have similar temporal variation trends and significant correlations with the ground observation and emission inventory data of an atmospheric background station,which could be used to assess the variations in XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) in ***_(2) is high in spring and winter while XCH_(4) is high in *** XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) gradually declined from Southeast China to Northwest and Northeast China,with variation ranges of 401-406 and 1.81-1.88 ppmv,respectively;and the high value areas are located in the middle-lower Yangtze River ***_(2) and XCH_(4) in China increased as a whole during 2010-2022,with rapid enhancement and high levels of XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) in several *** significant increases in XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) over China in 2016 might be closely related to the strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)event during *** a global warming background in 2015,XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) increased by 0.768%and 0.657%in 2016 in *** analysis reveals that both the XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) variations might reflect the significant impact of the ENSO event on glacier melting in the Tibetan Plateau.

关键词： greenhouse gases column concentration CO_(2) CH4 El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) El Niño

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Impact of Sky Conditions on Net Ecosystem Productivity over a “Floating Blanket” Wetland in Southwest China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第2期41卷 355-368页

作者： Yamei SHAO Huizhi LIU Qun DU Yang LIU Jihua SUN Yaohui LI Jinlian LI State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China Yunnan meteorological Observatory Kunming 530100China College of aviation Meteorology Civil Aviation Flight University of ChinaGuanghan 618307China meteorological Bureau of Tengchong County Baoshan 679100China

Based on eddy covariance(EC) measurements during 2016–20, the effects of sky conditions on the net ecosystem productivity(NEP) over a subtropical “floating blanket ” wetland were investigated. Sky conditions were divided into overcast, cloudy, and sunny conditions. On the half-hourly timescale, the daytime NEP responded more rapidly to the changes in the total photosynthetic active radiation(PARt) under overcast and cloudy skies than that under sunny skies. The increase in the apparent quantum yield under overcast and cloudy conditions was the greatest in spring and the least in summer. Additionally, lower atmospheric vapor pressure deficit(VPD) and moderate air temperature were more conducive to enhancing the apparent quantum yield under cloudy skies. On the daily timescale, NEP and the gross primary production(GPP) were higher under cloudy or sunny conditions than those under overcast conditions across seasons. The daily NEP and GPP during the wet season peaked under cloudy skies. The daily ecosystem light use efficiency(LUE) and water use efficiency(WUE) during the wet season also changed with sky conditions and reached their maximum under overcast and cloudy skies, respectively. The diffuse photosynthetic active radiation(PAR_d) and air temperature were primarily responsible for the variation of daily NEP from half-hourly to monthly timescales, and the direct photosynthetic active radiation(PAR_b) had a secondary effect on NEP. Under sunny conditions, PAR_b and air temperature were the dominant factors controlling daily NEP. While daily NEP was mainly controlled by PAR_d under cloudy and overcast conditions.

关键词： diffuse radiation eddy covariance NEP controlling factors wetland path analysis

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Sensitivity Simulations of the 30 March 2020 Xichang Wildfire in Southwest China Based on the WRF-Fire Model

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第4期38卷 826-843页

作者： Yujue LIU Shiguang MIAO Hanbin ZHANG institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 Key Laboratory of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089

This paper describes a fire forecast system—Weather Research and Forecasting-Fire(WRF-Fire)—that is employed to simulate a real wildfire case in Xichang,Sichuan Province,Southwest China on 30 March 2020 at a 100-m resolution over the fire area,in order to provide a fine representation of the terrain and fuel heterogeneities and explicitly resolve the atmospheric *** sensitivity experiments were conducted to analyze the impacts of atmospheric model grid spacing and fire–atmosphere interaction on simulated meteorological fields and fire *** results indicate that finer horizontal grid spacing in the atmospheric model improves the accuracy of wind,temperature,and moisture simulations in the near surface ***,it can better describe local wind field characteristics,capture microscale wind speed fluctuations,and produce more significant effect from fire–atmosphere *** mass and energy released by the fire model and its feedback to the atmospheric model exhibit enhanced heterogeneous *** simulated fire area aligns well with the observation,with KAPPA coefficient(KC)of 0.56–0.59 and spatial correlation coefficient(SC) of 0.52–*** this real case,the influence of heterogeneous land surface on the fire behavior is much greater than the atmosphere–fire *** study suggests that WRFFire holds high potential as a real wildfire simulation tool,offering a new and feasible approach for fire prediction.

关键词： Weather Research and Forecasting-Fire wildfire coupled fire–atmosphere modeling fire behavior large-eddy simulation(LES)

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Multimodel Ensemble Forecast of Global Horizontal Irradiance at PV Power Stations Based on Dynamic Variable Weight

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第3期30卷 327-336页

作者： YUAN Bin SHEN Yan-bo DENG Hua YANG Yang CHEN Qi-ying YE Dong MO Jing-yue YAO Jin-feng LIU Zong-hui Public meteorological Service Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Key Laboratory of Energy Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Guangzhou institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510641 China institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 China Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China institute of Desert Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationUrumqi 830002 China

In the present study,multimodel ensemble forecast experiments of the global horizontal irradiance(GHI)were conducted using the dynamic variable weight *** study was based on the forecasts of four numerical models,namely,the China meteorological Administration Wind Energy and Solar Energy Prediction System,the Mesoscale Weather Numerical Prediction System of China meteorological Administration,the China meteorological Administration Regional Mesoscale Numerical Prediction System-Guangdong,and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Solar,and observational data from four photovoltaic(PV)power stations in Yangjiang City,Guangdong *** results show that compared with those of the monthly optimal numerical model forecasts,the dynamic variable weight-based ensemble forecasts exhibited 0.97%-15.96%smaller values of the mean absolute error and 3.31%-18.40%lower values of the root mean square error(RMSE).However,the increase in the correlation coefficient was not ***,the multimodel ensemble mainly improved the performance of GHI forecasts below 700 W m-2,particularly below 400 W m-2,with RMSE reductions as high as 7.56%-28.28%.In contrast,the RMSE increased at GHI levels above 700 W *** for the key period of PV power station output(02:00-07:00),the accuracy of GHI forecasts could be improved by the multimodel ensemble:the multimodel ensemble could effectively decrease the daily maximum absolute error(AE max)of GHI ***,with increasing forecasting difficulty under cloudy conditions,the multimodel ensemble,which yields data closer to the actual observations,could simulate GHI fluctuations more accurately.

关键词： GHI forecast multimodel ensemble dynamic variable weight PV power station

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A Brief of Cold Spell Warning Actions of the National meteorological Center of China meteorological Administration

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China CDC weekly 2024年第5期6卷 88-91页

作者： Taiyuan Zhang Mengxue Zhang Qiutong Li Yu Lan Huafeng meteorological Media Group of China meteorological Administration(CMA) BeijingChina National institute of Environmental Health Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina The National meteorological Center of China meteorological Administration(CMA) BeijingChina

The“Outline for High-Quality Development of Meteorology(2022-2035)”was published by the State Council of the People’s Republic of China in April 2022(1).This publication highlights the essential role of meteorological disaster warnings,particularly cold spell warnings,in preventing and mitigating *** outline also sets forth stricter expectations for enhancing the overall capacity of society in terms of meteorological disaster preparedness and response.

关键词： disaster meteorological warning

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Improved forecasting via physics-guided machine learning as exemplified using“21·7”extreme rainfall event in Henan

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1652-1674页

作者： Qi ZHONG Zhicha ZHANG Xiuping YAO Shaoyu HOU Shenming FU Yong CAO Linguo JING China meteorological Administration Training Center Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Zhejiang meteorological Observatory Hangzhou 310017China Hebei Provincial Weather Modification Center Shijiazhuang 050020China institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China National meteorological Center Beijing 100081China School of Computer Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China

As a natural disaster,extreme precipitation is among the most destructive and influential,but predicting its occurrence and evolution accurately is very challenging because of its rarity and *** the example of the“21·7”extreme precipitation event(17–21 July 2021)in Henan Province,this study explores the potential of using physics-guided machine learning to improve the accuracy of forecasting the intensity and location of extreme *** physics-guided ways of embedding physical features,fusing physical model forecasts and revised loss function are used,i.e.,(1)analyzing the anomalous circulation and thermodynamical factors,(2)analyzing the multi-model forecast bias and the associated underlying reasons for it,and(3)using professional forecasting knowledge to design the loss function,and the corresponding results are used as input for machine learning to improve the forecasting *** results indicate that by learning the relationship between anomalous physical features and heavy precipitation,the forecasting of precipitation intensity is improved significantly,but the location is rarely adjusted and more false alarms *** reasons for this are as *** anomalous features used here mainly contain information about large-scale systems and factors which are consistent with the model precipitation deviation;moreover,the samples of extreme precipitation are sparse and so the algorithm used here is ***,by combining“good and different”multi models with machine learning,the advantages of each model are extracted and then the location of the precipitation center in the forecast is improved ***,by combining the appropriate anomalous features with multi-model fusion,an integrated improvement of the forecast of the rainfall intensity and location is ***,this study is a novel exploration to improve the refined forecasting of heavy precipitation with extreme intensity and high variability,

关键词： Extreme precipitation event Refined assessment Anomalous physical features Multi-model fusion Machine learning

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Exploring changes of precipitation extremes under climate change through global variable-resolution modeling

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Science Bulletin 2024年第2期69卷 237-247页

作者： Wei Sun Jian Li Rucong Yu Nina Li Yi Zhang State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationChengdu 610072China Department of Atmospheric Science Yunnan UniversityKunming 650091China National meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China 2035 Future Laboratory PIESAT Information Technology Co.Ltd.Beijing 100105China

Understanding the responses of precipitation extremes to global climate change remains limited owing to their poor representations in models and complicated interactions with multi-scale *** we take the record-breaking precipitation over China in 2021 as an example,and study its changes under three different climate scenarios through a developed pseudo-global-warming(PGW)experimental framework with 60-3 km variable-resolution global ensemble *** to the present climate,the precipitation extreme under a warmer(cooler)climate increased(decreased)in intensity,coverage,and total amount at a range of 24.3%-37.8%(18.7%-56.1%).With the help of the proposed PGW experimental framework,we further reveal the impacts of the multi-scale system interactions in climate change on the precipitation *** the warmer climate,large-scale water vapor transport converged from double typhoons and the subtropical high marched into central China,enhancing the convective energy and instability on the leading edge of the transport *** a result,the mesoscale convective system(Mcs)that directly contributed to the precipitation extreme became stronger than that in the present *** the contrary,the cooler climate displayed opposite changing characteristics relative to the warmer climate,ranging from the large-scale systems to local environments and to the *** summary,our study provides a promising approach to scientifically assess the response of precipitation extremes to climate change,making it feasible to perform ensemble simulations while investigating the multi-scale system interactions over the globe.

关键词： Precipitation extreme Climate change Pseudo-global-warming experiment Variable-resolution modeling Multi-scale system interaction

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Unsteady aerodynamic noise prediction of contra-rotating open rotor using meshless method

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Chinese Journal of Aeronautics 2024年第8期37卷 144-165页

作者： Zhiliang HONG Meng SU Haitao ZHANG Zerui XU Lin DU Lingfeng CHEN College of Safety Science and Engineering Civil Aviation University of ChinaTianjin 300300China Civil aviation Administration of China Beijing 100710China Research institute of Aero-Engine Beihang UniversityBeijing 100191China

The Contra-Rotating Open Rotor(CROR)design confronts significant noise challenges despite being one of the possible options for future green *** efficiently estimate the noise emitted from a CROR,a three-dimensional unsteady prediction model based on the meshless method is *** unsteady wake flow and the aerodynamic load fluctuations on the blade are solved through the viscous vortex particle method,the blade element momentum theory and vortex lattice ***,the acoustic field is obtained through the Farassat’s formulation *** of this method is conducted on a CROR,and a mesh-based method,e.g.,Nonlinear Harmonic(NLH)method,is also employed for *** is found that the presented method is three times faster than NLH method while maintaining a comparable precision.A thorough parametric analysis is also carried out to illustrate the effects of rotational speed,rotor-rotor spacing and rear rotor diameter on the noise *** rotor speed is found to be the most influencing factor,and by optimizing the speed difference between the front and rear rotors,a notable noise reduction can be *** current findings not only contribute to a deeper comprehension of the CROR’s aeroacoustic properties but also offer an effective tool for engineering applications.

关键词： Contra-Rotating Open Rotor(CROR) Aerodynamic noise Blade element momentum theory Viscosity vortex particle method Farassat’s formulation 1A

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