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A one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system with combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2016年第3期10卷 432-443页

作者： Zhiyong WU Juan WU Guihua LU College of Hydrology and Water Resources Hohai University Nanjing 210098 China Bureau of Hydrology Information center of Taihu basin Authority Shanghai 200434 China

Coupled hydrological and atmospheric model- ing is an effective tool for providing advanced flood forecasting. However, the uncertainties in precipitation forecasts are still considerable. To address uncertainties, a one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling sys- tem, with a combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting, has been developed. It consists of three high-resolution single models and four sets of ensemble forecasts from the THORPEX Interactive Grande Global Ensemble database. The former provides higher forecasting accuracy, while the latter provides the range of forecasts. The combined precipitation forecasting was then implemented to drive the Chinese National Flood Forecasting System in the 2007 and 2008 Huai River flood hindcast analysis. The encouraging results demonstrated that the system can clearly give a set of forecasting hydrographs for a flood event and has a promising relative stability in discharge peaks and timing for warning purposes. It not only gives a deterministic prediction, but also generates probability forecasts. Even though the signal was not persistent until four days before the peak discharge was observed in the 2007 flood event, the visualization based on threshold exceedance provided clear and concise essential warning information at an early stage. Forecasters could better prepare for the possibility of a flood at an early stage, and then issue an actual warning if the signal strengthened. This process may provide decision support for civil protection authorities. In future studies, different weather forecasts will be assigned various weight coefficients to represent the covariance of predictors and the extremes of distributions.

关键词： one-way coupled hydrological and atmo- spheric modeling flood forecast high-resolution precipita-tion forecasting ensemble prediction

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Hydrocarbon accumulation and distribution in lower Paleozoic carbonates in Tarim basin

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Science China Earth Sciences 2000年第5期43卷 501-506页

作者：吕修祥金之钧皮学军李启明 basin and Reservoir Research center University of Petroleum Beijing 102200 China Exploration and Development Research center Tarim Petroleum Exploration and Development Bureau Kuerle 841000 China

Carbonates are the main exploratory layers in Tarim Paleozoic cratonic basin. With abundant oil and gas sources, the lower Paleozoic carbonate in which traps develop over a large area and at a high amplitude, has the basic condition to form large oil and (or) gas fields. Three types of petroleum accumulation models, which consist of buried-hill petroleum accumulation in the high part of the uplift, inner structure petroleum accumulation in the pitching part of the uplift and fault horst petroleum accumulation on the border of the uplift, are found in the lower Paleozoic carbonates. Petroleum occurrence is mainly controlled by paleo-uplift, fault, unconformity and fracture system. The pitching part of the paleo-uplift and the fault belts on the paleo-uplift are the favorable exploratory areas.

关键词： carbonate petroleum accumulation lower Paleozoic Tarim basin.

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Quasi-3-yr Cycle of Rainy Season Precipitation in Tibet Related to Different Types of ENSO during 1981–2015

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第2期32卷 181-190页

作者： Chunxue WANG Zhenfeng MA Climate center of Sichuan Province Chengdu 610072 Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province for Heavy Rain and Drought-Hood Disasters in Plateau and basin Chengdu 610072

The rainy season precipitation in Tibet（RSPT） is a direct cause for local floods/droughts. It also indirectly affects the thermal conditions of the Tibetan Plateau, which can result in anomalous patterns of atmospheric circulation over East Asia. The interannual variability of the RSPT is often linked with the El Ni？o–Southern Oscillation（ENSO）, but the relevant mechanisms are far from being understood, particularly for different types of ENSO events. We investigated the interannual variation of the RSPT in association with different types of ENSO. A quasi-3-yr period of the RSPT（less–more–more precipitation） was significant at the 95% confidence level. A joint multi-taper method with singular value decomposition analysis of the coupled field between the RSPT and the sea surface temperature（SST）revealed that the developing eastern Pacific type El Ni？o was accompanied by a decrease in the RSPT. The shift from the central Pacific type El Ni？o to the eastern Pacific La Ni？a was accompanied by an increase in the RSPT. Weakening of the central Pacific La Ni？a was accompanied by an increase in the RSPT. Analysis of the mechanism of this coupling, using the same analysis method but other climatic factors, indicated that the gradually strengthening eastern Pacific El Ni？o can inhibit the Walker circulation, weakening the South Asian summer monsoon, and resulting in transport of less water vapor from the Bay of Bengal to Tibet. The change from the central Pacific El Ni？o to the eastern Pacific La Ni？a led to continued strengthening of the Walker circulation with westward movement of the ascending area. This enhanced the South Asian summer monsoon over the Arabian Sea and transported more water vapor to Tibet. The decreasing central Pacific La Ni？a accompanied by persistent cooling of SSTs in the equatorial Pacific led to a strong eastern North Pacific summer monsoon, causing an anomaly in the easterly transport of water vapor from the Sea of Japan to Tibet and increased RSPT

关键词： Tibet multi-taper method with singular value decomposition E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation period

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Understanding and improving Yangtze River basin summer precipitation prediction using an optimal multi-Physics ensemble

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2024年第1期18卷 256-277页

作者： Yang ZHAO Fengxue QIAO Xin-Zhong LIANG Jinhua YU Climate Environment and Sustainability CenterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science(Ministry of Education) East China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China School of Geographic Sciences East China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of MarylandCollege Park MD 20740USA Earth System Science Interdisciplinary center University of MarylandCollege Park MD 20740USA Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster(KLME)(Ministry of Education)/Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

This study employs the regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model(CWRF)to first investigate the primary physical mechanisms causing biases in simulating summer precipitation over the Yangtze River basin(YRB),and then enhance its predictive ability through an optimal multi-physics ensemble *** CWRF 30-km simulations in China are compared among 28 combinations of varying physics parameterizations during 1980−***-term average summer biases in YRB precipitation are remotely correlated with those of large-scale *** teleconnections of biases are highly consistent with the observed correlation patterns between interannual variations of precipitation and circulations,despite minor shifts in their primary action *** YRB precipitation aligns with a southward shifted East Asian westerly jet,an intensified low-level southerly flow south of YRB,and a south-eastward shifted South Asian high,alongside higher moisture availability over ***,decreased YRB precipitation corresponds to an opposite circulation *** CWRF control configuration using the ensemble cumulus parameterization(ECP),compared to other cumulus schemes,best captures the observed YRB precipitation characteristics and associated circulation *** ECP with the Morrison or Morrison-aerosol microphysics and the CCCMA or CAML radiation schemes enhances the overall CWRF *** to the control CWRF,the ensemble average of these skill-enhanced physics configurations more accurately reproduces YRB summer precipitation’s spatial distributions,interannual anomalies,and associated circulation *** Bayesian Joint Probability calibration to these configurations improves the ensemble’s spatial distributions but compromises its interannual anomalies and teleconnection *** findings highlight substantial potential for refining the representation of climate system physics to improve YRB precipitation *** is notabl

关键词： physics parameterization regional climate model downscaling skill enhancement multi-physics ensemble teleconnection bias reduction

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Spatio-temporal evolution analysis of landscape pattern and habitat quality in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River basin from 2000 to 2022 based on InVEST model

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Journal of Arid Land 2024年第9期16卷 1183-1196页

作者： ZHENG Guoqiang Li Cunxiu LI Runjie LUO Jing FAN Chunxia ZHU Hailing College of Geography Qinghai Normal UniversityXining 810008China Qinghai Engineering Consulting center Co. Ltd.Xining 810001China Qinghai University Xining 810016China

Habitat quality is an important indicator for evaluating the quality of *** Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River basin plays an important role in the ecological protection of the upper reaches of the Yellow River *** comprehensively analysis the alterations of habitat quality in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River basin,this study utilized the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model to calculate the habitat quality index and analyze the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of habitat quality in the study area from 2000 to 2022,and calculated seven landscape pattern indices(number of patches,patch density,largest patch index(LPI),landscape shape index(LSI),contagion index(CONTAG),Shannon diversity index,and Shannon evenness index)to research the variation of landscape pattern in the study *** results showed that the number of patches,patch density,LPI,LSI,Shannon diversity index,and Shannon evenness index increased from 2000 to 2022,while the CONTAG decreased,indicating that the landscape pattern in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River basin changed in the direction of distribution fragmentation,shape complexity,and *** average value of the habitat quality index in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River basin from 2000 to 2022 was *** on the value of habitat quality index,we divided the level of habitat quality into five categories:lower(0.00-0.20),low(0.20-0.40),moderate(0.40-0.60),high(0.60-0.80),and higher(0.80-1.00).Most areas were at the higher habitat quality *** lower habitat quality patches were mainly distributed in Longyang Gorge and Yellow River-Huangshui River *** 2000 to 2022,the habitat quality in most areas was stable;the increase areas were mainly distributed in Guinan County,while the decrease areas were mainly distributed in Xining City,Maqen County,Xinghai County,Qumarleb County,and Darlag *** show the extent of

关键词： InVEST model landscape pattern index habitat quality largest patch index landscape shape index Shannon evenness index

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Climate change impacts on eutrophication in the Po River(Italy):Temperature-mediated reduction in nitrogen export but no effect on phosphorus

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第9期143卷 148-163页

作者： Elisa Soana Maria Pia Gervasio Tommaso Granata Daniela Colombo Giuseppe Castaldelli Department of Environmental and Prevention Sciences University of FerraraVia Luigi Borsari 4644121 FerraraItaly CESI-Italian Electrical and Technical Experimental center via Rubattino 5420134MilanoItaly

Rivers worldwide are under stress from eutrophication and nitrate pollution,but the ecological consequences overlap with climate change,and the resulting interactions may be unexpected and still *** Po River basin(northern Italy)is one of the most agriculturally productive and densely populated areas in *** remains unclear whether the climate change impacts on the thermal and hydrological regimes are already affecting nutrient dynamics and transport to coastal *** present work addresses the long-term trends(1992-2020)of nitrogen and phosphorus export by investigating both the annual magnitude and the seasonal patterns and their relationship with water temperature and discharge *** the constant diffuse and point sources in the basin,a marked decrease(-20%)in nitrogen export,mostly as nitrate,was recorded in the last decade compared to the 1990 s,while no significant downward trend was observed for *** water temperature of the Po River has warmed,with the most pronounced signals in summer(+0.13℃/year)and autumn(+0.16℃/year),together with the strongest increase in the number of warm days(+70%-80%).An extended seasonal window of warm temperatures and the persistence of low flow periods are likely to create favorable conditions for permanent nitrate removal via denitrification,resulting in a lower delivery of reactive nitrogen to the *** present results show that climate change-driven warming may enhance nitrogen processing by increasing respiratory river metabolism,thereby reducing export from spring to early autumn,when the risk of eutrophication in coastal zones is higher.

关键词： Nutrient export Eutrophication Climate change Water temperature Denitrification Po River

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Phyllosphere eukaryotic microalgal communities in rainforests:Drivers and diversity

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Plant Diversity 2023年第1期45卷 45-53页

作者： Ben-Wen Liu Shu-Yin Li Huan Zhu Guo-Xiang Liu Key Laboratory of Algal Biology Institute of HydrobiologyChinese Academy of SciencesWuhan 430072China Yangtze River basin Ecological Environment Monitoring and Scientific Research center Yangtze River Basin Ecological Environment Supervision and Administration BureauMinistry of Ecological EnvironmentWuhan 430072China

Phyllosphere algae are common in tropical rainforests,forming visible biofilms or spots on plant leaf ***,knowledge of phyllosphere algal diversity and the environmental factors that drive that diversity is *** aim of this study is to identify the environmental factors that drive phyllosphere algal community composition and diversity in *** this purpose,we used single molecule real-time sequencing of full-length 18S rDNA to characterize the composition of phyllosphere microalgal communities growing on four host tree species(Ficus tikoua,Caryota mitis,Arenga pinnata,and Musa acuminata) common to three types of forest over four months at the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden,Yunnan Province,*** 18S rDNA sequences revealed that the green algae orders Watanabeales and Trentepohliales were dominant in almost all algal communities and that phyllosphere algal species richness and biomass were lower in planted forest than in primeval and reserve *** addition,algal community composition differed significantly between planted forest and primeval *** also found that algal communities were affected by soluble reactive phosphorous,total nitrogen,and ammonium *** findings indicate that algal community structure is significantly related to forest type and host tree ***,this study is the first to identify environmental factors that affect phyllosphere algal communities,significantly contributing to future taxonomic research,especially for the green algae orders Watanabeales and *** research also serves as an important reference for molecular diversity analysis of algae in other specific habitats,such as epiphytic algae and soil algae.

关键词： Full-length 18S rDNA sequences Cryptic diversity Environmental factors High-throughput sequence Phyllosphere algae Tropical rainforest

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Episodic fluid movements in superimposed basin:Combined evidence from outcrop and fluid inclusions of the Majiang ancient oil reservoir,Guizhou Province

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Science China Earth Sciences 2008年第S2期51卷 78-87页

作者： XIANG CaiFu1,2,TANG LiangJie1,2,LI RuFeng1,2 & PANG XiongQi1,2 1 basin and Reservoir Research center,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China 2 State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resource and Prospecting,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China basin and Reservoir Research center China University of Petroleum Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resource and Prospecting China University of Petroleum Beijing China

Combined evidence from the outcrop and the fluid inclusion assemblage (FIA) analysis indicates that there exist two episodes of fluid flow controlled by the tectonic activity. The first episode was recorded mainly in the reservoir rock of the Honghuayuan Formation,representing the fluid flow of hydrocarbon charging. The second episode occurred mainly along the fault systems,representing the fluid move-ment when the ancient oil reservoir was destroyed. The host mineral morphology,homogeneous tem-perature,and salinity of the FIAs record an episodic fluid movement. Characters of high homogenous temperature,low salinity and a quick temperature variation of the first episode fluid flow may indicate an early-stage fluid eruption,and correspondingly,fine-grained calcite was formed. Temperature of the erupted fluid tended to decrease during its mixing with the upper formation fluid and finally had the same temperature as the upper formation. From then on,the temperature was rather steady and fa-vored the growth of the coarse calcite. Due to this character of the temperature variation of the episodic fluid flow,we can use the homogenous temperature of the FIA of the coarse calcite to date the forma-tion and the destruction time of the Majiang ancient oil reservoir. Episodic fluid flow was known for its inhomogeneous trapping,which resulted in the failure of dating according to the burial history. But taking a close look at its temperature variation,we think that the latest stage of fluid flow,characterized by steady state temperature and grow of the coarser crystals,can be used for dating. It will be of great value if this method is proved to be effective. The formation and the destruction time of the Majiang ancient oil reservoir were dated to be in the Indosinian Period and the late Yanshan-early Hymalayan Period respectively. This conclusion is in great discrepancy with the common accepted idea that the Majiang ancient oil reservoir was formed and destroyed during the Cal

关键词： Majiang ancient oil reservoir episodic fluid flow marine carbonate rocks superimposed basin

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Evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on binary index method and reduction index method

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Water Science and Engineering 2019年第4期12卷 263-273页

作者： Hong-yuan Fang Sheng-wei Gan Chen-ying Xue College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering Yangzhou UniversityYangzhou 225009China Taihu Lake basin Hydrological and Water Resources Monitoring center Wuxi 214024China

Based on the regional water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)evaluation principles and evaluation index system in the National Technical Outline of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Monitoring and Early Warning(hereafter referred to as the Technical Outline),this paper elaborates on the collection and sorting of the basic data of water resources conditions,water resources development and utilization status,social and economic development in basins,analysis and examination of integrity,consistency,normativeness,and rationality of the basic data,and the necessity of WRCC *** paper also describes the technique of evaluating the WRCC in prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions in the District of the Taihu Lake basin,which is composed of the Taihu Lake basin and the Southeastern River *** evaluation process combines the binary index evaluation method and reduction index evaluation *** former,recommended by the Technical Outline,uses the total water use and the amount of exploited groundwater as evaluation indices,showing stronger operability,while the latter is developed by simplifying and optimizing the comprehensive index system with greater systematicness and *** mutual validation and adjustment of the results of the above-mentioned two evaluation methods indicate that the WRCC of the District of the Taihu Lake basin is overloaded in general because some prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions in the Taihu Lake basin and the Southeastern River basin are in a severely overloaded *** order to explain this conclusion,this paper analyzes the causes of WRCC overloading from the aspects of basin water environment,water resources development and utilization,water resources regulation and control ability,water resources utilization efficiency,and water resources management.

关键词： Water resources carrying capacity(WRCC) Evaluation Binary index method Reduction index method Prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions

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Fault Systems and Their Mechanisms of the Formation and Distribution of the Tarim basin,NW China

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Journal of Earth Science 2014年第1期25卷 169-182页

作者： Liangjie Tang Taizhu Huang Haijun Qiu Guimei Wan Meng Li Yong Yang Daqing Xie Gang Chen State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting China University of Petroleum basin & Reservoir Research center China University of Petroleum Northwest Oilfield Company SINOPEC Oil and Gas Resources Strategic Research center

This article aims to analyze the main controlling factors of development, distribution and evolution of the fault systems in the Tarim basin. Based on the seismic profile interpretation, compre- hensive analysis of the drilling and geologic data, six fault systems maybe recognized in the Tarim basin, they are the foreland fault system of the South Tianshan Mountain, the northern Tarim uplift fault sys- tem, North Tarim depression fault system, central fault system, Southwest Tarim fault system, and Southeast Tarim fault system. It is indicated that the main differences exist at the development, evolu- tion and distribution of the fault systems in the Tarim basin. The sub-fault systems can be recognized according to the differences of the fault development and distribution in the interior of the fault system. It is characterized that the multi-level differential development and distribution of the fault systems ex- ist in the Tarim basin. The fault belt developed in the Paleozoic strata mainly distribute at the pa- leo-uplift and paleo-slope in the interior of the Tarim basin, and the fault belt occurred in the Meso-Cenozoic beds mainly develop at the peripheral foreland depressions. Zonal and segment differ- ential development and distribution of the fault systems also exist in the Tarim basin. The formation and distribution of the Tarim fault systems is of complex controlling mechanisms. Poly-phase structural movement and tectonic transition controls the multi-phase differential development and distribution of the fault systems in the Tarim basin. Multi-level differential development and distribution is controlled by multi-level detachment belt and regional unconformities. Zonal and segment differential develop- ment and distribution of the Tarim fault systems maybe controlled by pre-existed basement structural texture. The major direction of the fault systems in the Tarim basin is controlled by the later stage basin-mountain coupling.

关键词： fault system differential tectonic movement detachment belt geodynamic mechanism Tarim basin.

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