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Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1539-1558页

作者： Yanxin ZHENG Shuanglin LI Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE Lingling SUO Department of atmospheric science CMA-CUG Joint Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological HazardsChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Institute of atmospheric Physics and Climate Change research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory Yichang 443099China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes centre for Climate research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

关键词： triple-nested downscaling Three Gorges Reservoir area consecutive rainfall events geological hazards projection

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Oxidized organic molecules in the tropical free troposphere over Amazonia

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National science Review 2024年第1期11卷 174-184页

作者： Qiaozhi Zha Diego Aliaga Radovan Krejci Victoria A.Sinclair Cheng Wu Giancarlo Ciarelli Wiebke Scholz Liine Heikkinen Eva Partoll Yvette Gramlich Wei Huang Markus Leiminger Joonas Enroth Otso Per?kyl? Runlong Cai Xuemeng Chen Alkuin Maximilian Koenig Fernando Velarde Isabel Moreno Tuukka Pet?j? Paulo Artaxo Paolo Laj Armin Hansel Samara Carbone Markku Kulmala Marcos Andrade Douglas Worsnop Claudia Mohr Federico Bianchi Institute for atmospheric and Earth System research/Physics University of Helsinki Joint International research Laboratory of atmospheric and Earth System sciences Nanjing University Department of Environmental science & Bolin centre for Climate research Stockholm University Department of Chemistry and Molecular Biology University of Gothenburg Institute for Ion and Applied Physics University of Innsbruck Ionicon Analytik GmbH Laboratory for atmospheric Physics Institute for Physics Research Universidad Mayor de San Andrés Institute of Physics University of Sao Paulo Institute for Geosciences and Environmental research (IGE) University of Grenoble Alpes Agrarian sciences Institute Federal University of Uberl?ndia Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Soft Matter science and Engineering Beijing University of Chemical Technology Department of atmospheric and Oceanic sciences University of Maryland Aerodyne research Inc. Department of Environmental System science ETH Zürich Switzerland and Laboratory of atmospheric Chemistry Paul Scherrer Institute

New particle formation(NPF) in the tropical free troposphere(FT) is a globally important source of cloud condensation nuclei, affecting cloud properties and climate. Oxidized organic molecules(OOMs)produced from biogenic volatile organic compounds are believed to contribute to aerosol formation in the tropical FT, but without direct chemical observations. We performed in situ molecular-level OOMs measurements at the Bolivian station Chacaltaya at 5240 m above sea level, on the western edge of Amazonia. For the first time, we demonstrate the presence of OOMs, mainly with 4–5 carbon atoms, in both gas-phase and particle-phase(in terms of mass contribution) measurements in tropical FT air from Amazonia. These observations, combined with air mass history analyses, indicate that the observed OOMs are linked to isoprene emitted from the rainforests hundreds of kilometers away. Based on particle-phase measurements, we find that these compounds can contribute to NPF, at least the growth of newly formed nanoparticles, in the tropical FT on a continental scale. Thus, our study is a fundamental and significant step in understanding the aerosol formation process in the tropical FT.

关键词： oxidized organic molecules tropical aerosol formation Amazon free troposphere

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Distribution and Formation Causes of PM_(2.5) and O_(3) Double High Pollution Events in China during 2013–20

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1235-1250,I0004-I0021页

作者： Zhixuan TONG Yingying YAN Shaofei KONG Jintai LIN Nan CHEN Bo ZHU Jing MA Tianliang ZHAO Shihua QI Department of atmospheric science School of Environmental SciencesChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China research centre for Complex Air Pollution of Hubei Province Wuhan 430074China Laboratory for Climate and Ocean–Atmosphere Studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Eco-Environmental Monitoring centre of Hubei Province Wuhan 430074China Key Laboratory of atmospheric Chemistry China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China School of atmospheric Physics Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China

Fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))and ozone(O_(3))double high pollution(DHP)events have occurred frequently over China in recent years,but their causes are not completely *** this study,the spatiotemporal distribution of DHP events in China during 2013–20 is *** synoptic types affecting DHP events are identified with the Lamb–Jenkinson circulation classification *** meteorological and chemical causes of DHP events controlled by the main synoptic types are further *** show that DHP events(1655 in total for China during 2013–20)mainly occur over the North China Plain,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,Sichuan Basin,and Central *** occurrence frequency increases by 5.1%during 2013–15,and then decreases by 56.1%during 2015–*** main circulation types of DHP events are“cyclone”and“anticyclone”,accounting for over 40%of all DHP events over five main polluted regions in China,followed by southerly or easterly flat airflow types,like“southeast”,“southwest”,and“east”.Compared with non-DHP events,DHP events are characterized by static or weak wind,high temperature(20.9℃ versus 23.1℃)and low humidity(70.0%versus 64.9%).The diurnal cycles of meteorological conditions cause PM_(2.5)(0300–1200 LST,Local Standard Time=UTC+8 hours)and O_(3)(1500–2100 LST)to exceed the national standards at different periods of the DHP *** pollutant conversion indices further indicate the rapid secondary conversions during DHP events,and thus the concentrations of NO_(2),SO_(2) and volatile organic compounds decrease by 13.1%,4.7%and 4.4%,*** results of this study can be informative for future decisions on the management of DHP events.

关键词： double high pollution events PM_(2.5) ozone spatiotemporal distribution meteorological causes chemical composition characteristics

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The Observed Near-Surface Energy Exchange Processes over Arctic Glacier in Summer

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Journal of Meteorological research 2024年第3期38卷 600-607页

作者： Libo ZHOU Jinhuan ZHU Linlin KONG Peng LI Shupo MA Fei LI Han ZOU Meigen ZHANG Irina REPINA Department of Lower atmospheric Observation and research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Department of Weather Forecast Aviation Meteorological Centre of Air Traffic Management BureauCivil Aviation Administration of ChinaBeijing100015China A.M.Obukhov Institute of atmospheric Physics Russian Academy of Sciences(RAS)Moscow119017Russian Federation

Under Arctic warming,near-surface energy transfers have significantly changed,but few studies have focused on energy exchange over Arctic glacier due to limitations in available *** this study,the atmospheric energy exchange processes over the Arctic glacier surface were analyzed by using observational data obtained in summer 2019 in comparison with those over the Arctic tundra *** energy budget over the glacier greatly differed from that over the tundra,characterized by less net shortwave radiation and downward sensible heat flux,due to the high albedo and icy *** of the incoming solar radiation was injected into the glacier in summer,leading to snow ice *** the observation period,strong daily variations in near-surface heat transfer occurred over the Arctic glacier,with the maximum downward and upward heat fluxes occurring on 2 and 6 July 2019,*** analyses suggested that the maximum downward heat flux is mainly caused by the strong local thermal contrast above the glacier surface,while the maximum upward heat transfer cannot be explained by the classical turbulent heat transfer theory,possibly caused by countergradient heat *** results indicated that the near-surface energy exchange processes over Arctic glacier may be strongly related to local forcings,but a more in-depth investigation will be needed in the future when more observational data become available.

关键词： Arctic glacier tundra energy exchange processes

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Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin WANG Kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG Fangxing FAN Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao ZHU Tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU International Center for Climate and Environment science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International research centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Monsoon System research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the Institute of atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

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Theoretical insights of the pharmaceutical compound fluoxetine in water:Role in direct photolysis and indirect photolysis by free radicals

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Journal of Environmental sciences 2024年第8期142卷 269-278页

作者： Ying Lu Se Wang Yifan Shen School of Environmental science and Engineering Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment TechnologyJiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution ControlNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

The frequent detection of pharmaceutical compounds in the environment has led to a growing awareness,which may pose a major threat to the aquatic *** this study,photodegradation(direct and indirect photolysis)of two different dissociation states of fluoxetine(FLU)was investigated in water,mainly including the determination of photolytic transition states and products,and the mechanisms of indirect photodegradation with·OH,CO_(3)^(*-)and NO_(3)^(*).The main direct photolysis pathways are defluorination and C–C bond *** addition,the indirect photodegradation of FLU in water is mainly through the reactions with·OH and NO_(3)^(*),and the photodegradation reaction with CO_(3)^(*-)is relatively difficult to occur in the water *** results provide a theoretical basis for understanding the phototransformation process of FLU in the water environment and assessing its potential risk.

关键词： Fluoxetine Photochemical mechanism Direct photolysis Free radical reaction DFT

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Uncovering the dominant contribution of intermediate volatility compounds in secondary organic aerosol formation from biomass-burning emissions

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National science Review 2024年第3期11卷 150-158页

作者： Kun Li Jun Zhang David M.Bell Tiantian Wang Houssni Lamkaddam Tianqu Cui Lu Qi Mihnea Surdu Dongyu Wang Lin Du Imad El Haddad Jay G.Slowik Andre S.H.Prevot Environment research Institute Shandong University Laboratory of atmospheric Chemistry Paul Scherrer Institute

Organic vapors from biomass burning are a major source of secondary organic aerosols(SOAs). Previous smog chamber studies found that the SOA contributors in biomass-burning emissions are mainly volatile organic compounds(VOCs). While intermediate volatility organic compounds(IVOCs) are efficient SOA precursors and contribute a considerable fraction of biomass-burning emissions, their contribution to SOA formation has not been directly observed. Here, by deploying a newly-developed oxidation flow reactor to study SOA formation from wood burning, we find that IVOCs can contribute ～70% of the formed SOA, i.e.>2 times more than VOCs. This previously missing SOA fraction is interpreted to be due to the high wall losses of semi-volatile oxidation products of IVOCs in smog chambers. The finding in this study reveals that SOA production from biomass burning is much higher than previously thought, and highlights the urgent need for more research on the IVOCs from biomass burning and potentially other emission sources.

关键词： atmospheric chemistry biomass burning secondary organic aerosol intermediate volatility organic compounds

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The source of Double ITCZ induced by the SST bias over the tropical western Pacific as reflected in CAS-ESM2 Model

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science China Earth sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1604-1615页

作者： Jinning TONG Fei ZHENG Jiangbo JIN Ruowen YANG Jiang ZHU Qingcun ZENG Department of atmospheric sciences Yunnan UniversityKunming 650091China International Center for Climate and Environment science Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

“Double ITCZ”is a common precipitation bias over the tropical Pacific in current climate models and Earth system models,but the reasons for its formation are still worth exploring and *** this study,we adopted the second version of Chinese Academy of sciences Earth System Model(CAS-ESM2),by comparing a set of sea surface temperature(SST)bias correction experiments over the tropical Pacific,to explore the possible mechanism of SST bias on inducing the“Double ITCZ”from the perspective of the climatic annual mean bias in the coupled *** revealed that the simulated climatic annual mean SST bias over the tropical Pacific can affect the bias of latent heat flux through the saturation specific humidity,and the bias of latent heat flux can further affect that of vertical velocity of humid air by the condensation release mechanism,and finally modulate the simulated bias in ***,through the inter-comparison between different experiments,it is found that the source of Double ITCZ might mainly come from the annual mean SST bias over the tropical western Pacific through the proposed air-sea coupled process of“SST-saturated specific humidity-latent heat flux-vertical velocity-precipitation”,indicating a possible way on reducing the couple biases in models over the tropical Pacific to improve the accuracy of CAS-ESM2 for climate simulation.

关键词： SST bias Double ITCZ Nudging SST CAS-ESM2

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Regional climate response to global warming in the source region of the Yellow River and its impact on runoff

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science China Earth sciences 2024年第3期67卷 843-855页

作者： Yiran ZHANG Degang ZHOU Xiaofeng GUO Center for Monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The source region of the Yellow River has experienced obvious climate and discharge changes in recent decades due to global warming, which largely affects the water resources and ecological and environmental security in the Yellow River basin. This study analyzed the changes in runoff and several climate factors in the source region of the Yellow River based on the observed discharges at the Tangnag hydrological station, routine meteorological data from China Meteorological Administration(CMA) stations within and near this source region, and several evaporation datasets. The results indicate that the runoff in the source region was relatively abundant from 1960 to 1989 and then declined sharply afterward. It recovered slightly after 2005 but was still below normal—10% less than that during 1960–1989. Similarly, the precipitation amounts in the source region were relatively low in the 1990s, but they increased significantly after 2003, with an average increase of 31.4 mm or 6% more when compared to that in 1960–1989. In addition, the temperatures in the source region continued to rise from 1960 to 2017, and the evaporation levels also showed an upward trend after 1990. The influences of the spatial and temporal variations in climatic factors on runoff in the source region were then further analyzed. The results indicate that the decreases in precipitation and the number of days of heavy rainfall in the source region from 1990 to 2002 were important reasons for the lower runoff during this period. After 2003, the precipitation in the southeastern part of the source region, which is a key area for runoff generation,increased only to a limited extent, but the evaporation in the entire source region generally increased with increasing temperature,which might have led to the low capacity for actual runoff production in each subbasin and persistent low runoff in the source region. Therefore, such a climate response to global warming in the source region might be unfavorabl

关键词： The source region of the Yellow River Climate response Runoff variation Evaporation Precipitation

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Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE Ke FAN Huijun WANG Fei LI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of atmospheric science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes centre for Climate research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence

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