检索结果-南通市图书馆

Application of the improved dung beetle optimizer,muti-head attention and hybrid deep learning algorithms to groundwater depth prediction in the Ningxia area,China

引用

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 18-23页

作者： Jiarui Cai Bo Sun Huijun Wang Yi Zheng Siyu Zhou Huixin Li Yanyan Huang Peishu Zong Collaborative Innovation center on forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) ZhuhaiChina China meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Transportation MeteorologyNanjingChina Jiangsu meteorological Observatory NanjingChina

Due to the lack of accurate data and complex parameterization,the prediction of groundwater depth is a chal-lenge for numerical *** learning can effectively solve this issue and has been proven useful in the prediction of groundwater depth in many *** this study,two new models are applied to the prediction of groundwater depth in the Ningxia area,*** two models combine the improved dung beetle optimizer(DBO)algorithm with two deep learning models:The Multi-head Attention-Convolution Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory networks(MH-CNN-LSTM)and the Multi-head Attention-Convolution Neural Network-Gated Recurrent Unit(MH-CNN-GRU).The models with DBO show better prediction performance,with larger R(correlation coefficient),RPD(residual prediction deviation),and lower RMSE(root-mean-square error).Com-pared with the models with the original DBO,the R and RPD of models with the improved DBO increase by over 1.5%,and the RMSE decreases by over 1.8%,indicating better prediction *** addition,compared with the multiple linear regression model,a traditional statistical model,deep learning models have better prediction performance.

关键词： Groundwater depth Multi-head attention Improved dung beetle optimizer CNN-LSTM CNN-GRU Ningxia

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Vertical structure of predictability and information transport over the Northern Hemisphere

引用

Chinese Physics B 2014年第2期23卷 661-668页

作者：冯爱霞王启光龚志强封国林 data Service Office National Meteorological Information CenterChina Meteorological Administration China meteorological Administration Training center China Meteorological Administration Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological Administration

Based on nonlinear prediction and information theory, vertical heterogeneity of predictability and information loss rate in geopotential height field are obtained over the Northern Hemisphere. On a seasonal-to-interannual time scale, the predictability is low in the lower troposphere and high in the mid-upper troposphere. However, within mid-upper troposphere over the subtropics ocean area, there is a relatively poor predictability. These conclusions also fit the seasonal time scale. Moving to the interannual time scale, the predictability becomes high in the lower troposphere and low in the mid-upper troposphere, contrary to the former case. On the whole the interannual trend is more predictable than the seasonal trend. The average information loss rate is low over the mid-east Pacific, west of North America, Atlantic and Eurasia, and the atmosphere over other places has a relatively high information loss rate on all-time scales. Two channels are found steadily over the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean in subtropics. There are also unstable channels. The four- season influence on predictability and information communication are studied. The predictability is low, no matter which season data are removed and each season plays an important role in the existence of the channels, except for the winter. The predictability and teleconnections are paramount issues in atmospheric science, and the teleconnections may be established by communication channels. So, this work is interesting since it reveals the vertical structure of predictability distribution, channel locations, and the contributions of different time scales to them and their variations under different seasons.

关键词： geopotential height field information theory information loss rate predictability

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Daily extreme precipitation and trends over China

引用

Science China Earth Sciences 2017年第12期60卷 2190-2203页

作者： SUN Jun ZHANG FuQing National meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences and Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability TechniquesPennsylvania State UniversityUniversity Park

Based on daily precipitation data of more than 2000 Chinese stations and more than 50 yr, we constructed time series of extreme precipitation based on six different indices for each station: annual and summer maximum(top-1) precipitation,accumulated amount of 10 precipitation maxima(annual, summer; top-10), and total annual and summer ***, we constructed the time series of the total number of stations based on the total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 annual extreme precipitation for the whole data period, the whole country, and six subregions, respectively. Analysis of these time series indicate three regions with distinct trends of extreme precipitation:(1) a positive trend region in Southeast China,(2) a positive trend region in Northwest China, and(3) a negative trend region in North China. Increasing(decreasing)ratios of 10–30% or even >30% were observed in these three regions. The national total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 precipitation extremes increased respectively by 2.4 and 15 stations per decade on average but with great inter-annual *** have been three periods with highly frequent precipitation extremes since 1960:(1) early 1960 s,(2) middle and late 1990 s,and(3) early 21 st century. There are significant regional differences in trends of regional total number of stations with top-1 and top-10 precipitation. The most significant increase was observed over Northwest China. During the same period, there are significant changes in the atmospheric variables that favor the decrease of extreme precipitation over North China: an increase in the geopotential height over North China and its upstream regions, a decrease in the low-level meridional wind from South China coast to North China, and the corresponding low moisture content in North China. The extreme precipitation values with a50-year empirical return period are 400–600 mm at the South China coastal regions and gradually decrease to less than 50

关键词： Extreme precipitation(EP) Extreme precipitation event(EPE) Time series Total annual number of stations Extreme event return level

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

An Analysis of the Discontinuity in Chinese Radiosonde Temperature data Using Satellite Observation as a Reference

引用

Journal of meteorological research 2019年第2期33卷 289-306页

作者： Yanjun GUO Chengzhi ZOU Panmao ZHAI Guofu WANG National Climate center China meteorological Administration center for Satellite Applications and research National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service Chinese Academy of Meteorolgical Sciences China meteorological Administration

Reconciling upper-air temperature trends derived from radiosonde and satellite observations is a necessary step to confidently determine the global warming rate. This study examines the raw and homogenized radiosonde observations over China and compares them with layer-mean atmospheric temperatures derived from satellite microwave observations for the lower-troposphere(TLT), mid-troposphere(TMT), upper-troposphere(TUT), and lower-stratosphere(TLS) by three research groups. Comparisons are for averages over China, excluding the Tibetan Plateau, and at individual stations where metadata contain information on radiosonde instrument changes. It is found that major differences between the satellite and radiosonde observations are related to artificial systematic changes. The radiosonde system updates in the early 2000 s over China caused significant discontinuities and led the radiosonde temperature trends to exhibit less warming in the middle and upper troposphere and more cooling in the lower stratosphere than satellite temperatures. Homogenized radiosonde data have been further adjusted by using the shift-point adjustment approaches to match with satellite products for China averages. The obtained trends during 1979–2015 from the re-adjusted radiosonde observation are respectively 0.203 ± 0.066, 0.128 ± 0.044, 0.034 ± 0.039, and –0.329 ± 0.135 K decade^(–1) for TLT, TMT, TUT, and TLS equivalents. Compared to satellite trends, the re-adjusted radiosonde trends are within 0.01 K decade^(–1) for TMT and TUT, 0.054 K decade^(–1) warmer for TLT, and 0.051 K decade^(–1) cooler for TLS. The results suggest that the use of satellite data as a reference is helpful in identifying and removing inhomogeneities of radiosonde temperatures over China and reconciling their trends to satellite microwave observations. Future efforts are to homogenize radiosonde temperatures at individual stations over China by using similar approaches.

关键词： radiosonde temperature homogenization satellite microwave sounding unit China upper air temperature trends

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Bias Adjustment and Analysis of Chinese Daily Historical Radiosonde Temperature data

引用

Journal of meteorological research 2021年第1期35卷 17-31页

作者： Zhe CHEN Zijiang ZHOU Zhiquan LIU Qinglei LI Xiaoling ZHANG National meteorological Information center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National center for Atmospheric research BoulderColorado 80301USA Beijing meteorological Information center Beijing Meteorological ServiceBeijing 100089China

The discontinuities in historical Chinese radiosonde datasets are attributed to artificial errors. In order to reflect more realistically basic conditions of the atmosphere over China and provide more reasonable radiosonde data as input to climate change analysis and to atmospheric reanalysis data assimilation systems, this paper proposes a scheme to identify breakpoints and adjust biases in daily radiosonde observations. The ongoing ECMWF Re Analysis-Interim(ERA-Interim) 12-h forecasts are used as reference series in the scheme, complemented by the ECMWF Twentieth Century Reanalysis(ERA-20 C). A series of breakpoint identification schemes are developed and combined with metadata to detect breakpoints. The Quantile-Matching(QM) method is applied to test and adjust daily radiosonde data on 12 mandatory pressure levels collected at 80 sounding stations during 1979–2013. The adjusted temperatures on mandatory levels are interpolated to significant levels for temperature adjustment on these levels. The adjustment scheme not only solves the data discontinuity problem caused by changes in observational instruments and bias correction methods, but also solves the discontinuity problem in the 1200 minus 0000 UTC temperature time series on mandatory levels at individual sounding stations. Before the adjustment, obvious discontinuities can be found in the deviation field between the raw radiosonde data and ERA-Interim reanalysis with relatively large deviations before 2001. The deviation discontinuity is mainly attributed to the nationwide upgrade of the radiosonde system in China around 2001. After the adjustment, the time series of deviations becomes more continuous. In addition, compared with the adjusted temperature data on mandatory levels over 80 radiosonde stations in China contained in the Radiosonde Observation Correction Using Reanalyses(RAOBCORE) 1.5, the dataset adjusted by the method proposed in the present study exhibits higher quality than RAOBCORE 1.5, while d

关键词： daily radiosonde temperature data mandatory levels significant levels bias adjustment

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Integration, Quality Assurance, and Usage of Global Aircraft Observations in CRA

引用

Journal of meteorological research 2021年第1期35卷 1-16页

作者： Jie LIAO Huiying WANG Zijiang ZHOU Zhiquan LIU Lipeng JIANG Fang YUAN National meteorological Information center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National center for Atmospheric research CO 80301USA

This paper presents a detailed description of integration, quality assurance procedure, and usage of global aircraft observations for China's first generation global atmospheric reanalysis(CRA) product(1979–2018). An integration method named "classified integration" is developed. Aircraft observations from nine different sources are integrated into the Integrated Global meteorological Observation Archive from Aircraft(IGMOAA), a new dataset from the National meteorological Information center(NMIC) of the China meteorological Administration(CMA). IGMOAA consists of global aircraft temperature, wind, and humidity data from the surface to 100 h Pa, extending from 1973 to the present. Compared with observations assimilated in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR) of NCEP,the observation number of IGMOAA increased by 12.9% between 2010 and 2014, mainly as a result of adding more Chinese Aircraft meteorological data Relay(AMDAR) data. Complex quality control procedures for aircraft observations of NCEP are applied to detect data errors. Observations are compared with ERA-Interim reanalysis from 1979 to 2018 to investigate data quality of different types and aircraft, and subsequently to develop the blacklists for CRA. IGMOAA data have been assimilated in CRA in 2018 and are real-time updated at the CMA data-as-a-Service(CMADaa S) platform. For CRA, the fits to observations improve over time. From 1994 to 2018, root-meansquare error(RMSE) of observations relative to CRA background decreases from 1.8 to 1.0℃ for temperature above 300 h Pa, and from 4.5 to 3 m s^(-1) for zonal wind. The RMSE for humidity appears to exhibit an apparent seasonal variation with larger errors in summer and smaller ones in winter.

关键词： aircraft observation integration quality assurance blacklist China's global atmospheric reanalysis(CRA)product

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

A Precipitation Detection Method for MWTS-Ⅱ Radiance Assimilation in Typhoon Simulation

引用

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第2期26卷 150-160页

作者： YUAN Bing MA Gang ZHANG Peng XI Shuang WANG Ting-fang Satellite meteorological research Division National Satellite Meteorological CenterBeijing 100083 China

FY-3C Microwave Temperature SounderⅡ(MWTS-Ⅱ)lacks observations at 23.8 GHz,31 GHz and 89 GHz,making it difficult to remove the data contaminated by precipitation in *** this paper,a fast forward operator based on the Community Radiative Transfer Model(CRTM)was used to analyze the relationship between the observation minus background simulation(O-B)and the cloud fractions in different MWTS-Ⅱ*** addition,based on the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation(GSI)system,the radiation brightness temperature of the MWTS-Ⅱwas assimilated in the regional Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)*** the process of assimilation,Visible and Infrared Radiometer(VIRR)cloud detection products were matched to MWTS-Ⅱpixels for precipitation *** typhoon No.18 in 2014,impact tests of MWTS-Ⅱdata assimilation was carried *** results show that,though the bias observation minus analysis(O-A)of assimilated data can be reduced by quality control only with|O-B|<3 K;however,the O-A becomes much smaller while the precipitation detection is performed with Fvirr<0.9(VIRR cloud fraction threshold of 0.9).Besides,the change of the environmental field around the typhoon is more conducive to make the simulated track closer to the *** 72-hour typhoon track simulation error also shows that,after the precipitation detection,the error of simulated typhoon track is significantly reduced,which reflects the validity of a precipitation detection method based on a double criterion of|O-B|<3 K and Fvirr<0.9.

关键词： numerical weather prediction MWTS-II data assimilation precipitation cloud detection track simulation of typhoon

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

A Comparison of Atmospheric Temperature over China between Radiosonde Observations and Multiple Reanalysis datasets

引用

Journal of meteorological research 2016年第2期30卷 242-257页

作者：郭艳君张思齐颜京辉陈哲阮新 National Climate center China Meteorological Administration National meteorological Information center China Meteorological Administration

The quality controlled（RAW） and homogenized（ADJ） radiosonde temperatures within 850-30 hPa collected at 118 stations in China are compared,on a monthly mean basis,with the temperatures extracted from 8 reanalysis datasets（REA） including NCEP-1,NCEP-2,ERA-40（ECMWF 45-yr Reanalysis）,ERAInterim,JRA-55（Japanese 55-yr Reanalysis）,20CR（20th Century Reanalysis）,MERRA（Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis）,and CFSR（Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）.Average differences,correlations,standard deviations,and linear trends among RAW,ADJ,and REA for the period 1981-2010 are *** results reveal significant inhomogeneity in the time series of RAW radiosonde temperature in China;an overall negative adjustment was thus employed to obtain the ADJ temperatures,and the effect of the negative adjustment is the most significant within 200-100 *** a homogenization process has removed the system errors in RAW,possibly caused by radiosonde instrument changes and observation system ***,the correlation is higher between ADJ and REA than that between RAW and *** mean difference between ADJ and REA is about 1℃ during 1981-2010,while REA are mostly cooler in the troposphere and warmer in the stratosphere than ADJ;nonetheless,they have a significant high and positive correlation and their annual variability is notably ***,the linear trends in REA and ADJ both demonstrate warming in the lower-mid troposphere and cooling in the mid stratosphere,with large uncertainties found in the upper troposphere and lower *** general,ERA-Interim,JRA-55,and MERRA are more consistent with ADJ than other reanalysis datasets.

关键词： radiosonde air temperature reanalysis data China raw versus homogenized data

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

A 10-Yr Global Land Surface Reanalysis Interim dataset(CRA-Interim/Land):Implementation and Preliminary Evaluation

引用

Journal of meteorological research 2020年第1期34卷 101-116页

作者： Xiao LIANG Lipeng JIANG Yang PAN Chunxiang SHI Zhiquan LIU Zijiang ZHOU National meteorological Information center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National center for Atmospheric research BoulderCO 80301USA

A land surface reanalysis dataset covering the most recent decades is able to provide temporally consistent initial conditions for weather and climate models,and thus is crucial to verifying/improving numerical weather/climate forecasts/*** this paper,we report the development of a 10-yr China meteorological Administration(CMA)global Land surface ReAnalysis Interim dataset(CRA-Interim/Land;2007–2016,6-h intervals,approximately 34-km horizontal resolution).The dataset was produced and evaluated by using the Global Land data Assimilation System(GLDAS)and NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR)global land surface reanalysis datasets,as well as in situ observations in *** results show that the global spatial patterns and monthly variations of the CRA-Interim/Land,GLDAS,and CFSR climatology are highly consistent,while the soil moisture and temperature values of the CRA-Interim/Land dataset are in between those of the GLDAS and CFSR *** with ground observations in China,CRA-Interim/Land soil moisture is comparable to or better than that of GLDAS and CFSR datasets for the 0–10-cm soil layer and has higher correlations and slightly lower root mean square errors(RMSE)for the 10–40-cm soil ***,CRA-Interim/Land shows negative biases in 10–40-cm soil moisture in Northeast China and north of central *** ground temperature and the soil temperature in different layers,CRA-Interim/Land behaves better than the CFSR,especially in East and central ***-Interim/Land has added value over the land components of CRA-Interim due to the introduction of global precipitation observations and improved soil/vegetation ***,this dataset is potentially a critical supplement to the *** evaluation of the CRA-Interim/Land,assimilation of near-surface atmospheric forcing variables,and extension of the current dataset to 40 yr(1979–2018)are in progress.

关键词： global land surface reanalysis dataset CRA-Interim/Land ground temperature soil temperature soil moisture Global Land data Assimilation System(GLDAS)

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Development and Application of an Atmospheric-HydrologicHydraulic Flood Forecasting Model Driven by TIGGE Ensemble Forecasts

引用

Acta meteorologica Sinica 2012年第1期26卷 93-102页

作者：包红军赵琳娜 Public meteorological Service center China Meteorological Administration National meteorological center China Meteorological Administration

A coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic ensemble flood forecasting model, driven by The Observing System research and Predictability Experiment （THORPEX） Interactive Grand Global Ensemble （TIGGE） data, has been developed for flood forecasting over the Huaihe River. The incorporation of numerical weather prediction （NWP） information into flood forecasting systems may increase forecast lead time from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP model forecast from a single forecast center, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and leads to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble NWP systems through TIGGE offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Xinanjiang model used for hydrological rainfall-runoff modeling and the one-dimensional unsteady flow model applied to channel flood routing are coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE data from the Canadian meteorological Centre （CMC）, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF）, the UK Met Office （UKMO）, and the US National centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）. The developed ensemble flood forecasting model is applied to flood forecasting of the 2007 flood season as a test case. The test case is chosen over the upper reaches of the Huaihe River above Lutaizi station with flood diversion and retarding areas. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The Muskingum method is used for flood routing in the flood diversion area. A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast is provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE ensemble forecasts. The results demonstrate satisfactory flood forecasting with clear signals of probability of floods up to a f

关键词： ensemble flood forecast TIGGE ensemble predictions Xinanjiang model one-dimensionalunsteady flow model flood diversion and retarding Huaihe River

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

欢迎您,

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

欢迎您,

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：