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The Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in Different Quadrants of Northeast China Cold Vortices

Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 321-338页

作者： Lei YANG Yongguang ZHENG Liaoning meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning center Shenyang 110166 National meteorological Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China meteorological Administration Tornado Key Laboratory Foshan 528315

The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)is one of the main synoptic-scale systems causing short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR)in Northeast *** conditions(e.g.,water vapor,instability,and vertical wind shear)are known to be distinctly different over the four quadrants of NCCVs,rendering prediction of the SDHR related to NCCVs(NCCV_SDHR)more *** on 5-yr hourly rainfall observations from 3196 automatic weather stations and ERA5 reanalysis data,10,232 NCCV_SDHR events were identified and divided into four quadrant groups according to their relative position to the center of the NCCV(CVC).The results show that the southeast quadrant features the highest frequency of SDHR,with stronger intensity,longer duration,and wider coverage;and the SDHR in different quadrants presents different formation mechanisms and varied temporal evolution.A new coordinate system is established relative to the CVC that uses the CVC as the origin and the radius of the NCCV(r CV)as the unit *** this new coordinate system,all of the NCCV_SDHR events in the 5-yr study period are *** is found that the occurrence frequency of NCCV_SDHR initially increases and then decreases with increasing distance from the *** highest frequency occurs mainly between 0.8 and 2.5 times r CV from the CVC in the southeast *** can be attributed to the favorable conditions,such as convergence of the low-level shear line and abundant water vapor,which are concentrated in this ***,high-frequency NCCV_SDHR larger than 50 mm(NCCV_SDHR50)is observed to be closer to the *** NCCV_SDHR50occurs,the NCCV is in closer proximity to the subtropical high,resulting in stronger low-level convergence and more abundant water ***,there are lower lifting condensation levels and stronger 0-6-and 0-1-km vertical wind shears in these *** findings provide a valuable reference for more accurate prediction of NCCV_SDHR.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex short-duration heavy rainfall statistical characteristics environmental conditions

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Changes in extreme high temperature warning indicators over China under different global warming levels

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第6期67卷 1895-1909页

作者： Yuxia ZHANG Ying SUN Ting HU Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China National Climate center Laboratory for Climate StudiesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

High temperature warning indicators play a pivotal role in meteorological departments,serving as crucial criteria for issuing warnings that guide both social production and daily *** their importance,limited studies have explored the relationship between different global warming levels and changes in high temperature warning *** this study,we analyze data from 2,419 meteorological stations over China and utilize the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models to examine historical changes in high temperature warning indicators used by the China meteorological *** evaluate model performance and estimate future changes in these indicators using an annual cycle bias correction *** results indicate that since 1961,the number of high temperature days(TX35d and TX40d)and length of season(TX40d and TX40l)with daily maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 35℃ and 40℃ have increased over *** intensity of high temperatures(TXx)has strengthened and the geographical extent affected by high temperatures has *** 2022,the occurrence of 40℃ high temperatures surges,with Eastern China experiencing a two-day increase in TX40d and an extended seasonal length in TX40l by over five *** CMIP6 models have underestimated the high temperature indictors associated with 35℃ during historical periods,notable difference is not observed between the models and observations for TX40d and TX40l,given their rare ***,future projections,after bias correction,indicate that the increasing trends for 35℃ and 40℃ high temperature days and length of season become more pronounced than the raw projection,suggesting a more severe increase than that anticipated *** global warming intensifies,the high temperature days and length of season are projected to increase non-linearly,while the intensity of high temperatures is expected to increase *** every 1℃ increase in global temperature,the intensity is

关键词： Extreme high temperatures meteorological warning CMIP6 Global warming levels Future projection

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A Brief of Cold Spell Warning Actions of the National meteorological center of China meteorological Administration

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China CDC weekly 2024年第5期6卷 88-91页

作者： Taiyuan Zhang Mengxue Zhang Qiutong Li Yu Lan Huafeng meteorological Media Group of China meteorological Administration(CMA) BeijingChina National Institute of Environmental Health Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina The National meteorological center of China meteorological Administration(CMA) BeijingChina

The“Outline for High-Quality Development of Meteorology(2022-2035)”was published by the State Council of the People’s Republic of China in April 2022(1).This publication highlights the essential role of meteorological disaster warnings,particularly cold spell warnings,in preventing and mitigating *** outline also sets forth stricter expectations for enhancing the overall capacity of society in terms of meteorological disaster preparedness and response.

关键词： disaster meteorological warning

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A 10-yr Rainfall and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatology over Coastal and Inland Regions of Guangdong,China during the Pre-Summer Rainy Season

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 469-488页

作者： Yuqing RUAN Rudi XIA Xinghua BAO Dong ZHENG Yan SHEN Jinfang YIN State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China National meteorological Information Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

A comparative analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainfall and lightning in coastal and inland areas of Guangdong Province of China during the pre-summer rainy season(PSRS)from 2008 to 2017 reveals distinct *** the inland target region(ITR),rainfall is concentrated in the central and eastern mountainous *** exhibits a bimodal diurnal variation,with peaks in the afternoon and *** afternoon peak becomes more pronounced during the post-monsoon-onset period because of the increased rainfall ***,in the coastal target region(CTR),rainfall concentrates around mountainous ***,CTR’s rainfall is weaker than ITR’s during the pre-monsoon-onset period,primarily associated with the lower-level moisture outflow in CTR,but it strengthens significantly during the post-monsoon-onset period owing to enhanced moisture ***’s diurnal rainfall variation transitions from bimodal to a single broad peak during the post-monsoon-onset period,influenced by changes in both rainfall frequency and *** contrast to rainfall,the spatiotemporal distribution of lightning centers remains relatively stable during the *** strongest center is located over ITR’s plains west of the rainfall center,with a secondary center in the western plains of *** activity significantly increases during the post-monsoon-onset period,particularly in ITR,primarily because of the increased lightning *** diurnal lightning flash density and lightning hours show a single afternoon peak in the two target regions,and the timing of the peak in ITR is approximately two hours later than in *** circulation analysis indicates that during early morning,the lower atmosphere is nearly neutral in *** advected warm,moist,unstable airflow,combined with topography,favors convection *** the afternoon,solar radiation increases thermal instability,further enhancing the convection frequency and in

关键词： rainfall lightning spatiotemporal distribution diurnal variation pre-summer rainy season

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Improved forecasting via physics-guided machine learning as exemplified using“21·7”extreme rainfall event in Henan

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1652-1674页

作者： Qi ZHONG Zhicha ZHANG Xiuping YAO Shaoyu HOU Shenming FU Yong CAO Linguo JING China meteorological Administration Training center Beijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Zhejiang meteorological Observatory Hangzhou 310017China Hebei Provincial Weather Modification center Shijiazhuang 050020China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China National meteorological center Beijing 100081China School of Computer Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China

As a natural disaster,extreme precipitation is among the most destructive and influential,but predicting its occurrence and evolution accurately is very challenging because of its rarity and *** the example of the“21·7”extreme precipitation event(17–21 July 2021)in Henan Province,this study explores the potential of using physics-guided machine learning to improve the accuracy of forecasting the intensity and location of extreme *** physics-guided ways of embedding physical features,fusing physical model forecasts and revised loss function are used,i.e.,(1)analyzing the anomalous circulation and thermodynamical factors,(2)analyzing the multi-model forecast bias and the associated underlying reasons for it,and(3)using professional forecasting knowledge to design the loss function,and the corresponding results are used as input for machine learning to improve the forecasting *** results indicate that by learning the relationship between anomalous physical features and heavy precipitation,the forecasting of precipitation intensity is improved significantly,but the location is rarely adjusted and more false alarms *** reasons for this are as *** anomalous features used here mainly contain information about large-scale systems and factors which are consistent with the model precipitation deviation;moreover,the samples of extreme precipitation are sparse and so the algorithm used here is ***,by combining“good and different”multi models with machine learning,the advantages of each model are extracted and then the location of the precipitation center in the forecast is improved ***,by combining the appropriate anomalous features with multi-model fusion,an integrated improvement of the forecast of the rainfall intensity and location is ***,this study is a novel exploration to improve the refined forecasting of heavy precipitation with extreme intensity and high variability,

关键词： Extreme precipitation event Refined assessment Anomalous physical features Multi-model fusion Machine learning

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Influence of Irregular Coastlines on a Tornadic Mesovortex in the Pearl River Delta during the Monsoon Season. Part Ⅰ:Pre-storm Environment and Storm Evolution

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第9期41卷 1115-1131页

作者： Lanqiang BAI Dan YAO Zhiyong MENG Yu ZHANG Xianxiang HUANG Zhaoming LI Xiaoding YU Foshan Tornado Research center and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratoryGuangdong Meteorological Serviceand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Guangdong 528000China meteorological Observation Centre CMABeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratorySchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Guangzhou meteorological Observatory CMAGuangdong 511430China Foshan Tornado Research center and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratoryCMAGuangdong 528000China China meteorological Administration Training center CMABeijing 528000China

The Pearl River Delta(PRD),a tornado hotspot,forms a distinct trumpet-shaped coastline that concaves toward the South China *** the summer monsoon season,low-level southwesterlies over the PRD’s sea surface tend to be turned toward the west coast,constituting a convergent wind field along with the landward-side southwesterlies,which influences regional convective *** two-part study explores the roles of this unique land–sea contrast of the trumpet-shaped coastline in the formation of a tornadic mesovortex within monsoonal flows in this *** I primarily presents observational analyses of pre-storm environments and storm *** rotating storm developed in a lowshear environment(not ideal for a supercell)under the interactions of three air masses under the influence of the land–sea contrast,monsoon,and storm cold *** intersection zone(or“triple point”)is typically characterized by local enhancements of ambient vertical vorticity and *** on a rapid-scan X-band phased-array radar,finger-like echoes were recognized shortly after the gust front intruded on the triple *** over the triple point,they rapidly wrapped up with a well-defined low-level *** is thus presumed that the triple point may have played roles in the mesovortex genesis,which will be demonstrated in Part II with multiple sensitivity numerical *** findings also suggest that when storms pass over the boundary intersection zone in the PRD,the expected possibility of a rotating storm occurring is relatively high,even in a low-shear *** knowledge of such environments provides additional guidance to assess the regional tornado risk.

关键词： tornado mesovortex surface boundary land–sea contrast monsoon

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Construction and Application of a Regional Kilometer-Scale Carbon Source and Sink Assimilation Inversion System(CCMVS-R)

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Engineering 2024年第2期33卷 263-275页

作者： Lifeng Guo Xiaoye Zhang Junting Zhong Deying Wang Changhong Miao Licheng Zhao Zijiang Zhou Jie Liao Bo Hu Lingyun Zhu Yan Chen Monitoring and Assessment center for GHGs and Carbon Neutrality&Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Laboratory of Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality Henan UniversityZhengzhou 450001China National meteorological Information center Beijing 100081China Shanxi meteorological Administration Taiyuan 030002China Shanxi Provincial Institute of meteorological Sciences Taiyuan 030002China Jiangsu Provincial Climate center Nanjing 210000China

CO_(2)is one of the most important greenhouse gases(GHGs)in the earth’s *** the industrial era,anthropogenic activities have emitted excessive quantities of GHGs into the atmosphere,resulting in climate warming since the 1950s and leading to an increased frequency of extreme weather and climate *** 2020,China committed to striving for carbon neutrality by *** commitment and China’s consequent actions will result in significant changes in global and regional anthropogenic carbon emissions and therefore require timely,comprehensive,and objective monitoring and verification support(MVS)*** MVS approach relies on the top-down assimilation and inversion of atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations,as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)Inventory Guidelines in ***,the regional high-resolution assimilation and inversion method is still in its initial stage of ***,we have constructed an inverse system for carbon sources and sinks at the kilometer level by coupling proper orthogonal decomposition(POD)with four-dimensional variational(4DVar)data assimilation based on the weather research and forecasting-greenhouse gas(WRF-GHG)*** China Carbon Monito ring and Verification Support at the Regional level(CCMVS-R)system can continuously assimilate information on atmospheric CO_(2)and other related information and realize the inversion of regional and local anthropogenic carbon emissions and natural terrestrial ecosystem carbon *** CO_(2)data were collected from six ground-based monito ring sites in Shanxi Province,China to verify the inversion effect of regio nal anthropogenic carbon emissions by setting ideal and real experiments using a two-layer nesting method(at 27 and 9 km).The uncertainty of the simulated atmospheric CO_(2)decreased significantly,with a root-mean-square error of CO_(2)concentration values between the ideal value and the simulated after assimilation was close to

关键词： CCMVS-R Regional carbon assimilation system Anthropogenic carbon emissions CO_(2) POD 4DVar

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Fusion SST from Infrared and Microwave Measurement of FY-3D meteorological Satellite

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 89-96页

作者：张淼徐娜陈林 National Satellite meteorological center/National center for Space Weather Beijing 100081 China Innovation center for Fengyun meteorological Satellite(FYSIC) Beijing 100081 China Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China

Sea surface temperature(SST)is one of the important parameters of global ocean and climate research,which can be retrieved by satellite infrared and passive microwave remote sensing *** satellite infrared SST offers high spatial resolution,it is limited by cloud *** the other hand,passive microwave SST provides all-weather observation but suffers from poor spatial resolution and susceptibility to environmental factors such as rainfall,coastal effects,and high wind *** achieve high-precision,comprehensive,and high-resolution SST data,it is essential to fuse infrared and microwave SST *** this study,data from the Fengyun-3D(FY-3D)medium resolution spectral imager II(MERSI-II)SST and microwave imager(MWRI)SST were ***,the accuracy of both MERSIII SST and MWRI SST was verified,and the latter was bilinearly interpolated to match the 5km resolution grid of MERSI *** pretreatment and quality control of MERSI SST and MWRI SST,a Piece-Wise Regression method was employed to correct biases in MWRI ***,SST data were selected based on spatial resolution and accuracy within a 3-day window of the analysis ***,an optimal interpolation method was applied to fuse the FY-3D MERSI-II SST and MWRI *** results demonstrated a significant improvement in spatial coverage compared to MERSI-II SST and MWRI ***,the fusion SST retained true spatial distribution details and exhibited an accuracy of–0.12±0.74℃compared to OSTIA *** study has improved the accuracy of FY satellite fusion SST products in China.

关键词： SST data fusion FY3 infrared microwave

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A New Method for Deriving High-Vertical-Resolution Wind Vector Data from the L-Band Radar Sounding System in China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第11期 2192-2202页

作者： Fang YUAN Zijiang ZHOU Jie LIAO National meteorological Information center China Meteorological Administration

High-vertical-resolution radiosonde wind data are highly valuable for describing the dynamics of the meso-and microscale atmosphere. However, the current algorithm used in China's L-band radar sounding system for calculating highvertical-resolution wind vectors excessively smooths the data, resulting in significant underestimation of the calculated kinetic energy of gravity waves compared to similar products from other countries, which greatly limits the effective utilization of the data. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel method to calculate high-vertical-resolution wind vectors that utilizes the elevation angle, azimuth angle, and slant range from L-band radar. In order to obtain wind data with a stable quality, a two-step automatic quality control procedure, including the RMSE-F(root-mean-square error F) test and elemental consistency test are first applied to the slant range data, to eliminate continuous erroneous data caused by unstable signals or radar malfunctions. Then, a wind calculation scheme based on a sliding second-order polynomial fitting is utilized to derive the high-vertical-resolution radiosonde wind vectors. The evaluation results demonstrate that the wind data obtained through the proposed method show a high level of consistency with the high-resolution wind data observed using the Vaisala Global Positioning System and the data observed by the new Beidou Navigation Sounding System. The calculation of the kinetic energy of gravity waves in the recalculated wind data also reaches a level comparable to the Vaisala observations.

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Factors Influencing the Spatial Variability of Air Temperature Urban Heat Island Intensity in Chinese Cities

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第5期41卷 817-829页

作者： Heng LYU Wei WANG Keer ZHANG Chang CAO Wei XIAO Xuhui LEE Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Carbon Source and SinkChina Meteorological Administration(ECSS-CMA)/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural MeteorologyNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China School of the Environment Yale UniversityNew HavenCT 06511USA

Few studies have investigated the spatial patterns of the air temperature urban heat island(AUHI)and its controlling *** this study,the data generated by an urban climate model were used to investigate the spatial variations of the AUHI across China and the underlying climate and ecological drivers.A total of 355 urban clusters were *** performed an attribution analysis of the AUHI to elucidate the mechanisms underlying its *** results show that the midday AUHI is negatively correlated with climate wetness(humid:0.34 K;semi-humid:0.50 K;semi-arid:0.73 K).The annual mean midnight AUHI does not show discernible spatial patterns,but is generally stronger than the midday *** urban–rural difference in convection efficiency is the largest contributor to the midday AUHI in the humid(0.32±0.09 K)and the semi-arid(0.36±0.11 K)climate *** release of anthropogenic heat from urban land is the dominant contributor to the midnight AUHI in all three climate *** rural vegetation density is the most important driver of the daytime and nighttime AUHI spatial variations.A spatial covariance analysis revealed that this vegetation influence is manifested mainly through its regulation of heat storage in rural land.

关键词： air temperature urban heat island spatial variations biophysical drivers Chinese cities climate model

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