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Advantages of the Multimodel Ensemble Approach for Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction in China and the Driving Factor of the MJO

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第3期42卷 551-563页

作者： Li GUO Jie WU Qingquan LI Xiaolong JIA China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation centre On Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210066China

Based on the hindcasts from five subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)models participating in the S2S Prediction Project,this study evaluates the performance of the multimodel ensemble(MME)approach in predicting the subseasonal precipitation anomalies during summer in China and reveals the contributions of possible driving *** results suggest that while single-model ensembles(SMEs)exhibit constrained predictive skills within a limited forecast lead time of three pentads,the MME illustrates an enhanced predictive skill at a lead time of up to four pentads,and even six pentads,in southern *** on both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics,the MME consistently outperforms SMEs,with a more evident advantage observed in probabilistic *** superior performance of the MME is primarily attributable to the increase in ensemble size,and the enhanced model diversity is also a contributing *** reliability of probabilistic skill is largely improved due to the increase in ensemble members,while the resolution term does not exhibit consistent ***,the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO)is revealed as the primary driving factor for the successful prediction of summer precipitation in China using the *** improvement by the MME is not solely attributable to the enhancement in the inherent predictive capacity of the MJO itself,but derives from its capability in capturing the more realistic relationship between the MJO and subseasonal precipitation anomalies in *** study establishes a scientific foundation for acknowledging the advantageous predictive capability of the MME approach in subseasonal predictions of summer precipitation in China,and sheds light on further improving S2S predictions.

关键词： multimodel ensemble subseasonal predictions summer precipitation S2S model MJO

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Pods Filling in Natural Pollination of 10 Spontaneous Cocoa Trees from French Guiana

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Agricultural Sciences 2025年第1期16卷 193-205页

作者： Inago Caudou Trebissou Gnion Mathias Tahi Kacou Antoine Alban M’bo Cacao Breeding Laboratory National Center for Agronomic Research (CNRA) Research Station of Divo Divo Cte dIvoire african Center of excellence on climate change Biodiversity and Sustainable Agriculture (CEA-CCBAD/WASCAL) Flix Houphout-Boigny University (UFHB) Abidjan Cte dIvoire

The study focuses on the filling of pods from ten cacao clones originating from French Guiana in Côte d’Ivoire. Two reference clones (IFC5 and NA32) were used as controls. The parameters studied include the number of ovules per ovary, the average number of beans per pod, the fresh bean weight, and the pod index. The aim was to evaluate the genetic variability and agronomic performance of these clones under natural pollination conditions. The results show significant genetic variability between the clones for all traits studied. The IFC5 clone, known for its excellent pod filling, exhibited the highest apparent fertility (0.91), while the GU183/A clone had the lowest filling (0.47). Three types of distributions of the number of beans per pod were identified: a right-skewed unimodal distribution, characteristic of well-filled clones;a left-skewed unimodal distribution, associated with poorly filled clones;and an intermediate bimodal distribution. These differences could be related to pollination compatibility and the availability of compatible pollen. Regarding the fresh bean weight and pod index, the GU183/A clone stood out with the heaviest beans (3.27 g) but had a high pod index (49.58), indicating relatively low productivity. None of the Guyanese clones achieved the filling level of the IFC5 clone, although some surpassed the NA32 control. This study highlights the importance of apparent fertility and the number of beans per pod as essential criteria for cacao genetic improvement programs. The authors recommend extending research to a larger number of Guyanese clones and exploring complementary traits, such as the influence of pollination type and intergroup compatibility.

关键词： Theobroma cacao Phytophthora Pod Index Apparent Fertility

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An integrated approach for GLOF hazard,vulnerability and risk assessment in the Karakoram Mountain Range of northern Pakistan

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Journal of Mountain Science 2025年第1期22卷 142-155页

作者： Sajid ULLAH Muhammad SHAFIQUE Ghazanfar Ali KHATTAK Attaullah SHAH Yaseen ULLAH National centre of excellence in Geology University of PeshawarPeshawar 25000Pakistan GIS and Space Application in Geosciences National Centre of GIS and Space Applications(NCGSA)Islamabad 44000Pakistan Karakoram International University Gilgit 15100Pakistan

climate change and rising temperatures are accelerating the rate of deglaciation in the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalaya(HKH)ranges,leading to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing *** lakes are often vulnerable to failure,posing a significant threat to downstream communities and ***,a comprehensive assessment of Glacier-Lake Outburst Flood(GLOF)hazards and risk assessment is crucial to evaluate flood runout characteristics and identify settlements and infrastructure that are exposed and vulnerable to floods,aiding in the development and implementation of risk reduction *** study aims to simulate a GLOF event induced by the Shisper glacier lake in northern Pakistan,using the HEC-RAS,and to assess its impact on settlements,infrastructure,and agricultural *** the hydrometeorological analysis of the GLOF event,topographic data from unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs),stream profiles,discharge data,Manning's roughness coefficient(n),and land use/land cover(LULC)were analyzed using HEC-RAS and geographic information system(GIS).During the GLOF event on May 7,2022,a maximum water depth of 6.3 m and a maximum velocity of 9.5 m/s were *** on the runout characteristics of this event,vulnerability and risk assessments have been *** physical,social,and environmental vulnerabilities of the at-risk elements were evaluated using the analytical hierarchy process(AHP)and integrated with the hazard data to develop a risk *** study identified the areas,infrastructure and settlements susceptible to GLOF hazard to support the development and implementation of targeted and evidence-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.

关键词： GLOF Hazard assessment Glacial lake HEC-RAS Vulnerability and risk Shisper glacier

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Emerging potential of progranulin-dependent SorCS2 signaling in healthy and diseased nervous systems

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Neural Regeneration Research 2025年第9期20卷 2591-2593页

作者： Alena Salasova Anders Nykjær Danish Research Institute of Translational Neuroscience DANDRITE-Nordic EMBL Partnership for Molecular Medicine and Centre of Excellence PROMEMODepartment of BiomedicineAarhus UniversityAarhusDenmark

The formation of the mammalian nervous system and its maturation into sensory,motor,cognitive,and behavioral circuits is a complex process that begins during early embryogenesis and lasts until young *** neurodevelopm... 详细信息

关键词： progr jointly CS2

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Acellular scaffold‑based approach for in situ genetic engineering of host T‑cells in solid tumor immunotherapy

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Military Medical Research 2025年第1期12卷 16-35页

作者： Hiren Y.Dandia Mamatha M.Pillai Deepak Sharma Meghna Suvarna Neha Dalal Ayush Madhok Arvind Ingle Shubhada V.Chiplunkar Sanjeev Galande Prakriti Tayalia Department of Biosciences and Bioengineering Indian Institute of Technology BombayPowaiMumbai 400076India Radiation Biology and Health Sciences Division Bhabha Atomic Research CentreMumbai 400085India centre of excellence in Epigenetics Department of BiologyIndian Institute of Science Education and ResearchPune 411008India Advanced centre for Treatment Research and Education in Cancer(ACTREC)Tata Memorial CentreKhargharMumbai 410210India

Background:Targeted T-cell therapy has emerged as a promising strategy for the treatment of hematological ***,its application to solid tumors presents significant challenges due to the limited accessibility and *** delivery of tumor-specific T-cells using biomaterials has shown promise,however,procedures required for genetic modification and generation of a sufficient number of tumor-specific T-cells ex vivo remain major obstacles due to cost and time ***:Polyethylene glycol(PEG)-based three-dimensional(3D)scaffolds were developed and conjugated with positively charged poly-L-lysine(PLL)using carbamide chemistry for efficient loading of lentiviruses(LVs)carrying tumor antigen-specific T-cell receptors(TCRs).The physical and biological properties of the scaffold were extensively ***,the scaffold loaded with OVA-TCR LVs was implanted in B16F10 cells expressing ovalbumin(B16-OVA)tumor model to evaluate the anti-tumor response and the presence of transduced ***:Our findings demonstrate that the scaffolds do not induce any systemic inflammation upon subcutaneous implantation and effectively recruit T-cells to the *** B16-OVA melanoma tumor-bearing mice,the scaffolds efficiently transduce host T-cells with OVA-specific *** genetically modified T-cells exhibit homing capability towards the tumor and secondary lymphoid organs,resulting in a significant reduction of tumor size and systemic increase in anti-tumor *** cell profiling revealed a significantly high percentage of transduced T-cells and a notable reduction in suppressor immune cells within the tumors of mice implanted with these ***:Our scaffold-based T-cell therapy presents an innovative in situ localized approach for programming T-cells to target solid *** approach offers a viable alternative to in vitro manipulation of T-cells,circumventing the need for large-scale in vitro generat

关键词： Polyethylene glycol diacrylate Poly-L-lysine Lentiviruses T-cell therapy B16F10-OVA melanoma

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Impact of CR Forbush Decreases on Upper Atmospheric Pressure and Temperature in Saudi Arabia

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Atmospheric and climate Sciences 2025年第1期15卷 200-217页

作者： Maghrabi Abdullrahman Alghamdi Rasha Aldosari Abdulah Almutairy Mohammed National centre for climate change King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology Riyadh Saudi Arabia Astronomy and Space Science Department Faculty of Science King Abdulaziz University Jeddah Saudi Arabia

The objective of this research is to investigate the effects of cosmic ray Forbush Decreases (FDs) exceeding 7% in magnitude, occurring between 1985 and 2016, on upper atmospheric pressure and temperature at Abha and Tabouk. Employing the super epoch analysis method, the study concentrated on altitudes of 5 km and 10 km, uncovering significant variations. Seasonal and synoptic-scale variations were considered and excluded when necessary across eight 9-day periods. Both locations showed considerable fluctuations in pressure and temperature before and after the events. At 5 km altitude (21 events), Abha experienced more pressure increases both before (9 vs. 7) and after (12 vs. 11) the events compared to Tabouk. For temperature, Abha recorded more increases before the events (5 vs. 1), while Tabouk showed more decreases (19 vs. 15). Post-event, Tabouk had more temperature increases (13 vs. 10). At 10 km altitude (20 events), both regions experienced more decreases than increases in pressure and temperature before the events and more increases afterward. Notably, Abha experienced more pressure increases both 4 days before (9 vs. 7) and after the events (12 vs. 11) than Tabouk. For temperature, Abha recorded more increases before the events (5 vs. 1), while Tabouk showed more decreases (19 vs. 15). Post-event, Tabouk had more temperature increases (13 vs. 10). These findings underscore both similarities and differences in atmospheric responses to FDs between Abha and Tabouk. Both locations exhibited cooling trends before and warming trends after the events, with Tabouk demonstrating a more pronounced warming trend post-event. These results enhance our understanding of the atmospheric dynamics linked to FDs and assist in predicting weather patterns associated with these phenomena.

关键词： Forbush Decrease Upper Air Temperature Saudi Arabia climate change Solar Activity

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Enhancing microbial superoxide generation and conversion to hydroxyl radicals for enhanced bioremediation using iron-binding ligands

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2025年第1期147卷 597-606页

作者： Yuhan Wang Xue Ning Jinsong Liang Aijie Wang Jiuhui Qu School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Harbin Institute of TechnologyShenzhen 518055China SFI MaREI centre for Energy Climate and MarineEnvironmental Research InstituteUniversity College CorkCorkIreland Center for Water and Ecology Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Harnessing bacteria for superoxide production in bioremediation holds immense promise,yet its practical application is hindered by slow production rates and the relatively weak redox potential of *** study delves into a cost-effective approach to amplify superoxide production using an Arthrobacter strain,a prevalent soil bacterial *** research reveals that introducing a carbon source along with specific iron-binding ligands,including deferoxamine(DFO),diethylenetriamine pentaacetate(DTPA),citrate,and oxalate,robustly augments microbial superoxide ***,our findings suggest that these iron-binding ligands play a pivotal role in converting superoxide into hydroxyl radicals by modulating the electron transfer rate between Fe(Ⅲ)/Fe(Ⅱ)and ***,among the tested ligands,only DTPA emerges as a potent promoter of this conversion process when complexed with Fe(Ⅲ).We identify an optimal Fe(Ⅲ)to DTPA ratio of approximately 1:1 for enhancing hydroxyl radical production within the Arthrobacter *** research underscores the efficacy of simultaneously introducing carbon sources and DTPA in facilitating superoxide production and its subsequent conversion to hydroxyl radicals,significantly elevating bioremediation ***,our study reveals that DTPA augments superoxide production in cultures of diverse soils,with various soil microorganisms beyond Arthrobacter identified as contributors to superoxide *** emphasizes the universal applicability of DTPA across multiple bacterial *** conclusion,our study introduces a promising methodology for enhancing microbial superoxide production and its conversion into hydroxyl *** findings hold substantial implications for the deployment of microbial reactive oxygen species in bioremediation,offering innovative solutions for addressing environmental contamination challenges.

关键词： Superoxide Hydroxyl radical Iron-binding ligand Bioremediation DTPA

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Enhancing weather predictions: Initial condition sensitivity and error dynamics in data assimilation

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Science China Earth Sciences 2025年第2期68卷 649-652页

作者： Weiwei FU Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and climate Ministry of EducationFudan UniversityShanghai 200438China IRDR International Center of excellence on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

Data Assimilation(DA) plays a crucial role in modern numerical forecasting(Kalnay, 2002). It has been demonstrated that incorporating real-time observational data into forecast models significantly enhances the accuracy of both shortterm weather forecasts(Bauer et al., 2015;Bannister, 2017)and long-term climate predictions(Karspeck et al., 2013;Mochizuki et al., 2016).

关键词： weather assimilation forecasting

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The Slowest Coupon Collector's Problem

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2025年

作者： KRITYAKIERNE Tipaluck THANATIPANONDA Thotsaporn Aek Department of Mathematics Faculty of Science Mahidol University centre of excellence in Mathematics MHESI Science Division Mahidol University International College

In the classical coupon collector's problem, every box of breakfast cereal contains one coupon from a collection of n distinct coupons, each equally likely to appear. The goal is to find the expected number of boxes a player needs to purchase to complete the whole collection. In this work,the authors extend the classical problem to k players who compete with one another to be the first to collect the whole collection. The authors find the expected numbers of boxes required for the slowest and fastest players to finish the game. The odds of a particular player being the slowest or fastest player will also be touched upon. Using the law of total expectation, the solutions will be discussed from both the tractable recurrence relation as well as the probability point of views.

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Compound hot drought events in the Mei-yu region:influences from polar and tropical regions

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Science Bulletin 2025年第2期70卷 273-282页

作者： Huixin Li Bo Sun Zhongshi Zhang Huijun Wang Yeran Zhou Jiani Zeng Botao Zhou Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory Zhuhai 519000China Nansen-Zhu International Research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric Science School of Environmental StudiesChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China School of Geographic Science Nantong UniversityNantong 226019China

In the Mei-yu region,there has been noticeable increase in the occurrence of compound hot drought(CHD)events in recent ***,the underlying causes of these occurrences remain poorly *** address this knowledge gap,we conducted a comprehensive study utilizing observational datasets,reanalysis datasets,and four numerical experiments to investigate the associated physical *** findings indicated that the prevalence of CHD events in the Mei-yu region is influenced strongly by two key factors:the decline in Barents Sea ice during February and the presence of a La Ni?alike pattern of sea surface temperature(SST)in *** decline in Barents Sea ice generates an anomalous Rossby wave in the Arctic that propagates *** La Ni?a-like SST pattern regulates a Rossby wave over western America,propagating along the subtropical jet *** two Rossby waves induce northward movement and strengthened intensity of the subtropical westerly jet in East *** local circulation patterns in the Mei-yu region are influenced by the position and intensity of the subtropical jet,leading to downward motion in accordance with the secondary circulation theory for high-altitude jet ***,these local circulation patterns might contribute to occurrence of CHD ***,our analysis revealed that the impact of Barents Sea ice and the La Ni?a-like SST pattern can explain approximately two-thirds of the mild CHD events in the Mei-yu region,and that the influence of each is relatively *** research underscores influences of polar–tropical systems on climate extremes in eastern Asia.

关键词： Compound hot drought events Mei-yu region June-July Barents Sea ice La Niña-like SST Respective and combined influences

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