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Partial Linear Model Averaging Prediction for Longitudinal Data

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2024年第2期37卷 863-885页

作者： LI Na FEI Yu ZHANG Xinyu Faculty of Science Kunming University of Science and TechnologyKunming 650500China School of Statistics and Mathematics Yunnan University of Finance and EconomicsKunming 650221China academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

Prediction plays an important role in data *** averaging method generally provides better prediction than using any of its *** though model averaging has been extensively investigated under independent errors,few authors have considered model averaging for semiparametric models with correlated *** this paper,the authors offer an optimal model averaging method to improve the prediction in partially linear model for longitudinal *** model averaging weights are obtained by minimizing criterion,which is an unbiased estimator of the expected in-sample squared error loss plus a *** properties,including asymptotic optimality and consistency of averaging weights,are established under two scenarios:(i)All candidate models are misspecified;(ii)Correct models are available in the candidate *** studies and an empirical example show that the promise of the proposed procedure over other competitive methods.

关键词： Asymptotic optimality longitudinal data model averaging estimator partially linear model prediction

The Impact of Digital finance on High-Quality Development of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

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Contemporary Social Sciences 2024年第2期9卷 1-15页

作者： Wei Liangyi Bai Xiaobo Li Qin Sichuan academy of Social Sciences ChengduSichuan610072China Central University of finance and Economics

This paper developed a comprehensive evaluation system that was able to quantify the levels of high-quality development across the cities within the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle,and investigate the impact that digital finance had on the cities’high-quality development and the underlying mechanisms through which it achieved *** comprehensive evaluation system was constructed using statistical data from these cities for the period 2014 to 2020 while also taking China’s high-quality development philosophy into *** key findings revealed that:(a)Digital finance was able to significantly promote high-quality development in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle;(b)Digital finance had a significant positive effect in promoting innovative,coordinated,green,open,and shared development;(c)Digital finance was able to stimulate the high-quality development in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle by boosting entrepreneurial dynamism;(d)Digital finance had a significant impact on the high-quality development of the axis areas,while its impact was less discernible in non-axis *** insights from this research offer a deeper understanding of the factors that drive high-quality development,the role digital finance plays,and the mechanisms through which digital finance is able to propel high-quality development at the city cluster scale.

关键词： digital finance Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle high-quality development

Analyses of Political Crisis Impact on Tourism:A Panel Counterfactual Approach with Internet Search Index

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2024年第4期37卷 1581-1603页

作者： HUANG Bai SUN Yuying YANG Boyu School of Statistics and Mathematics Central University of Finance&EconomicsBeijing 102206China academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Center for Forecasting Science Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China School of Economics and Management University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

Existing research has shown that political crisis events can directly impact the tourism ***,the current methods suffer from potential changes of unobserved variables,which poses challenges for a reliable evaluation of the political crisis *** paper proposes a panel counterfactual approach with Internet search index,which can quantitatively capture the change of crisis impacts across time and disentangle the effect of the event of interest from the *** also provides a tool to examine potential channels through which the crisis may affect tourist *** research empirically applies the framework to analyze the THAAD event on tourist flows from the Chinese Mainland to South *** highlight the strong and negative short-term impact of the political crisis on the tourists' intentions to visit a *** paper provides essential evidence to help decision-makers improve the management of the tourism crisis.

关键词： Composite search index counterfactual analysis political crisis search query data tourism demand

Defusing Triple Pressure to Promote High-Quality Economic Development Rapidly

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Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities 2024年第1期19卷 30-58页

作者： WANG Hongju ZHANG Xinyu Schoolof Applied Economics University of Chinese Academyof Social SciencesBeijing 12488China National academy of Economic Strategy Chinese Academy of Social SciencesBeijing 100006China School of finance Zhejiang University of Finance&EconomicsHangzhou 310018China

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC),the quality of China's economic development has been continuously ***,the year 2022 witnessed a subdued economic growth *** triple pressures continue to evolve,with contraction in demand as the primary contradiction facing China's macro economy in the short *** contrast to major economies in the world,China grapples with a low economic growth-inflation index combination,a pace of economic expansion trailing behind its potential,and a mounting unemployment *** impact of supply on price increases weakens,while the global industrial and supply chains are amidst continuous *** the consumer confidence index(Ccl)and the purchasing managers'index(PMl)remain *** expectation for the depreciation of the RMB against US dollar is *** 2023,China will continue to improve the financing environment and carry out a proactive fiscal ***,there is a moderation trend in the trajectory of the interest rate of the Federal Reserve System *** together,these factors(triple pressures)are expected to mitigate the contraction in demand,thereby steering the economy toward robust ***,it is crucial to recognize that low economic growth in the long term may compromise the quality of economic *** year 2023 is the first year of accelerating Chinese modernization after the 2Oth National Congress of the *** should integrate the strategy to expand internal demand with its efforts to deepen supply-side structural *** can foster the coordinated growth of both economic quality and speed,making a good start for Chinese modernization.

关键词： high-quality development output gap strategy to expand domestic demand supply-sidestructuralreform

How mutual funds respond to asymmetric feedback tradingin China’s stock market

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Journal of Management Science and Engineering 2024年第2期9卷 143-160页

作者： Die Wan Li Yang Xiaoguang Yang School of finance Zhejiang Gongshang UniversityHangzhou310018China Business School University of New South WalesSydneyAustralia academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Previous studies show that individual investors play a dominant role in China's stock *** behavior of chasing-rise being stronger than killing-fall leads to asymmetry of feedback *** article investigates how mutual funds react to this market *** China's stock and fund data from 2003 to 2019,we find that mutual funds tend to hold fewer shares when asymmetric feedback trading of the relevant stock gets more *** negative relationship is robust after controlling past returns,turnover rates,and firm risk factors,moreover,it attenuates when the market sentiment is bullish or when stocks are allowed *** results show that mutual funds'selling towards asymmetric feedback trading does not make excess return but leads to significant risk *** findings may be related to uncertainty associated with asymmetric feedback trading,and thus support the limit market participation theory from the second largest stock market.

关键词： Asymmetric feedback trading Mutual fund shareholdings Uncertainty Market sentiment Short selling

Which Factors Influence the Effect of Deep Synthesized Video Propagation

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Journal of Systems Science and Information 2024年第3期12卷 393-411页

作者： Lixia MA Jingjing WANG Yiwei RU Yunjie WEI School of Economics and Management University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China School of Economics and finance Xi'an Jiaotong UniversityXi'an 710061China Institute of Automation Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

Deep synthesis technology is an emerging artificial intelligence *** have been a large number of audio and video contents based on deep synthesis technology spreading in the *** this paper,we take the deep synthetic videos on YouTube platform as the research object,and investigate the factors influencing the propagation effect of deep synthetic videos by establishing an ordered probit *** is found that the effect of deep synthesized video transmission of YouTube platform is mainly influenced by factors such as the video type,video duration,influence of publishers and forms of *** addition,the comparative analysis of ordinary video and in-depth synthesized video reveals that both the video transmission effect are significantly affected by the video type,video duration and the influence of publishers.

关键词： deep synthesized video transmission effect ordered probit model

Analyst Coverage,Forecasting Bias,and Corporate Innovation:Evidence from China

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Journal of Systems Science and Information 2024年第1期12卷 1-24页

作者： Xinping MA Yiru WANG Jianping LI Biao SHI School of Economics and Management University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China School of finance Nankai UniversityTianjin 300071China Institutes of Science and Development Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

Due to information asymmetry and strategic innovation,firms often encounter challenges related to insufficient driving forces and low-quality innovation *** always act as information intermediaries who help foster the advancement of corporate innovation activities and the conversion of innovation *** study examines the impact of analyst coverage and forecasting bias on corporate innovation,employing data from China A-shared listed firms spanning the period 2007 to *** measure corporate innovation from two perspectives:Input and ***,we use the ratio of research and development(R&D)expenditure to sales as a proxy for the innovation input and the number of patent citations excluding self-citations to measure innovation *** find that analyst coverage promotes corporate innovation,which is consistent with the“bright”side of analyst ***,the positive effect of analyst coverage hinges on effectively transmitting and disclosing accurate information to investors in the capital *** on this,analysts'forecasting bias includes forecasting dispersion and optimism *** find evidence that an increase in analysts'forecast dispersion leads to a decrease in corporate innovation ***,this paper presents a novel approach by employing the regression discontinuity method to examine the effect of analyst optimistic bias on firm *** empirical findings reveal that overly optimistic forecasts by analysts exacerbate innovation *** analyses enrich the research on analyst coverage and corporate innovation,providing an empirical basis for improving the capital market with the help of analysts.

关键词： analyst coverage forecasting bias corporate innovation innovation quality

Exploring the impacts of major events on the systemic risk of the international energy market

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Petroleum Science 2024年第2期21卷 1444-1457页

作者： Ming-Tao Zhao Su-Wan Lu Lian-Biao Cui School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics Anhui University of Finance and EconomicsBengbu233030AnhuiChina Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Science of Low-Carbon Development and Carbon finance Anhui University of Finance and EconomicsBengbu233030AnhuiChina

This study examines the systemic risk caused by major events in the international energy market(IEM)and proposes a management strategy to mitigate it. Using the tail-event driven network(TENET)method, this study constructed a tail-risk spillover network(TRSN) of IEM and simulated the dynamic spillover tail-risk process through the cascading failure mechanism. The study found that renewable energy markets contributed more to systemic risk during the Paris Agreement and the COVID-19pandemic, while fossil energy markets played a larger role during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This study identifies systemically important markets(SM) and critical tail-risk spillover paths as potential sources of systemic risk. The research confirms that cutting off the IEM risk spillover path can greatly reduce systemic risk and the influence of SM. This study offers insights into the management of systemic risk in IEM and provides policy recommendations to reduce the impact of shock events.

关键词： International energy market Tail-risk spillover Cascading failure mechanism Systemic risk management

Can whole steps of grain production be outsourced? Empirical analysis based on the three provinces of Jiangsu,Jilin,and Sichuan in China

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2024年第1期23卷 336-347页

作者： Jiacheng Liu Shengzhi Mao Qiufen Zheng Zhigang Xu School of finance and Taxation Nanjing University of Finance and EconomicsJiangsu 210023China School of Economics Southwestern University of Finance and EconomicsSichuan 611130China School of Economics and Management Nanjing Agricultural UniversityJiangsu 210095China

Certain outsourcing services for agricultural management in China,such as pest control in grain production,have experienced prolonged sluggishness,contrasting with the relatively high level of outsourcing services observed in harvesting,land preparation,and *** study examines the feasibility of implementing whole-step outsourcing in grain production by conducting a case study of rice and maize production in Jiangsu,Jilin,and Sichuan provinces in *** provision of outsourcing services hinges on two essential conditions:technological advancements fostering specialized production and economies of scale,coupled with a market size sufficient to realize the aforementioned potential economies of *** results showed that outsourcing pest control or harvesting services had varying economies of *** outsourcing services in pest control were less common than in harvesting services,and their marginal growth space of the economies of scale with technological change was also *** by the operational characteristics of pest control itself,the market scale of its professional services is ***,achieving the whole-step outsourcing of grain production necessitates not only technological innovation but also effective policy interventions to overcome the constraints of market *** interventions include(1)optimizing crop layouts between planning regions and reducing land fragmentation and(2)supplying timely and effective inter-regional agricultural information for service providers aided by information technology.

关键词： outsourcing services economy of scale technical conditions market scale