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PRELIMINARY RESEARCH ON THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE INNER CORE SIZE AND OUTER SIZE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AND THEIR INTENSITY

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2014年第4期20卷 308-313页

作者：吴联要雷小途 Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory shanghai typhoon institute China Meteorological Administration

Based on the Regional Spectral Model(RSM) re-analysis data from Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) with a horizontal resolution of 20 km and a time interval of 6 h,this study works on the outer and inner core size of 2174 samples of tropical cyclones(TCs) occurring over the western North Pacific between 2001 and *** conclusions have been drawn on the basis of preliminary analysis of the TC inner core size and outer size and their relationship with TC ***,the outer size increase(decrease) helps TCs intensify(weaken).Second,the enlargement(shrinking) of the inner core size helps TCs intensify(weaken) if TCs have a large inner core(with radius of maximum winds larger than 120 km).Contrarily,when TCs have small inner core(with radius of maximum winds smaller than 120 km),the enlargement(shrinking) of the inner core is good for weakening(intensifying) of TCs.

关键词： tropical cyclone size inner core intensity

THE EFFECTS OF STATION NETWORK DENSITY ON STATISTICAL ANALYSES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PRECIPITATION

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2018年第4期24卷 421-432页

作者： LU Xiao-qin YU Hui YING Ming QI Liang-bo shanghai typhoon institute China Meteorological Administration shanghai Meteorological Center Shanghai Meteorological Bureau

In this paper, 1416 conventional ground-based meteorological observation stations on the mainland of china were subdivided into groups of differing spatial density. Data from each subgroup were then used to analyze variations in the tropical cyclone(TC) precipitation statistics derived from each subgroup across the mainland of china(excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao), as well as in two regions(east china and south china) and three provinces(Guangdong, Hainan, and Jiangxi) between 1981 and 2010. The results showed that for the mainland of china, total precipitation, mean annual precipitation, mean daily precipitation, and its spatial distribution were the same regardless of the spatial density of the stations. However, some minor differences were evident with respect to precipitation extremes and their spatial distribution. Overall, there were no significant variations in the TC precipitation statistics calculated from different station density schemes for the mainland of china. The regional and provincial results showed no significant differences in mean daily precipitation, but this was not the case for the maximum daily precipitation and torrential rain frequency. The maximum daily precipitation calculated from the lower-density station data was slightly less than that based on the higher-density station schemes, and this effect should be taken into consideration when interpreting regional climate statistics. The impact of station density on TC precipitation characteristics was more obvious for Hainan than for Guangdong or Jiangxi provinces. In addition, the effects were greater for south china(including Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region, Guangdong, and Hainan provinces) than east china(including Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, shanghai, Fujian, Anhui, and Jiangxi provinces). Furthermore, the analysis proved that the statistical climatic characteristics began to change significantly when the station spacing was between 40 and 50 km,which are close to the mean spa

关键词： station density tropical cyclone precipitation climatic characteristic

A simplified index to assess the combined impact of tropical cyclone precipitation and wind on china

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2019年第4期13卷 672-681页

作者： Peiyan CHEN Hui YU Ming XU Xiaotu LEI Feng ZENG shanghai typhoon institute China Meteotological AdministrationShanghai 200030China The Joint Laboratory for typhoon Forecasting Technique Applications between shanghai typhoon {3. and Wenzhou Meteorological Bureau Wenzhou 325000China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone China Meteotological AdministrationShanghai 200030China shanghai Meteorological Service Shanghai 200030China Wenzhou Meteorological Bureau Wenzhou 325000China

Relationships between tropical cyclone(TC)precipitation,wind,and storm damage are analyzed for china based on TCs over the period from 1984 to *** analysis shows that the maximum daily areal precipitation from stations with daily precipitation of ≥50 mm and the sum of wind gusts of ≥13.9 m/s can be used to estimate the main damage caused by TCs,and an index combining the precipitation and wind gust of a TC(IPWT)is defined to assess the severity of the combined impact of precipitation and *** correlation coefficient between IPWT and the damage index for affecting TCs is 0.80,which is higher than that for only precipitation or *** TCs with precipitation and wind affecting china are divided intofive categories,Category 0 to Category 4,based on IPWT,where higher categories refer to higher combined impacts of precipitation and *** combined impact category is closely related to damage category and it can be used to estimate the potential damage category in operational *** are 87.7%,72.9%,69.8%,and 73.4%of cases that have the same or one category difference between damage category and combined impact category for Categories 1,2,3.and 4,*** and its classification can be used to assess the severity of the TC impact and of combined precipitation and wind conveniently and accurately,and the potential damage caused by *** result will be a good supplementary data for TC intensity,precipitation,wind,and *** addition,IPWT can be used as an index to judge the reliability of damage *** analysis of the annual frequency of combined precipitation-wind impact categories reveals no significant increasing or decreasing trend in impact over china over the past 3. years.

关键词： tropical cyclone impact precipitation wind

New Evidences on the Climatic Causes of the Formation of the Spring Persistent Rains over Southeastern china

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2009年第6期26卷 1081-1087页

作者：万日金赵兵科吴国雄 shanghai typhoon institute China Meteorological Administration institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The spring persistent rains（SPR）over southeastern china（SEC）are a unique synoptic and climatic phenomenon in East Asia.A former study has found that the southwesterly flow which lies on the southeastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau（TP）is one of the deflected westerly flows of the TP,and it is suggested to be the direct climatic cause of *** study found that the southwesterly flow is also highly correlated with the sensible heating of the southeastern TP in interannual variability,in addition to having a high correlation in seasonal *** facts suggest that the thermal forcing of the TP is another important climatic cause of *** sensitivity experiments further prove that the mechanical and thermal forcings of the TP are the climatic causes of the formation of the *** the other hand,the Nanling Mountains and Wuyi Mountains（NWM）over southeastern china not only increase the SPR precipitation amount evidently,but also make the SPR rain belt move to the south by blocking the strong southwesterly flow.

关键词： spring persistent rains climatic causes southwesterly flow the Tibet Plateau sensitivity experiments

Ensemble data assimilation and prediction of typhoon and associated hazards using TEDAPS:evaluation for 2015-2018 seasons

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2019年第4期13卷 733-743页

作者： Hong LI Jingyao LUO Mengting XU shanghai typhoon institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclones China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China

The initial condition accuracy is a major concern for tropical cyclone(TC)numerical *** ensemble-based data assimilation techniques have shown great promise to initialize TC *** addition to initial condition uncertainty,representing model errors(*** deficiencies)is another important issue in an ensemble forecasting *** improve TC prediction from both deterministic and probabilistic standpoints,a typhoon Ensemble Data Assimilation and Prediction System(TEDAPS)using an ensemble-based data assimilation scheme and a multi-physics approach based on Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,has been developed in shanghai typhoon {3. and running realtime since *** of TED APS in the prediction of track,intensity and associated disaster has been evaluated for the Western North Pacific TCs in the years of 2015-2018,and compared against the NCEP *** APS produces markedly better intensity forecast by effectively reducing the weak biases and therefore the degree of underdispersion compared to *** errors of TED APS track forecasts are comparative with(slightly worse than)those of GEFS at longer(shorter)forecast *** ensemble-mean exhibits advantage over deterministic forecast in track forecasts at long lead times,whereas this superiority is limited to typhoon or weaker TCs in intensity forecasts due to systematical *** case-studies for three landfalling cyclones and one recurving cyclone demonstrate the capacities of TEDAPS in predicting some challenging TCs,as well as in capturing the forecast uncertainty and the potential threat from TC-associated hazards.

关键词： ensemble data assimilation ensemble forecasting tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Database Created by the china Meteorological administration

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第4期38卷 690-699页

作者： Xiaoqin LU Hui YU Ming YING Bingke ZHAO Shuai ZHANG Limin LIN Lina BAI Rijin WAN shanghai typhoon institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone/china Meteorological administration Shanghai 200030China

This paper describes the access to, and the content, characteristics, and potential applications of the tropical cyclone(TC) database that is maintained and actively developed by the china Meteorological administration, with the aim of facilitating its use in scientific research and operational services. This database records data relating to all TCs that have passed through the western North Pacific(WNP) and South china Sea(SCS) since 1949. TC data collection has expanded over recent decades via continuous TC monitoring using remote sensing and specialized field detection techniques,allowing collation of a multi-source TC database for the WNP and SCS that covers a long period, with wide coverage and many observational elements. This database now comprises a wide variety of information related to TCs, such as historical or real-time locations(i.e., best track and landfall), intensity, dynamic and thermal structures, wind strengths, precipitation amounts, and frequency. This database will support ongoing research into the processes and patterns associated with TC climatic activity and TC forecasting.

关键词： tropical cyclone multi-source database western North Pacific

Advances in Atmospheric Radiation:Theories,Models,and Their ***Ⅱ:Radiative Transfer Models and Related Applications

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 183-208页

作者： Hua ZHANG Feng ZHANG Lei LIU Yuzhi LIU Husi LETU Yuanjian YANG Zhengqiang LI Kun WU Shuai HU Ming LI Tie DAI Fei WANG Zhili WANG Yuxiang LING Yining SHI Chao LIU State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and institute of Climate System Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438 College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073 College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000 State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science Aerospace Information Research InstituteChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101 School of Atmospheric Physics Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081

The subject of“atmospheric radiation”includes not only fundamental theories on atmospheric gaseous absorption and the scattering and radiative transfer of particles(molecules,cloud,and aerosols),but also their applications in weather,climate,and atmospheric remote sensing,and is an essential part of the atmospheric *** review includes two parts(Part I and PartⅡ);following the first part on gaseous absorption and particle scattering,this part(PartⅡ)reports the progress that has been made in radiative transfer theories,models,and their common applications,focusing particularly on the contributions from Chinese *** recent achievements on radiative transfer models and methods developed for weather and climate studies and for atmospheric remote sensing are firstly ***,the associated applications,such as surface radiation estimation,satellite remote sensing algorithms,radiative parameterization for climate models,and radiative-forcing related climate change studies are summarized,which further reveals the importance of radiative transfer theories and models.

关键词： atmospheric radiation radiative transfer remote sensing radiative forcing climate change

Quantifying interagency differences in intensity estimations of Super typhoon Lekima (2019)

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2022年第1期16卷 5-16页

作者： Lina BAI Jie TANG Rong GUO Shuai ZHANG Kaiye LIU shanghai typhoon institute of {3. Meteorological administration Shanghai 200030China Shanwei Meteorological Observatory Shanwei 516600China

There were significant discrepancies in the intensity estimations of Super typhoon Lekima(2019)among the china Meteorological administration(CMA),the United States Joint typhoon Warning Center(JTWC),and the Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA)data sets,with a maximum difference of over 12 m/s and 16 m/s between the JTWC data set and the CMA and JMA data sets,*** the intensification phase,disagreement on the maximum sustained wind(MSW)between these agencies was due to the use of different conversion tables for the current intensity number(CI)estimated by Dvorak *** addition,CI discrepancies and different available observational data were also important contributors to the different intensities estimated during the Lekima’s decay phase before *** ability of various methods to minimize these discrepancies was evaluated in this *** the linear factor multiplication method and the remapping method using the same CI-MSW conversion table have substantially abilities to reduce intensity discrepancies,with the latter method being more ***,these improvements only hold for the intensification phase in the *** CMA data set had more complete and accurate intensity estimations when Lekima made landfall in *** its landfall,the intensity estimate of the CMA was comparable to that of the JMA,which differed greatly from that of the JTWC.

关键词： china. typhoon tables

Impacts of TRMM SRR assimilation on the numerical prediction of tropical cyclone

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2006年第5期25卷 14-26页

作者： MA Leiming QIN Zenghao DUAN Yihong LIANG Xudong WANG Dongliang Laboratory of typhoon Forecast Technique/china Meteorological administration Shanghai Typhoon Institute Shanghai200030 China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China

Impacts of the four-dimensional variation （4DVAR） assimilation of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM）/TMI surface rainfall rate （SRR） on the initialization and simulation of TC Danas in 2001 are studied. A number of sensitivity experiments are designed to evaluate the performance of assimilation during the particular stage when Danas developed from a tropical depression towards a typhoon, as well as an abrupt turning. Under the dynamic and thermodynamic constraints of meso-scale model and the 4DVAR, the TRMM SRR data are directly assimilated in high horizontal resolution （ 18 kin）. On the basis of the adjustment of initial model field, 4DVAR of TRMM SRR considerably improved the depiction of TC＇ s structure and rainfall. The same explanation can also be given to the enhancement of simulation on TC＇ s intensity and track. In comparison with the popular idea of twice steps of SRR assimilation, namely, 4DVAR pins 1DVAR, the retrieval error is expected to be avoided in the procedure of direct 4DVAR. In addition, the TRMM SRR 4DVAR within a high-resolution model can take into account as much information as observed and is expected to be performed in operational use if the observed rainfall data are routinely available.

关键词： TRMM TC Danas 4DVAR rainfall numerical simulation