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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 639-654页

作者： Ming YING Xiaoqin LU shanghai typhoon institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China

This paper investigates the homogeneity of United States aircraft reconnaissance data and the impact of these data on the homogeneity of the tropical cyclone(TC)best track data for the seasons 1949-1987 generated by the china Meteorological administration(CMA).The evaluation of the reconnaissance data shows that the minimum central sea level pressure(MCP)data are relatively homogeneous,whereas the maximum sustained wind(MSW)data show both overestimations and spurious abrupt *** comparisons suggest that both the reconnaissance MCP and MSW were well incorporated into the CMA TC best track *** no spurious abrupt changes were evident in the reconnaissance-related best track MCP data,two spurious changepoints were identified in the remainder of the best-track MCP ***,the influence of the reconnaissance MSWs seems to extend to the best track MSWs unrelated to reconnaissance,which might reflect the optimistic confidence in making higher estimates due to the overestimated extreme wind“observations”.In addition,the overestimation of either the reconnaissance MSWs or the best track MSWs was greater during the early decades compared to later decades,which reflects the important influence of reconnaissance data on the CMA TC best track *** wind-pressure relationship(WPR)used in the CMA TC best track dataset is also evaluated and is found to overestimate the MSW,which may lead to inhomogeneity within the dataset between the aircraft reconnaissance era and the satellite era.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity homogeneity best track aircraft reconnaissance

Dynamic synthetic analysis of circulation field of tropical cyclones affecting shanghai

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2024年第2期18卷 347-363页

作者： Wen GU Caijun YUE Zhihui HAN Yanqing GAO Yuqi TANG Xiangyu AO Yao YAO shanghai Ecological Forecasting&Remote Sensing Center Shanghai 200030China shanghai Marine Meteorological Centre Shanghai 200030China shanghai typhoon institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone(china Meteorological administration) Shanghai 200030China

Eleven tropical cyclones(TCs)affected shanghai and crossed the same latitude as shanghai from 2007 to *** to similar tracks from best-track data,TCs that cause significant precipitation in shanghai can be divided into three types:landfall TCs,nearshore northward TCs,and western *** on ERA5 reanalysis data,the dynamic synthesis method was used to synthesize TC circulation situations to compare thermal,dynamic,water vapor,and stability conditions within TC circulations during the period when they affected *** conclusions are as follows.1)When the three TC types are at the same latitude as shanghai,they are all in the divergent field in the upper *** the landfall type,the subtropical high at 500 hPa is stronger and farther north than usual,and there is a high-pressure dam on the north side of the TCs.2)The warm advection of the three TC types at 925 hPa is located in the northern quadrant of the *** dynamic and water vapor conditions are good in the north-western quadrant of landfall and western TCs,and more favorable in the eastern quadrant of nearshore northward TCs.3.The favorable effects of all three types on precipitation in shanghai come from the boundary *** vapor,upward motion,and instability conditions of landfall TCs are superior to the other two TC *** best water vapor,dynamic,and convective instability conditions are at the northern boundary in shanghai during landfall TCs,and the main sources of water vapor in shanghai come from the eastern and northern *** nearshore northward TCs,the main contribution to precipitation is from the eastern boundary,while better dynamic and water vapor conditions come from the western and northern boundaries during western *** above findings provide scientific and technical support for operational forecasting precipitation from TCs affecting mega-cities.

关键词： tropical cyclones dynamic synthetic analysis ERA5 reanalysis shanghai similar track

The weakening effect of urbanization on tropical cyclone surface winds:An observational study for shanghai

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2024年第1期13卷 15-23页

作者： Lechuan Zhang Hui Yu Xiangyu Ao Shengming Tang Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences BeijingChina shanghai typhoon institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina

The observation-reanalysis difference method(OMR)and wind proﬁleﬁtting method were used to analyze the inﬂuence urbanization has on the near-surface wind speed in shanghai during tropical cyclone *** data used include daily wind speed data from the shanghai Meteorological Observatory Station collected from 1991 to 2020,hourly wind speed data from 100 m high wind towers from 2017 to 2019,and reanalysis data that covered the same *** results indicated that during tropical cyclone occurrence,the wind speed of the OMR in the central urban region was signiﬁcantly lower than that in the suburban area,and the OMR declined more obviously over the year,down to-8 m/s in *** leads to the increase of average wind weakening rate to be higher than the maximum wind weakening rate,causing the maximum weakening rate of the central urban region to the average wind over 80%,while maximum wind speed was less than 80%.The weakening rate of both the average and maximum wind speeds during tropical cyclone impacts is greater than the rate that the annual average wind speed was reduced.A logarithmic variation was visible in the wind proﬁle of the island station during tropical cyclone occurrence,with an average friction velocity U*of 0.93.9 m/s and an average rough length Z0 of 0.4915 *** wind speed during tropical cyclone events was higher than the three-year average wind speed within each *** suburban stations show a linear variation,and every hundred meters of height results in an increase of 5–6 m/s in the wind speed change *** 100 m of altitude,the wind speed in the suburban region is reduced by approximately 40%.

关键词： Urbanization Tropical cyclone shanghai Wind speed

Tropical cyclone activities in the Western North Pacific in 2022

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2024年第2期13卷 125-135页

作者： Xin Huang Lina Bai Zifeng Yu Johnny C.L.Chan Hui Yu Jie Tang Rong Guo Rijin Wan shanghai typhoon institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina Asia-Pacific typhoon Collaborative Research Center ShanghaiChina School of Energy and Environment City University of Hong KongHong KongChina

Based on the best-track dataset from the shanghai typhoon institute/{3. Meteorological administration,the paper provides a compre-hensive summary and analysis of tropical cyclone(TC)activities in the Western North Paciﬁc(WNP)and the South {3. Sea(SCS)for *** the historical climatology from 1951 to 2020,the anomalous conditions during 2022 in TC frequency,origin locations,tracks,intensity,and duration for the entire ocean basin as well as landfall events in {3. are *** show that the overall TC frequency is slightly lower than normal,but the multiple TC events have a very high frequency of *** locations of TCs,which mark the starting points of their paths,show a large westward and northward deviation from *** 40%of the named TCs exhibit a shift in their direction of movement from westerly to ***,comparisons of the means,medians,upper and lower quartiles all indicate that the intensity of TCs in 2022 is generally lower than the climatology,with the duration of TCs at tropical storm intensity or above being shorter than usual.A notable observation is the fewer incidence of TC landfalls in {3.,but with a geographical concentration in Guangdong *** anomalous annual TC activities are inﬂuenced by related atmospheric and oceanic environmental conditions modulated by multi-scale climate ***ﬁndings provide useful information for enhancing disaster mitigation strategies in the Asia-Paciﬁc region.

关键词： Tropical cyclone Western North Pacific Anomalous characteristics Annual report

Roles of Upper-Level Descending Inflow in Moat Development in Simulated Tropical Cyclones with Secondary Eyewall Formation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1100-1114页

作者： Nannan QIN Liguang WU Nanjing Joint institute for Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing 210041China shanghai typhoon institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Innovation Center of Ocean and Atmosphere System Zhuhai Fudan Innovation Research InstituteZhuhai 518057China

This study investigated the effects of upper-level descending inflow(ULDI)associated with inner-eyewall convection on the formation of the moat in tropical cyclones(TCs)with secondary eyewall formation(SEF).In our numerical experiments,a clear moat with SEF occurred in TCs with a significant ULDI,while no SEF occurred in TCs without a significant *** eyewall convection developed more vigorously in the control run.A ULDI occurred outside the inner-eyewall convection,where it was symmetrically *** ULDI was initially triggered by the diabatic warming released by the inner eyewall and later enhanced by the cooling below the anvil *** ULDI penetrated the outer edge of the inner eyewall with relatively dry air and prevented excessive solid-phase hydrometeors from being advected further *** produced extensive sublimation cooling of falling hydrometeors between the eyewall and the outer *** sublimation cooling resulted in negative buoyancy and further induced strong subsidence between the eyewall and the outer *** a result,a clear moat was *** of the moat in the ongoing SEF prevented the outer rainband from moving farther inward,helping the outer rainband to symmetrize into an outer *** the sensitivity experiment,no significant ULDI formed since the eyewall convection was weaker,and the eyewall anvil developed relatively lower,meaning the formation of a moat and thus an outer eyewall was less *** study suggests that a better-represented simulation of inner-eyewall convective structures and distribution of the solid-phase hydrometeors is important to the prediction of SEF.

关键词： tropical cyclone secondary eyewall formation upper-level descending inflow eyewall convection

Multiscale interaction analysis of Landfall typhoon Lekima(2019)based on vorticity equation diagnosis

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2024年第2期13卷 136-146页

作者： Wenbo Xue Hui Yu Shengming Tang Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences BeijingChina University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina shanghai typhoon institute of {3. Meteorological administration ShanghaiChina

To investigate the multiscale interaction characteristics of Landfall typhoon Lekima(2019),this study analyzed the characteristics of the different scale vortex structure and interactions among different scales based on vorticity equation *** analysis is based on the simulation results of the WRF model which has been thoroughly veriﬁ*** main results are as follows:the original vorticity dominated by the meso-αscale vorticity increases with height and then decreases,with maximum vorticity distributed at 900 *** meso-βscale vorticity varies signiﬁcantly with altitude,while the meso-γscale vorticityﬁeld exhibits obvious positive vorticity below 850 *** meso-αscale vorticity tendency primarily maintains negative,contributing signiﬁcantly to the overall reduction in the original vorticityﬁeld over *** increase in mid-to-upper-level(above 550 hPa)original vorticity is mainly related to the variations in the meso-βand meso-γscale vorticityﬁ*** original vorticity dominated by the meso-αscale vorticity increases with height and then decreases,and the whole layer vorticity decreases over *** meso-βscale vorticity varies signiﬁcantly with altitude and time,while the meso-γscale vorticityﬁeld consistently exhibits signiﬁcant positive vorticity below 850 *** vorticity equation diagnosis revealed that the primary source terms of the vorticity tendencies are the twisting and stretching terms,and the main sink terms being horizontal and vertical vorticity transport terms below 900 *** source terms and sink terms exchange above 850 *** separation results show that the primary contributions of all impact factors originate from the meso-αand meso-γscaleﬁelds(accounting for over 80%of the total),with the contribution of the meso-αscale being less than that of the meso-γscale and a notable contribution over 3..5%of the interactions between different scales.

关键词： Tropical cyclone Multiscale interaction Vorticity equation diagnosis

Recent advances in landfalling tropical cyclone asymmetric rainfall mechanism and forecast verification over china

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2024年第1期13卷 33-40页

作者： Zifeng Yu Peiyan Chen Fumin Ren Lichun Tang Weiwei Wang Hui Yu Kun Zhao shanghai typhoon institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina Asia-Pacific typhoon Collaborative Research Center ShanghaiChina Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences BeijingChina Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology NanjingChina Nanjing University NanjingChina

Held every four years,the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone(IWTC)organized by the World Meteorological Organization has been a global leading conference in theﬁeld of tropical *** preparation for the 10th IWTC(IWTC-10)in December 2022,a summary of research advances of landfalling tropical cyclone(LTC)rainfall during past four years of 2019–2022 has been *** of the latest research advances has been summarized in Lamers et al.(2023.,which reviewed the latest forecast and disaster prevention methods related to TC *** a supplement,this article mainly focuses on the recent advances in LTC asymmetric rainfall evolution mechanisms and forecast veriﬁcation results over *** newﬁndings have been made in the LTC inner-core size relationship with the asymmetric rainfall *** major advances focused on asymmetric microphysical characteristics in the TC *** simulation and forecast per-formances of LTC precipitation have been analyzed,and different forecast error sources for rainfall during different landfall stages of TC were *** estimate the risk of TC rainfall hazards in china,a parameterized Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Model was reviewed as well in this article.

关键词： Tropical cyclone Landfall Rainfall Precipitation forecast veriﬁcation

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Heavy Precipitation Forecasts from ECMWF in Eastern china

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 29-41页

作者：徐同谭燕顾问 shanghai typhoon institute and Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone of China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030 China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100080 China shanghai Ecological Forecasting and Remote Sensing Center Shanghai 200030 China

This study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation forecasts in eastern china from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) using the time-domain version of the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation(MODE-TD). A total of 23.heavy rainfall cases occurring between 2018 and 2021 are selected for analysis. Using typhoon “Rumbia” as a case study, the paper illustrates how the MODE-TD method assesses the overall simulation capability of models for the life history of precipitation systems. The results of multiple tests with different parameter configurations reveal that the model underestimates the number of objects’ forecasted precipitation tracks, particularly at smaller radii. Additionally, the analysis based on centroid offset and area ratio tests for different classified precipitation objects indicates that the model performs better in predicting large-area, fast-moving, and longlifespan precipitation objects. Conversely, it tends to have less accurate predictions for small-area, slow-moving, and shortlifespan precipitation objects. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model overestimates the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model tends to overestimate the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. Overall, the model provides more accurate predictions for the duration and dissipation of precipitation objects with large-area or long-lifespan(such as typhoon precipitation) while having large prediction errors for precipitation objects with small-area or short-lifespan. Furthermore, the model’s simulation results regarding the generation of precipitation objects show that it performs relati

关键词： MODE-TD ECMWF heavy precipitation Eastern china

Relationships between Terrain Features and Forecasting Errors of Surface Wind Speeds in a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1161-1170页

作者： Wenbo XUE Hui YU Shengming TANG Wei HUANG Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 101408China shanghai typhoon institute/CMA Shanghai 200030China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone/CMA Shanghai 200030China

Numerical weather prediction(NWP)models have always presented large forecasting errors of surface wind speeds over regions with complex *** this study,surface wind forecasts from an operational NWP model,the SMS-WARR(shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System),are analyzed to quantitatively reveal the relationships between the forecasted surface wind speed errors and terrain features,with the intent of providing clues to better apply the NWP model to complex terrain *** terrain features are described by three parameters:the standard deviation of the model grid-scale orography,terrain height error of the model,and slope *** results show that the forecast bias has a unimodal distribution with a change in the standard deviation of *** minimum ME(the mean value of bias)is 1.2 m s^(-1) when the standard deviation is between 60 and 70 m.A positive correlation exists between bias and terrain height error,with the ME increasing by 10%−3.%for every 200 m increase in terrain height *** ME decreases by 65.6%when slope angle increases from(0.5°−1.5°)to larger than 3.5°for uphill winds but increases by 3..4%when the absolute value of slope angle increases from(0.5°−1.5°)to(2.5°−3.5°)for downhill *** sensitivity experiments are carried out with a model output statistical(MOS)calibration model for surface wind speeds and ME(RMSE)has been reduced by 90%(3.%)by introducing terrain parameters,demonstrating the value of this study.

关键词： surface wind speed terrain features error analysis MOS calibration model

Direct assimilation of simulated radar reflectivity for typhoon In-fa using EnKF:Issue with state variables updating

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2024年第1期13卷 24-32页

作者： Ziyue Wang Jingyao Luo Hong Li Yijie Zhu State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMAChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijingChina shanghai typhoon institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclones China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China

Using a convective scale WRF-GSI system and a reﬂectivity observation operator based on the double-moment microphysics(Thompson)scheme,simulated radar reﬂectivity data are produced and then directly assimilated with EnKF through Observing System Simulation Experi-ments(OSSEs)for the case of typhoon In-Fa(2021).We examined the ability of the EnKF to simultaneously estimate state variables and conducted sensitivity tests to evaluate the impact of updating different state *** results show that updating a full set of analysis variables can help obtain highly precise initialﬁelds in the model and improve typhoon forecast *** the horizontal wind update will affect the adjustment of the temperatureﬁeld and the sea level pressureﬁeld during the cyclic assimilation *** the variables directly related to the reﬂectivity operator alone could adjust hydrometers well,but the positive impact arising from the assimilation quickly vanishes during the *** addition,this study also includes a quantitative RMSE analysis for each variable during the assimilation cycle and compares the effect of each schemes on different variables.

关键词： Radar reﬂectivity data EnKF Direct assimilation State variables