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Changes in extreme high temperature warning indicators over China under different global warming levels

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第6期67卷 1895-1909页

作者： Yuxia ZHANG Ying SUN Ting HU Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China National climate Center Laboratory for Climate StudiesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

High temperature warning indicators play a pivotal role in meteorological departments,serving as crucial criteria for issuing warnings that guide both social production and daily *** their importance,limited studies have explored the relationship between different global warming levels and changes in high temperature warning *** this study,we analyze data from 2,41. meteorological stations over China and utilize the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models to examine historical changes in high temperature warning indicators used by the China Meteorological *** evaluate model performance and estimate future changes in these indicators using an annual cycle bias correction *** results indicate that since 1.61.the number of high temperature days(TX35d and TX40d)and length of season(TX40d and TX40l)with daily maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 35℃ and 40℃ have increased over *** intensity of high temperatures(TXx)has strengthened and the geographical extent affected by high temperatures has *** 2022,the occurrence of 40℃ high temperatures surges,with Eastern China experiencing a two-day increase in TX40d and an extended seasonal length in TX40l by over five *** CMIP6 models have underestimated the high temperature indictors associated with 35℃ during historical periods,notable difference is not observed between the models and observations for TX40d and TX40l,given their rare ***,future projections,after bias correction,indicate that the increasing trends for 35℃ and 40℃ high temperature days and length of season become more pronounced than the raw projection,suggesting a more severe increase than that anticipated *** global warming intensifies,the high temperature days and length of season are projected to increase non-linearly,while the intensity of high temperatures is expected to increase *** every 1. increase in global temperature,the intensity is

关键词： Extreme high temperatures Meteorological warning CMIP6 Global warming levels Future projection

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The super-cycle of the global land-monsoon system

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National Science Review 2024年第05期11卷 107-109页

作者： Yongyun Hu laboratory for {1. and Ocean-Atmosphere studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University

The modern monsoon system consists of six regional monsoons [1.. These regional monsoons demonstrate coherently annual variations of precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns, although they have different characteristics. Therefore, these regional monsoons are unified in the context of the global monsoon [1.2], which reflects the dominant mode of coherent annual variations of precipitation and atmospheric circulations in the tropics and subtropics.

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Quantitative estimation of global mean precipitation throughout the Phanerozoic era

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1616-1624页

作者： Xiujuan BAO Yongyun HU laboratory for {1. and Ocean-Atmospheric studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China

Quantitatively estimating the global mean precipitation(GMP)throughout Earth's history is crucial for enhancing our understanding of long-term climate evolution and the hydrological ***,currently there is no established methodology for estimating global mean ***,we present the first study that estimates GMP in the Phanerozoic *** relationship between GMP and global mean surface temperature(GMST)is investigated by analyzing data from 23 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6).The result reveals consistent and significant impact of temperature on precipitation,with a sensitivity range of 2–3%K^(-1..Additionally,we propose a method for accessing latitudinal variations in precipitation caused by land area distributions and paleo-Koppen climatic *** climatic belts are determined based on geological indicators such as coals,evaporites,and glacial *** GMP is thus quantitatively estimated by combining variations in GMST,land area distributions,and paleo-koppen climatic belts,spanning from 540 Ma to the present *** quantitative GMP curve demonstrates fluctuations in GMP about 500 mm yr^(-1.,with values ranging from 948 to1.42 mm yr-1.ver the Phanerozoic *** curve aligns closely with findings derived from numerical *** presented paleoprecipitation variations facilitate a more comprehensive understanding of the interconnected geological and paleoclimatic developments.

关键词： Paleoprecipitation Paleoclimate K?ppen climatic belts Global mean precipitation Hydrological cycle

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Tropical cyclone genesis over the western north Pacific in La Ni?a decay summers: Comparison between 201. and 2021

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第10期67卷 3098-3109页

作者： Yunyun LIU Zhensong GONG China Meteorological Administration Key laboratory for {1. Prediction studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

As the primary interannual signal of variability in the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation has a considerable impact on tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP). Both 201. and2021.were La Ni?a decay years, but TC activity over the WNP during the two summers(June–August) showed notable differences. In 201., summer TC activity was unusually high with a total of 1. TCs, and the region of TC genesis was mainly in the central and eastern WNP. In contrast, only 9 TCs were generated in summer 2021. and the region of TC genesis was primarily in the western WNP. By comparing the characteristics of the large-scale environmental conditions over the regions of TC genesis, the thermal factors of the tropical oceans, and the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO), this study revealed the possible causes for the marked differences in TC genesis over the WNP during the two summers, which both had a similar background of La Ni?a decay. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM) transitioned of a cold anomaly in the winter of 201./201.and persisted until summer 201.. At the same time, the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM) maintained a positive phase, leading to eastward and northward displacement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in summer, and eastward extension of the tropical monsoon trough, which presented conditions conducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Moreover, the days when the MJO stagnated in phases 5 and 6 in the summer of 201. increased by approximately 1.0% relative to climatological state,providing dynamic conditions favorable for TC formation. In 2021. the IOBM quickly turned to a warm anomaly in March and persisted until summer, whereas the PMM became a negative phase in January and remained so until summer. At the same time,the MJO stagnated in phases 2 and 3 for up to 47 days, with the center of convection located over the western Maritime Continent, producing conditions unconducive to TC ge

关键词： Tropical cyclone La Nina events Indian Ocean Basin Mode Pacific Meridional Mode Madden-Julian Oscillation Western Pacific Subtropical High Monsoon trough

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Winter extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第4期15卷 42-51页

作者： Qing-Quan LI Miao BI Song YANG Qing-Yuan WU Yi-Hui DING Xin-Yong SHEN Xiao-Ting SUN Meng-Chu ZHAO China Meteorological Administration Key laboratory for {1. Prediction studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China CMA Key Open laboratory of Transforming {1. Resources to Economy Chongqing Institute of Meteorological SciencesChongqing 401147China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key laboratory for {1. Change and Natural Disaster studies Sun Yat-sen University Zhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)and the Arctic are the most sensitive regions to global climate ***,the interdecadal varibility of winter extreme precipitation over the TP and its linkage with Arctic sea ice are still *** this study,the characteristics and mechisnems of the TP extreme precipitation(TPEP)influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale are studied based on the daily precipitation,monthly sea ice concentration and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1.80 to *** found that the dominant mode of the TPEP in winter mostly exhibits a uniform spatial variation on the interdecadal timescale,with an opposite weak variation in the southeastern TP,and the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)before 2002 are larger than that after *** interdecadal variation of TPEP is affected by two teleconnection wave trains regulated by the Barents and Kara Sea *** the light ice years,a remarkable positive geopotential height(HGT)anomaly appears over the Barents-Kara Sea and a remarkable negative HGT anomaly is located over the Lake *** wave trains originating over the Barents-Kara Sea can be *** southern branch forms a wave train through the North Atlantic along the subtropical westerly jet stream,showing a‘+-+-+'pattern of HGT anomalies from Arctic to the *** HGT anomaly controls the western TP,which creates dynamic and water vapor conditions for the *** northern branch forms a wave train through the Lake Baikal and the southeast of the TP,showing a‘+-+'HGT anomaly *** HGT anomaly controls the southeastern TP,which is not conducive to precipitation in the *** the SIC in the Barents-Kara Sea increases,the situation is *** above analysis also reveals the reason for the difference in the east-west distribution of the TPEP.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Tibetan Plateau Winter extreme precipitation Rossby wave activity Interdecadal variation

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A Tri-mode of Mock-Walker Cells

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 671-679页

作者： Han QIN Ji NIE Zhiyong MENG laboratory for {1. and Ocean-Atmosphere studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key laboratory Foshan 528061China

This work uses cloud-resolving simulations to study mock-Walker cells driven by a specified sea surface temperature(SST).The associated precipitation in the mock-Walker cells exhibits three different modes,including a single peak of precipitation over the SST maximum(mode 1.,symmetric double peaks of precipitation straddling the SST maximum(mode 2),and a single peak of precipitation on one side of the SST maximum(mode 3).The three modes are caused by three distinct convective activity center migration *** indicate that the virtual effect of water vapor plays an important role in differentiating the three *** the SST gradient is large,the virtual effect may be strong enough to overcome the temperature effect,generating a low-level low-pressure anomaly below the ascending branch of the Walker cell off the *** results here highlight the importance of the virtual effect of water vapor and its interaction with convection and large-scale circulation in the Walker circulation.

关键词： Walker circulation cloud-resolving simulation virtual effect

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Evaluation and Projection of Extreme High Temperature Indices in Southwestern China Using NEX-GDDP-CMIP6

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 88-107页

作者： Fen ZHANG Linxiao WEI Yonghua LI Hongyu TANG Tianyu ZHANG Baogang YANG China Meteorological Administration Key Open laboratory of Transforming {1. Resource to Economy Chongqing Climate CentreChongqing 401147

Based on the recently released NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP)Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) dataset and the gridded observational daily dataset CN05.1. this study evaluates the performance of 26 CMIP6 models in simulating extreme high temperature(EHT) indices in southwestern China and estimates future changes in the EHT indices under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs) SSP1.2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 using 1. optimal CMIP6 models. Five EHT indices are employed:annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature(TXX), high temperature days(T35), warm days(TX90P),heat wave frequency(HWF), and heat wave days(HWD). The main results are as follows.(1. NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 is highly capable of simulating the spatial patterns of TXX and T35 in southwestern China but it presents a weaker ability to simulate the spatial patterns of TX90P, HWF, and HWD.(2) The simulated time series of T35, TX90P, HWF,and HWD in southwestern China exhibit consistent upward trends with the observations. The linear trends of increase in TX90P and HWD are much greater than those of increase in TXX, T35, and HWF.(3) The estimated increases in TXX and T35 in southwestern China are significantly greater in Chongqing and the adjacent areas of Sichuan than in the other regions. Spatial distributions of the increases in TX90P, HWF, and HWD generally show higher values in the west and lower values in the east.(4) In the three different scenarios, the projected future TXX,T35, TX90P, and HWD in southwestern China all display a continuous increase with time and radiative forcing levels, whereas HWF initially increases but then decreases under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. By the end of the 21.t century, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, TXX and T35 are projected to increase by 6.0℃ and 45.0 days, respectively. The duration of individual heat waves is also expected to increase.

关键词： NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 extreme high temperature(EHT) southwestern China evaluation projection

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Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast China Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model Forecasts for 2006-2021

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 453-468页

作者： Yiqiu YU Jie WU Yihe FANG Chunyu ZHAO Zongjian KE Yitong LIN Liaoning Provincial climate Centre Liaoning Provincial Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Key Opening laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Panjin National climate Observatory Panjin124000China China Meteorological Administration Key laboratory for {1. Prediction studies National Climate CentreChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Jilin Provincial climate Centre Jilin Provincial Meteorological AdministrationChangchun130062China

As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia,the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)substantially influences weather and climate in this *** far,systematic assessment on the performance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried *** on the Beijing climate Centre(BCC)and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal *** results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the seasonal variations in the intensity,active days,and spatial distribution of NCCVs;however,the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the *** analysis shows that the differences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S ***,in the deterministic forecasts,BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4-5(5-6)pentads,and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1.2 pentads longer than that of individual *** the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities,BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 1. days,respectively;both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events,with better performance in winter than in *** results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) predictability sub-seasonal to seasonal(S2S)prediction deterministic forecast probabilistic forecast

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Spatial continuous modeling of early Cenozoic carbon cycle and climate

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National Science Review 2024年第4期11卷 30-32页

作者： Yonggang Liu Jian Zhang Haoyue Zuo Zhilin He Jiaqi Guo Qifan Lin Haonan Yu Jiawenjing Lan Jing Han Zhihong Song Zihan Yin Liang Zhao Yongyun Hu Zhengtang Guo laboratory for {1. and Ocean-Atmosphere studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University Key laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of Sciences State Key laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The partial pressure of atmospheric CO2（pCO2） is determined by the carbon cycle that involves climate, biogeochemistry, and plate tectonics. In this cycle,atmospheric CO2is converted into organic carbon and carbonates by biological activities and silicate weathering, and buried as sediments. The sediments on the ocean floor are subducted into the Earth’s interior, and subsequently converted back into CO2and outgassed into the atmosphere.

关键词： ATMOSPHERIC CO2

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The Unprecedented Extreme Anticyclonic Anomaly over Northeast Asia in July 2021.and Its Climatic Impacts

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 608-618页

作者： Xingyan ZHOU Riyu LU laboratory for {1. studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

This study investigates the evolution of an extreme anomalous anticyclone(AA)event over Northeast Asia,which was one of the dominant circulation systems responsible for the catastrophic extreme precipitation event in July 2021.in Henan,and further explores the significant impact of this AA on surface temperatures beneath *** results indicate that this AA event over Northeast Asia was unprecedented in terms of intensity and *** AA was very persistent and extremely strong for 1. consecutive days from 1. to 22 July *** long-lived and unprecedented AA led to the persistence of warmer surface temperatures beyond the temporal span of the pronounced 500-hPa anticyclonic signature as the surface air temperatures over land in Northeast Asia remained extremely warm through 29 July ***,the sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Japan/East Sea were extremely high for 30 consecutive days from 1. July to 1. August 2021.persisting well after the weakening or departure of this *** results emphasize the extreme nature of this AA over Northeast Asia in July 2021.and its role in multiple extreme climate events,even over remote ***,possible reasons for this long-lasting AA are explored,and it is suggested to be a byproduct of a teleconnection pattern over extratropical Eurasia during the first half of its life cycle,and of the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern during the latter half.

关键词： anomalous anticyclone Northeast Asia surface air temperatures sea surface temperatures

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