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Uncertainties of ENSO-related Regional Hadley Circulation Anomalies within Eight Reanalysis Datasets

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第1期41卷 115-140页

作者： Yadi LI Xichen LI Juan FENG Yi ZHOU Wenzhu WANG Yurong HOU international {1. for climate and environment sciences(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 101408China College of Global Change and Earth System Science(GCESS) Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),the leading mode of global interannual variability,usually intensifies the Hadley Circulation(HC),and meanwhile constrains its meridional extension,leading to an equatorward movement of the jet *** studies have investigated the response of HC to ENSO events using different reanalysis datasets and evaluated their capability in capturing the main features of ENSO-associated HC ***,these studies mainly focused on the global HC,represented by a zonal-mean mass stream function(MSF).Comparatively fewer studies have evaluated HC responses from a regional perspective,partly due to the prerequisite of the Stokes MSF,which prevents us from integrating a regional *** this study,we adopt a recently developed technique to construct the three-dimensional structure of HC and evaluate the capability of eight state-of-the-art reanalyses in reproducing the regional HC response to ENSO *** show that all eight reanalyses reproduce the spatial structure of HC responses well,with an intensified HC around the central-eastern Pacific but weakened circulations around the Indo-Pacific warm pool and tropical *** spatial correlation coefficient of the three-dimensional HC anomalies among the different datasets is always larger than ***,these datasets may not capture the amplitudes of the HC responses *** uncertainty is especially large for ENSO-associated equatorially asymmetric HC anomalies,with the maximum amplitude in climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR)being about 2.7 times the minimum value in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis(20CR).One should be careful when using reanalysis data to evaluate the intensity of ENSO-associated HC anomalies.

关键词： regional Hadley circulation ENSO atmosphere-ocean interaction reanalysis data

Parameterization of height-diameter and crown radius-diameter relationships across the globe

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Journal of Plant Ecology 2024年第2期17卷 36-48页

作者： Xiang Song Jinxu Li Xiaodong Zeng international {1. for climate and environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China School of Mathematics and Statistics North China University of Water Resources and Electric PowerZhengzhou 450046China College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

The tree height-diameter at breast height(H-DBH)and crown radius-DBH(CR-DBH)relationships are key for forest carbon/biomass estimation,parameterization in vegetation models and vegetation-atmosphere *** the H-DBH relationship has been widely investigated on site or regional scales,and a few of studies have involved CR-DBH relationships based on plot-level data,few studies have quantitatively verifed the universality of these two relationships on a global *** study evaluated the ability of 29 functions to ft the H-DBH and CR-DBH relationships for six different plant functional types(PFTs)on a global scale,based on a global plant trait *** showed that most functions were able to capture the H-DBH relationship for tropical PFTs and boreal needleleaf trees relatively accurately,but slightly less for temperate PFTs and boreal broadleaf trees(BB).For boreal PFTs,the S-shaped Logistic function ftted the H-DBH relationship best,while for temperate PFTs the Chapman-Richards function performed *** tropical needleleaf trees,the fractional function of DBH satisfactorily captured the H-DBH relationship,while for tropical broadleaf trees,the Weibull function and a composite function of fractions were the best *** CR-DBH,the ftting capabilities of all the functions were comparable for all PFTs except *** Logistic function performed best for two boreal PFTs and temperate broadleaf trees,but for temperate needleleaf trees and two tropical PFTs,some exponential functions demonstrated higher *** work provides valuable information for parameterization improvements in vegetation models and forest feld investigations.

关键词： tree height diameter at breast height crown radius ftting function parameterization vegetation model

El Niño and the AMO Sparked the Astonishingly Large Margin of Warming in the Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2023

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1017-1022页

作者： Kexin LI Fei ZHENG Jiang ZHU Qing-Cun ZENG international {1. for climate and environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China

In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since *** 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human *** analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded *** on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41.±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 201. as the warmest year since 1.50,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming *** to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niñ***,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST *** a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.1.℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.

关键词： record-breaking temperature global mean surface temperature El Niño AMO global warming

Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin WANG Kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG Fangxing FAN Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao ZHU Tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU international {1. for climate and environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu international Research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China center for Monsoon System Research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional climate-{1. for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter {1. in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

Severe Global environmental Issues Caused by Canada’s Record-Breaking Wildfires in 2023

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第4期41卷 565-571页

作者： Zhe WANG Zifa WANG Zhiyin ZOU Xueshun CHEN Huangjian WU Wending WANG Hang SU Fang LI Wenru XU Zhihua LIU Jiaojun ZHU State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China international {1. for climate and environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Institute of Applied Ecology Chinese Academy of SciencesShenyang 110016China

Due to the record-breaking wildfires that occurred in Canada in 2023,unprecedented quantities of air pollutants and greenhouse gases were released into the *** wildfires had emitted more than 1.3 Pg CO_(2)and 0.1. Pg CO_(2)equivalent of other greenhouse gases(GHG)including CH4 and N_(2)O as of 31.*** wildfire-related GHG emissions constituted more than doubled Canada’s planned cumulative anthropogenic emissions reductions in 1. years,which represents a significant challenge to climate mitigation *** model simulations showed that the Canadian wildfires impacted not only the local air quality but also that of most areas in the northern hemisphere due to long-range transport,causing severe PM_(2.5)pollution in the northeastern United States and increasing daily mean PM_(2.5)concentration in northwestern China by up to 2μg *** observed maximum daily mean PM_(2.5)concentration in New York City reached 1.8.3μg m-3,which was their worst air quality in more than 50 years,nearly 1. times that of the air quality guideline(i.e.,1.μg m-3)issued by the World Health Organization(WHO).Aside from the direct emissions from forest fires,the peat fires beneath the surface might smolder for several months or even longer and release substantial amounts of CO_(2).The substantial amounts of greenhouse gases from forest and peat fires might contribute to the positive feedback to the climate,potentially accelerating global *** better understand the comprehensive environmental effects of wildfires and their interactions with the climate system,more detailed research based on advanced observations and Earth System Models is essential.

关键词： Canada forest fire greenhouse gases PM_(2.5) transboundary air pollution

Record-breaking summer-autumn drought in southern China in 2022:Roles of tropical sea surface temperature and Eurasian warming

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Science China Earth sciences 2024年第2期67卷 420-431页

作者： Yuepeng HU Botao ZHOU Huijun WANG Dapeng ZHANG Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China School of Atmospheric sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China

From summer to autumn in 2022,a severe drought lasted in southern China,posing serious effects on economic growth and ecological *** study explored the atmospheric circulations accounting for this persistent drought *** shows that the drought in southern China during the summer of 2022 was strongly linked to the divergence of water vapor flux and descending motions,which were respectively caused by the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward movement of the East Asian subtropical jet(EASJ).Differently,the atmospheric background responsible for the sustained drought in autumn is manly featured by a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea,which led to decreased moisture and descending motions in southern *** investigation suggests that the rarely strong surface warming over northern Eurasia and the extreme La Nina-like pattern over the tropical Pacific jointly resulted in the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward shift of the EASJ in the summer of 2022,while the cyclonic circulation anomaly prevailing over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea in autumn was largely attributed to the extremely negative anomalies of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature.

关键词： Summer-autumn drought Southern China Tropical sea surface temperature Eurasian warming

Assessment of Crop Yield in China Simulated by Thirteen Global Gridded Crop Models

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第3期41卷 420-434页

作者： Dezhen YIN Fang LI Yaqiong LU Xiaodong ZENG Zhongda LIN Yanqing ZHOU international {1. for climate and environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China Institute of Mountain Hazards and environment Chinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610041China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China

Global gridded crop models(GGCMs) have been broadly applied to assess the impacts of climate and {1.al change and adaptation on agricultural production. China is a major grain producing country, but thus far only a few studies have assessed the performance of GGCMs in China, and these studies mainly focused on the average and interannual variability of national and regional yields. Here, a systematic national-and provincial-scale evaluation of the simulations by1. GGCMs [1. from the GGCM Intercomparison(GGCMI) project, phase 1. and CLM5-crop] of the yields of four crops(wheat, maize, rice, and soybean) in China during 1.80–2009 was carried out through comparison with crop yield statistics collected from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Results showed that GGCMI models generally underestimate the national yield of rice but overestimate it for the other three crops, while CLM5-crop can reproduce the national yields of wheat, maize, and rice well. Most GGCMs struggle to simulate the spatial patterns of crop yields. In terms of temporal variability, GGCMI models generally fail to capture the observed significant increases, but some can skillfully simulate the interannual variability. Conversely, CLM5-crop can represent the increases in wheat, maize, and rice, but works less well in simulating the interannual variability. At least one model can skillfully reproduce the temporal variability of yields in the top-1. producing provinces in China, albeit with a few exceptions. This study, for the first time, provides a complete picture of GGCM performance in China, which is important for GGCM development and understanding the reliability and uncertainty of national-and provincial-scale crop yield prediction in China.

关键词： global gridded crop model historical crop yield China multi-model evaluation

Persistent greening against drying in northeast Asian semiarid grasslands:Asymmetrical responses of direct and legacy effects to intensified drought

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 9-20页

作者： Yu-Tong MA Hai-Shan CHEN Yao-Ming SONG Bo-Tao ZHOU Shan-Lei SUN Xin-Guan DU Yue SUN Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint international Research Laboratory of {1. and environment Change/Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Atmospheric sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Despite experiencing a decadal shift towards drought conditions at the end of the 2Oth century,semiarid grasslands in northeast Asia(NEA)exhibited an evident greening trend from 1.82 to ***,the mechanism behind this phenomenon remains ***,we analysed the interdecadal changes in vegetation response to drought on the basis of the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)and Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies LAI4g datasets,with an emphasis on the differences between direct and legacy effects(as measured by resilience),to explore the mechanism of persistent grassland *** revealed that during the post-drought shift period(2000-2020),the sudden decrease in the water content of the intermediate soil layer triggered an intensified vegetation response to ***,although direct effects and resilience were amplified,they exhibited asymmetric *** was stronger than direct effects,and this difference increased with increasing drought(drought recovery)*** combined effects may account for persistent greening against intensified drying in the semiarid grasslands in *** the projected exacerbation of future droughts,this study holds notable importance for comprehending the long-term change dynamics of dryland ecosystems.

关键词： Semiarid grassland Drought decadal shift Direct effect Legacy effect(resilience) Northeast Asia

Freshening of the Intermediate Waters in the Northern South China Sea over the Past Six Decades

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 42-50页

作者：陈栩洋王东晓舒业强成里京范双双 School of Marine sciences Sun Yat-Sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)ZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301 China international {1. for climate and environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China

The properties of salinity in the South China Sea(SCS),a significant marginal sea connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans,are greatly influenced by the transport of fresh water flux between the two ***,the long-term changes in the intermediate water in the SCS have not been thoroughly studied due to limited data,particularly in relation to its thermodynamic *** study utilized reanalysis data products to identify a 60-year trend of freshening in the intermediate waters of the northern South China Sea(NSCS),accompanied by an expansion of low-salinity *** study also constructed salinity budget terms,including advection and entrainment processes,and conducted an analysis of the salinity budget to understand the impacts of external and internal dynamic processes on the freshening trend of the intermediate water in the *** analysis revealed that the freshening in the northwest Pacific Ocean and the intensification of intrusion through the Luzon Strait at intermediate levels are the primary drivers of the salinity changes in the ***,a weakened trend in the intensity of vertical entrainment also contributes to the freshening in the *** study offers new insights into the understanding of regional deep sea changes in response to variations in both thermodynamics and oceanic dynamic processes.

关键词： freshening South China Sea salinity of the intermediate water salinity budget analysis Luzon Strait transport