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Projected near-surface wind speed and wind energy over Central Asia using dynamical downscaling with bias-corrected global climate models

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Advances in climate {1. research 2024年第4期15卷 669-679页

作者： Jin-Lin ZHA Ting CHUAN Yuan QIU Jian WU De-Ming ZHAO Wen-Xuan FAN Yan-Jun LYU Hui-Ping JIANG Kai-Qiang DENG Miguel ANDRES-MARTIN Cesar AZORIN-MOLINA Deliang CHEN Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Processes in the Boundary Layer over the Low-Latitude Plateau Region Department of Atmospheric ScienceYunnan UniversityKunming 650091China Key Laboratory of Regional climate and Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China center for Energy&Environmental Policy {1. Beijing Institute of Technology Beijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China International research {1. of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals Beijing 100094China School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Centro de Investigaciones Sobre Desertificacion Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas(CIDECSIC-UV-Generalitat Valenciana)ClimateAtmosphere and Ocean Laboratory(Climatoc-Lab)Moncada 46113Spain Regional climate Group.Deparment of Earth Sciences University of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden

Wind energy development in Central Asia can help alleviate drought and fragile ***,current studies mainly used the global climate models(GCMs)to project wind speed and *** simulated biases in GCMs remain prominent,which induce a large uncertainty in the projected *** reduce the uncertainties of projected near-surface wind speed(NSW)and better serve the wind energy development in Central Asia,the Weather {1. and Forecasting(WRF)model with bias-corrected GCMs was *** with the outputs of GCMs,dynamical downscaling acquired using the WRF model can better capture the high-and low-value centres of NSWS,especially those of Central Asia's ***,the simulated NSWS bias was also *** future changes in wind speed and wind energy,under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(RCP4.5)scenario,NSWS during 2031.2050 is projected to decrease compared with that in *** magnitude of NSwS reduction during 2031.2050 willreach 0.1.m s^(-1..and the maximum reduction is projected to occur over the central and western regions(>0.2 m s^(-1.).Furthermore,future wind power density(WPD)can reveal nonstationarity and strong volatility,although a downward trend is expected during *** addition,the higher frequency of wind speeds at the turbine hub height exceeding 3.0 m s^(-1.can render the plain regions more suitable for wind energy development than the mountains from 2031.to *** study can serve as a guide in gaining insights into future changes in wind energy across Central Asia and provide a scientific basis for decision makers in the formulation of policies for addressing climate change.

关键词： Near-surface wind speed Wind power density Dynamical downscaling Central Asia WRF

Local climate {1. Induced by Urbanization on a South China Sea Island

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 11-19页

作者：郝宇李磊陈柏纬孙伟戴永久 School of Atmospheric Sciences Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Sun Yatsen UniversityZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China Guangdong Provincial Observation and research Station for {1. Environment and Air Quality change in the Pearl River Estuary ZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of EducationSun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China Guangdong Provincial Marine Meteorology Science Data center Guangzhou 510640 China Hong Kong Observatory KowloonHongkong 999077 China Meteorological Bureau of Sansha City SanshaHainan 573199 China

The South China Sea is a hotspot for regional climate *** the past 40 years,considerable improvement has been made in the development and utilization of the islands in the South China Sea,leading to a substantial {1. in the land-use of the ***,research on the impact of human development on the local climate of these islands is *** study analyzed the characteristics of local climate {1.s on the islands in the South China Sea based on data from the Yongxing Island Observation Station and ERA5 ***,the influence of urbanization on the local climate of the South China Sea islands was explored in this *** findings revealed that the 1.-year average temperature in Yongxing Island increased by approximately 1.1.℃from 1.61.to 2020,and the contribution of island development and urbanization to the local warming rate over 60 years was approximately 36.2%.The linear increasing trend of the annual hot days from 1.61.2020 was approximately 1..84 days per *** diurnal temperature range exhibited an increasing trend of 0.05℃per decade,whereas the number of cold days decreased by 1.06days per *** rapid increase in construction on Yongxing Island from 2005 to 2021.led to a decrease in observed surface wind speed by 0.32 m s^(-1.per ***,the number of days with strong winds decreased,whereas the number of days with weak winds ***,relative humidity exhibited a rapid decline from 2001.to 201. and then *** study also found substantial differences between the ERA5 re-analysis and observation data,particularly in wind speed and relative humidity,indicating that the use of re-analysis data for climate resource assessment and climate {1. evaluation on island areas may not be feasible.

关键词： local climate climate {1. Yongxing Island a South China Sea island climate {1. induced by urbanization

A Comprehensive Classification and Analysis of Geomagnetic Storms Over Solar Cycle 24

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research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 2024年第8期24卷 75-84页

作者： Raja Adibah Raja Halim Shah Nurul Shazana Abdul Hamid Mardina Abdullah Adlyka Annuar Idahwati Sarudin Zahira Mohd Radzi Akimasa Yoshikawa Department of Applied Physics Faculty of Science and TechnologyUniversiti Kebangsaan Malaysia43600 BangiMalaysia Space Science Centre(ANGKASA) Institute of Climate ChangeUniversiti Kebangsaan Malaysia43600 BangiMalaysia Department of Electrical Electronic and Systems EngineeringFaculty of Engineering and Built EnvironmentUniversiti Kebangsaan Malaysia43600 BangiMalaysia School of Physics Universiti Sains Malaysia11800 USMPulau PinangMalaysia Malaysian Space Agency(MYSA) Kuala Lumpur50480Malaysia International research {1. for Space and Planetary Environmental Science(i-SPES) Kyushu University819-0395 FukuokaJapan

A geomagnetic storm is a global disturbance of Earth?s magnetosphere,occurring as a result of the interaction with magnetic plasma ejected from the *** considerable research,a comprehensive classification of storms for a complete solar cycle has not yet been fully developed,as most previous studies have been limited to specific storm *** study,therefore,attempted to present complete statistics for solar cycle 24,detailing the occurrence of geomagnetic storm events and classifying them by type of intensity(moderate,intense,and severe),type of complete interval(normal or complex),duration of the recovery phase(rapid or long),and the number of steps in the storm?s *** analysis was applied to data from ground-based magnetometers,which measured the Dst index as provided by the World Data {1. for Geomagnetism,Kyoto,*** study identified 21. storm events,comprising moderate(1.7 events),intense(33 events),and severe(1.event)*** 36%of ICMEs and 23%of CIRs are found to be geoeffective,which caused geomagnetic *** to four-step development of geomagnetic storms was exhibited during the main phase for this solar *** showed the geomagnetic storms developed one or more steps in the main phase,which were probably related to the driver that triggered the geomagnetic storms.A case study was additionally conducted to observe the variations of the ionospheric disturbance dynamo(Ddyn)phenomenon that resulted from the geomagnetic storm event of 201.July *** attenuation of the Ddyn in the equatorial region was analyzed using the H component of geomagnetic field data from stations in the Asian sector(Malaysia and India).The variations in the Ddyn signatures were observed at both stations,with the TIR station(India)showing higher intensity than the LKW station(Malaysia).

关键词： (Sun)sunspots-Sun activity-(Sun)solar-terrestrial relations-Sun coronal mass ejections(CMEs)

Predominant types of regional cold waves in North China and their historical changes

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第4期17卷 46-51页

作者： Xinyi Cheng Yiyi Zhang Jiandong Li Xin Hao center for {1. System Prediction research/Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina Nansen-Zhu International research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment TechnologySchool of Environmental Science and EngineeringNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina

寒潮事件对东亚地区的社会经济,生态系统和人体健康影响巨大.根据1.80-201.年间1.月至次年3月的每日寒潮记录和K-means聚类,本文识别出了中国两种不同类型的区域性寒潮(T1.T2). T1.域性寒潮主要影响东北地区,T2区域性寒潮则主要影响... 详细信息

寒潮事件对东亚地区的社会经济,生态系统和人体健康影响巨大.根据1.80-201.年间1.月至次年3月的每日寒潮记录和K-means聚类,本文识别出了中国两种不同类型的区域性寒潮(T1.T2). T1.域性寒潮主要影响东北地区,T2区域性寒潮则主要影响华北和东部地区.与T1.域性寒潮相比, T2区域性寒潮强度更强,持续时间更长,影响范围更广. 1.80–201.年期间, T1.域性寒潮的频率显著增加,而T2区域性寒潮的频率则没有趋势变化. T1.T2区域性寒潮事件均与西伯利亚高压增强有关,然而与它们相关的对流层中层波列明显不同.在T1.域性寒潮事件发生期间,西伯利亚-蒙古上空出现负-正模态的500-hPa位势高度异常波列,削弱了东亚大槽,导致西伯利亚冷空气东移.T1.域寒潮频次增加趋势可能与全球变暖引起的500-hPa位势高度的线性趋势变化有关.与T2区域寒潮事件相关的波列则在乌拉尔山脉,蒙古和华北地区形成了脊-槽-脊环流异常,导致冷空气向东南方向入侵.本文得出结论,由于两类区域寒潮影响不同,西伯利亚高压增强和对流层中层波列模态在我国区域性寒潮事件的预报中应综合考虑.

关键词：寒潮 K-means聚类西伯利亚高压波列

CAS-ESM2.0 Successfully Reproduces Historical Atmospheric CO_(2) in a Coupled Carbon−climate Simulation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 572-580页

作者： Jiawen ZHU Juanxiong HE Duoying JI Yangchun LI He ZHANG Minghua ZHANG Xiaodong ZENG Kece FEI Jiangbo JIN International center for {1. and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China College of Global change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook UniversityNY 11790USA University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2))concentration has been increasing rapidly since the Industrial Revolution,which has led to unequivocal global warming and crucial environmental *** is extremely important to investigate the interactions among atmospheric CO_(2),the physical climate system,and the carbon cycle of the underlying surface for a better understanding of the Earth *** system models are widely used to investigate these interactions via coupled carbon-climate *** Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model version 2(CAS-ESM2.0)has successfully fixed a two-way coupling of atmospheric CO_(2)with the climate and carbon cycle on land and in the *** CAS-ESM2.0,we conducted a coupled carbon-climate simulation by following the CMIP6 proposal of a historical emissions-driven *** paper examines the modeled CO_(2)by comparison with observed CO_(2)at the sites of Mauna Loa and Barrow,and the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite(GOSAT)CO_(2)*** results showed that CAS-ESM2.0 agrees very well with observations in reproducing the increasing trend of annual CO_(2)during the period 1.50-201.,and in capturing the seasonal cycle of CO_(2)at the two baseline sites,as well as over northern high *** agreements illustrate a good ability of CAS-ESM2.0 in simulating carbon-climate interactions,even though uncertainties remain in the processes *** paper reports an important stage of the development of CAS-ESM with the coupling of carbon and climate,which will provide significant scientific support for climate research and China’s goal of carbon neutrality.

关键词： CAS-ESM atmospheric CO_(2) coupled carbon-climate simulation emissions-driven CMIP6 experiment

Anthropogenic influence on the extreme drought in eastern China in 2022 and its future risk

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第1期17卷 21-27页

作者： Yinjun Zhang Lin Chen Yuqing Li Zi-An Ge Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

2022年夏季中国东部地区遭遇了一次持续性极端高温干旱事件.本文利用CMIP6检测归因比较计划(DAMIP)数据,量化了人为强迫对类2022年极端干旱事件发生概率的影响,并基于未来不同增暖情景试验给出了此类极端干旱事件的未来变化预估.通过分... 详细信息

2022年夏季中国东部地区遭遇了一次持续性极端高温干旱事件.本文利用CMIP6检测归因比较计划(DAMIP)数据,量化了人为强迫对类2022年极端干旱事件发生概率的影响,并基于未来不同增暖情景试验给出了此类极端干旱事件的未来变化预估.通过分析不同外强迫因子作用下此类极端干旱事件的发生概率变化,发现人为强迫使此类极端干旱事件的发生概率提高约56%,这主要与人为强迫下中国东部平均水汽减少和平均上升运动减弱有关.进一步通过分析此类极端干旱事件对不同温室气体排放情景(SSP1.2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)的响应,发现在低排放情景下类2022年极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候显著下降,这主要与中国东部平均水汽的增加和平均环流的变化有关,而在高排放情景(SSP5-8.5)下,此类极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候增加约79%,这主要与高排放情景下平均下沉运动增强有关.该研究表明,人为强迫通过调制气候平均背景场从而引起极端事件发生频次的变化是人类活动影响极端气候事件的重要途径之一,极端干旱事件对温室气体排放量的响应可能是非线性的.

关键词：极端干旱中国东部归因分析人为强迫未来预估

changes in human settlement environments and their drivers in valley cities located in arid and semi-arid regions:A case study of Lanzhou in Western China

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research in Cold and Arid Regions 2024年第3期16卷 149-158页

作者： Rong Zhu YouYan Jiang Bo Wang YaHui Zhang Gansu Institute of Architectural Design and research LanzhouGansu 730000China College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhouGansu 730000China Lanzhou Regional climate {1. LanzhouGansu 730020China School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering Xi’An Jiaotong UniversityXi’AnShanxi 712000China

Development of urban human settlement environments(HSEs)is an integral part of promoting high-quality and sustainable regional development and constructing a beautiful *** city of Lanzhou,located at the geometric center of China,is the only provincial capital traversed by the Yellow *** the constraints posed by the valley topography and the need for economic development,the development of this HSE,which is located within an arid region,poses considerable ***,an understanding of the evolution of HSEs and drivers of {1.s in them contributes to high-quality,sustainable urban development in arid and semi-arid *** analytical model was developed using the parameters of relief degree of land surface,human comfort days,the land cover index,nighttime light index,and *** model was used in combination with population density and the gross domestic product to analyze the spatial distribution of Lanzhou's HSE and its *** results showed that landscapes in Lanzhou underwent significant {1.s between 2000 and 2022,with an increase in building-up land(+0.946%),cultivated land(+0.1.4%),and forest land(+0.01.%)and a decrease in grassland(-1.1.%).There was significant outward expansion of the main urban zone of Lanzhou and of various county towns,with the increase in building-up land being most *** this period,there were significant {1.s in the periphery of the core urban area and county towns in Lanzhou,with decreases moving from the urban center(the highest value)to the surrounding areas(Yongdeng County had the lowest value).The correlation between the HSE and population density grew stronger in Anning and Chengguan Districts but became weaker in Xigu and Qilihe *** variations in the HSE were primarily caused by climate {1.,followed by human activities,and were also influenced by the valley ***,the spatial distribution of population density and the HSE in Lanzhou d

关键词： Human settlement environment Vegetation index Nighttime light index Human comfort days

Cancer statistics for young adults aged 20 to 49 years in China from 2000 to 201.:a population-based registry study

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Science China(Life Sciences) 2024年第4期67卷 711-719页

作者： Yi Teng Changfa Xia He Li Maomao Cao Fan Yang Xinxin Yan Siyi He Mengdi Cao Shaoli Zhang Qianru Li Wanqing Chen Office of Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijing 100021China

An increasing cancer incidence among adults younger than 50 years has been reported for several types of cancer in multiple *** aimed to report cancer profiles and trends among young adults in *** from the China Cancer Registry Annual Report were used to estimate incidence and mortality among young adults(ages 20–49 years)in China in 201.,and an age-period-cohort model was employed to estimate the average annual percent change(AAPC)in incidence and mortality from 2000 to *** 25 cancer types were grouped into obesity-or overweight-associated cancers(1. cancer types)and additional cancers(1. cancer types).In 201.,there were 681.1.8new cases and 21.,591.cancer deaths among young adults in *** young adults,the most common cancers were thyroid,breast,cervical,liver,lung,and colorectal cancer,and the leading causes of cancer deaths were liver,lung,cervical,stomach,breast,and colorectal *** 2000 to 201.,the cancer incidence increased for all cancers combined among young adults,with the highest AAPC(1.46%)for adults aged 20–24 years,while cancer mortality decreased,with the highest AAPC(-1.63%)for those aged 35–39 *** conclusion,the cancer incidence in China has increased among young adults,while cancer mortality has decreased for nearly all *** control measures,such as obesity control and appropriate screening,may contribute to reducing the increasing cancer burden among young adults.

关键词： young adults incidence mortality trends China

Global patterns and ecological drivers of taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism in angiosperm genera

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Plant Diversity 2024年第2期46卷 149-157页

作者： Hong Qian Brent D.Mishler Jian Zhang Shenhua Qian research and Collections {1. Illinois State Museum1011 East Ash StreetSpringfieldIL 62703USA University and Jepson Herbaria Department of Integrative BiologyUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeleyCA 94720-2465USA center for Global {1. and Complex Ecosystems Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research StationSchool of Ecological and Environmental SciencesEast China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China Shanghai Institute of Pollution Control and Ecological Security Shanghai 200092China Key Laboratory of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region's Eco-Environment Ministry of EducationChongqing UniversityChongqing 400045China

Endemism of lineages lies at the core of understanding variation in community composition among geographic regions because it reflects how speciation,extinction,and dispersal have influenced current ***,we investigated geographic patterns and ecological drivers of taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism of angiosperm genera across the *** identify centers of paleo-endemism and neo-endemism of angiosperm genera,and show that they are mostly located in the Southern Hemisphere in tropical and subtropical regions,particularly in Asia and *** categories of phylogenetic endemism centers can be differentiated using current climate *** climate,historical climate change,and geographic variables together explained~80%of global variation in taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism,while 42-46%,1.,and 1.%were independently explained by these three types of variables,*** our findings show that past climate change,current climate,and geography act together in shaping endemism,which are consistent with the findings of previous studies that higher temperature and topographic heterogeneity promote *** study showed that many centers of phylogenetic endemism of angiosperms,including regions in Amazonia,Venezuela,and west-central tropical Africa that have not previously been identified as biodiversity hotspots,are missed by taxon-based measures of endemism,indicating the importance of including evolutionary history in biodiversity assessment.

关键词： Angiosperm Current climate Endemism Historical climate {1. Topographic heterogeneity