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The Predictability Limit of Oceanic Mesoscale Eddy Tracks in the South China Sea

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第9期41卷 1661-1679页

作者： Hailong LIU Pingxiang CHU Yao MENG Mengrong DING Pengfei LIN Ruiqiang DING Pengfei WANG Weipeng ZHENG LASG Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Laoshan Laboratory Qingdao 266237China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Marine Science and Technology College Zhejiang Ocean UniversityZhoushan 316022China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100872China Center for Monsoon System Research(cmsr) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

Employing the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) technique, this study assesses the quantitative predictability limit of oceanic mesoscale eddy (OME) tracks utilizing three eddy datasets for both annual and seasonal means. Our findings reveal a discernible predictability limit of approximately 39 days for cyclonic eddies (CEs) and 44 days for anticyclonic eddies (AEs) within the South China Sea (SCS). The predictability limit is related to the OME properties and seasons. The long-lived, large-amplitude, and large-radius OMEs tend to have a higher predictability limit. The predictability limit of AE (CE) tracks is highest in autumn (winter) with 52 (53) days and lowest in spring (summer) with 40 (30) days. The spatial distribution of the predictability limit of OME tracks also has seasonal variations, further finding that the area of higher predictability limits often overlaps with periodic OMEs. Additionally, the predictability limit of periodic OME tracks is about 49 days for both CEs and AEs, which is 5-1. days higher than the mean values. Usually, in the SCS, OMEs characterized by high predictability limit values exhibit more extended and smoother trajectories and often move along the northern slope of the SCS.

关键词： predictability mesoscale eddy nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent South China Sea seasonal variability

Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin WANG Kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG Fangxing FAN Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao ZHU Tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU International Center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Monsoon System Research(cmsr) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

Relationship between the Modes of Winter Tropical Pacific SST Anomalies and the Intraseasonal Variations of the Following Summer Rainfall Anomalies in China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2009年第5期2卷 295-300页

作者： Huang Ping Huang Rong-Hui Center for Monsoon System Research (cmsr) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190 China

In present study,EOF analysis and extended singular value decomposition (ESVD) analysis are performed to explore the relationship between the winter tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Pacific and the following summer rainfall anomalies in *** two leading modes of winter tropical SSTAs in the Pacific are the SSTAs pattern characterized by "positive anomalies in the East and negative anomalies in the West" like the typical eastern Pacific El Nio and negative anomalies in the West and the central Pacific warming pattern characterized by "positive anomalies in the central region but negative anomalies in the East and West".The intraseasonal variations of the rainfall anomalies during the following summer in China that are associated with the eastern Pacific warming mode are characterized by positive anomalies south of the Yangtze River and negative anomalies in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley in June,and negative anomalies in South China and positive anomalies in the Yangtze River Valley and North China in July and *** contrast,after the central Pacific warming mode,the corresponding intraseasonal variations of China’s summer rainfall are characterized by a nearly consistent pattern during the three summer months,which is positive in the South China coast and North China and negative in the Yangtze River Valley except for the positive anomalies in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley in *** results may provide a reference for the seasonal prediction of the summer drought and flood distributions in China.

关键词： Pacific SSTAs summer rainfall in China intraseasonal variations

Arctic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation in Internal Atmospheric Variability with an Ensemble AGCM Simulation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2007年第1期24卷 152-162页

作者：陆日宇李颖 Buwen DONG State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG） and Center for Monsoon System Research （ cmsr） Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate （ NCAS） Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading United Kingdom

In this study, we investigated the features of Arctic Oscillation （AO） and Antarctic Oscillation （AAO）, that is, the annular modes in the extratropics, in the internal atmospheric variability attained through an ensemble of integrations by an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） forced with the global observed SSTs. We focused on the interannual variability of AO/AAO, which is dominated by internal atmospheric variability. In comparison with previous observed results, the AO/AAO in internal atmospheric variability bear some similar characteristics, but exhibit a much clearer spatial structure： significant correlation between the North Pacific and North Atlantic centers of action, much stronger and more significant associated precipitation anomalies, and the meridional displacement of upper-tropospheric westerly jet streams in the Northern/Southern Hemisphere. In addition, we examined the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）/AO and East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM）. It has been shown that in the internal atmospheric variability, the EAWM variation is significantly related to the NAO through upper-tropospheric atmospheric teleconnection patterns.

关键词： internal atmospheric variability North Atlantic Oscillation Arctic Oscillation Antarctic Oscillation extratropical climate anomalies East Asian winter monsoon

RESEARCH ON THE INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITIES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THEIR IMPACTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2018年第4期24卷 395-420页

作者： HUANG Rong-hui HUANGFU Jing-liang WU Liang FENG Tao CHEN Guang-hua Center for Monsoon System Research (cmsr) Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) College of Earth Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies Institute for Climate and Global Change ResearchSchool of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University

In this paper, we mainly summarize and review the progresses in recent climatological studies(by cmsr,IAP/CAS and some associated domestic and international institutions) on the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of monsoon troughs and their impacts on tropical cyclones and typhoons(TCs) geneses over the western North Pacific Ocean. The climatological characteristics of monsoon troughs and four types of circulation patterns favorable to TCs genesis over the western North Pacific Ocean in summer and autumn are given in this paper. It is also shown in this paper that the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean has obvious interannual and interdecadal variabilities. Especially, it is revealed in this paper that the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean influence the TCs genesis not only through the impact on distributions of the vorticity in the lower troposphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere, the water vapor in the mid-and lower troposphere and the vertical shear of wind fields between the upper and lower troposphere over the western North Pacific Ocean, but also through the dynamical effects of the transition between convectively coupled tropical waves and providing disturbance energy. Besides, some climatological problems associated with TCs activity over the western North Pacific Ocean that need to be studied further are also pointed out in this paper.

关键词： monsoon trough interannual variability interdecadal variability tropical cyclone typhoon

长江流域梅雨期大范围持续性强降水事件的自维持机制:2020年一次暴雨过程的个例分析

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大气科学 2022年第6期46卷 1394-1406页

作者：马骄魏科陈文中国科学院大气物理研究所季风系统研究中心(cmsr) 北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049

长江流域梅雨期降水强度大、范围广、持续时间长,经常导致大范围严重洪涝灾害。该类强降水事件的内动力学过程值得深入讨论。本文以2020年7月5~9日长江流域一次大范围持续性降水为例,通过WRF数值试验分析了降水过程中的凝结潜热与环流... 详细信息

长江流域梅雨期降水强度大、范围广、持续时间长,经常导致大范围严重洪涝灾害。该类强降水事件的内动力学过程值得深入讨论。本文以2020年7月5~9日长江流域一次大范围持续性降水为例,通过WRF数值试验分析了降水过程中的凝结潜热与环流系统的相互作用过程。结果表明:在此次大范围持续性强降水事件中,由于凝结潜热的释放,在高层形成高压异常,有利于南亚高压(SAH)加强东伸,SAH东伸的同时与西太平洋副热带高压(WPSH)相互作用,加强WPSH西伸。在潜热释放中心的中低层形成低压异常,有助于阻挡WPSH北上,从而形成稳定的WPSH,有利于降雨系统在长江流域的维持。东亚夏季风演变表现为明显的停滞与北跳特征,其中WPSH的活动是季风雨带演变的核心。本文研究表明,大尺度凝结潜热释放可以通过调节天气系统形成稳定的环流系统,从而有利于雨带加强和维持。这种大尺度雨带凝结潜热释放与环流的相互作用机制可能是夏季风雨带停滞的重要过程。

关键词：暴雨梅雨凝结潜热东亚夏季风

Understanding the dynamical mechanism of year-to-year incremental prediction by nonlinear time series prediction theory

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2018年第1期11卷 71-77页

作者： Bi Shu-Ting Wang Peng-Fei Pan Xin-Nong Li Chao-Fan Center for Monsoon System Research(cmsr) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina Key Laboratory for Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation(LAGEO) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Previous studies have shown that year-to-year incremental prediction （YIP） can obtain considerable skill in seasonal forecasts. This study analyzes the mathematical deRnition of YiP and derives its formula in the nonlinear time series prediction （NP） method, it is shown that the two methods are equivalent when the prediction time series is embedded in one-dimensional phase space. Compared to previous NP models, the new one introduces multiple external forcings in the form of year-to-year increments. The year-to-year increments have physical meaning, which is better than the NP model with empirically chosen parameters. The summer rainfall over the middle to lower reaches of the Yangtze River is analyzed to examine the prediction skill of the NP models. Results show that the NP model with year-to-year increments can reach a similar skill as the YiP model. When the embedded number of dimensions is increased to two, more accurate prediction can be obtained. Besides similar results, the NP method has more dynamical meaning, as it is based on the classical reconstruction theory. Moreover, by choosing different embedded dimensions, the NP model can reconstruct the dynamical curve into phase space with more than one dimension, which is an advantage of the NP model. The present study suggests that YIP has a robust dynamical foundation, besides its physical mechanism, and the modified NP model has the potential to increase the operationaJ skill in short- term climate prediction.

关键词： Year-to-year incrementalprediction nonlineartime series prediction precipitation Yangtze River seasonal prediction

Simulation of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream with GFDL AGCM (AM2.1.

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2011年第1期4卷 24-29页

作者： HUANG Gang LIU Yong Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia （RCE-TEA） Institute of Atmospheric Physics （lAP） Chinese Academy of Science （CAS） Beijing 100029 China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG） IAP CAS Beij＇ing 100029 China Center for Monsoon System Research （cmsr） IAP CAS Beijing 100080 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

The present study validated the capability of the AM2.1.a model developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL),in reproducing the fundamental features of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream (EASWJ).The main behaviors of the EASWJ are also investigated through the reanalysis of observational NCEP/NCAR *** mean state of the EASWJ,including its intensity,location,structure,and seasonal evolution is generally well-portrayed in the *** with the observation,the model tends to reproduce a weaker jet ***,during summer,the simulated jet center is *** also demonstrate the model captures the variability of EASWJ during summer *** results of the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) applied on the zonal wind at 200 hPa (U200) over East Asia for both the observation and simulation indicate an inter-decadal shift around the late *** correlation coefficient between the corresponding principle components is as great as 0.42 with significance at the 99% confidence level.

关键词： East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream seasonal evolution GCM

气候数值模拟研究中初始场衰减理论的理解和应用

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气象学报 2009年第2期67卷 218-226页

作者：王鹏飞李建平顾雷中国科学院大气物理研究所 lasg北京100029 中国科学院大气物理研究所季风系统研究中心(cmsr) 北京100029

根据对大气原始方程的定性理论和相空间的理论研究,初始场对数值模拟的作用会随着时间的增长而逐步衰减。文章分析初始场作用衰减理论的关键问题,通过对大气环流谱模式SAMIL和ECHAM的数值试验,在实际的计算环境中研究其初始场作用的变... 详细信息

根据对大气原始方程的定性理论和相空间的理论研究,初始场对数值模拟的作用会随着时间的增长而逐步衰减。文章分析初始场作用衰减理论的关键问题,通过对大气环流谱模式SAMIL和ECHAM的数值试验,在实际的计算环境中研究其初始场作用的变化情况。研究中使用到对舍入误差干扰的一种集合消减方法(REME),保证了验证试验所受舍入误差的影响小于给定的范围。结果表明有舍入误差存在的计算环境中,当初始差别较大时,其逐步衰减到一个波动值。而对于特别微小的初始场差别,其长期影响也应是衰减的,但由于计算精度有限,可能会出现增大到一个波动值的现象,这些结果与非线性误差理论所描述的误差饱和现象一致。试验得到了具体模式的衰减速率曲线,发现衰减需要的时间范围大约为40—60d。文中还利用初始场作用衰减的理论探讨了如何解释初始场集合预报(IME)能够减少模拟结果误差的现象。

关键词：初始场误差气候大气环流模式集合预报