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Economic and scale prediction of CO_(2)capture,utilization and storage technologies in China

Petroleum Exploration and Development 2023年第3期50卷 751-764页

作者： ZHAO Xiaoling XIAO Jinyu HOU Jinming WU Jiawei LYU Xunyan ZHANG Jinxuan LIU Yao Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization Beijing 100031China

In response to the lack of global quantitative research on the potential and scale prediction of CO_(2) capture,utilization and storage(CCUS)in China under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals,this study predicts the future economic costs of different links of ccUS technologies and the carbon capture needs of different industries in the scenario of fossil energy continuation.Based on the CO_(2) utilization and storage potential and spatial distribution in China,a cost-scale calculation model for different regions in China in 206o is constructed to predict the whole-process economic cost and its corresponding scale potential of CCUs.The results show that a local+remote storage mode is preferred,together with a local utilization mode,to meet China's 27×10^(8)t/a CO_(2) emission reduction demand under the scenario of fossil energy continuation.Specifically,about 5×10^(8) t CO_(2) emission is reduced by capture utilization,and the whole-process cost is about-1400-200 RMB/t;about 22×10^(8) t CO_(2) emission is reduced by capture storage,and the whole-process cost is about 200-450 RMB/t.According to the model results,it is recommended to develop the chemical utilization industry based on P2X(Power to X,where X is raw material)technology,construct the CcUs industrial cluster,and explore a multi-party win-win cooperation mode.A scheme of national trunk pipeline network connecting areas connecting intensive emission reduction demand areas and target storage areas is suggested.The emission reduction cost of thermal power based on CCUS is calculated to be 0.16 RMB/(kW.h).

关键词： CcUS whole-process modeling cost-scale calculation model transport pipeline thermal power emission reductioncost

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