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Interdecadal Change in the Interannual Variation of the western Edge of the western north pacific subtropical high During Early Summer and the Influence of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2022年第1期28卷 57-70页

作者：詹鸿宇陈锐丹蓝铭 Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies/School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)ZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China School of Marine Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China

This study reveals that the interannual variability of the western edge of the western north pacific(WNP)subtropical high(WNPSH)in early summer experienced an interdecadal decrease around 1990.Correspondingly,the zonal movement of the WNPSH and the zonal extension of the high-pressure anomaly over the WNP(WNPHA)in abnormal years possess smaller ranges after 1990.The different influences of the tropical SSTAs are important for this interdecadal change,which exhibit slow El Nino decaying pattern before 1990 while rapid transformation from El Nino to La Nina after 1990.The early summer tropical SSTAs and the relevant atmospheric circulation anomalies present obvious interdecadal differences.Before 1990,the warm SSTAs over the northern Indian Ocean and southern South China Sea favor the WNPHA through eastward-propagating Kelvin wave and meridional-vertical circulation,respectively.Meanwhile,the warm SSTA over the tropical central pacific induces anomalous ascent to its northwest through the Gill response,which could strengthen the anomalous descent over the WNP through meridional-vertical circulation and further favor the eastward extension of the WNPHA to central pacific.After 1990,the warm SSTAs over the Maritime Continent and northern Indian Ocean cause the WNPHA through meridional-vertical and zonal-vertical circulation,respectively.Overall,the anomalous warm SSTs and ascent and the resultant anomalous descent over the WNP are located more westward and southward after 1990 than before 1990.Consequently,the WNPHA features narrower zonal range and less eastward extension after 1990,corresponding to the interdecadal decease in the interannual variability of the western edge of the WNPSH.On the other hand,the dominant oscillation period of ENSO experienced an interdecadal reduction around 1990,contributing to the change of the El Nino SSTA associated with the anomalous WNPSH from slow decaying type to rapid transformation type.

关键词： western north pacific subtropical high interdecadal change interannual variation tropical sea surface temperature ENSO

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The Key Oceanic Regions Responsible for the Interannual Variability of the western north pacific subtropical high and Associated Mechanisms

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2015年第4期29卷 562-575页

作者：何超周天军吴波 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Joint Center for Global Change Studies

The western north pacific subtropical high （WNPSH） is an important circulation system that impacts the East Asian summer climate. The interannual variability of the WNPSH is modulated by tropical air-sea interaction. In order to make it clear which oceanic regions are crucial to the interannual variability of the WNPSH, the research progresses in this regard in the past decade are reviewed. Based on the review, it is recognized that five oceanic regions are responsible for the interannual variability of the WNPSH in summer, including the equatorial central-eastern pacific Ocean, tropical Indian Ocean, subtropical western north pacific, the vicinity of the maritime continent, and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The mechanisms how the sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） in these regions affect the WNPSH are elaborated. The formation mechanisms for the SSTAs in these five regions are discussed. Strengths and weaknesses of the climate models in simulating and predicting the WNPSH are also documented. Finally, key scientific problems deserving further studies are proposed.

关键词： western north pacific subtropical high interannual variability air-sea interaction

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Decadal Change in the Influence of the western north pacific subtropical high on Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin in the Late 1970s

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第11期38卷 1823-1834页

作者： Xinyu LI Riyu LU Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting Ministry of Natural ResourcesHohai UniversityNanjing 210098China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China

It is well known that on the interannual timescale,the westward extension of the western north pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)results in enhanced rainfall over the Yangtze River basin(YRB)in summer,and vice versa.This study identifies that this correspondence experiences a decadal change in the late 1970s.That is,the WNPSH significantly affects YRB precipitation(YRBP)after the late 1970s(P2)but not before the late 1970s(P1).It is found that enhanced interannual variability of the WNPSH favors its effect on YRB rainfall in P2.On the other hand,after removing the strong WNPSH cases in P2 and making the WNPSH variability equivalent to that in P1,the WNPSH can still significantly affect YRB rainfall,suggesting that the WNPSH variability is not the only factor that affects the WNPSH-YRBP relationship.Further results indicate that the change in basic state of thermal conditions in the tropical WNP provides a favorable background for the enhanced WNPSH-YRBP relationship.In P2,the lower-tropospheric atmosphere in the tropical WNP gets warmer and wetter,and thus the meridional gradient of climatological equivalent potential temperature over the YRB is enhanced.As a result,the WNPSH-related circulation anomalies can more effectively induce YRB rainfall anomalies through affecting the meridional gradient of equivalent potential temperature over the YRB.

关键词： Yangtze River basin western north pacific subtropical high rainfall interannual relationship decadal change

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Different Configurations of Interannual Variability of the western north pacific subtropical high and East Asian Westerly Jet in Summer

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第6期38卷 931-942页

作者： Xinyu LI Riyu LU Gen LI Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting Ministry of Natural ResourcesHohai UniversityNanjing 210098China College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

This study investigates the circulation and precipitation anomalies associated with different configurations of the western north pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)and the East Asian westerly jet(EAJ)in summer on interannual timescales.The in-phase configuration of the WNPSH and EAJ is characterized by the westward(eastward)extension of the WNPSH and the southward(northward)shift of the EAJ,which is consistent with the general correspondence between their variations.The out-of-phase configuration includes the residual cases.We find that the in-phase configuration manifests itself as a typical meridional teleconnection.For instance,there is an anticyclonic(cyclonic)anomaly over the tropical western north pacific and a cyclonic(anticyclonic)anomaly over the mid-latitudes of East Asia in the lower troposphere.These circulation anomalies are more conducive to rainfall anomalies over the Yangtze River basin and south Japan than are the individual WNPSH or EAJ.By contrast,for the out-of-phase configuration,the mid-latitude cyclonic(anticyclonic)anomaly is absent,and the lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies feature an anticyclonic(cyclonic)anomaly with a large meridional extension.Correspondingly,significant rainfall anomalies move northward to north China and the northern Korean Peninsula.Further results indicate that the out-of-phase configuration is associated with the developing phase of ENSO,with strong and significant sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical central and eastern pacific which occur simultaneously during summer and persist into the following winter.This is sharply different from the in-phase configuration,for which the tropical SSTs are not a necessity.

关键词： western north pacific subtropical high East Asian westerly jet circulation rainfall sea surface temperature

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Mechanism of Regional Subseasonal Precipitation in the Strongest and Weakest East Asian Summer Monsoon Subseasonal Variation Years

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2022年第6期21卷 1411-1427页

作者： HU Haibo DENG Yuheng FANG Jiabei WANG Rongrong CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies Instituted for Climate and Global Change ResearchSchool of Atmospheric ScienceNanjing UniversityNanjing 210093China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Using the National Center for Environment Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis coupled dataset during 1979–2010,we selected four subseasonal indexes from the 16 East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)indexes to characterize the subseasonal variability of the entire EASM system.The strongest(1996)and weakest(1998)years of the subseasonal variation were revealed based on these subseasonal EASM indexes.Furthermore,three rainfall concentration areas were defined in East Asia,and these areas were dissected by the atmospheric midlatitude jet stream axis and the position of the western north pacific subtropical high(WNPSH).Then,the subseasonal effects of the WNPSH,the South Asian high(SAH),the Mongolian Cyclone(MC),and the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation(BSISO)on each rainfall concentration area were studied in the strongest and weakest subseasonal variation years of the EASM.During the summer of 1998,the WNPSH and the SAH were stable in the more southern region,which not only blocked the northward progression of the BSISO but also caused the MC to advance southward.Therefore,the summer of 1998 was the weakest subseasonal variability of the EASM,but with significant subseasonal precipitation episodes in the northern and central rainfall areas.However,in 1996,the BSISO repeatedly spread northward in the south rainfall area because of the weak intensities and northern positions of the WNPSH and the SAH,which caused significant subseasonal precipitation episodes.In addition,MC was blocked to the north of approximately 42°N with a weak subseasonal rainfall.

关键词： East Asian Summer Monsoon Subseasonal western north pacific subtropical high Mongolian Cyclone Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

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A New Hybrid Machine Learning Model for Short-Term Climate Prediction by Performing Classification Prediction and Regression Prediction Simultaneously

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第6期36卷 853-865页

作者： Deqian LI Shujuan HU Jinyuan GUO Kai WANG Chenbin GAO Siyi WANG Wenping HE Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhouUniversityLanzhou 730000 School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 519082

Machine learning methods are effective tools for improving short-term climate prediction.However,commonly used methods often carry out classification and regression prediction modeling separately and independently.Such a single modeling approach may obtain inconsistent prediction results in classification and regression and thus may not meet the needs of practical applications well.To address this issue,this study proposes a selective Naive Bayes ensemble model(SENB-EM)by introducing causal effect and voting strategy on Naive Bayes.The new model can not only screen effective predictors but also perform classification and regression prediction simultaneously.After being applied to the area prediction of summer western north pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)from 2008 to 2021,it is found that the accuracy classification score(a metric to assess the overall classification prediction accuracy)and the time correlation coefficient(TCC)of SENB-EM can reach 1.0 and 0.81,respectively.After integrating the results of different models[including multiple linear regression ensemble model(MLR-EM),SENB-EM,and Chinese Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System(CMME)used by National Climate Center(NCC)]for 2017-2021,the TCC of the ensemble results of SENB-EM and CMME can reach 0.92(the highest result among them).This indicates that the prediction results of the summer WNPSH area provided by SENB-EM have a high reference value for the real-time prediction.It is worth noting that,except for the numerical prediction results,the SENB-EM model can also give the range of numerical prediction intervals and predictions for anomalous degrees of the WNPSH area,thus providing more reference information for meteorological forecasters.Overall,as a new hybrid machine learning model,the SENB-EM has a good prediction ability;the approach of performing classification prediction and regression prediction simultaneously through integration is informative to short-term climate prediction.

关键词： selective Naive Bayes ensemble model machine learning short-term climate prediction classification prediction regression prediction western north pacific subtropical high

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Atmospheric Rivers and Mei-yu Rainfall in China:A Case Study of Summer 2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2137-2152页

作者： Ting WANG Ke WEI Jiao MA Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Atmospheric rivers(ARs)are long,narrow,and transient filaments of strong horizontal water vapor transport that can lead to extreme precipitation.To investigate the relationship between ARs and mei-yu rainfall in China,the mei-yu season of 2020 in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin is taken as an example.An adjusted AR-detection algorithm is applied on integrated water vapor transport(IVT)of the ERA5 reanalysis.The JRA-55 reanalysis and the data from Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM(IMERG)are also utilized to study the impacts of ARs on mei-yu rainfall in 2020.The results reveal that ARs in East Asia have an average length of 5400 km,a width of 600 km,a length/width ratio of 9.3,and a northeastward orientation of 30°.ARs are modulated by the western north pacific subtropical high.The IVT core is located at the south side of low pressure systems,moving eastward with a speed of 10°d−1.For the cross sections of ARs in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin,75%of the total flux is concentrated below 4 km with low-level jets near AR cores.Moreover,ARs occur mainly in the mei-yu period with a frequency of 20%–60%.The intensity of AR-related precipitation is 6–12 times that of AR-unrelated precipitation,and AR-related precipitation contributes about 50%–80%to total mei-yu precipitation.As shown in this case study of summer 2020,ARs are an essential part of the mei-yu system and have great impacts on mei-yu rainfall.Thus,ARs should receive more attention in research and weather forecast practices.

关键词： atmospheric rivers East Asian summer monsoon mei-yu front low-level jet western north pacific subtropical high

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Large-scale Circulation Control of the Occurrence of Low-level Turbulence at Hong Kong International Airport

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第4期35卷 435-444页

作者： Marco Y. T. LEUNG Wen ZHOU Chi-Ming SHUN Pak-Wai CHAN Guy Carpenter Asia-pacific Climate Impact Center School of Energy and Environment City University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China Hong Kong Observatory Hong Kong China

This study identifies the atmospheric circulation features that are favorable for the occurrence of low-level turbulence at Hong Kong International Airport [below 1600 feet （around 500 m）]. By using LIDAR data at the airport, turbulence and nonturbulence cases are selected. It is found that the occurrence of turbulence is significantly related to the strength of the southerly wind at 850 hPa over the South China coast. On the other hand, the east-west wihd at this height demonstrates a weak relation to the occurrence. This suggests that turbulence is generated by flow passing Lantau Island from the south. The southerly wind also transports moisture from the South China Sea to Hong Kong, reducing local stability. This is favorable for the development of strong turbulence. It is also noted that the strong southerly wind during the occurrence of low-level turbulence is contributed by an anomalous zonal gradient of geopotential in the lower troposphere over the South China Sea. This gradient is caused by the combination of variations at different timescales. These are the passage of synoptic extratropical cyclones and anticyclones and the intraseasonal variation in the western north pacific subtropical high. The seasonal variation in geopotential east of the Tibetan Plateau leads to a seasonal change in meridional wind, by which the frequency of low-level turbulence is maximized in spring and minimized in autumn.

关键词： LIDAR temperate cyclone and anticyclone western north pacific subtropical high seasonal cycle topography effect

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Interannual Meridional Displacement of the East Asian Upper-tropospheric Jet Stream in Summer

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005年第2期22卷 199-211页

作者：林中达陆日宇 Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100080 Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100039 Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100080

On the interannual timescale, the meridional displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream (EAJS) is significantly associated with the rainfall anomalies in East Asia in summer. In this study, using the data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis-2 from 1979 to 2002, the authors investigate the interannual variations of the EAJS's meridional displacement in summer and their associations with the variations of the South Asian high (SAH) and the western north pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), which are dominant circulation features in the upper and lower troposhere, respectively. The result from an EOF analysis shows that the meridional displacement is the most remarkable feature of the interannual variations of the EAJS in each month of summer and in summer as a whole. A composite analysis indicates that the summer (June-July-August, JJA) EAJS index, which is intended to depict the interannual meridional displacement of the EAJS, is not appropriate because the anomalies of the zonal wind at 200 hPa (U200) in July and August only, rather than in June, significantly contribute to the summer EAJS index. Thus, the index for each month in summer is defined according to the location of the EAJS core in each month. Composite analyses based on the monthly indexes show that corresponding to the monthly equatorward displacement of the EAJS, the South Asian high (SAH) extends southeastward clearly in July and August, and the western north pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) withdraws southward in June and August.

关键词： East Asian jet stream western north pacific subtropical high South Asian high interannual variations meridional displacement

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Impacts of Two Types of northward Jumps of the East Asian Upper-tropospheric Jet Stream in Midsummer on Rainfall in Eastern China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第4期30卷 1224-1234页

作者：林中达 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream （EAJS） typically jumps north of 45~N in midsummer. These annual northward jumps are mostly classified into two dominant types： the first type corresponds to the enhanced westerly to the north of the EAJS＇s axis （type A）, while the second type is related to the weakened westerly within the EAJS＇s axis （type B）. In this study, the impacts of these two types of northward jumps on rainfall in eastern China are investigated. Our results show that rainfall significantly increases in northern northeast China and decreases in the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys, as well as in north China, during the type A jump. As a result of the type B jump, rainfall is enhanced in north China and suppressed in the Yangtze River valley. The changes in rainfall in eastern China during these two types of northward jumps are mainly caused by the northward shifts of the ascending air flow that is directly related to the EAJS. Concurrent with the type A （B） jump, the EAJS-related ascending branch moves from the Yangtze-Huai River valley to northern northeast （north） China when the EAJS＇s axis jumps from 40~N to 55~N （50~N）. Meanwhile, the type A jump also strengthens the northeast Asian low in the lower troposphere, leading to more moisture transport to northern northeast China. The type B jump, however, induces a northwestward extension of the lower-tropospheric western north pacific subtropical high and more moisture transport to north China.

关键词： northward jump East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream eastern China rainfall northeast Asian low western north pacific subtropical high

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