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Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

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Journal of Arid Land 2023年第2期15卷 145-163页

作者： XIE Yuxi ZENG Weihua QIU Jie School of Environment Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology Chinese Academy of SciencesQinghai 810008China Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and EnvironmentNanjing 210042China

water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of *** work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future *** addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning *** the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical ***,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the *** this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning *** also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental *** selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–*** found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some *** result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river *** 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water ***,through a sensitiv

关键词： water risk early warning system water environmental carrying capacity prosperity index water management North Canal(Beiyun River)

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water Shortage risk Assessment in the Haihe River Basin, China

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Journal of Resources and Ecology 2011年第4期2卷 362-369页

作者：张士锋孟秀敬华东陈俊旭李九一张永勇夏军中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室北京100101

This paper studies water balance in the Haihe River Basin, China and assesses water shortage risk for the period 1994–2007. The authors identify that there is a water shortage problem in this area and propose that the non-intake water consumption （NIWC） is a very important water balance element. The NIWC in the Haihe River Basin flow is 5.91×109m3 in normal years. It was concluded from our evaluation that the water shortage risk during 1994–2007 was very high. Using international water risk assessment theory, multiyear risk indicators in Haihe River Basin can be calculated. water risk rate, resiliency, stability, and vulnerability for the Haihe River Basin for the period 1994–2007 were 0.786, 0.000, 0.154 and 0.173 respectively. With the use of counter-force factors and adoption of different priorities to different water consumers, the water shortage risk can be decreased. The integrated water shortage risk indicators of the Haihe River Basin are 0.095–0.328. In this study, water availability from the South-North water Diversion Project is also considered. By the year 2014, about 5×109m3 of water will be diverted from the Yangtse River, and the water shortage risk in the Haihe River Basin will drop from 0.229–0.297 to 0.152–0.234 under an inflow water frequency of 50%–75%. However, a risk of water shortage in this area will persist.

关键词： water risk assessment water shortage Haihe River Basin non-intake water consumption

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