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Research on prediction and Early Warning of A-Share Market volatility Based on HAR-Type Models

Journal of Systems Science and Information 2023年第6期11卷 671-690页

作者： Zhaohao WEI Jichang DONG Zhi DONG School of Economics and Management University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

Based on the different premium volatility characteristics of various systematic factors in the A-share market, this paper constructs six representative high-frequency volatility prediction models that consider multiple complex risk structures. On this basis, a detailed comparative analysis of the differences in volatility characteristics among various factors is conducted, and the optimal prediction and early warning framework for the A-share market is proposed. Research shows that: 1) The volatility research results only for individual market indexes are not universally representative. 2) The fluctuation characteristics among different systematic factors and their respective optimal prediction model frameworks generally have significant differences, that is, there is no single fixed combination of model parameters. 3) Complex risk characteristics such as long memory, measurement errors, and high-frequency jump fluctuations obviously exist in the A-share market. The optimal forecast and early warning framework for the A-share market can be constructed by a combination of models that consider one or more of the above risk characteristics. The above conclusions have important practical reference value for the risk warning and prevention of the A-share market and the formulation of related policies.

关键词： volatility prediction high-frequency data factor model HAR-type model

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