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Ecological transitions in Xinjiang, China:Unraveling the impact of climate change on vegetation dynamics(1990–2020)

Journal of Geographical Sciences 2024年第6期34卷 1039-1064页

作者： HAO Haichao YAO Junqiang CHEN Yaning XU Jianhua LI Zhi DUAN Weili Sadaf ISMAIL WANG Guiling Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science(Ministry of Education) School of Geographic SciencesEast China Normal UniversityShanghai200241China Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability Kyoto UniversityYoshida-Nakaadachi 1Sakyo-kuKyoto 606-8306Japan Field Scientific Experiment Base of Akdala Atmospheric Background Institute of Desert MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationUrumqi 830011China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid LandsXinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyCASUrumqi 830011China School of Geographic Science Nantong UniversityNantong 226007JiangsuChina

For the past several decades, climate change has been driving vegetation dynamics in arid regions worldwide. This study investigates vegetation dynamics and their links to climate from 1990 to 2020 in Xinjiang, China, using data from 30-m resolution land use and cover change, remote sensing, and climate reanalysis. Our approach encompasses a range of analytical techniques, including transfer matrix analysis, modeling, correlation, regression,and trend analysis. During the study period, there were major vegetation conversions from grassland to forestland in the mountains, and from cropland to grassland in the plains. Climate change emerged as an important trigger of these changes, as evidenced by the increase in net primary productivity in most vegetation types, except for cropland-grassland and grassland-cropland conversions. Precipitation and soil moisture were the most influential climatic factors, contributing 15.1% and 15.2%, respectively, to natural vegetation changes.The study also found that evapotranspiration serves as a key mechanism for moisture dissipation in the hydrological cycle of vegetation dynamics. The interplay between precipitation,soil moisture, and evapotranspiration is a critical pattern of climatic influence that shapes vegetation dynamics across zones of intersection, increase, decrease, and change. These insights are invaluable for informing vegetation conservation and development strategies in Xinjiang and other similar environments facing climate-driven ecological transitions.

关键词： climate change ecological transitions LUCC NPP efficiency vegetation dynamics Xinjiang

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vegetation dynamics and its response to climate change during the past 2000 years in the Altai Mountains,northwestern China

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2022年第2期16卷 513-522页

作者： Dongliang ZHANG Yunpeng YANG Min RAN Bo LAN Hongyan ZHAO Qi LIU State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXi’an 710061China College of Environment and Planning Henan UniversityKaifeng 475004China Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions(Ministry of Education) Henan UniversityKaifeng 475004China School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering Chongqing Three Gorges UniversityChongqing 404000China School of Earth Science Northeast Normal UniversityChangchun 130024China College of Resource and Environmental Sciences Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830046China

Over the past 2000 years,a high-resolution pollen record from the Yushenkule Peat(46°45′-46°57′N,90°46′-90°61′E,2374 m a.s.l.)in the south-eastern Altai Mountains of northwestern China has been used to explore the changes in vegetation and climate.The regional vegetation has been dominated by alpine meadows revealed from pollen diagrams over the past 2000 years.The pollen-based climate was warm and wet during the Roman Warm Period(0-520 AD),cold and wet during the Dark Age Cold Period(520-900 AD),warm and wet during the Medieval Warm Period(900-1300 AD),and cold and dry during the Little Ice Age(1300-1850 AD).Combined with other pollen data from the Altai Mountains,we found that the percentage of arboreal pollen showed a reduced trend along the NW-SE gradient with decreasing moisture and increasing climatic continentality of the Altai Mountains over the past 2000 years;this is consistent with modern distributions of taiga forests.We also found that the taiga(Pinus forest)have spread slightly,while the steppe(Artemisia,Poaceae and Chenopodiaceae)have recovered significantly in the Altai Mountains over the past 2000 years.In addition,the relatively warm-wet climate may promote high grassland productivity and southward expansion of steppe,which favors the formation of Mongol political and military power.

关键词： pollen analysis vegetation dynamics past 2000 years Altai mountains northwestern China

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Analysis and prediction of global vegetation dynamics:past variations and future perspectives

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Journal of Forestry Research 2023年第2期34卷 317-332页

作者： Guangchao Li Wei Chen Liqiang Mu Xuepeng Zhang Pengshuai Bi Zhe Wang Zhen Yang College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering China University of Mining and TechnologyBeijing 100083People’s Republic of China School of Forestry Northeast Forestry UniversityHarbin 150040People’s Republic of China College of Information Science and Engineering Henan University of TechnologyZhengzhou 450001People’s Republic of China

Spatiotemporal dynamic vegetation changes affect global climate change,energy balances and the hydrological cycle.Predicting these dynamics over a long time series is important for the study and analysis of global environmental change.Based on leaf area index(LAI),climate,and radiation flux data of past and future scenarios,this study looked at historical dynamic changes in global vegetation LAI,and proposed a coupled multiple linear regression and improved gray model(CMLRIGM)to predict future global LAI.The results show that CMLRIGM predictions are more accurate than results predicted by the multiple linear regression(MLR)model or the improved gray model(IGM)alone.This coupled model can effectively resolve the problem posed by the underestimation of annual average of global vegetation LAI predicted by MLR and the overestimate predicted by IGM.From 1981 to 2018,the annual average of LAI in most areas covered by global vegetation(71.4%)showed an increase with a growth rate of 0.0028 a-1;of this area,significant increases occurred in 34.42%of the total area.From 2016 to 2060,the CMLRIGM model has predicted that the annual average global vegetation LAI will increase,accounting for approximately 68.5%of the global vegetation coverage,with a growth rate of 0.004 a-1.The growth rate will increase in the future scenario,and it may be related to the driving factors of the high emission scenario used in this study.This research may provide a basis for simulating spatiotemporal dynamic changes in global vegetation conditions over a long time series.

关键词： vegetation dynamics LAI CMLRIGM Prediction Climate Radiation

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Improving Simulations of vegetation dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau:Role of Atmospheric Forcing Data and Spatial Resolution

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第7期39卷 1115-1132,I0018-I0022页

作者： Zhijie KANG Bo QIU Zheng XIANG Ye LIU Zhiqiang LIN Weidong GUO School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210046China Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Washington 99354USA Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province School of Atmospheric SciencesChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China

The efficacy of vegetation dynamics simulations in offline land surface models(LSMs)largely depends on the quality and spatial resolution of meteorological forcing data.In this study,the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing Data(PMFD)and the high spatial resolution and upscaled China Meteorological Forcing Data(CMFD)were used to drive the Simplified Simple Biosphere model version 4/Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including dynamics(SSiB4/TRIFFID)and investigate how meteorological forcing datasets with different spatial resolutions affect simulations over the Tibetan Plateau(TP),a region with complex topography and sparse observations.By comparing the monthly Leaf Area Index(LAI)and Gross Primary Production(GPP)against observations,we found that SSiB4/TRIFFID driven by upscaled CMFD improved the performance in simulating the spatial distributions of LAI and GPP over the TP,reducing RMSEs by 24.3%and 20.5%,respectively.The multi-year averaged GPP decreased from 364.68 gC m^(-2)yr^(-1)to 241.21 gC m^(-2)yr^(-1)with the percentage bias dropping from 50.2%to-1.7%.When using the high spatial resolution CMFD,the RMSEs of the spatial distributions of LAI and GPP simulations were further reduced by 7.5%and 9.5%,respectively.This study highlights the importance of more realistic and high-resolution forcing data in simulating vegetation growth and carbon exchange between the atmosphere and biosphere over the TP.

关键词： SSiB4 meteorological forcing data vegetation dynamics spatial resolution Tibetan Plateau

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vegetation dynamics and its response to driving factors in typical karst regions,Guizhou Province,China

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2021年第1期15卷 167-183页

作者： Xiaocha WEI Qiuwen ZHOU Ya LUO Mingyong CAI Xu ZHOU Weihong YAN Dawei PENG Ji ZHANG School of Geography and Environmental Science Guizhou Normal UniversityGuiyang 550025China Satellite Environment Center of MEP Beijing 100094China

Analyzing the vegetation dynamics and its response to driving factors provides a vital reference for understanding regional ecological processes and ecosystem services.However,this issue has been poorly understood in karst areas.Taking Guizhou Province as a case study,based on the Normalized-Difference vegetation Index of the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies and on meteorological data sets during 1982-2015,we evaluated vegetation dynamics and its response to climatic factors and human activities.We used several methods:the Mann-Kendall test,rescaled range analysis,partial correlation analysis,and residual analysis.The results are as follows:1)the mean annual Normalized-Difference vegetation Index was 0.46 and exhibited a significant increasing trend with a variation rate of 0.01/10a during 1982-2015 in Guizhou Province.The vegetation cover showed was spatially heterogeneous:High vegetation cover was distributed mainly in the center and western margin of the study area,while the other parts of the study area mainly distributed with low vegetation cover,although the vegetation cover was higher in the nonkarst areas than in the karst areas;2)in general,the climate was getting warmer and drier in Guizhou Province during 1982-2015.vegetation cover was positively correlated with temperature and negatively correlated with precipitation.Compared to precipitation,temperature was the dominant climatic factor impacting vegetation dynamics;3)'large-scale ecological restoration projects have obviously increased vegetation cover in Guizhou Province in recent years.The contribution of human activities to vegetation changes was 76%,while the contribution of climatic factors was 24%.In summary,compared to natural forces such as climatic factors and geographic parameters,human activities were the main factor driving the vegetation dynamics in Guizhou Province.

关键词： vegetation dynamics climate change human activities karst area

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Impact of anthropogenic activities on vegetation dynamics in a reservoir area: model establishment and a case study of Longkaikou Reservoir in China

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Journal of Mountain Science 2021年第7期18卷 1823-1836页

作者： YANG Wei PEI Jun CAI Yan-peng YI Yu-jun State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation School of EnvironmentBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Binjiang Branch Agency of Ecology and Environment of HangzhouHangzhou 310053China

vegetation in hot and arid valleys is a crucial indicator of ecosystem health,but is vulnerable to human activities and environmental change.Using the Longkaikou Reservoir in the Jinsha River in southwestern China as a case study,we developed a spatially explicit model that combined the plant growth,fruiting,seed dispersal,and seed germination stages to reveal the potential impact of multiple human activities(reservoir construction,logging,grazing,and aerial seeding) on the vegetation dynamics of Dodonaea viscosa and Pinus yunnanensis.After reservoir construction,the grassland area of 68 km^(2) in 2003 decreased to 24 km^(2) in 2018,replaced by forest,shrubland,and bodies of water,and the precipitation increased during the dry season,which indicated the improvement of the local plant and soil environment.Our model predicted that when soil moisture decreased by more than 20% compared to current levels,the area of D.viscosa increased greatly at low elevations;however,when at higher soil moisture,P.yunnanensis would occupy more of the study area.Logging and grazing would slightly change the spatial pattern of vegetation and delay P.yunnanensis communities from achieving stability by directly reducing plant biomass.Countermeasures such as aerial seeding would increase the total area by 13.13 km^(2) and 8.09 km^(2) of two plants,respectively,and accelerate the stabilization of plant communities.The effects of multiple human activities on vegetation may counteract each other;for example,logging decreased the P.yunnanensis area whereas aerial seeding increased it,and plant biomass changed in response to this pressure.Given the complex relationships between vegetation and human impacts,our study provides a scientific basis for vegetation restoration and ecological security in this hot and arid valley.

关键词： Spatially explicit model vegetation dynamics Human activities Longkaikou Reservoir

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dynamics of mediterranean pine forests reforested after fires

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Journal of Forestry Research 2023年第2期34卷 345-354页

作者： Álvaro Enríquez-de-Salamanca Departamento de Biodiversidad Ecología y EvoluciónFacultad de Ciencias BiológicasUniversidad Complutense de MadridMadridSpain Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental San Lorenzo de El EscorialSpain

Forest fires are frequent under a Mediterranean climate and have shaped the landscape of the region but are currently altered by human action and climate change.Fires have historically conditioned the presence of pine forests,depending on severity and forest regeneration.Regeneration of Mediterranean pine forests is not always successful,and a transition to shrublands or stands of resprouting species can occur,even after reforestation.This study analyses vegetation changes in two Mediterranean pine forests after severe fires and both reforested.The pines had difficulty to regenerate,even despite post-fire reforestation.The problem is the difficulty of young seedlings to survive,possibly due to increased summer drought.Problems are greater in pine species at the limit of their ecological tolerance:Pinus pinea had a much better recovery success while P.sylvestris and P.nigra virtually disappeared.Pinus pinaster had intermediate results but recovery was generally poor.A transition has taken place in many burnt areas to scrubland or to thickets of the resprouting Quercus rotundifolia,although it is not possible to know whether they will evolve into forests or remain in a sub climatic state.Resprouting species may increase fire severity but facilitates post-fire colonisation.Post-fire recovery difficulties are closely linked to issues of natural regeneration.Fire could initiate the disappearance of pine forests,but even in the absence of fire they may disappear in the long-term due to the lack of regeneration.Action is needed to increase the resilience of these forests,ensuring natural regeneration,and incorporating resprouting species in the understorey.

关键词： Mediterranean region Pine forests Post-fi re recovery vegetation dynamics Wildfi re transitions

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Numerical simulation of the effects of global warming on vegetation in Asia

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第5期13卷 688-699页

作者： Zheng-Qiu ZHANG Pan-Mao ZHAI Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China

The response of vegetation to global warming is closely related to human living environment,and uncertainty in understanding the response remains.This study aims to investigate the effects of CO_(2),temperature and precipitation changes under global warming on natural vegetation in Asia.The biophysical/dynamic vegetation model SSiB4/TRIFFID was employed to perform numerical experiments under different climate scenarios for Asia using the Princeton global forcing dataset(1948–2006).The results showed that precipitation and CO_(2) were the key factors for vegetation growth.The effect of temperature on natural vegetation varied among the study regions.Generally,an increase in temperature was conducive to vegetation growth in eastern Asia,but not in the arid and semi-arid areas of western Asia.In arid and semi-arid areas or in the vicinity of desert,the forcing effects of temperature,precipitation and CO_(2) were more remarkable,which led to a noticeable change in the area of bare land.In terms of the distribution of vegetation species,the above forcing had a greater impact on shrubs,C3 grasses and C4 plants,but less of an impact on broadleaf and coniferous forest.It was also found that,although there was a notable positive correlation between precipitation and vegetation leaf area index in northern high latitudes,the vegetation cover did not increase with precipitation,which was countered by the negative effect of surface cooling in summer.

关键词： Global warming Temperature Precipitation CO_(2) SSiB4/TRIFFID Model simulation vegetation dynamics

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Monitoring vegetation drought in the nine major river basins of China based on a new developed vegetation Drought Condition Index

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Journal of Arid Land 2023年第12期15卷 1421-1438页

作者： ZHAO Lili LI Lusheng LI Yanbin ZHONG Huayu ZHANG Fang ZHU Junzhen DING Yibo School of Water Conservancy North China University of Water Resources and Electric PowerZhengzhou 450046China College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China University International College Macao University of Science and TechnologyMacao 999078China Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co. Ltd.Zhengzhou 450003China

The effect of global climate change on vegetation growth is variable.Timely and effective monitoring of vegetation drought is crucial for understanding its dynamics and mitigation,and even regional protection of ecological environments.In this study,we constructed a new drought index(i.e.,vegetation Drought Condition Index(VDCI))based on precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,soil moisture and Normalized Difference vegetation Index(NDVI)data,to monitor vegetation drought in the nine major river basins(including the Songhua River and Liaohe River Basin,Haihe River Basin,Yellow River Basin,Huaihe River Basin,Yangtze River Basin,Southeast River Basin,Pearl River Basin,Southwest River Basin and Continental River Basin)in China at 1-month–12-month(T1–T12)time scales.We used the Pearson's correlation coefficients to assess the relationships between the drought indices(the developed VDCI and traditional drought indices including the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),Standardized Soil Moisture Index(SSMI)and Self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index(scPDSI))and the NDVI at T1–T12 time scales,and to estimate and compare the lag times of vegetation response to drought among different drought indices.The results showed that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration have positive and major influences on vegetation in the nine major river basins at T1–T6 time scales.Soil moisture shows a lower degree of negative influence on vegetation in different river basins at multiple time scales.Potential evapotranspiration shows a higher degree of positive influence on vegetation,and it acts as the primary influencing factor with higher area proportion at multiple time scales in different river basins.The VDCI has a stronger relationship with the NDVI in the Songhua River and Liaohe River Basin,Haihe River Basin,Yellow River Basin,Huaihe River Basin and Yangtze River Basin at T1–T4 time scales.In general,the VDCI is more sensitive(with shorter lag time of vegetation response to drought)than the tra

关键词： vegetation drought vegetation Drought Condition Index(VDCI) Normalized Difference vegetation Index(NDVI) vegetation dynamics climate change China

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Spatio-temporal variations in trends of vegetation and drought changes in relation to climate variability from 1982 to 2019 based on remote sensing data from East Asia

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2023年第10期22卷 3193-3208页

作者： Shahzad ALI Abdul BASIT Muhammad UMAIR Tyan Alice MAKANDA Fahim Ullah KHAN Siqi SHI NI Jian College of Chemistry and Life Sciences Zhejiang Normal UniversityJinhua 321004P.R.China Department of Agriculture Hazara UniversityMansehra 21120Pakistan Department of Computer Science University of PeshawarPeshawar 25000Pakistan Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation(ITC) University of TwenteEnschede 7500 AENetherlands

Studying the significant impacts on vegetation of drought due to global warming is crucial in order to understand its dynamics and interrelationships with temperature,rainfall,and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).These factors are linked to excesses drought frequency and severity on the regional scale,and their effect on vegetation remains an important topic for climate change study.East Asia is very sensitive and susceptible to climate change.In this study,we examined the effect of drought on the seasonal variations of vegetation in relation to climate variability and determined which growing seasons are most vulnerable to drought risk;and then explored the spatio-temporal evolution of the trend in drought changes in East Asia from 1982 to 2019.The data were studied using a series of several drought indexes,and the data were then classified using a heat map,box and whisker plot analysis,and principal component analysis.The various drought indexes from January to August improved rapidly,except for vegetation health index(VHI)and temperature condition index(TCI).While these indices were constant in September,they increased again in October,but in December,they showed a descending trend.The seasonal and monthly analysis of the drought indexes and the heat map confirmed that the East Asian region suffered from extreme droughts in 1984,1993,2007,and 2012among the study years.The distribution of the trend in drought changes indicated that more severe drought occurred in the northwestern region than in the southeastern area of East Asia.The drought tendency slope was used to describe the changes in drought events during 1982–2019 in the study region.The correlations among monthly precipitation anomaly percentage(NAP),NDVI,TCI,vegetation condition index(VCI),temperature vegetation drought index(TVDI),and VHI indicated considerably positive correlations,while considerably negative correlations were found among the three pairs of NDVI and VHI,TVDI and VHI,and NDVI and TCI.This ecological and climatic mechanism

关键词： climate change drought severity vegetation dynamics heat mapping TVDI spatial correlation East Asia

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