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How Do urbanization and urban Agglomeration Affect CO2 Emissions in South Asia? Testing Non-Linearity Puzzle with Dynamic STIRPAT Model

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Chinese Journal of urban and environmental Studies 2020年第1期8卷 37-73页

作者： Hongzhong FAN Shujahat Haider HASHMI Yasir HABIB Minhaj ALI School of Economics Huazhong University of Science and Technology School of Management and Economics Beijing Institute of Technology School of Economics Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

The issue of urbanization has gained much importance over the last few decades due to its significant influence on economic growth and environmental quality, especially in developing countries. The non-linearity puzzle has been a long-debated issue, and prior studies provide mixed evidence. This study addresses the issue of urbanization using the measure of urban agglomeration and investigates the non-linear relation between urbanization and CO2emissions at the regional level. The South Asian region represents approximately one-fourth of the world population and its urbanization needs to be addressed properly. This paper uses the annual data over the period of 1974–2014 for four South Asian countries, namely, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Nepal. The panel cointegration tests establish the long-run relation between urbanization, urban agglomeration, economic growth, trade openness, energy consumption, financial development,and CO2emissions. The fully modified ordinary least squares（FMOLS） model further confirms the existence of environmental Kuznets Curve（EKC） in South Asia. Moreover, urbanization has an inverted U-shaped relation with CO2emissions, while urban agglomeration has a Ushaped nexus with CO2emissions for overall sample. The bidirectional causal relationship has also been confirmed between urbanization and CO2emissions, between urban agglomeration and CO2emissions, between financial development and CO2emissions both in the long-run and short-run. On the other hand, unidirectional causality runs from economic growth, trade openness, and energy consumption to CO2emissions in the long-run. The rising trend of urban agglomeration in metropolitan cities in South Asia is adversely affecting the environment. Thecurrent study has implications for policymakers and respective governments to adhere to more stringent urban planning.

关键词： urbanization urban agglomeration CO 2 emissions ecological modernization theory urban environmental transition theory and compact city theory

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