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Typhoon Track,Intensity,and Structure:From Theory to Prediction

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第11期39卷 1789-1799页

作者： Zhe-Min TAN Lili LEI Yuqing WANG Yinglong XU Yi ZHANG Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather Ministry of Educationand School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210063China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric SciencesSchool of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaii 96822USA National Meteorological Center of CMA Beijing 100081China

To improve understanding of essential aspects that influence forecasting of tropical cyclones(TCs),the National Key Research and Development Program,Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China conducted a five-year project titled“Key Dynamic and Thermodynamic Processes and Prediction for the Evolution of Typhoon Intensity and Structure”(KPPT).Through this project,new understandings of TC intensification,including outer rainbanddriven secondary eyewall formation and the roles of boundary layer dynamics and vertical wind shear,and improvements to TC data assimilation with integrated algorithms and adaptive localizations are achieved.To promote a breakthrough in TC intensity and structure forecasting,a new paradigm for TC evolution dynamics(i.e.,the correlations,interactions,and error propagation among the triangle of TC track,intensity,and structure)is proposed;and an era of dynamic-constrained,big-data driven,and strongly coupled data assimilation at the subkilometer scale and seamless prediction is expected.

关键词： typhoons track intensity structure theories predictions

SOME SPECIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TRACK AND INTENSITY OF typhoons OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2017年第3期6卷 82-93页

作者： TARASHA KHURANA S.K.BHATTACHARYA S.D.KOTAL Netaji Subhas Institute of Technology India Meteorological Department NWP Division

Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC) Best Track data from 1995 to 2014 are processed to examine some specific patterns and trends shown by typhoons over the Western North Pacific. With a multivariate dataset of 588 TC cases in hand, we carry out a sub-domain analysis by dividing the Western North Pacific region into domains of 2°x2° and find the preferred regions of genesis, favourable direction of movement, steep recurvature, rapid intensification, and rapid decay. The region from longitude 132°E to 134°E and latitude 16°N to 18°N showed the highest number of cases(19) for rapid intensification(RI) and a general pattern is found that the RI systems occurred mostly in the later half of the year with a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) index. Similarly, the domain from longitude 114°E to 116°E and latitude 26°N to 28°N had the highest probability of 0.857 for rapid decay. The probabilities of recurvature for each sub-domain were calculated for angles 30°, 45°, 60°, 90°, 120° and 150°. The sub-domain around longitude 118°E and latitude 12°N had the steepest recurve of 168.69°. It also had a high probability of 0.714 for a recurvature of greater than 90°. The most taken direction of movement of typhoons around the Western North Pacific were analysed in different ways and along the 16 points of compass, the direction from 270° to 292.5° was found to be the most preferred direction of movement.

关键词： typhoons Western North Pacific genesis track recurvature intensity rapid intensification rapid decay sub-domain PDO index

SUMMARY OF RETIRED typhoons IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2012年第1期1卷 19-25页

作者： LEI XIAOTU ZHOU XIAO Shanghai Typhoon Institute/China Meteorological Administration

Names have been given to tropical cyclones which raging through the western North Pacific Ocean since 1947.However,considering the disastrous impact or some extreme uniqueness quite a few typhoons have their names retired from the list.This study conducts preliminary analysis and summarizes the frequency,impact and also explains why they were retired.It shows that a total of 31 typhoons(in the western North Pacific Ocean)have been removed from the list from 1947 on,most of which retired after 2000 amounting to 20 as against 11 before 2000.Collectively,these retired typhoons have made 16843 people killed or missing and caused a heavy property loss of$45.7 billion,averaging 543 fatalities and property loss of$1.69 billion each(capping at 8000 and$10 billion respectively).Most typhoons were retired due to huge personnel and property loss.However,some others were removed for their unique feature such as developed near equator,extremely long typhoon tracks,etc.Moreover,there were some retired due to neither of the above reasons.In this connection,the study also discusses the standard of retiring typhoons.

关键词： typhoons disastrous impact the standard of retiring typhoons

Formation and Prevention of Hurricanes,typhoons and Cyclones

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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(B) 2018年第8期7卷 291-297页

作者： Cuixiang Zhong Department of Physics Jiangxi Normal UniversityNanchang 330022China

Hurricanes,typhoons and cyclones are the most destructive weather systems.In order to mitigate the disasters caused by these storms,it is necessary to clarify the cause and activity rule of these storms.However,the formation of hurricanes,typhoons and cyclones as well as the cause of their path and strength changes still remains the major unsolved problems in today’s world.Fortunately,the author has recently studied the formation and activity of polar vortices,therefore can reveal the formation and current driving warm core structure of hurricanes,typhoons and cyclones,which plays an important guiding role in preventing major disasters caused by them.The author finds that all hurricanes,typhoons and cyclones are formed by polar vortices pulled by the moon.In order to prevent hurricanes from raging along the east coast of the United States or cyclones from setting wildfires in western United States,the potentially dangerous vortex genesises near Baffin Island and those over northeastern Siberia should be monitored and weakened in the month before they prevail;in order to prevent typhoons from ravaging the Northwest Pacific or South China Sea,the potentially dangerous vortex genesises over northeastern Siberia should be monitored and weakened in the month before they prevail;in order to prevent cyclones from raging over the South Indian Ocean or the Bay of Bengal,the potentially dangerous vortex genesises in Antarctic should be monitored and weakened in the month before they prevail;in order to avoid abnormal cold in late winter or early spring in the Northern Hemisphere,the potentially dangerous Arctic cold vortex genesises near Baffin Island and those over northeastern Siberia should be monitored and weakened in the month before they prevail.

关键词： Polar vortex hurricanes typhoons cyclones formation prevention climate change

Field measurement on wind characteristic and buffeting response of the Runyang Suspension Bridge during typhoon Matsa

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Science China(Technological Sciences) 2009年第5期52卷 1354-1362页

作者： WANG Hao LI AiQun GUO Tong XIE Jing College of Civil Engineering Southeast UniversityNanjing 210096China

Field measurement on wind characteristic and buffeting response of existing bridge is of great value to the development of bridge wind engineering,and the structural health monitoring system(SHMS) em-ployed in many long-span bridges provide a research basis for the field measurement.In order to pro-vide reliable basis for wind resistant evaluation of Runyang Suspension Bridge(RSB),two anemome-ters and 85 accelerometers were installed in the SHMS of RSB.In August 2005,Typhoon Matsa crossed over Jiangsu,the SHMS timely recorded the typhoon and structural vibration responses.In this paper by using the time-frequency technique and statistical theory,the recorded data were analyzed to obtain the strong wind characteristics,the buffeting response characteristics of the cable and deck,and the variation of buffeting response RMS versus wind speed.Results obtained in this study can be em-ployed to validate the credibility of current buffeting response analysis theory techniques,and provide reference values for wind resistant evaluation of other long-span bridges.

关键词： suspension bridges typhoons buffeting response field measurement structural health monitoring system(SHMS)

Verification of the 2019 GloSea5 Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecast for East China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 917-925页

作者： Joanne CAMP Philip E.BETT Nicola GOLDING Chris D.HEWITT Timothy D.MITCHELL Adam A.SCAIFE Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX 13PBUK University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterDevon EX44QFUK

A prototype climate service was developed and trialled in early 2019 to provide seasonal forecast of the June–July–August(JJA) tropical cyclone(TC) landfall risk for the East China region ahead of the forthcoming typhoon season.Test forecasts were produced in both March and April 2019 and a final forecast was released to the China Meteorological Administration(CMA) on 1 May 2019. The trial service was produced by using the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system(GloSea5), and a forecast of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) index was used to infer the TC landfall risk based on a simple linear regression between historical model WPSH indices and observed TC landfalls in East China. The forecast method shows significant skill for forecasting the JJA TC landfall risk in East China with up to three-month lead time, with the greatest skill for predictions initialized in May. The 2019 forecast provided good guidance of the near-average TC activity observed in East China in JJA 2019. Success of the forecast adds confidence to an improved climate service ahead of the 2020 typhoon season.

关键词： seasonal forecasting typhoons tropical cyclones(TCs) landfall risk East China western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)

Tropical Cyclones and Polar Lows: Velocity, Size, and Energy Scales, and Relation to the 26℃ Cyclone Origin Criteria

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2009年第3期26卷 585-598页

作者： G.S.GOLITSYN A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics Russian Academy of SciencesMoscow 119017Russian Federation

The goal of this paper is to quantitatively formulate some necessary conditions for the development of intense atmospheric vortices. Specifically, these criteria are discussed for tropical cyclones （TC） and polar lows （PL） by using bulk formulas for fluxes of momentum, sensible heating, and latent heating between the ocean and the atmosphere. The velocity scale is used in two forms：（1） as expressed through the buoyancy flux b and the Coriolis parameter Ic for rotating fluids convection, and （2） as expressed with the cube of velocity times the drag coefficient through the formula for total kinetic energy dissipation in the atmospheric boundary layer. In the quasistationary case the dissipation equals the generation of the energy. In both cases the velocity scale can be expressed through temperature and humidity differences between the ocean and the atmosphere in terms of the reduced gravity, and both forms produce quite comparable velocity scales. Using parameters b and Ic, we can form scales of the area and, by adding the mass of a unit air column, a scale of the total kinetic energy as well. These scales nicely explain the much smaller size of a PL, as compared to a TC, and the total kinetic energy of a TC is of the order 1018 - 1019 J. It will be shown that wind of 33 m s^-1 is produced when the total enthalpy fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere are about 700 W m-2 for a TC and 1700 W m-2 for a PL, in association with the much larger role of the latent heat in the first case and the stricter geostrophic constraints and larger static stability in the second case. This replaces the mystical role of 26℃ as a criterion for TC origin. The buoyancy flux, a product of the reduced gravity and the wind speed, together with the atmospheric static stability, determines the rate of the penetrating convection. It is known from the observations that the formation time for a PL reaching an altitude of 5-6 km can be only a few hours, and a day, or even half a day, for a TC reaching 15-18 km. These two facts allow u

关键词： typhoons polar lows velocity size and energy scales cyclone origin criteria

Analysis of an Ensemble of High-Resolution WRF Simulations for the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Rammasun(2014)

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第2期37卷 187-210页

作者： Xun LI Noel EDAVIDSON Yihong DUAN Kevin JTORY Zhian SUN Qinbo CAI Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province China Meteorological AdministrationHaikouHainan 570203China Hainan Meteorological Services China Meteorological AdministrationHaikouHainan 570203China Research and Development Branch Bureau of MeteorologyMelbourne 3001Australia State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

Diagnostics are presented from an ensemble of high-resolution forecasts that differed markedly in their predictions of the rapid intensification(RI)of Typhoon Rammasun.We show that the basic difference stems from subtle differences in initializations of(a)500-850-h Pa environmental winds,and(b)midlevel moisture and ventilation.We then describe how these differences impact on the evolving convective organization,storm structure,and the timing of RI.As expected,ascent,diabatic heating and the secondary circulation near the inner-core are much stronger in the member that best forecasts the RI.The evolution of vortex cloudiness from this member is similar to the actual imagery,with the development of an inner cloud band wrapping inwards to form the eyewall.We present evidence that this structure,and hence the enhanced diabatic heating,is related to the tilt and associated dynamics of the developing inner-core in shear.For the most accurate ensemble member:(a)inhibition of ascent and a reduction in convection over the up-shear sector allow moistening of the boundary-layer air,which is transported to the down-shear sector to feed a developing convective asymmetry;(b)with minimal ventilation,undiluted clouds and moisture from the down-shear left quadrant are then wrapped inwards to the up-shear left quadrant to form the eyewall cloud;and(c)this process seems related to a critical down-shear tilt of the vortex from midlevels,and the vertical phase-locking of the circulation over up-shear quadrants.For the member that forecasts a much-delayed RI,these processes are inhibited by stronger vertical wind shear,initially resulting in poor vertical coherence of the circulation,lesser moisture and larger ventilation.Our analysis suggests that ensemble prediction is needed to account for the sensitivity of forecasts to a relatively narrow range of environmental wind shear,moisture and vortex inner-structure.

关键词： typhoons rapid intensification ensemble simulation spin-up processes ventilation vertical wind shear

Variations in Typhoon Landfalls over China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2006年第5期23卷 665-677页

作者： Emily A.FOGARTY James B. ELSNER Thomas H. JAGGER Kam-biu LIU Kin-sheun LOUIE Department of Geography The Florida State University TallahasseeFlorida Department of Anthropology and Geography The Louisiana State University Department of Public and Social Administration City University of Hong Kong

The interannual variability in typhoon landfalls over China is investigated using historical and modern records. For the purpose of substantiating and elaborating upon the claim of north to south variation in tropical cyclone activity over China, a north-to-south anti-correlation in yearly activity is confirmed in the historical cyclone records. When cyclone activity over the province of Guangdong is high （low）, it tends to be low （high） over the province of Fujian. A similar spatial variation is identified in the modern records using a factor analysis model, which delineates typhoon activity over the southern provinces of Guangdong and Hainan from the activity over the northern provinces of Fujian, Taiwan, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong. A landfall index of typhoon activity representing the degree to which each year follows this pattern of activity is used to identify correlated climate variables. A useful statistical regression model that includes sea-level pressure differences between Mongolia and western China and sea-surface temperature （SST） over the northwestern Pacific Ocean during the summer explains 26% of the interannual variability of the landfall index. It is suggested that a stronger than normal north-south pressure gradient increases the surface easterly wind flow over northern China： this, coupled with lower SST over the Pacific, favors typhoons taking a more westerly track toward southern China.

关键词： typhoons southern China historical record climate variables