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Estimation and Prediction of typhoons and Wave Overtopping in Qingdao, China

Journal of Ocean University of China 2020年第5期19卷 1017-1028页

作者： WANG Zhifeng LI Songtao HAO Yan MA Yan WU Kejian Shandong Province Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Qingdao Meteorological Bureau Qingdao 266003China College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China

This study aims to estimate and predict the impact of climate change on typhoons and wave overtopping during typhoon progresses in Qingdao, China. The SWAN wave model is used to simulate wave elements. The scale coefficients of wave overtopping are estimated using an empirical prediction formula. A total of 75 tropical cyclones affected Qingdao from 1949 to 2019. These tropical cyclones can be grouped into eight categories according to typhoon tracks. typhoon wind speed during Track G is projected to decrease, and those of the other seven typhoon progresses will increase by 0.35% – 0.75% in 2025, 0.69% – 1.5% in 2035, and 1.38% – 3.0% in 2055. The significant wave height and wave overtopping outside the bay are greater than those inside the bay. Among the 506 typical points selected, the maximum values of the significant wave height and wave overtopping inside the bay are mainly distributed in the range of 0 – 2 m and 0 – 60 m^3 km^(-1) s^(-1), respectively. The increments of the significant wave height and wave overtopping of Track F are most obvious. The significant wave height of Track F will increase by 50.5% in 2025, 51.8% in 2035, and 53.4% in 2055. In the 2℃ scenario, the maximum value of wave overtopping of Track F will increase by 21.9% in 2025, 24.3% in 2035, and 29.5% in 2055. In the 4℃ scenario, the maximum value of wave overtopping of Track F will increase by 21.9% in 2025, 24.3% in 2035, and 29.5% in 2055.

关键词： climate change typhoon wind typhoon wave wave overtopping Qingdao

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