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Model-based analysis of spatio-temporal changes in land use in Northeast China

Journal of Geographical Sciences 2016年第2期26卷 171-187页

作者：夏天吴文斌周清波 Peter H.VERBURG 余强毅杨鹏叶立明 Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & simulation Hubei Province/College of Urban & Environmental SciencesCentral China Normal University Key Laboratory of Agri–Informatics Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Institute for Environmental Studies VU University Amsterdam CAAS-UGent Joint Laboratory of Global Change and Food Security/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Department of Geology and Soil Sciences (WE13) Ghent University

Spatially explicit modeling techniques recently emerged as an alternative to monitor land use changes. This study adopted the well-known CLUE-S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model to analyze the spatio-temporal land use changes in a hot-spot in Northeast China(NEC). In total,13 driving factors were selected to statistically analyze the spatial relationships between biophysical and socioeconomic factors and individual land use types. These relationships were then used to simulate land use dynamic changes during 1980–2010 at a 1 km spatial resolution,and to capture the overall land use change patterns. The obtained results indicate that increases in cropland area in NEC were mainly distributed in the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain during 1980–2000,with a small reduction between 2000 and 2010. An opposite pattern was identified for changes in forest areas. Forest decreases were mainly distributed in the Khingan Mountains and the Changbai Mountains between 1980 and 2000,with a slight increase during 2000–2010. The urban areas have expanded to occupy surrounding croplands and grasslands,particularly after the year 2000. More attention is needed on the newly gained croplands,which have largely replaced wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain over the last decade. Land use change patterns identified here should be considered in future policy making so as to strengthen local eco-environmental security.

关键词： land use change CLUE-S Northeast China two-way simulation

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