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Change of tropical cyclone heat potential in Response to Global Warming

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第4期33卷 504-510页

作者： Ran LIU Changlin CHEN Guihua WANG State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Hangzhou 31O012

tropical cyclone heat potential （TCHP） in the ocean can affect tropical cyclone intensity and intensification. In this paper, TCHP change under global warming is presented based on 35 models from CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5）. As the upper ocean warms up, the TCHP of the global ocean is projected to increase by 140.6% in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 （＋4.5 W m 2 Representative Concentration Pathway） scenario, The increase is particularly significant in the western Pacific, northwestern Indian and western tropical Atlantic oceans. The increase of TCHP results from the ocean temperature warming above the depth of the 26~C isotherm （D26）, the deepening of D26, and the horizontal area expansion of SST above 26~C. Their contributions are 69.4%, 22.5% and 8.1%, respectively. Further, a suite of numerical experiments with an Ocean General Circulation Model （OGCM） is conducted to investigate the relative importance of wind stress and buoyancy forcing to the TCHP change under global warming. Results show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the TCHP change, while wind stress and sea surface salinity change are secondary.

关键词： tropical cyclone heat potential global warming CM1P5 OGCM

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Satellite derived upper ocean thermal structure and its application to tropical cyclone intensity forecasting in the Indian Ocean

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Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2015年第5期33卷 1219-1232页

作者：孙春健王喜冬崔晓健张晓爽张连新邵彩霞吴新荣付红丽李威 Key Laboratory of State Oceanic Administration for Marine Environmental Information Technology National Marine Data and Information ServiceState Oceanic Administration College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of China National University of Defense Technology

Upper ocean heat content is a factor critical to the intensity change of tropical cyclones(TCs). Because of the inhomogeneity of in situ observations in the North Indian Ocean,gridded temperature/salinity(T/S) profiles were derived from satellite data for 1993–2012 using a linear regression method. The satellite derived T/S dataset covered the region of 10°S–32°N,25°–100°E with daily temporal resolution,0.25°×0.25° spatial resolution,and 26 vertical layers from the sea surface to a depth of 1 000 m at standard layers. Independent Global Temperature Salinity Profile Project data were used to validate the satellite derived T/S fields. The analysis confirmed that the satellite derived temperature field represented the characteristics and vertical structure of the temperature field well. The results demonstrated that the vertically averaged root mean square error of the temperature was 0.83 in the upper 1 000 m and the corresponding correlation coefficient was 0.87,which accounted for 76% of the observed variance. After verification of the satellite derived T/S dataset,the TC heat potential(TCHP) was verified. The results show that the satellite derived values were coherent with observed TCHP data with a correlation coefficient of 0.86 and statistical significance at the 99% confidence level. The intensity change of TC Gonu during a period of rapid intensification was studied using satellite derived TCHP data. A delayed effect of the TCHP was found in relation to the intensity change of Gonu,suggesting a lag feature in the response of the inner core of the TC to the ocean.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensification tropical cyclone heat potential sea surface temperature seasurface height

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