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A DISCUSSION OF THE MOST INTENSE tropical cycloneS IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC FROM 1978 TO 2013

tropical cyclone Research and Review 2015年第1期4卷 1-11页

作者： CHUN-WING CHOY SZE-NING CHONG DEXIN KONG ESPERANZA O.CAYANAN Hong Kong Observatory School of Energy and Environment,City University of Hong Kong Philippine Atmospheric,Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Hong Kong Observatory School of Energy and Environment City University of Hong Kong Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

This study examines a number of very intense tropical cyclones(TCs) in the western North Pacific(WNP) since 1978 as depicted by the best track data from the four main weather agencies in the WNP, namely the Hong Kong Observatory, China Meteorological Administration, Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tokyo and Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, and the Advanced Dvorak Technique–Hurricane Satellite dataset prepared by the University of Wisconsin/NOAA National Climatic Data Center to identify the most intense TCs in the western North Pacific. Comparison analysis reveals that there are very large differences in the ranking of maximum sustained wind speed(MSW) among these datasets, probably due to data inhomogeneity issues and the discrepancies in TC intensity assessment among these centres. Re-assessment of the MSW of potential candidates suggests that, within uncertainty range of the analysis, Tip(1979) and Haiyan(2013) are the most intense TCs in the WNP during the period. Among the potential candidates, eight of them made landfall during their lifetime. Satellite pattern comparison and the best track dataset analysis of these typhoons show that Haiyan(2013) has the highest estimated MSW right before landfalling, making it the most intense TC making landfall in the WNP during the period 1978-2013.

关键词： tropical cyclone analysis Dvorak analysis Tip Haiyan

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