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tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2022年第5期41卷 64-77页

作者： Cong Gao Lei Zhou School of Oceanography Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghai200030China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai519082China

Threatening millions of people and causing billions of dollars in losses,tropical cyclones(TCs)are among the most severe natural hazards in the world,especially over the western North Pacific.However,the response of TCs to a warming or changing climate has been the subject of considerable research,often with conflicting results.In this study,the abilities of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP)Phase 6(CMIP6)models to simulate TC genesis are assessed through historical simulations.The results indicate that a systematic humidity bias persists in most CMIP6 models from corresponding CMIP Phase 5 models,which leads to an overestimation of climatological TC genesis.However,the annual cycle of TC genesis is well captured by CMIP6 models.The abilities of 25 models to simulate the geographical patterns of TC genesis vary significantly.In addition,seven models are identified as well simulated models,but seven models are identified as poorly simulated ones.A comparison of the environmental variables for TC genesis in the well-simulated group and the poorly simulated group identifies moisture in the mid-troposphere as a key factor in the realistic simulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)impacts on TC genesis.In contrast with the observations,the poorly simulated group does not reproduce the suppressing effect of negative moisture anomalies on TC genesis in the northwestern region(20°–30°N,120°–145°E)during El Niño years.Given the interaction between TC and ENSO,these results provide a guidance for future TC projections under climate change by CMIP6 models.

关键词： CMIP6 tropical cyclone genesis potential index relative humidity

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tropical cyclone track and intensity prediction skill of GFS model over NIO during 2019&2020

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tropical cyclone Research and Review 2022年第1期11卷 36-49页

作者： Ch.Sridevi D.R.Pattanaik A.K.Das Akhil Srivastava V.R.Durai C.J.Johny Medha Deshpande P.Suneetha Radhika Kanase India Meteorological Department Numerical Weather Prediction DivisionLodhi RoadNew Delhi110003India Indian Institute of tropical Meteorology MoESPune411008India Dept of Meteorology and Oceanography Andhra UniversityVisakhapatnamAndhra Pradesh530003India

The tropical cyclone(TC)track prediction using different NWP models and its verification is the critical task to provide prior knowledge about the model errors,which is beneficial for giving the model guidance-based real-time cyclone warning advisories.This study has attempted to verify the Global Forecast System(GFS)model forecasted tropical cyclone track and intensity over the North Indian Ocean(NIO)for the years 2019 and 2020.GFS is one of the operational models in the India Meteorological Department(IMD),which provides the medium-range weather forecast up to 10 days.The forecasted tracks from the GFS forecast are obtained using a vortex tracker developed by Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory(GFDL).A total of 13 tropical cyclones formed over the North Indian Ocean,eight during 2019 and five in 2020 have been considered in this study.The accuracy of the model predicted tracks and intensity is verified for five days forecasts(120 h)at 6-h intervals;the track errors are verified in terms of Direct Position Error(DPE),Along Track Error(ATE)and Cross-Track Error(CTE).The annual mean DPE over NIO during 2019(51–331 km)is lower than 2020(82–359 km),and the DPE is less than 150 km up to 66 h during 2019 and 48 h during 2020.The positive ATE(76–332 km)indicates the predicted track movement is faster than the observed track during both years.The positive CTE values for most forecast lead times suggest that the predicted track is towards the right side of the observed track during both years.The cyclone Intensity forecast for the maximum sustained wind speed(Max WS)and central mean sea level pressure(MSLP)are verified in terms of mean error(ME)and root mean square error(RMSE).The errors are lead time independent.However,most of the time model under-predicted the cyclone intensity during both years.Finally,there is a significant variance in track and intensity errors from the cyclone to cyclone and Bay of Bengal basin to the Arabian Sea basin.

关键词： tropical cyclone Track prediction GFS NWP Global model GFDL

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tropical cyclone Fani-perspective from the trauma and emergency department of an affected tertiary hospital

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Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2020年第4期23卷 243-248页

作者： Chitta Ranjan Mohanty Mantu Jain Rakesh Vadakkethil Radhakrishnan Prabeer Chandra Mohanty Ritesh panda Department of Trauma and Emergency All India Institute of Medical SciencesBhubaneswarIndia Department of Orthopedics All India Institute of Medical SciencesBhubaneswarIndia College of Nursing All India Institute of Medical SciencesBhubaneswarIndia

Purpose:To explore the epidemiological and clinical profile of patients admitted to the trauma and emergency department(TED)of a tertiary care hospital due to tropical cyclone Fani and highlight the challenges faced by the hospital in this natural disaster.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted in the TED in the affected zone.Data of all victims affected by the cyclone Fani on May 3,2019 were obtained from disaster records and medical case sheets.All patients except death on admission were included.Clinical variables included anatomical sites and severity of injuries which was assessed by revised trauma score(RTS)and injury severity score(ISS).Trauma injury severity score(TRISS)was also calculated.Results:Of 75 patients,74 were included and the other one was brought dead and thus excluded.The age,median±interquartile range(IQ),was 41.0(27.7-53.0)years.The male to female ratio was 2:1.Most of the wounded were transported by the police control room vans on day 1:first 10 h,50.0%;10-24 h,20.3%.The median±IQ range of RTS,ISS and TRISS were 20(14-28),7.84(7.841-7.841),and 97.4(91.6-98.9),respectively.Simple external injury was the dominant injury type.Polytrauma(ISS>15)was seen in 67%cases and spine injury in 14%cases(7%cervical and 7%thoracolumbar).Injury causes included sharp flying objects(broken pieces of glasses and asbestos)in 31%cases,followed by fall of trees in 20.3%.Twenty-four patients were discharged after primary treatment,30 admitted to the indoor-trauma ward or intensive care unit and 20 deferred or transferred to another center.There was no in-house mortality.Challenges were related to electricity failure,mobile network breakdown,infrastructure collapse,and delay in expertise repair from outside due to airport/railway closure.Conclusion:In cyclonic storm like Fani,sharp flying objects,fall of trees/poles and collapsing walls constitute the common mode of injuries causing harm to more than one body regions.Polytrauma was seen in the majority of patients though external injury was the commonest.The

关键词： Natural disasters tropical cyclone Multiple trauma Tertiary care

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Uptrend of the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone Outflow Height during 1959-2021

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 339-350页

作者： Yuan SUN Zhihao FENG Wei ZHONG Panmao ZHAI Yanluan LIN Shuo LYU College of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies National University of Defense TechnologyNanjing 211100 College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084

Relatively little is known about the impact of global warming on the tropical cyclone(TC)outflow,despite its large contribution to TC intensity.In this study,based on the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship(IBTrACS)dataset and ERA5 reanalysis data,we show that the TC outflow height has risen significantly(48.20±22.18 m decades-1)in the past decades(1959-2021)over the western North Pacific,and the rising trend tends to be sharper for stronger TCs(the uptrend of severe typhoon is 61.09±40.92 m decades-1).This rising trend of the outflow height explains the contradiction between the decrease trend of the TC outflow temperature and the increase trend of the atmospheric troposphere temperature.Moreover,possible contribution of the TC outflow height uptrend to TC intensity has also been investigated.The results show that the rise of outflow height leads to the decrease of outflow temperature,and thus an increased difference between underlying sea surface temperature(SST)and TC outflow temperature,which eventually favors the increase of TC intensity.

关键词： tropical cyclone outflow height global warming western North Pacific

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Alignment of Track Oscillations during tropical cyclone Rapid Intensification

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 655-670页

作者： Tong XIE Liguang WU Yecheng FENG Jinghua YU Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Dept.of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology Shanghai 200438China

Recent studies on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change indicate that the development of a vertically aligned TC circulation is a key feature of its rapid intensification(RI),however,understanding how vortex alignment occurs remains a challenging topic in TC intensity change research.Based on the simulation outputs of North Atlantic Hurricane Wilma(2005)and western North Pacific Typhoon Rammasun(2014),vortex track oscillations at different vertical levels and their associated role in vortex alignment are examined to improve our understanding of the vortex alignment during RI of TCs with initial hurricane intensity.It is found that vortex tracks at different vertical levels oscillate consistently in speed and direction during the RI of the two simulated TCs.While the consistent track oscillation reduces the oscillation tilt during RI,the reduction of vortex tilt results mainly from the mean track before RI.It is also found that the vortex tilt is primarily due to the mean vortex track before and after RI.The track oscillations are closely associated with wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves that are dominant wavenumber-1 circulations in the TC inner-core region.This study suggests that the dynamics of the wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves play an important role in the regulation of the physical processes associated with the track oscillation and vertical alignment of TCs.

关键词： tropical cyclone rapid intensification vortex tilt Rossby wave

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The Contribution of United States Aircraft Reconnaissance Data to the China Meteorological Administration tropical cyclone Intensity Data:An Evaluation of Homogeneity

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 639-654页

作者： Ming YING Xiaoqin LU Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China

This paper investigates the homogeneity of United States aircraft reconnaissance data and the impact of these data on the homogeneity of the tropical cyclone(TC)best track data for the seasons 1949-1987 generated by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA).The evaluation of the reconnaissance data shows that the minimum central sea level pressure(MCP)data are relatively homogeneous,whereas the maximum sustained wind(MSW)data show both overestimations and spurious abrupt changes.Statistical comparisons suggest that both the reconnaissance MCP and MSW were well incorporated into the CMA TC best track dataset.Although no spurious abrupt changes were evident in the reconnaissance-related best track MCP data,two spurious changepoints were identified in the remainder of the best-track MCP data.Furthermore,the influence of the reconnaissance MSWs seems to extend to the best track MSWs unrelated to reconnaissance,which might reflect the optimistic confidence in making higher estimates due to the overestimated extreme wind“observations”.In addition,the overestimation of either the reconnaissance MSWs or the best track MSWs was greater during the early decades compared to later decades,which reflects the important influence of reconnaissance data on the CMA TC best track dataset.The wind-pressure relationship(WPR)used in the CMA TC best track dataset is also evaluated and is found to overestimate the MSW,which may lead to inhomogeneity within the dataset between the aircraft reconnaissance era and the satellite era.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity homogeneity best track aircraft reconnaissance

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Understanding of the Effect of Climate Change on tropical cyclone Intensity:A Review

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第2期39卷 205-221页

作者： Liguang WU Haikun ZHAO Chao WANG Jian CAO Jia LIANG Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Innovation Center of Ocean and Atmosphere System Zhuhai Fudan Innovation Research InstituteZhuhai 518057China

The effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity has been an important scientific issue for a few decades.Although theory and modeling suggest the intensification of tropical cyclones in a warming climate,there are uncertainties in the assessed and projected responses of tropical cyclone intensity to climate change.While a few comprehensive reviews have already provided an assessment of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity including tropical cyclone intensity,this review focuses mainly on the understanding of the effect of climate change on basin-wide tropical cyclone intensity,including indices for basin-wide tropical cyclone intensity,historical datasets used for intensity trend detection,environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity,detection and simulation of tropical cyclone intensity change,and some issues on the assessment of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity.In addition to the uncertainty in the historical datasets,intertwined natural variabilities,the considerable model bias in the projected large-scale environment,and poorly simulated inner-core structures of tropical cyclones,it is suggested that factors controlling the basin-wide intensity can be different from individual tropical cyclones since the assessment of the effect of climate change treats tropical cyclones in a basin as a whole.

关键词： tropical cyclone climate change intensity change

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tropical cyclone Genesis Potential Index over the Western North Pacific Simulated by CMIP5 Models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第11期32卷 1539-1550页

作者： SONG Yajuan WANG Lei LEI Xiaoyan WANG Xidong College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of China First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration State Key Laboratory of tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Marine Environment Information Technology State Oceanic Administration

tropical cyclone （TC） genesis over the western North Pacific （WNP） is analyzed using 23 CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5） models and reanalysis datasets. The models are evaluated according to TC genesis potential index （GPI）. The spatial and temporal variations of the GPI are first calculated using three atmospheric reanalysis datasets （ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis- 1, and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2）. Spatial distributions of July-October-mean TC frequency based on the GPI from ERA-interim are more consistent with observed ones derived from IBTrACS global TC data. So, the ERA-interim reanalysis dataset is used to examine the CMIP5 models in terms of reproducing GPI during the period 1982-2005. Although most models possess deficiencies in reproducing the spatial distribution of the GPI, their multi- model ensemble （MME） mean shows a reasonable climatological GPI pattern characterized by a high GPI zone along 20°N in the WNP. There was an upward trend of TC genesis frequency during 1982 to 1998, followed by a downward trend. Both MME results and reanalysis data can represent a robust increasing trend during 1982-1998, but the models cannot simulate the downward trend after 2000. Analysis based on future projection experiments shows that the GPI exhibits no significant change in the first half of the 21st century, and then starts to decrease at the end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway （RCP） 2.6 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the GPI shows an increasing trend in the vicinity of 20°N, indicating more TCs could possibly be expected over the WNP under future global warming.

关键词： tropical cyclone genesis potential index CMIP5 western North Pacific global warming.

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Westward Migration of tropical cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific during 1982–2020:Features and Possible Causes

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 1-9页

作者： Jian ZHONG Huadong DU Yuqin WU Yuehua PENG China Satellite Maritime Tracking and Control Department Jiangyin 2144312 College of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 4100733 Dalian Naval Academy Dalian 1160184 Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029

The westward migration of tropical cyclone(TC)activity has been identified in the western North Pacific(WNP),but the related features and causes remain elusive.Here,based on the best track data from China,Japan,and the US,and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data in 1982–2020,we investigate characteristics of the westward migration of the WNP TC activity with various metrics,and reveal possible causes for the migration of TC tracks through analyzing its seasonality and dependence on environmental conditions.The results show that the WNP TCs show significant westward migrations in a number of metrics,including location of tracks,genesis,the first track point at which TC reaches its lifetime-maximum intensity,and the last track point in the TC lifetime.It is found that TC tracks exhibit more significant westward migrations in the easterly steering flow than in the westerly steering flow.Meanwhile,the TC longitude shift shows notable seasonal variations,for which the TCs in the easterlies move further west than those in the westerlies during July–September,vice versa during October–December.The dependence of the westward migration of TC tracks on background steering flow is associated with the different environmental conditions.The westward shift in the westerly steering is mainly due to the reduced vertical wind shear(VWS),while the weakened zonal easterly steering and reduced VWS are both closely related to the westward migration in the easterly steering.These results have important implications for understanding current and future variations in TC longitude shift.

关键词： tropical cyclone westward migration steering flow vertical wind shear

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Wave hindcast under tropical cyclone conditions in the South China Sea:sensitivity to wind fields

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2023年第10期42卷 36-53页

作者： Liqun Jia Shimei Wu Bo Han Shuqun Cai Renhao Wu School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China State Key Laboratory of tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China

Reliable wave information is critical for marine engineering.Numerical wave models are useful tools to obtain wave information with continuous spatiotemporal distributions.However,the accuracy of model results highly depends on the quality of wind forcing.In this study,we utilize observations from five buoys deployed in the northern South China Sea from August to September 2017.Notably,these buoys successfully recorded wind field and wave information during the passage of five tropical cyclones of different intensities without sustaining any damage.Based on these unique observations,we evaluated the quality of four widely used wind products,namely CFSv2,ERA5,CCMP,and ERAI.Our analysis showed that in the northern South China Sea,ERA5 performed best compared to buoy observations,especially in terms of maximum wind speed values at 10 m height(U10),extreme U10 occurrence time,and overall statistical indicators.CFSv2 tended to overestimate non-extreme U10 values.CCMP showed favorable statistical performance at only three of the five buoys,but underestimated extreme U10 values at all buoys.ERAI had the worst performance under both normal and tropical cyclone conditions.In terms of wave hindcast accuracy,ERA5 outperformed the other reanalysis products,with CFSv2 and CCMP following closely.ERAI showed poor performance especially in the upper significant wave heights.Furthermore,we found that the wave hindcasts did not improve with increasing spatiotemporal resolution,with spatial resolution up to 0.5°.These findings would help in improving wave hindcasts under extreme conditions.

关键词： wave hindcast SWAN tropical cyclone South China Sea

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