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Mobility in China, 2020: a tale of four phases

National Science Review 2021年第11期8卷 110-120页

作者： Suoyi Tan Shengjie Lai Fan Fang Ziqiang Cao Bin Sai Bing Song Bitao Dai Shuhui Guo Chuchu Liu Mengsi Cai Tong Wang Mengning Wang Jiaxu Li Saran Chen Shuo Qin Jessica R.Floyd Zhidong Cao Jing Tan Xin Sun Tao Zhou Wei Zhang Andrew J.Tatem Petter Holme Xiaohong Chen Xin Lu School of Business Central South University Institute of Big Data and Internet Innovations Hunan University of Technology and Business College of Systems Engineering National University of Defense Technology WorldPop School of Geography and Environmental ScienceUniversity of Southampton School of Mathematics and Big Data Foshan University State Key Laboratory on Blind Signal Processing State Key Laboratory of Management and Control for Complex Systems Institute of AutomationChinese Academy of Sciences Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics West China Hospital Sichuan University Big Data Research Center University of Electronic Science and Technology of China West China Biomedical Big Data Center West China Hospital Sichuan University Tokyo Tech World Hub Research Initiative Institute of Innovative Research Tokyo Institute of Technology

2020 was an unprecedented year,with rapid and drastic changes in human mobility due to the COVID-19 pandemic.To understand the variation in commuting patterns among the Chinese population across stable and unstable periods,we used nationwide mobility data from 318 million mobile phone users in China to examine the extreme fluctuations of population movements in 2020,ranging from the Lunar New Year travel season(chunyun), to the exceptional calm of COVID-19 lockdown,and then to the recovery period.We observed that cross-city movements,which increased substantially in chunyun and then dropped sharply during the lockdown,are primarily dependent on travel distance and the socio-economic development of cities.Following the Lunar New Year holiday,national mobility remained low until mid-February,and COVID-19 interventions delayed more than 72.89 million people returning to large cities.Mobility network analysis revealed clusters of highly connected cities,conforming to the social-economic division of urban agglomerations in China.While the mass migration back to large cities was delayed,smaller cities connected more densely to form new clusters.During the recovery period after travel restrictions were lifted,the netflows of over 55% city pairs reversed in direction compared to before the lockdown.These findings offer the most comprehensive picture of Chinese mobility at fine resolution across various scenarios in China and are of critical importance for decision making regarding future public-health-emergency response,transportation planning and regional economic development,among others.

关键词： human mobility travel restrictions COVID-19 mobile phone data behavioral response

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