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travel time prediction with viscoelastic traffic model

Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition) 2018年第12期39卷 1769-1788页

作者： Yongliang ZHANG M.N.SMIRNOVA A.I.BOGDANOVA Zuojin ZHU N.N.SMIRNOV Faculty of Engineering Science University of Science and Technology of China Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics Moscow M.V.Lomonosov State University Scientific Research Institute for System Analysis Russian Academy of Sciences

travel time through a ring road with a total length of 80 km has been predicted by a viscoelastic traffic model(VEM), which is developed in analogous to the non-Newtonian fluid flow. The VEM expresses a traffic pressure for the unfree flow case by space headway, ensuring that the pressure can be determined by the assumption that the relevant second critical sound speed is exactly equal to the disturbance propagation speed determined by the free flow speed and the braking distance measured by the average vehicular length. The VEM assumes that the sound speed for the free flow case depends on the traffic density in some specific aspects, which ensures that it is exactly identical to the free flow speed on an empty road. To make a comparison, the open Navier-Stokes type model developed by Zhang(ZHANG, H. M. Driver memory, traffic viscosity and a viscous vehicular traffic flow model. Transp. Res. Part B, 37, 27–41(2003)) is adopted to predict the travel time through the ring road for providing the counterpart *** the traffic free flow speed is 80 km/h, the braking distance is supposed to be 45 m,with the jam density uniquely determined by the average length of vehicles l ≈ 5.8 m. To avoid possible singular points in travel time prediction, a distinguishing period for time averaging is pre-assigned to be 7.5 minutes. It is found that the travel time increases monotonically with the initial traffic density on the ring road. Without ramp effects, for the ring road with the initial density less than the second critical density, the travel time can be simply predicted by using the equilibrium speed. However, this simpler approach is unavailable for scenarios over the second critical.

关键词： travel time viscoelastic modeling distinguishing period for time averaging spatial-temporal pattern traffic jam

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The stay coefficient: a novel quantification of the relationship between stay time and travel time for urban shopping behavior analysis

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Geo-Spatial Information Science 2023年第1期26卷 44-57页

作者： Takashi Yamada Department of Human Factors Engineering and Environmental Design Faculty of Biology-Oriented Science and TechnologyKindai UniversityWakayamaJapan

Shoppers typically want to spend an amount of time at a destination that is proportional to the travel time required to arrive there;thus,the travel time can be considered the cost of their *** is likely to be the case across regions with different urban structures and *** purpose of this study was therefore to analyze the shopping behaviors contained in travel survey data from three metropolitan areas in Japan to identify common patterns and indicators based on travel time and stay time,thereby obtaining an understanding to inform future trade area *** the travel time and stay time associated with shopping behavior were found to be log-normally distributed regardless of metropolitan area,and four shopping behavior patterns common among the metropolitan areas were ***“stay coeffi-cient”was then defined to express the elasticity of stay time according to travel time,and its values were similar according to shopping behavior pattern regardless of metropolitan *** stay coefficient proposed in this study can therefore be applied to identify shopping behavior patterns in any urban area based on the relationship between travel time and stay time,realizing a novel approach to the analysis of and marketing for trade areas when planning the construction or renovation of commercial *** approach can help inform the decisions of urban policy makers,marketing advisors,and commercial facility operators,and should be of interest to researchers and practitioners working with geospatial,shopping,and other human behavioral characteristics.

关键词： travel survey shopping behavior travel time stay time stay coefficient trade area analysis

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Road distance and travel time for an improved house price Kriging predictor

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Geo-Spatial Information Science 2018年第3期21卷 185-194页

作者： Henry Crosby Theo Damoulas Alex Caton Paul Davis João Porto de Albuquerque Stephen A.Jarvis Warwick Institute for the Science of Cities University of WarwickCoventryUK Department of Computer Science University of WarwickCoventryUK Department of Statistics University of WarwickCoventryUK Assured Property Group WarwickUK Center of Interdisciplinary Methodologies University of WarwickCoventryUK

The paper designs an automated valuation model to predict the price of residential property in Coventry,United Kingdom,and achieves this by means of geostatistical Kriging,a popularly employed distance-based learning *** traditional applications of distance-based learning,this papers implements non-Euclidean distance metrics by approximating road distance,travel time and a linear combination of both,which this paper hypothesizes to be more related to house prices than straight-line(Euclidean)*** that–to undertake Kriging–a valid variogram must be produced,this paper exploits the conforming properties of the Minkowski distance function to approximate a road distance and travel time metric.A least squares approach is put forth for variogram parameter selection and an ordinary Kriging predictor is implemented for *** predictor is then validated with 10-fold crossvalidation and a spatially aware checkerboard hold out method against the almost exclusively employed,Euclidean *** a comparison of results for each distance metric,this paper witnesses a goodness of fit(r2)result of 0.6901±0.18 SD for real estate price prediction compared to the traditional(Euclidean)approach obtaining a suboptimal r2 value of 0.66±0.21 SD.

关键词： Kriging Minkowski travel time road distance realestate valuation

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Survival analysis of car travel time near a bus stop in developing countries

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Science China(Technological Sciences) 2012年第8期55卷 2355-2361页

作者： YANG XiaoBao GAO ZiYou GUO HongWei HUAN Mei MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology Beijing Jiaotong UniversityBeijing 100044China Department of Transportation Engineering Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing 100081China

This paper presents an important investigation into car travel time affected by mixed traffic flow near a bus stop on the basis of survival analysis *** time data associated with mixed traffic characteristics near a bus stop were collected by video cameras.A hazard-based duration model was introduced to analyze the effects of mixed traffic flow on car travel *** results indicate that mixed traffic flow impacts car travel time *** the presence of bus berthing violation would delay car travel *** proposed model can be used to forecast temporal shifts in car travel time due to changes in mixed traffic *** influential factors related to mixed traffic flow should be given full consideration in the planning and designing of bus stops in developing countries.

关键词： survival analysis travel time duration model bus stop mixed traffic

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Integrated reliability of travel time and capacity of urban road network under ice and snowfall conditions

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Journal of Central South University 2010年第2期17卷 419-424页

作者：冷军强张亚平张倩赵莹萍 School of Transportation Science and Engineering Harbin Institute of Technology School of Automobile Engineering Harbin Institute of Technology

In order to evaluate and integrate travel time reliability and capacity reliability of a road network subjected to ice and snowfall conditions,the conceptions of travel time reliability and capacity reliability were defined under special *** link travel time model(ice and snowfall based-bureau public road,ISB-BPR) and the path choice decision model(elastic demand user equilibrium,EDUE) were *** integrated reliability was defined and the model was set *** Carlo simulation was used to calculate the model and a numerical example was provided to demonstrate the application of the model and efficiency of the solution *** results show that the intensity of ice and snowfall,the traffic demand and supply,and the requirements for level of service(LOS) have great influence on the reliability of a road *** example,the reliability drops from 65% to 5% when the traffic demand increases by 30%.The comprehensive performance index may be used for network planning,design and maintenance.

关键词： integrated reliability urban road network travel time capacity Monte Carlo simulation bi-level program ice and snowfall

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Bluetooth as a traffic sensor for stream travel time estimation under Bogazici Bosporus conditions in Turkey

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Journal of Modern Transportation 2016年第3期24卷 207-214页

作者： ilker Erkan Hasan Hastemoglu Faculty of Architecture Suleyman Demirel University

travel time estimation is an integral part of Intelligent Transportation Systems, and has been an important component in traffic management and operations for many years. travel time, being spatial in nature, requires spatial sensors to measure it accurately. Bluetooth is emerging as a promising technology for the direct measurement of travel time, and is reported in a few studies from homogenous traffic conditions. At the same time, there have been no studies on the applicability of Bluetooth for travel time estimation in heterogeneous traffic seen in Istanbul and even that Turkey. Bluetooth data collected from a busy urban road in Istanbul city have been analyzed and the penetration rate was found to be about 5 %. Two wheelers and light motor vehicles have been detected using the Bluetooth sensor and the data have been extrapolated to estimate travel times of other classes of vehicles. The study developed linear relationships between speeds of different classes of vehicles through weighted linear regression methods and were used for the estimation of stream travel time. The results obtained were promising and show that Bluetooth is a cost-effective technology for estimation of travel time for heterogeneous traffic conditions.

关键词： travel time Public transport Traffic management Istanbul traffic Traffic time estimation

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Impacts of Bus Lane on Bus travel time Reliability:a Case Study in Shenzhen

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Journal of Donghua University(English Edition) 2017年第2期34卷 189-194页

作者：鲁雯卓路庆昌彭仲仁孙健 Center for ITS and UAV Applications Research State Key Laboratory of Ocean EngineeringSchool of Naval ArchitectureOcean and Civil EngineeringShanghai Jiao Tong University Department of Urban and Regional Planning University of Florida

The aim of the paper is to evaluate the impacts of bus lane on bus travel time *** data used are the Geographic Positioning System(GPS) data of two bus lines running parallel streets in Shenzhen,China,one of which is a bus lane and the other is a regular *** linear regression models are developed to evaluate the influence of bus lane which has a separated right of *** factors including running direction,day of week,time of day,dwell time,and delay at the start point are also considered in the *** published time tables,coefficient of variance(CV) of travel time is employed to explore the impacts of bus *** results indicate that bus lane can save 22.0% of travel time,reduce 11.5% of the CV of travel time,and decrease the variance of headway by 17.4%.The analysis on bus travel time reliability could help operators and drivers improve the quality of transit *** also sheds light on how to assess the effectiveness of bus lane for transit planners and service operators.

关键词： bus lane travel time travel time reliability Geographic Positioning System(GPS) data

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travel time function for basic link considering signal control in network traffic model

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Journal of Southeast University(English Edition) 2011年第3期27卷 305-310页

作者：祁宏生王殿海别一鸣宋现敏吉林大学交通学院长春130025 浙江大学建筑工程学院杭州310058

In order to describe the travel time of signalcontrolled roads, a travel time model for urban basic roads based on the cumulative curve is proposed. First, the traffic wave method is used to analyze the formation and dispersion of the vehicle queue. Cumulative curves for road entrances and exits are established. Based on the cumulative curves, the travel time of the one-lane road under stable flow input is derived. And then, the multi-lane road is decomposed into a series of single-lane links based on its topological characteristics. Hence, the travel time function for the basic road is obtained. The travel time is a function of road length, flow and control parameters. Numerical analyses show that the travel time depends on the supply-demand condition, and it has high sensitivity during peak hours.

关键词： travel time traffic wave queue length signal control

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time-varying confidence interval forecasting of travel time for urban arterials using ARIMA-GARCH model

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Journal of Southeast University(English Edition) 2014年第3期30卷 358-362页

作者：崔青华夏井新东南大学智能交通系统研究中心南京210096

To improve the forecasting reliability of travel time, the time-varying confidence interval of travel time on arterials is forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity （ARIMA-GARCH） model. In which, the ARIMA model is used as the mean equation of the GARCH model to model the travel time levels and the GARCH model is used to model the conditional variances of travel time. The proposed method is validated and evaluated using actual traffic flow data collected from the traffic monitoring system of Kunshan city. The evaluation results show that, compared with the conventional ARIMA model, the proposed model cannot significantly improve the forecasting performance of travel time levels but has advantage in travel time volatility forecasting. The proposed model can well capture the travel time heteroskedasticity and forecast the time-varying confidence intervals of travel time which can better reflect the volatility of observed travel times than the fixed confidence interval provided by the ARIMA model.

关键词： confidence interval forecasting travel time autoregressive integrated moving average and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity ( ARIMA-GARCH) conditional variance reliability

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Evaluation of Freeway travel time Variability and Reliability under Adverse Weather with TRANSMIT Data

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Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture 2012年第1期6卷 1-11页

作者： Steven I. Chien Kiran K. Kolluri New Jersey Institute of Technology University Heights

Traffic congestion has caused many detrimental effects including higher fuel consumption, more vehicle emissions, increased accidents, as well as greater tension due to uncertain travel time. In addition to delay, the variability and reliability of travel time has been of concern to motorists on their daily travel, especially during peak periods. The objective of this study is to examine freeway travel time variability and reliability under different traffic and weather conditions with the use of TRANSMIT data collected by roadside readers deployed on a 40-mile segment of the Interstate Highway 1-287 in New Jersey. travel time variability and reliability measures including mean travel time, the 95th percentile travel time, travel time index, buffer index, and planning time index under recurring and non-recurring congestion （adverse weather） are investigated. It was found that the standard deviation of travel time increased, due to the weather condition varying from dry to rain and to snow, while the buffer index increased from 29% to 45% and to 94%.

关键词： travel time variability reliability TRANSMIT ITS traveler information.

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