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train delay analysis and prediction based on big data fusion

Transportation Safety and Environment 2019年第1期1卷 79-88页

作者： Pu Wang Qing-peng Zhang School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering Central South UniversityChangsha 400083China Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management City University of Hong KongKowloonHong KongChina

Despite the fact that punctuality is an advantage of rail travel compared with other long-distance transport,train delays often *** this study,a three-month dataset of weather,train delay and train schedule records was collected and analysed in order to understand the patterns of train delays and to predict train delay *** found that in severe weather train delays are determined mainly by the type of bad weather,while in ordinary weather the delays are determined mainly by the historical delay time and delay frequency of *** the factors closely correlated with train delays,we developed a machine-learning model to predict the delay time of each train at each *** prediction model is useful not only for passengers wishing to plan their journeys more reliably,but also for railway operators developing more efficient train schedules and more reasonable pricing plans.

关键词： train delay data fusion railway operation machine learning

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A simulation model for estimating train and passenger delays in large-scale rail transit networks

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Journal of Central South University 2012年第12期19卷 3603-3613页

作者：江志彬李锋徐瑞华高鹏 School of Transportation Engineering Tongji University IBM China Research Lab

A simulation model was proposed to investigate the relationship between train delays and passenger delays and to predict the dynamic passenger distribution in a large-scale rail transit network. It was assumed that the time varying original-destination demand and passenger path choice probability were given. Passengers were assumed not to change their destinations and travel paths after delay occurs. CapaciW constraints of train and queue rules of alighting and boarding were taken into account. By using the time-driven simulation, the states of passengers, trains and other facilities in the network were updated every time step. The proposed methodology was also tested in a real network, for demonstration. The results reveal that short train delay does not necessarily result in passenger delays, while, on the contrary, some passengers may get benefits from the short delay. However, large initial train delay may result in not only knock-on train and passenger delays along the same line, but also the passenger delays across the entire rail transit network.

关键词： delay simulation passenger delay train delay rail transit network timetable

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Contributing Factors for delays during the Morning Commute Hours and the Impact of the Spread of COVID-19 for Metropolitan train Lines in Japan

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Journal of Transportation Technologies 2021年第4期11卷 519-544页

作者： Keigo Ohshima Kayoko Yamamoto Graduate School of Informatics and Engineering University of Electro-Communications Tokyo Japan

The present study aims to conduct 2 types of statistical analysis to reveal the impact of the spread of COVID-19 on train delays by comparing the potential contributing factors before, during and after the outbreak of the virus in the metropolitan train lines in Japan. First of all, the result of the present study clearly revealed the changes in contributing factors for train delays caused by the spread of COVID-19. Specifically, the contributing factors for train delays changed due to the decrease of passengers by the effect of the outbreak of the virus. Additionally, though large terminal stations were considered to be a major contributing factor in causing and increasing train delays in the past, this was not the case after the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, under such conditions, it is more effective to make improvements in small to medium stations and tracks rather than terminal stations. Furthermore, as the decrease in passengers also decreased train delays in commuter lines going to the suburbs due to the spread of COVID-19, the contributing factor for such lines is the excessive number of passengers. Therefore, as for countermeasures for train delays after the effects of COVID-19, it is necessary to disperse passengers in order to avoid passengers concentrating in the same time zones and train lines.

关键词： train delay Morning Rush Hour train Line Network COVID-19 Statistical Analysis Standard Multiple Regression Analysis Logistic Regression Analysis

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A delay propagation algorithm for trains on a single railway line

A delay propagation algorithm for trains on a single railway...

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第32届中国控制与决策会议

作者： Wentao Xu Chaoyu Tang Junfeng Ma School of Automation Central South University

Due to the large passenger flow and the high traffic density of the Chinese high-speed railway network,the number of train delay incidents is increasing in recent *** a railway network,an initial train delay may bring a cascade effect of secondary delays over the following *** this paper,we analyse the delay propagation among trains on a single railway line and aim to establish a train delay propagation algorithm using the max-plus algebra *** we illustrate the proposed algorithm by an *** study presented here could be potentially useful in large-scale railway networks,and may serve as a useful component in decision support systems to assist train dispatchers.

关键词： train delay Railway traffic Max-plus algebra

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