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Response of runoff in the headwater region of the yellow river to climate change and its sensitivity analysis

Journal of Geographical Sciences 2010年第6期20卷 848-860页

作者： LAN Yongchao ZHAO Guohui ZHANG Yaonan WEN Jun HU Xinglin LIU Jinqi GU Minglin CHANG Junjie MA Jianhua Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology and Integrated Basin Management CAS Lanzhou 730000 China Cold and Arid regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute CAS Lanzhou 730000 China Hydrology and Water Resources Reconnaissance Bureau of Gansu Province Lanzhou 730000 China Institute of the yellow river headwater of the yellow river Conservancy Committee Lanzhou 730030 China

Response of the runoff in the headwater region of the yellow river to climate change and its sensibility are analyzed based on the measured data at the four hydrological stations and ten weather stations during the period 1959-2008. The result indicates that change of temperature in the region has an obvious corresponding relationship with global warming and the changes of annual average temperature in each subregion in the region have been presenting a fluctuant and rising state in the past 50 years. However the change of precipitation is more intricate than the change of temperature in the region because of the influences of the different geographical positions and environments in various areas, and the change of annual precipitation in the main runoff-producing area has been presenting a fluctuant and decreasing state in the past 50 years. And there is a remarkable nonlinear correlativity between runoff and precipitation and temperature in the region. The runoff in the region has been decreasing continuously since 1990 because the precipitation in the main run-off-producing area obviously decreases and the annual average temperature continuously rises. As a whole, the runoff in each subregion of the headwater region of the yellow river is quite sensitive to precipitation change, while the runoff in the subregion above Jimai is more sensitive to temperature change than that in the others in the region, correspondingly.

关键词： the headwater region of the yellow river global warming sensibility response

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