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Effects of the us withdrawal from Paris Agreement on the carbon emission space and cost of China and India

Frontiers in Energy 2018年第3期12卷 362-375页

作者： Hancheng DAI Yang XIE Haibin ZHANG Zhongjue YU Wentao WANG College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering Peking UniversityBeijing 100875 China School of Economics and Management Beihang University Beijing100191 China School of International Studies Peking University Beijing 100875China School of Environmental Science and Engineering Shanghai Jiao TongUniversity Shanghai 200240 China The Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21 Ministry of Scienceand Technology Beijing 100038 China

Climate mitigation has become a global issue and most countries have promised their greenhouse gas reduction target. However, after Trump took office as president of the United States （us）, the us withdrew from the Paris Agreement. As the biggest economy, this would have impacts on the emission space of other countries. This paper, by using the integrated model of energy, environ- ment and economy/computable general equilibrium （IMED/CGE） model, assesses the impacts of the us withdrawal from Paris Agreement on China, India in terms of carbon emission space and mitigation cost under Nationally Determined Contributions （NDCs） and 2~C scenarios due to changed emission pathway of the us. The results show that, under the condition of constant global cumulative carbon emissions and fixed burden sharing scheme among the countries, the failure of the us to honor its NDC commitment will increase its carbon emission space and decrease its mitigation cost. However, the carbon emission space of other regions, including China and India, will be reduced and their mitigation costs will be raised. In 2030, under the 2℃ target, the carbon price will increase by us$14.3 to us$45.3/t in China and by us S10.7 to us$33.9/t in India. In addition, China and India will incur additional GDP loss. Under the 2℃ target, the GDP loss of China would increase by us$23.3 to us$72.6 billion （equivalent to us$17.4 to us$54.2/capita）, and that of India would rise by us$14.2 to us$43.1 billion （equivalent to us$9.3 to us$28.2/capita）.

关键词： Paris Agreement China and India the us withdrawal carbon emission space mitigation cost

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