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The Future is in the Past： Projecting and Plotting the Potential Rate of Growth and Trajectory of the Structural Change of the chinese economy for the Next 20 Years

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China & World economy 2015年第1期23卷 21-46页

作者： Jun Zhang Liheng Xu Fang Liu Professor of Economics China Center for Economic Studies Fudan University Shanghai China China Center for Economic Studies Fudan University Shanghai China

Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high-performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the chinese economy over the next 20years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6. 02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross -country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that：（i） the value-added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; （ii） the value-added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; （iii） both the value-added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.

关键词： Asian economies convergence economic growth structural change the chinese economy

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Role of Institutional Quality in Determining the R&D Investment of chinese Firms

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China & World economy 2014年第4期22卷 60-82页

作者： Yixiao Zhou Crawford School of Public Policy the Australian National University

This study adds to the understanding of China ＂s innovation prospects by examining how variations in institutional quality within China impact on the R ＆D efforts of firms located in different provincial regions. In the process of identifying the effect of institutional quality, the roles of other factors such as ownership types and market structures are revealed, which provides interesting insight into firms ＂ R＆D behavior. The key findings suggest that institutional quality positively affects the decision offirms to engage in R＆D activities. Once firms start to engage in R ＆D, the subsequent expansion of firm-level R ＆D intensity depends on factors such as market structure. Therefore, strengthening domestic institutional quality is the first critical step towards the goal of building a knowledge-intensive economy in China. Efforts to nurture market development are also important for achieving this goal.

关键词： Key words: innovation institutional quality R&D investment the chinese economy

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