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Evaluation of multidecadal and longer-term temperature changes since 850 CE based on Northern Hemisphere proxy-based reconstructions and model simulations

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第8期63卷 1126-1143页

作者： Jianglin WANG Bao YANG Jingyun ZHENG Xuezhen ZHANG Zhiyuan WANG Miao FANG Feng SHI Jingjing LIU Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China College of Geography and Environmental Science Zhejiang Normal UniversityJinhua 321004China Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resource Chinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Center for Excellence in Life and Paleoenvironment Beijing 100044China

The temperature variability over multidecadal and longer timescales(e.g., the cold epochs in the late 15 th, 17 th, and early 19 th centuries) is significant and dominant in the millennium-long, large-scale reconstructions and model simulations;however, their temporal patterns in the reconstructed and simulated temperature series are not well understood and require a detailed assessment and comparison. Here, we compare the reconstructed and simulated temperature series for the Northern Hemisphere(NH) at multidecadal and longer-term timescales(>30 years) by evaluating their covariance, climate sensitivity and amplitude of temperature changes. We found that covariances between different reconstructions or between reconstructions and simulations are generally high for the whole period of 850–1999 CE, due to their similar long-term temporal patterns. However,covariances between different reconstructions or between reconstructions and simulations steadily decline as time series extends further back in time, becoming particularly small during Medieval times. This is related to the large uncetainties in the reconstructions caused by the decreased number of proxy records and sample duplication during the pre-instrumental periods.Reconstructions based solely on tree-ring data show higher skill than multiproxy reconstructions in capturing the amplitude of volcanic cooling simulated by models. Meanwhile, climate models have a shorter recovery(i.e., lag) in response to the cooling caused by volcanic eruptions and solar activity minima, implying the lack of some important feedback mechanisms between external forcing and internal climate processes in climate models. Amplitudes of temperature variations in the latest published tree-ring reconstructions are comparable to those of the multiproxy reconstructions. We found that the temperature difference between the Medieval Climate Anomaly(950–1250 CE) and the Little Ice Age(1450–1850 CE) is generally larger in proxybased reconstructions than in model simulations, but the reason i

关键词： temperature changes Multidecadal and longer-term variability Northern Hemisphere Last millennium

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Global mean temperature changes during the last millennium

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2002年第12期 42-46页

作者： GONG Daoyi Beijing 100875 Bering Normal University China Key Laboratory of Environ-mental Change and Natural Disaster

A synthetic study is made on the global or hemispheric mean temperature series for the last millennium worked out by Mann et al., Jones et al,, Crowley and Lowery, and Briffa. The global mean temperature series reconstructed by using proxy data at 30 sites by Wang et al. and simulations from AD 1000 to 2000 by energy balance model are described and compared with the series of others. Wang’s series gives greater variability and shows the highest correlation coefficient (0. 83) with the simulation results. Uncertainties in the reconstructions and simulations are discussed. The errors in reconstructing a global mean temperature series according to 30 sites as used in the research are estimated. Wang s series indicate that temperature average for the 11th century is higher than the mean of the last millennium. It infers that the Medieval Warm Period predominated to some extent over the globe. However, the 20th century is no doubt the warmest century during the last millennium.

关键词： last millennium temperature changes Medieval Warm Period Little Ice Age modern climate warming.

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Pollen-based Holocene quantitative temperature reconstruction on the eastern Tibetan Plateau using a comprehensive method framework

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第8期63卷 1144-1160页

作者： Chen LIANG Yan ZHAO Feng QIN Zhuo ZHENG Xiayun XIAO Chunmei MA Huan LI Wenwei ZHAO Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Department of Earth Science Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment Nanjing Institute of Geography&LimnologyChinese Academy of SciencesNanjing 210008China School of Geography and Ocean Science Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Department of Earth Sciences Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdam 1081 HVThe Netherlands School of Geographic Science Nantong UniversityNantong 226009China

Quantitative climate reconstruction on long timescales can provide important insights for understanding the climate variability and providing valuable data for simulations. Unfortunately, the credibility of some attempts was hampered by incomplete reconstruction procedures. We here establish a comprehensive framework resting on high-quality Chinese modern pollen database, including modern pollen data screening, calibration set selection, major climate factor analysis, appropriate model selection, strict statistical assessment of results and ecological interpretation. The application of this framework to three high-resolution pollen records from the eastern Tibetan Plateau allows accurate quantitative inferences of Holocene temperature changes, which is the major control of regional vegetation. The results show that the mean warmest month temperature(MTwa)during the early Holocene was ca. 10.4℃ and reached the highest value at 8.5–6 ka BP(ca. 11℃). The early and mid-Holocene(11–5 ka BP) warmth was followed by 1.2℃ temperature decrease, culminating in the coolest temperatures of the Holocene during the Neoglacial cooling. Superimposing on the general cooling trend, MTwareveals a significant 500-yr periodicity with varying intensities through time, showing that warm(cold) intervals are in phase with solar maxima(minima) periods. This spectral similarity indicates a possible connection of multi-century scale climate fluctuations with solar forcing.

关键词： Approach framework of quantitative reconstruction Tibetan Plateau Holocene temperature changes Periodicity

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Study on the Climate changes Characteristics in the Hilly Region of the Loess Plateau and Its Influence on Agricultural Production

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Meteorological and Environmental Research 2011年第5期2卷 31-34,78页

作者： LIU Zhi-chao,SUN Zhi-hui,CAO Xue-mei,LEI Yan-peng Yan’an Meteorological Bureau,Yan’an 716000,China

[Objective] The aim was to study the climate changes characteristics in the hilly region of the loess plateau and its influence on agricultural production.[Method] Taking Yan’an City as an example,and by dint of temperature and precipitation in nine meteorological stations from 1957 to 2007 and accumulated anomaly curve,linear regression and relevant analysis,the climate changes characteristics in 51 years in Yan’an were expounded.The climate changes in the hilly region of the loess plateau were studied and its influences on agricultural production were concluded.[Result] The characteristics of climate changes in the hilly region were as follow:high temperature in winter and warm winter trend was clearly;the temperature in spring enhanced fast and the drought disaster was increasing worse;rainy days occurred now and then in autumn.The climate changes had different levels of influences on agricultural production in Yan’an City.Because of rising temperature in winter,facility agriculture was vigorously developed and the apple range expanded;in the meantime,because of rising temperature in spring,drought was worsen and sowing in spring can not proceed;constant rain in autumn damaged the quality of date.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the regional agricultural production and agricultural structure adjustment.

关键词： temperature changes temperature Precipitation Agricultural production The hilly region in Loess Plateau China

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