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A Running Average Method for Predicting the Size and Length of a Solar Cycle

Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics 2008年第4期8卷 477-488页

作者： Zhan-Le Du Hua-Ning Wang Li-Yun Zhang National Astronomical Observatories Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100012 China

The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthly mean Group sunspot numbers available since 1610. A running average method is proposed to predict the size and length of a solar cycle by the use of the varying trend of the coefficients. It is found that, when a condition （that the correlation becomes stronger） is satisfied, the mean prediction error （16.1） is much smaller than when the condition is not satisfied （38.7）. This result can be explained by the fact that the prediction must fall on the regression line and increase the strength of the correlation. The method itself can also indicate whether the prediction is reasonable or not. To obtain a reasonable prediction, it is more important to search for a running correlation coefficient whose varying trend satisfies the proposed condition, and the result does not depend so much on the size of the correlation coefficient. As an application, the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 is estimated as 140.4 ± 15.7, and the peak as May 2012 ±11 months.

关键词： sun activity -- sun sunspots - sun general

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The causality between the rapid rotation of a sunspot and an X3.4 flare

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Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics 2009年第5期9卷 596-602页

作者： Xiao-Li Yan Zhong-Quan Qu Cheng-Lin Xu Zhi-Ke Xue De-Fang Kong National Astronomical Observatories/Yunnan Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming 650011 China Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Yunnan Normal University Kunming 650092 China Jiaxing University Jiaxing 314001 China

Using multi-wavelength data of Hinode, the rapid rotation of a sunspot in active region NOAA 10930 is studied in detail. We found extraordinary counterclockwise rotation of the sunspot with positive polarity before an X3.4 flare. From a series of vector magnetograms, it is found that magnetic force lines are highly sheared along the neutral line accompanying the sunspot rotation. Furthermore, it is also found that sheared loops and an inverse S-shaped magnetic loop in the corona formed gradually after the sunspot rotation. The X3.4 flare can be reasonably regarded as a result of this movement. A detailed analysis provides evidence that sunspot rotation leads to magnetic field lines twisting in the photosphere. The twist is then transported into the corona and triggers flares.

关键词： sun sunspots - sun flares - sun magnetic fields

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