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Seasonal Predictions of summer precipitation in the Middle-lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with Global and Regional Models Based on NUIST-CFS1.0

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第9期39卷 1561-1578页

作者： Wushan YING Huiping YAN Jing-Jia LUO Institute for Climate and Application Research(ICAR)/ILCEC Key Laboratory of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Accurate prediction of the summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLYR)is of urgent demand for the local economic and societal development.This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill in predicting summer precipitation over the MLYR region based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST-CFS1.0,previously SINTEX-F).The results show that the model can provide moderate skill in predicting the interannual variations of the MLYR rainbands,initialized from 1 March.In addition,the nine-member ensemble mean can realistically reproduce the links between the MLYR precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies,but the individual members show great discrepancies,indicating large uncertainty in the forecasts.Furthermore,the NUIST-CFS1.0 can predict five of the seven extreme summer precipitation anomalies over the MLYR during 1982-2020,albeit with underestimated magnitudes.The Weather Forecast and Research(WRF)downscaling hindcast experiments with a finer resolution of 30 km,which are forced by the large-scale information of the NUIST-CFS1.0 predictions with a spectral nudging method,display improved predictions of the extreme summer precipitation anomalies to some extent.However,the performance of the downscaling predictions is highly dependent on the global model forecast skill,suggesting that further improvements on both the global and regional climate models are needed.

关键词： seasonal forecast summer precipitation global climate model WRF downscaling

Enhanced Seasonal Predictability of Spring Soil Moisture over the Indo-China Peninsula for Eastern China summer precipitation under Non-ENSO Conditions

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第9期40卷 1632-1648页

作者： Chujie GAO Gen LI College of Oceanography&State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Hohai UniversityNanjing 210024China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China

Seasonal prediction of summer precipitation over eastern China is closely linked to the East Asian monsoon circulation,which is largely affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).In this study,results show that spring soil moisture(SM)over the Indo-China peninsula(ICP)could be a reliable seasonal predictor for eastern China summer precipitation under non-ENSO conditions.When springtime SM anomalies are present over the ICP,they trigger a structured response in summertime precipitation over most of eastern China.The resultant south-to-north,tri-polar configuration of precipitation anomalies has a tendency to yield increased(decreased)precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and decreased(increased)in South and North China with a drier(wetter)spring soil condition in the ICP.The analyses show that ENSO exerts a powerful control on the East Asian circulation system in the ENSO-decaying summer.In the case of ENSO forcing,the seasonal predictability of the ICP spring SM for eastern China summer precipitation is suppressed.However,in the absence of the influence of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies from the preceding winter,the SM anomalies over the ICP induce abnormal local heating and a consequent geopotential height response owing to its sustained control on local temperature,which could,in turn,lead to abnormal eastern China summer precipitation by affecting the East Asian summer monsoon circulation.The present findings provide a better understanding of the complexity of summer climate predictability over eastern China,which is of potential significance for improving the livelihood of the people.

关键词： summer precipitation El Niño-Southern Oscillation soil moisture Indo-China Peninsula eastern China East Asian summer monsoon

Increased southerly and easterly water vapor transport contributed to the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation over the Three-River Headwaters in the Tibetan Plateau

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气候变化研究进展:英文版 2023年第4期14卷 502-510页

作者： Xuan LIU Ming-Xiang YANG Ning-Peng DONG Wei-Ning XIE Hong-Gang LI Zhen GUAN Fan WEN Hao WANG Deliang CHEN College of Civil Engineering Tianjin UniversityTianjin 300354China State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchBeijing 100038China Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety&Hydro Science Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Hainan Province Hainan 571126China Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower INC. Kunming 650214China Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg S-40530Sweden

The Three-River Headwaters(TRH)region in the Tibetan Plateau is vulnerable to climate change;changes in summer(June–August)precipitation have a significant impact on water security and sustainability in both local and downstream areas.However,the changes in summer precipitation of different intensities over the TRH region,along with their influencing factors,remain unclear.In this study,we used observational and ERA5 reanalysis data and employed a precipitation categorization and water vapor budget analysis to quantify the categorized precipitation variations and investigate their possible linkages with the water vapor budget.Our results showed an increasing trend in summer precipitation at a rate of 0.9 per year(pprecipitation’(10 mm d−1)contributed 65.1%of the increased summer precipitation,which occurred frequently in the northern TRH region.The dry-to-wet transition was caused by the effects of varied atmospheric circulations in each subregion.Southwesterly water vapor transport through the southern boundary was responsible for the increased net water vapor flux in the western TRH region(158.2%),while southeasterly water vapor transport through the eastern boundary was responsible for the increased net water vapor flux in the central TRH(155.2%)and eastern TRH(229.2%)regions.Therefore,we inferred that the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation and the increased‘very heavy precipitation’over the TRH was caused by increased easterly and southerly water vapor transport.

关键词： summer precipitation Three-river headwaters region precipitation intensity Water vapor budget

Moisture Sources and Their Contributions to summer precipitation in the East of Southwest China

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2023年第2期29卷 153-167页

作者：李永华黄丁安卢楚翰向波周杰何卷雄 CMA Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy/Chongqing Climate Center Chongqing 401147 China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044 China Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink China Meteorological Administration(ECSS-CMA)Wuxi UniversityWuxiJiangsu 214063 China CAS-TWAS Center of Excellence for Climate and Environment Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Complex topography,special geographical location and sea-land-air interactions lead to high interannual variability of summer precipitation in the east of Southwest China(ESWC).However,the contributions,influencing factors and mechanisms of remote and local evaporation remain to be further investigated.Using clustering analysis and Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory version 5 model,we analyze the contributions of remote moisture transport and local evaporation to summer precipitation in the ESWC and their causes.There are mainly five remote moisture channels in the ESWC,namely the Arabian Sea channel,Bay of Bengal channel,western Pacific channel,Northwest channel 1 and Northwest channel 2.Among the five channels,the western Pacific channel has the largest number of trajectories,while the Bay of Bengal channel has the largest contribution rate of specific humidity(33.33%)and moisture flux(33.14%).The amount of regional average precipitation is close to that of the precipitation caused by remote moisture transport,and both are considerably greater than the rainfall amount caused by local evaporation.However,on interannual time scales,precipitation recirculation rates are negatively correlated to regional average precipitation and precipitation caused by remote moisture transport but are consistent with that caused by local evaporation.An apparent"+-+"wave train can be found on the height anomaly field in East Asia,and the sea surface temperature anomalies are positive in the equatorial Middle-East Pacific,the South China Sea,the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.These phenomena cause southwest-northeast moisture transport with strong updrafts,thereby resulting in more precipitation in the ESWC.

关键词： east of Southwest China summer precipitation moisture sources local evaporation contributions of moisture

Climatic implications in earlywood and latewood width indices of Chinese pine in north central China

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Journal of Forestry Research 2024年第3期35卷 143-153页

作者： Kaixuan Yang Junzhou Zhang Haowen Fan Yuan Yan College of Geographic Sciences Qinghai Normal UniversityXining 810016People's Republic of China Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Land Surface Processes and Ecological Conservation(Ministry of Education) Xining 810016People's Republic of China Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730030People's Republic of China Gansu Liancheng Forest Ecosystem Field Observation and Research Station Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730333People's Republic of China School of Geography and Information Engineering University of GeoscienceWuhan 430074People's Republic of China

Latewood width(LWW)indices of trees are considered a reliable proxy of summer precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere.However,the strong coupling and high correlation between earlywood width(EWW)and LWW indices often prevent registration of climate signals of the LWW index.In this study,328-year-long earlywood width and latewood width chronologies were developed from Chinese pine at two sites in the Hasi Mountains,north central China.The climate responses of these chronologies were analyzed and the LWW index used to derive sum-mer precipitation signals.Correlation analyses showed that LWW was particularly influenced by earlywood growth and recorded stronger climate signals of the previous year as EWW,rather than those of the current year with infrequent summer climate signals.However,after removing the effect of earlywood growth using a simple regression model,the adjusted LWW chronology(LWW_(adj))showed a strong relationship with July precipitation in dry years.This suggests that the LWW_(adj) chronology has the potential to be used to investigate long-term variability in summer precipitation in drought-limited regions.

关键词： Dendroclimatology Latewood width Climate response summer precipitation Earlywood effect

Origin of the spatial consistency of summer precipitation variability between the Mongolian Plateau and the mid-latitude East Asian summer monsoon region

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第8期63卷 1199-1208页

作者： Jie CHEN Wei HUANG Qiong ZHANG Song FENG Key Laboratory of Western China s Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden Department of Geosciences University of ArkansasFayetteville 72701USA

The Mongolian Plateau(MP) is located in the eastern part of arid Central Asia(ACA). Climatically, much of the MP is dominated by the westerly circulation and has an arid and semi-arid climate;however, the eastern part of the MP is also influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) and has a humid and semi-humid climate. Several studies have shown that precipitation variability in the MP differs from that in western ACA but is consistent with that in the EASM region. Here we use monthly precipitation data for 1979–2016 to characterize and determine the origin of the summer precipitation variability of the MP and the EASM region. The results show that the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region exhibit a consistent pattern of precipitation variability on interannual and decadal timescales;specifically, the consistent regions are the MP and North and Northeast China. We further investigated the physical mechanisms responsible for the consistent interdecadal precipitation variability between the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region, and found that the mid-latitude wave train over Eurasia, with positive(negative) geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and ACA and negative(positive) geopotential height anomalies over Europe and the MP, is the key factor responsible for the consistency of precipitation variability in the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region. The positive anomalies over the North Atlantic and ACA and negative anomalies over Europe and the MP would enhance the transport of westerly and monsoon moisture to the MP and North and Northeast China. They could also strengthen the Northeast Asian low, enhance the EASM, and trigger the anomalous ascending motion over the MP which promotes precipitation in the MP and in the mid-latitude EASM region. Overall, our results help explain the spatial variations of paleo-precipitation/humidity reconstructions in East Asia and clarify the reasons for the consistency of the regional climate.

关键词： Mongolian Plateau Mid-latitude EASM region summer precipitation Decadal Consistent variability

Impact of the Anomalous Thawing in the Tibetan Plateau on summer precipitation in China and Its Mechanism

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005年第2期22卷 238-245页

作者：高荣韦志刚董文杰钟海玲 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences START Regional Center for Temperate East Asia Beijing 100029 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research InstituteChinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou 730000 Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou 730000 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences START Regional Center for Temperate East Asia Beijing 100029 National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081

The impact of the anomalous thawing of frozen soil in the late spring on the summer precipitation in China and its possible mechanism are analyzed in the context of the frozen soil thawing date data of the 50 meteorological stations in the Tibetan Plateau, and the NCEP/NCAR monthly average reanalysis data. Results show that the thawing dates of the Tibetan Plateau gradually become earlier from 1980 to 1999, which is consistent with the trend of global warming in the 20th century. Because differences in the thermal capacity and conductivity between frozen and unfrozen soils are larger, changes in the freezing/thawing process of soil may change the physical properties of the underlying surface, thus affecting exchanges of sensible and latent heat between the ground surface and air. The thermal state change of the plateau ground surface must lead to the thermal anomalies of the atmosphere over and around the plateau, and then further to the anomalies of the general atmospheric circulation. A possible mechanism for the impact of the thawing of the plateau on summer (July) precipitation may be as follows. When the frozen soil thaws early (late) in the plateau, the thermal capacity of the ground surface is large (small), and the thermal conductivity is small (large), therefore, the thermal exchanges between the ground surface and the air are weak (strong). The small (large) ground surface sensible and latent heat fluxes lead to a weak (strong) South Asian high, a weak (strong) West Pacific subtropical high and a little to south (north) of its normal position. Correspondingly, the ascending motion is strengthened (weakened) and precipitation increases (decreases) in South China, while in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River, the ascending motion and precipitation show the opposite trend.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau thawing of frozen soil summer precipitation

Cluster analysis on summer precipitation field over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2004

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2008年第3期18卷 295-307页

作者： LU Heli SHAO Quanqin LIU Jiyuan WANG Junbang CHEN Shenbin CHEN Zhuoqi Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China Graduate university of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 China

The summer day-by-day precipitation data of 97 meteorological stations on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2004 were selected to analyze the temporal-spatial distribution through accumulated variance,correlation analysis,regression analysis,empirical orthogonal function,power spectrum function and spatial analysis tools of GIS.The result showed that summer precipitation occupied a relatively high proportion in the area with less annual precipitation on the Plateau and the correlation between summer precipitation and annual precipitation was strong.The altitude of these stations and summer precipitation tendency presented stronger positive correlation below 2000 m,with correlation value up to 0.604（α=0.01）.The subtracting tendency values between 1961-1983 and 1984-2004 at five altitude ranges（2000-2500 m,2500-3000 m,3500-4000 m,4000-4500 m and above 4500 m）were above zero and accounted for 71.4%of the total.Using empirical orthogonal function, summer precipitation could be roughly divided into three precipitation pattern fields：the Southeast Plateau Pattern Field,the Northeast Plateau Pattern field and the Three Rivers＇ Headstream Regions Pattern Field.The former two ones had a reverse value from the north to the south and opposite line was along 35°N.The potential cycles of the three pattern fields were 5.33a,21.33a and 2.17a respectively,tested by the confidence probability of 90%.The station altitudes and summer precipitation potential cycles presented strong negative correlation in the stations above 4500 m,with correlation value of-0.626（α=0.01）.In Three Rivers Headstream Regions summer precipitation cycle decreased as the altitude rose in the stations above 3500 m and increased as the altitude rose in those below 3500 m.The empirical orthogonal function analysis in June precipitation,July precipitation and August precipitation showed that the June precipitation pattern field was similar to the July＇s,in which southern Plateau was positive and northern Plateau negative.But positive value area in July pr

关键词： Qinghai-Tibet Plateau summer precipitation cluster analysis precipitation pattern field precipitation cycle

Numerical Simulation of the Impact of Vegetation Index on the Interannual Variation of summer precipitation in the Yellow River Basin

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005年第6期22卷 865-876页

作者：李伟平薛永康 Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 Department of Geography and Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of California at Los Angeles California USA

Two sets of numerical experiments using the coupled National Center for Environmental Prediction General Circulation Model （NCEP/GCM T42L18） and the Simplified Simple Biosphere land surface scheme （SSiB） were carried out to investigate the climate impacts of fractional vegetation cover （FVC） and leaf area index （LAI） on East Asia summer precipitation, especially in the Yellow River Basin （YRB）. One set employed prescribed FVC and LAI which have no interannual variations based on the climatology of vegetation distribution; the other with FVC and LAI derived from satellite observations of the International Satellite Land Surface Climate Project （ISLSCP） for 1987 and 1988. The simulations of the two experiments were compared to study the influence of FVC, LAI on summer precipitation interannual variation in the YRB. Compared with observations and the NCEP reanalysis data, the experiment that included both the effects of satellite-derived vegetation indexes and sea surface temperature （SST） produced better seasonal and interannual precipitation variations than the experiment with SST but no interannual variations in FVC and LAI, indicating that better representations of the vegetation index and its interannual variation may be important for climate prediction. The difference between 1987 and 1988 indicated that with the increase of FVC and LAI, especially around the YRB, surface albedo decreased, net surface radiation increased, and consequently local evaporation and precipitation intensified. Further more, surface sensible heat flux, surface temperature and its diurnal variation decreased around the YRB in response to more vegetation. The decrease of surface-emitting longwave radiation due to the cooler surface outweighed the decrease of surface solar radiation income with more cloud coverage, thus maintaining the positive anomaly of net surface radiation. Further study indicated that moisture flux variations associated with changes in the general circulation also contributed to the precipitation interannual variati

关键词： numerical simulation vegetation index interannual variation summer precipitation Yellow River basiu