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Will the Historic southeasterly wind over the Equatorial Pacific in March 2022 Trigger a Third-year La Niña Event?

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第1期40卷 6-13页

作者： Xianghui FANG Fei ZHENG Kexin LI Zeng-Zhen HU Hongli REN Jie WU Xingrong CHEN Weiren LAN Yuan YUAN Licheng FENG Qifa CAI Jiang ZHU Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China International Center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAACollege ParkMD 20740USA State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China National Climate Center Beijing 100081China National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081China Mailbox 5111 Beijing 100094China

Based on the updates of the Climate Prediction Center and International Research Institute for Climate and Society(CPC/IRI)and the China Multi-Model Ensemble(CMME)El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)Outlook issued in April 2022,La Niña is favored to continue through the boreal summer and fall,indicating a high possibility of a three-year La Niña(2020-23).It would be the first three-year La Niña since the 1998-2001 event,which is the only observed three-year La Niña event since *** examining the status of air-sea fields over the tropical Pacific in March 2022,it can be seen that while the thermocline depths were near average,the southeasterly wind stress was at its strongest since ***,based on a quaternary linear regression model that includes various relevant air-sea variables over the equatorial Pacific in March,we argue that the historic southeasterly winds over the equatorial Pacific are favorable for the emergence of the third-year La Niña,and both the anomalous easterly and southerly wind stress components are important and contribute~50%of the third-year La Niña growth,***,the possible global climate impacts of this event are discussed.

关键词： El Niño-Southern Oscillation three-year La Niña strongest southeasterly wind air-sea interaction

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