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Trend Analysis and Intervention Effect starting Point Detection of COVID-19 Epidemics Using Recalibrated Time Series Models—Worldwide,2020

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China CDC weekly 2021年第20期3卷 417-422页

作者： Shu Li Chen Chen Shuyin Cao Kejia Hu Hao Lei Xiaolin Xu Qinchuan Wang Changzheng Yuan Sicong Wang Sisi Wang Junlin Jia Yuanqing Ye Xifeng Wu Center of Clinical Big Data and Analytics Second Affiliated Hospital and Department of Big Data Health Science School of Public HealthZhejiang University School of MedicineHangzhouZhejiangChina National Institute for Data Science in Health and Medicine HangzhouZhejiang UniversityZhejiangChina Department of Surgical Oncology Affiliated Sir Run Run Shaw HospitalZhejiang University School of MedicineHangzhouZhejiangChina.

Objective:This study aimed to identify a model for short-term coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)trend prediction and intervention evaluation.Methods:We compared the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model and Holt exponential smoothing(Holt)model on predicting the number of cumulative COVID-19 cases in China.Based on the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)value,the optimal model was selected and further tested using data from the United States,Italy and Republic of Korea.The intervention effect starting time points and abnormal trend changes were detected by observing the pattern of differences between the predicted and real trends.Results:The recalibrated ARIMA model with a 5-day prediction time span has the best model performance with MAPEs ranged between 2%and 5%.The intervention effects started to show on February 7 in the mainland of China,March 5 in Republic of Korea and April 27 in Italy,but have not been detected in the US as of May 19.Temporary abnormal trends were detected in Korea and Italy,but the overall epidemic trends were stable since the effect starting points.Conclusion:The recalibrated ARIMA model can detect the intervention effects starting points and abnormal trend changes;thus to provide valuable information support for epidemic trend analysis and intervention evaluation.

关键词： starting absolute smoothing

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Review of theoretical achievements for starting flow problem for all Mach numbers

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Chinese Journal of Aeronautics 2019年第1期32卷 78-91页

作者： Chenyuan BAI Juan LI Sheng LI Sicheng LI Ziniu WU School of Aerospace Tsinghua University

The typical behavior of unsteady flow and force evolution in a number of applications,such as aero-elastics, gust-wing interaction, flapping flight and flight maneuvering, can be understood using the starting flow model. starting flow model is obtained either by setting rapidly an angle of attack for a wing moving at constant speed, or by accelerating a wing to a constant speed while gaining an angle of attack. In the limiting case of impulsively starting flow, the wing is assumed to gain suddenly an angle of attack in an initially uniform flow. Theories have been developed for impulsively starting flow at small angle of attack long before and at large angle of attack only recently, especially for incompressible and supersonic flow. This paper intends to provide a state-of-art overview of the typical flow phenomena, force evolution characteristics and developed theories for impulsively starting flow at any angle of attack and for both lower speed flow(vortex dominated) and high speed flow(compressible wave dominated). This review also provides some new topics that deserve further studies.

关键词： Shock-shock interaction Shock waves starting flow Unsteady flow Vortex

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Revolution of vitamin E production by starting from microbial fermented farnesene to isophytol

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The Innovation 2022年第3期3卷 73-79页

作者： Ziling Ye Bin Shi Yanglei Huang Tian Ma Zilei Xiang Ben Hu Zhaolin Kuang Man Huang Xiaoying Lin Zhu Tian Zixin Deng Kun Shen Tiangang Liu Key Laboratory of Combinatorial Biosynthesis and Drug Discovery Ministry of Education and School of Pharmaceutical SciencesWuhan UniversityWuhan 430071China J1 Biotech Co. Ltd.Wuhan 430075China

Vitamin E is one of the most widely used vitamins.In the classical commercial synthesis of vitamin E(a-tocopherol),the chemical synthesis of isophytol is the key technical barrier.Here,we establish a new process for isophytol synthesis from microbial fermented farnesene.To achieve an efficient pathway for farnesene production,Saccharomyces cerevisiae was selected as the host strain.First,b-farnesene synthase genes from different sources were screened,and through protein engineering and system metabolic engineering.

关键词： strain synthesis starting

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Global collaboration on Biomaterials is starting with Binational WorkshopseSino-German Workshop on Biomaterials in Beijing 2016

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Bioactive Materials 2017年第1期2卷 51-52页

作者： Frank Witte Mike Barbeck Yufeng Zheng Julius Wolff Institute and Center for Musculoskeletal Surgery Berlin-Brandenburg Center for Regenerative TherapiesCharité-Universitätsmedizin BerlinAugustenburger Platz 113353 BerlinGermany Botiss GmbH Ullsteinstrasse 10812109 BerlinGermany Department of Materials Science and Engineering College of EngineeringPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China

Bioactive Materials is reporting about international events which may promote biomaterial research beyond national borders.In this regard,both countries,Germany and China have become global players in the field of health economy in the last decades.A sino-german platform for life sciences has already been founded in the field of health economy that enables for more cooperative projects between both research and economy from both nations.Thus,many different research projects have already been conducted between both countries.However,cooperation between researchers,clinicians and industry of different disciplines and fields is especially essential for the progress in biomaterial research and related products.Chemists,material scientists,biologists and physicians amongst many others are participating in this research field and are ambitious to find mutual solutions for the regeneration of various tissues.This collaborative research and the markets for biomedical products become more and more global and,thus,programs to sustained established cooperative research are desirable.

关键词： sustained starting mutual

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Commentary on: “Scientific evidence is just the starting point:A generalizable process for developing sports injury prevention interventions” by Alex Donaldson et al.

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Journal of Sport and Health Science 2016年第3期5卷 322-323页

作者： Eva Ageberg Department of Health Sciences Lund University

In a recent paper,Donaldson et al.~1 argued that lower extremity injuries can be prevented.Evidence-based sports injury preventive exercise programs usually have limited impact on public health because they are not widely adopted or sustained into regular training routines.One reason for this is that the intervention program may not seem relevant for the

关键词： sports Commentary on sustained exercise extremity starting injuries prevention preventive programs

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Beyond familial risk: deriving risk-adapted starting ages of screening among people with a family history of colorectal cancer

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Cancer Communications 2023年第12期43卷 1377-1380页

作者： Xuechen Chen Thomas Heisser Rafael Cardoso Julia Hibbert Michael Hoffmeister Hermann Brenner Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) Heidelberg Germany Medical Faculty Heidelberg Heidelberg University Heidelberg Germany Division of Preventive Oncology German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) and National Center for Tumor Diseases (NCT) Heidelberg Germany German Cancer Consortium (DKTK) German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) Heidelberg Germany

Dear Editor,Colorectal cancer(CRC)is the third most common cancer globally[1],even though a large proportion of those cancers would be preventable by screening.Among those with a family history(FH)of CRC,it is commonly recommended to start screening at younger ages,e.g.,at age 40 or 10 years younger than the age at diagnosis of the youngest affected first-degree relative[2–5].Even within the group of those with a FH,risk of CRC is not homogeneous and depends on factors such as the number of affected relatives and the age at which the relatives were diagnosed with CRC[6,7],lifestyles,and genetic background profiles.However,these metrics except genetic factors may change over lifetime,which limits their use for defining starting ages of screening.The aim of this study was to evaluate whether a polygenic risk score(PRS),which combines information from CRC-related risk variants[8]and genetically determined sex(2 constant and established CRC risk factors),could effectively contribute to enhanced risk stratification.We also aimed to determine if it could assist in defining risk-adapted starting ages for CRC screening,even in individuals with a FH of CRC.The assessment was performed using the wellestablished metric of risk advancement periods(RAPs)[9],which measures the impact of an exposure on the relation of age to disease.

关键词： starting adapted younger

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Beijing 2022:A New starting Point

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China Today 2022年第1期71卷 44-47页

作者： ADRIANO MADARO 不详

With the upcoming Beijing 2022,a craze for winter sports is on the rise in China.Beijing 2022,the 24th Olympic Winter Games,is to be held from February 4 to 20,2022.It will be both a new testimony to China’s progress... 详细信息

关键词： China. winter starting

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starting a New Phase of Economic Reform in China

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Qiu Shi 2019年第1期11卷 20-28页

作者： CPC Leadership Group of the National Development and Reform Commission 不详

China's reform and opening up has already been surging forward for four decades since its launch at the Third Plenary Session of the 11th CPC Central Committee in late 1978. In these four decades, economic reform has grown in breadth, depth, and intensity gradually spread from rural to urban areas, from establishing special economic zones to steadily opening up the interior, from vigorously promoting reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to consistently furthering administrative reform, and from successfully acceding to the World Trade Organization (WTO) to actively participating in global economic governance. Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC in 2012, China has made economic reform the focus of comprehensively deepening reform, and thus reform has made progress on all fronts, achieved numerous breakthroughs, and driven deeper.

关键词： starting Economic Reform China

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追求卓越的早期教育质量--OECD早期保教质量调查报告“starting StrongⅢ”述评

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外国教育研究 2013年第6期40卷 11-16页

作者：周玉娥刘智成湖北师范学院音乐学院.湖北黄石435002 南京师范大学教育科学学院江苏南京210097

早期教育质量的影响因素是多方面的,OECD成员国在提高早期教育质量方面作了许多积极探索,starting StrongⅢ就是在广泛调研基础上形成的一份聚焦质量的报告。通过探讨starting StrongⅢ的形成背景,进而分析其五个与早期教育质量密切相... 详细信息

早期教育质量的影响因素是多方面的,OECD成员国在提高早期教育质量方面作了许多积极探索,starting StrongⅢ就是在广泛调研基础上形成的一份聚焦质量的报告。通过探讨starting StrongⅢ的形成背景,进而分析其五个与早期教育质量密切相关的重要政策杠杆,能为思考我国学前教育发展提供些许启示。

关键词：早期教育和保育质量 starting StrongⅢ

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Revisiting the benchmark problem of starting control of combustion engines

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Control Theory and Technology 2019年第2期17卷 148-155页

作者： Jiangyan ZHANG Zhenhui XU Jinwu GAO State Key Laboratory of Automotive Simulation and Control Changchun Jilin 130025China Department of Control Science and Engineering Jilin UniversityChangchun Jilin 130025China Col lege of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering Dalian Minzu UniversityDalian Liaoning 116600China Department of Engineering and Applied Sciences Sophia UniversityTokyo102-8554Japan

starting of combustion engines is a typical transient operating mode that has sigrdficant influence to the engine performance.Due to the distinct variations in the pathes of air intake and fuel injection,the model of the engine system contains considerable uncertain parameters.To search effective control schemes that guarantee desired performance,engine starting control is proposed as a benchmark challenge problem.As a challenging result,a model-based control scheme is developed perviously.In this work,the benchmark problem is revisited and a modification for the fuel injection path control of the previous work is proposed by integrating a time sequence regressive based parameter tuning strategy.Validation by the benchmark problem simulator shows that although the new strategy has simple structure,similar control performance is obtained.Especially,the new strategy has potential extensibility with learning based methods to further improve the performance of the benchmark problem on engine starting control.

关键词： Combustion engine starting control transient performance benchmark challenging

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